radoran Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Neither are Polaris and am I. Fixed it for you I just don't see why it's so hard to distinguish between the guy now and the guy 3-4 years ago. Saying he's not worth a 2nd+ now has absolutely nothing to do with the career he's had. He wasn't worth a second rounder - even if it is a late second rounder. But GMs make these sort of moves all the time. Why? I have no idea. I agree with me rux that he shouldn't have come back at all. If the Flyers were in a serious playoff chase, it might have made sense for him to rejoin the Flyers, but for another team to give up future assets for a questionable short term gain was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Saying he's not worth a 2nd+ now has absolutely nothing to do with the career he's had I can only speak for myself, and IMO, it has less to do with overvaluing Timonen and more about overvaluing a 2nd rounder. Like I said, you have a 1 in 5 chance of getting a player who will play 150 games or more. And closer to a 1 in 10 or 12 chance of that player actually being an impact player. So basically 3 of the 30 2nd round picks will be impact players. As much as I was upset about Homer giving away a 2nd rounder for MacDonald, 2nd rounders have a very very low chance of success. I was upset more because we give them away every year like a door prize, so chances are we would have hit on something decent by now if we had actually kept our picks For Chicago, they've 24 2nd round picks since the year 2000. Yes, 24 in 15 drafts. Only TWO of those years, they did not have a 2nd rounder. They can afford to give one away at take a risk, without adversely affecting the future of the team. Of those 24 picks, 5 have played more than 150 games. So, roughly 20%, like I said. Of those, 3 have been high impact players - Keith, Crawford, and Saad. So 12.5%. For the Flyers, they've had 7 2nd round picks over the same period. 7 picks in 15 years, going without a 2nd rounder in 10 of those years. Only one of them - Nodl - has played more than 150 games. So a 14% success rate. Yeah, Chicago's gonna be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Probably worth saying but, to me at least, you guys aren't coming across that you are. My only thought is that we haven't gotten Polaris' post on the value of the Coburn trade... There's a reason Polaris chose to post about Timonen, and IMO it's related to his ongoing obsession with the player Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polaris922 Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 My only thought is that we haven't gotten Polaris' post on the value of the Coburn trade...There's a reason Polaris chose to post about Timonen, and IMO it's related to his ongoing obsession with the player I said at the time Coburn and Gudas is like trading apples. Not much to see either way. And since neither has played since the trade... Oh wait... I'll do it now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B21 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Fixed it for you He wasn't worth a second rounder - even if it is a late second rounder. But GMs make these sort of moves all the time. Why? I have no idea. I agree with me rux that he shouldn't have come back at all. If the Flyers were in a serious playoff chase, it might have made sense for him to rejoin the Flyers, but for another team to give up future assets for a questionable short term gain was ridiculous. I would have just "Agreed" but I reached my quota for the day. I'm feeling the love in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polaris922 Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 @radoranDone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 I said at the time Coburn and Gudas is like trading apples. Except for the big, juicy 1st rounder we got too And are you seriously comparing Coburn and Gudas, and saying they're the same player? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B21 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 I can only speak for myself, and IMO, it has less to do with overvaluing Timonen and more about overvaluing a 2nd rounder. Like I said, you have a 1 in 5 chance of getting a player who will play 150 games or more. And closer to a 1 in 10 or 12 chance of that player actually being an impact player. So basically 3 of the 30 2nd round picks will be impact players. As much as I was upset about Homer giving away a 2nd rounder for MacDonald, 2nd rounders have a very very low chance of success. I was upset more because we give them away every year like a door prize, so chances are we would have hit on something decent by now if we had actually kept our picks For Chicago, they've 24 2nd round picks since the year 2000. Yes, 24 in 15 drafts. Only TWO of those years, they did not have a 2nd rounder. They can afford to give one away at take a risk, without adversely affecting the future of the team. Of those 24 picks, 5 have played more than 150 games. So, roughly 20%, like I said. Of those, 3 have been high impact players - Keith, Crawford, and Saad. So 12.5%. For the Flyers, they've had 7 2nd round picks over the same period. 