AJgoal Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 My understanding of ZE tracking data is that it is typically done by one or two fans per team. Jess Schmidt (@2_for_slashing) is one of the individuals who does it for the Flyers. From reading her twitter account, she watches replays of each game to nail down the data she compiles. I'd hazard a guess that teams do this as well. The main potential issue I see with ZE data is that it could be quite subjective from person to person (who is responsible for a opponent's successful entry if he goes between two defensemen?), however, over large sample sets the subjectivity should be minimized enough to be able to evaluate trends in the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The point I was trying to make is that there are also "official" NHL stats that have a high amount of subjectivity in them and are not 100% accurate. There is human interpretation in it. Your description of some guy sitting on his couch with a bowl of nachos sounds more like a regular fan than a person dedicated enough to the game of hockey and the importance of statistics to actually track them for all teams. That goes back to my question, who is tracking zone entries (and Corsi for that matter). The league has people tracking stats for every team, every game. Is someone, somewhere actually doing that for zone entries? Every shift, every team, every game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJgoal Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Corsi is a compilation of stats tracked by the NHL, which is why it's readily available. ZE data is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 That goes back to my question, who is tracking zone entries (and Corsi for that matter). The league has people tracking stats for every team, every game. Is someone, somewhere actually doing that for zone entries? Every shift, every team, every game? I guess ZE is by fans, as @AJgoal mentions. I'm just challenging your assumption that because a person not affiliated with the NHL tracks the data, it is somehow less reliable. Hits are tracked by the NHL, and are as subjective as they come. Yet they are the best we have, so we use them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I guess ZE is by fans, as @AJgoal mentions. I'm just challenging your assumption that because a person not affiliated with the NHL tracks the data, it is somehow less reliable. Hits are tracked by the NHL, and are as subjective as they come. Yet they are the best we have, so we use them. It's not so much that the person is not affiliated with the NHL, it's that the person is not a professional. There's no vetting process, no quality control. Just some fan somewhere (many fans, in many somewheres) saying "trust me, I know what I'm doing and I'm reliable". I'm not saying that makes the stats worthless, but for me it requires the addition of a few more grains of salt. If you're fine with it, no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I was referring to zone entries with regard to advanced stats, not shot blocking. When I said "gives up the blue line" I wasn't using "advanced stats" - I am watching how he plays the game. He gives up the blue line more often than not. I don't know if there are "stats" to back that up. That's what I see. And the number of shots he allows (MacDonald led the league in shot blocks last year, which was something that was cited ad infinitum as a "reason" to re-sign him) and his minus 22 last season seems to back up that correlation. I don't claim that that's a consistent indicator over the rest of the league. I'm saying that when a guy is leading the league by 30, 40, 60 shot attempts (as MacD did over the 2, 3 and 4 shot blockers last season) that it can be an indication that the "eye test" is correct. And in this case I think it is. You mention "grains of salt" and that is exactly what I am talking about. The "grains of salt" are the specifics of the situation. If a goalie has a GAA more than 1 higher than the rest of the league, I think that says something about the player. Likewise, if a guy averages significantly more turnovers, take aways, faceoff wins/losses, assists or goals - for example - than the rest of the league I think that says something about the player. YMMV, but don't confuse analysis of one player with a blanket statement about all players and all things. It isn't. Personally I would trust the league more than some guy sitting on his couch with a bowl of nachos... Hey, Mike York played in this league! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJgoal Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It's not so much that the person is not affiliated with the NHL, it's that the person is not a professional. There's no vetting process, no quality control. I thought we were talking about stats, not NHL officiating Honestly, I agree. Looking at ZE data is fine, and probably fairly reliable, but salt is needed. You're also probably better served looking at it by team, not comparing across teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It's not so much that the person is not affiliated with the NHL, it's that the person is not a professional. There's no vetting process, no quality control. I agree. There should definitely be quality control - and it's probably headed there but it will take some time. The only thing worse than making bad interpretations of good data is making good interpretations of bad data. On the point of 'professionals', though, what does this say about the league's 'professionals'? https://twitter.com/acthomasca/status/544268221663432706/photo/1 This is an analysis of poor data collection from NHL 'professionals'. The analyst is a fan, yes. But he's also a professor of statistics at Carnegie Mellon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 When I said "gives up the blue line" I wasn't using "advanced stats" - I am watching how he plays the game. He gives up the blue line more often than not. I don't know if there are "stats" to back that up. That's what I see. And the number of shots he allows (MacDonald led the league in shot blocks last year, which was something that was cited ad infinitum as a "reason" to re-sign him) and his minus 22 last season seems to back up that correlation. I don't claim that that's a consistent indicator over the rest of the league. I'm saying that