7 picks in 15 years, going without a 2nd rounder in 10 of those years. Only one of them - Nodl - has played more than 150 games. So a 14% success rate. Yeah, Chicago's gonna be ok. @flyercanuck is going to yell at you for that. Don't forget - it's and 2nd and 4th that could turn into a 3rd or even another 2nd depending on how the Hawks do. For a team that found Brandon Saad, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford (and to a lesser extent role players like Bryan Bickell and Dave Bolland) in the 2nd round and players like Niklas Hjalmarson in the 4th - those picks are important. Even more important moving forward when low price talent becomes even more valuable when the new contracts for Kane and Toews kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Don't forget - it's and 2nd and 4th that could turn into a 3rd or even another 2nd depending on how the Hawks do. Yes, if that happens and Timonen was a non-factor, it becomes a pricier trade from the Hawks standpoint. And less justifiable. For a team that found Brandon Saad, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford (and to a lesser extent role players like Bryan Bickell and Dave Bolland) in the 2nd round and players like Niklas Hjalmarson in the 4th - those picks are important. Completely agree! I'm just saying that after having 24 2nd rounders in 15 years, giving one away for a pipe dream is not going to adversely affect their team going forward. They have a strong draft history, a solid core, and a good development model. For the Hawks, in this particular instance, passing off a 2nd rounder for only the third time in 16 years, I don't think they;re gonna lose sleep over it either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 @flyercanuck is going to yell at you for that. Don't forget - it's and 2nd and 4th that could turn into a 3rd or even another 2nd depending on how the Hawks do. For a team that found Brandon Saad, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford (and to a lesser extent role players like Bryan Bickell and Dave Bolland) in the 2nd round and players like Niklas Hjalmarson in the 4th - those picks are important. Even more important moving forward when low price talent becomes even more valuable when the new contracts for Kane and Toews kick in. The reasoning behind this trade (from Chicago's perspective) has been discussed ad-nauseum... but here it is one more time. The Hawks window is closing fast. They are facing a big cap crunch. There is no draft pick that is going to help them win the Cup THIS YEAR. That's what it's about for them, it really is that simple. They traded for Timonen because their bottom pair (Rozsival and Runblad) aren't reliable (according to the majority of Hawks fans that I've seen offer an opinion). It was a risk and Stan Bowman knew that. The answer to whether it was a good risk or not will come in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJgoal Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Yes, if that happens and Timonen was a non-factor, it becomes a pricier trade from the Hawks standpoint. And less justifiable. Completely agree! I'm just saying that after having 24 2nd rounders in 15 years, giving one away for a pipe dream is not going to adversely affect their team going forward. They have a strong draft history, a solid core, and a good development model. For the Hawks, in this particular instance, passing off a 2nd rounder for only the third time in 16 years, I don't think they;re gonna lose sleep over it either way.I doubt they'll care if it becomes the second 2nd, since there's a good chance they won the cup in that case. And he would have had some contribution to that, since he has to play in 50% or more of the games, as well. They also have the seventh-ranked farm system out there, so even with Teravainen making the jump to the Hawks, they have plenty of young, cheap talent that can still come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B21 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 The reasoning behind this trade (from Chicago's perspective) has been discussed ad-nauseum... but here it is one more time. The Hawks window is closing fast. They are facing a big cap crunch. There is no draft pick that is going to help them win the Cup THIS YEAR. That's what it's about for them, it really is that simple. They traded for Timonen because their bottom pair (Rozsival and Runblad) aren't reliable (according to the majority of Hawks fans that I've seen offer an opinion). It was a risk and Stan Bowman knew that. The answer to whether it was a good risk or not will come in the playoffs. And as I have discussed ad-nauseum, I get what they were doing. I even get why they went for Timonen. I just think they gave up more than a player in his situation was worth and so far the facts bear that out. Injured twice. -3. No points. Minimal PP time. Almost no PK time. And - FWIW - the Flyers fans who have taken issue with Polaris and I have not even broached the topic from the Hawks perspective. It's all about how dare we say anything even remotely negative about Timonen. That's obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B21 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 They also have the seventh-ranked farm system out there, so even with Teravainen making the jump to the Hawks, they have plenty of young, cheap talent that can still come up. And plenty of players getting big raises next year (Kane, Toews) and plenty more due for big raises in the near future (Saad, Seabrook). No such thing as too much young, cheap talent. Ask the Pens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 And - FWIW - the Flyers fans who have taken issue with Polaris and I have not even broached the topic from the Hawks perspective. It's all about how dare we say anything even remotely negative about Timonen. That's obvious. Oh, re-he-he-he-he-he-heally?? I'd venture to guess that more deadline acquisitions flame out than positively contribute to team success.As the forum's resident Finnophile and a Timonen fan since before he was a Flyer, I'm happy with the return on an asset which was spent in Philadelphia.If I was a Blackhawks fan I wouldn't have liked the deal in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polaris922 Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Actually... It was about giving Hextall props for the vision to not just win the trade, but with Timonen announcing retirement, being injured, and next to useless on the ice, win it handily. It gets deflected too much debating old loyalties and past accomplishments rather than facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B21 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Oh, re-he-he-he-he-he-heally?? OK - none of the #butthurt ( ) Flyers fans who have taken issue with Polaris and I have not even broached the topic from the Hawks perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Actually... It was about giving Hextall props for the vision to not just win the trade, but with Timonen announcing retirement, being injured, and next to useless on the ice, win it handily. It was inevitable after buying so much snake oil under Homer that we'd find our very own snake oil salesman He's sold two vials so far. Do you guys want some? It's fast acting and long-lasting. Just not in the way you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 And as I have discussed ad-nauseum, I get what they were doing. I even get why they went for Timonen. I just think they gave up more than a player in his situation was worth and so far the facts bear that out. Injured twice. -3. No points. Minimal PP time. Almost no PK time His worth is relative to the team's situation. If he helps them win the Cup it's a small price to pay. Obviously, at the deadline he was worth a lot more to a team like Chicago than to a team like Buffalo. And they don't really need him on the PK, they need him more on the PP, in the playoffs. They also don't need him to put up impressive offensive numbers. They got him to be a smart, reliable 3rd pairing guy. In the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B21 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 His worth is relative to the team's situation. If he helps them win the Cup it's a small price to pay. Obviously, at the deadline he was worth a lot more to a team like Chicago than to a team like Buffalo. And they don't really need him on the PK, they need him more on the PP, in the playoffs. They also don't need him to put up impressive offensive numbers. They got him to be a smart, reliable 3rd pairing guy. In the playoffs. And that is where I disagree. A 2nd and at least a 4th is too much for a smart, reliable (40 year old coming off a year-long layoff) 3rd pairing guy. The reliable part is already questionable as he's been injured twice (which is not shocking for a 40 year old coming off a year-long layoff). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 And that is where I disagree. A 2nd and at least a 4th is too much for a smart, reliable (40 year old coming off a year-long layoff) 3rd pairing guy. The reliable part is already questionable as he's been injured twice (which is not shocking for a 40 year old coming off a year-long layoff). And if the Hawks win the Cup it won't be too much. From the Hawks perspective, which is all that matters. From the Flyers perspective it was a good trade from the instant it was made. Anything would have been a good trade regardless of how much or how well Timonen plays for Chicago. The Flyers weren't going anywhere this year and Timonen was retiring after this season. Everyone knew all of that. Anything they could get for him was a win. So there's literally no point to this thread, at least not here in the Flyers forum. We all knew it was good for the Flyers when it happened. On the other hand, if the point is to critique what Timonen has or has not done with the Hawks, then it belongs in the Hawks forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 So there's literally no point to this thread, at least not here in the Flyers forum. We all knew it was good for the Flyers when it happened. On the other hand, if the point is to critique what Timonen has or has not done with the Hawks, then it belongs in the Hawks forum. Moving to the "trades" forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B21 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Moving to the "trades" forum... Agree. (I've reached my quota.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B21 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 And if the Hawks win the Cup it won't be too much. From the Hawks perspective, which is all that matters. If - and it's a big if right now - Timonen has any impact. Otherwise, it's a 2nd+ they traded for no reason as they would have won the Cup with or without him. From the Flyers perspective it was a good trade from the instant it was made. Which I've not once disputed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polaris922 Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 As stated in the original post and again since then, it was about grading Hextall's move as a GM. It's tough dealing a popular player, especially near retirement, let alone with the health question if returning after a long layoff. If I were writing a thread to do nothing but hammer at Timonen, I would've done so in the Penguins forum where it wouldn't be perceived as trolling Timonen fans. I thought about where it should go, and because of my focus being success for HEXTALL not so much failure for Timonen, I felt it was more appropriate in the Flyers forum. I made the mistake of thinking the trade was old enough now and lopsided enough that I'd be viewed as critiquing the move, not the player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 If I were writing a thread to do nothing but hammer at Timonen I certainly don't think you were trying to "do nothing but hammer Timonen" I just don't think you would have created the thread about any other player in a similar situation. Chris Stewart to the Wild for a 2nd, for example.Zidlicky to Detroit for a 3rd and conditional 5th.Leopold to the Wild for a player and a pick.Cole and a conditional 3rd for two players and a 2nd.Glencross to the Caps for a 2nd and 3rd.Fleischmann for Heatly and a 3rd.Jagr to Florida for a 2nd and conditional 3rd.Sekera for a player and a 1st. What was it, do you think, about the Timonen deal that captured your attention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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