when a guy is leading the league by 30, 40, 60 shot attempts (as MacD did over the 2, 3 and 4 shot blockers last season) that it can be an indication that the "eye test" is correct. And in this case I think it is. You mention "grains of salt" and that is exactly what I am talking about. The "grains of salt" are the specifics of the situation. If a goalie has a GAA more than 1 higher than the rest of the league, I think that says something about the player. Likewise, if a guy averages significantly more turnovers, take aways, faceoff wins/losses, assists or goals - for example - than the rest of the league I think that says something about the player. YMMV, but don't confuse analysis of one player with a blanket statement about all players and all things. It isn't. Ok, but I'm not sure how this turned into another Andy MacDonald debate. You and I have been there, done that. Obviously I should never have even mentioned blocked shots. I take it back. My revised statement is: "I don't think you can trade both Grossman and Schenn because they are the only two physical, crease-clearing type defenseman the team has. Until Morin arrives." Hey, Mike York played in this league! EXACTLY. For all we know Nacho Man is sitting at home with a big bowl compiling zone entry stats. Is that what we really want? I think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On the point of 'professionals', though, what does this say about the league's 'professionals'? Not much apparently. I think it also says a lot about the nature of the game, once you get beyond the easy stuff (goals, assists) things aren't always cut and dried. Which is why I prefer the good old eye test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 once you get beyond the easy stuff (goals, assists) things aren't always cut and dried. As I mentioned before, even some assists are phantom in this league. For all we know Nacho Man is sitting at home with a big bowl compiling zone entry stats. Is that what we really want? I think not. I'm pretty sure you're being facetious But in case you're not, I really don't see the correlation between eating nachos and bad stats. Have you seen what arena rats (reporters, journalists, announcers, statisticians, etc) eat?? I worked in an NHL arena for 3 years directly adjacent to the broadcast booth, and let me tell you, they are some of the unhealthiest people I've met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 As I mentioned before, even some assists are phantom in this league. I'm pretty sure you're being facetious But in case you're not, I really don't see the correlation between eating nachos and bad stats. Have you seen what arena rats (reporters, journalists, announcers, statisticians, etc) eat?? I worked in an NHL arena for 3 years directly adjacent to the broadcast booth, and let me tell you, they are some of the unhealthiest people I've met. Ok. I also retract my snide comments about people who eat nachos. I happen to love a good bowl of nachos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Ok. I also retract my snide comments about people who eat nachos. I happen to love a good bowl of nachos. I remember the South Park episode where the best World of Warcraft player in the world was super revered in online circles, untouchable, undefeatable, and when they showed a clip of who he was, it's some chunky dude sittin' on his mom's couch chowing down on nachos and playing WoW. Brilliant episode! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idahophilly Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 I thought we were talking about stats, not NHL officiating I thought my topic was about short term predictions. Fascinating how it migrated rapidly to end of year predictions then to the draft and now Corsi and ZE stats. I don't care per say. Just that its interesting to see where a topic goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I thought my topic was about short term predictions. Fascinating how it migrated rapidly to end of year predictions then to the draft and now Corsi and ZE stats. I don't care per say. Just that its interesting to see where a topic goes... Are you trying to say we can't stay on topic??? To bring it back full circle, I think our team is too good to finish in the McDavid sweeps. I could see something similar to last year, but just outside of the playoffs. So we'd end up with the 11-13th pick kinda thing. In that range, you've got guys like Jansen Harkins ©, Jeremy Roy (D), Daniel Sprong (RW), Kyle Connor ©, Travis Konecny ©, Mikko Rantanen (RW). Don't know a thing about them - anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idahophilly Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Are you trying to say we can't stay on topic??? Yes, but have at it. It's been interesting to say the least. I have no clue on those mid 1st round picks you mentioned. Anyone else know since that is our likely target range at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJgoal Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I predict that the Flyers will finish outside of the playoffs, around the 7-9 range, and still miraculously end up with the 1st overall pick. Snider will fire Hextall for missing the playoffs and re-instate Clarke, who will trade the pick for Dion Phaneuf. Well, everything up to the word "range," at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idahophilly Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 I predict that the Flyers will finish outside of the playoffs, around the 7-9 range, and still miraculously end up with the 1st overall pick. Snider will fire Hextall for missing the playoffs and re-instate Clarke, who will trade the pick for Dion Phaneuf. Well, everything up to the word "range," at least. I gotta tell you, it wouldn't surprise me. I'd shake my head and go back to doing whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 See, I disagree. When I see a guy who gives up the blue line on a regular basis and has trouble clearing the zone - but has a high number of shot blocks - I think that there is likely a correlation there (as @brelic said). And that is, in fact, what I've seen.Completely agree has anyone witnessed him skating towards the puck carrier??? I bet he wins the team's best backwards skater hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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