Jump to content

When NHL Players Peak (News article)

JackStraw

By JackStraw
in General Hockey

Recommended Posts

JackStraw Newbie

JackStraw

Posted
Posted

Pretty interesting read:

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054

 

Some excerpts:

 

Brander's team also found that forwards:

  • Improve more quickly than they decline and typically begin "a significant decline in their early 30s."
  • Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 32 years old.
  • 25 is their most common age, with 24-27 very similar.

Defencemen, the co-authors report:

  • Improve and decline more slowly than forwards and do so very symmetrically.
  • Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 34 years old (two years longer than forwards).
  • 26 is their most common age, with 25 and 27 very similar.

For goalies, they found that:

  • Performance varies little by age.
  • At every age between 20 and 37, their save percentage is between 90 per cent and a tiny fraction over 91 per cent.
  • 28 is their most common age, with 26-29 very similar.

"Elite players improve faster initially, continue to improve for slightly longer and experience slower age-related decline," according to Brander. "They do not experience a major drop-off in performance until their late 30s."

 

For forwards especially, another key metric that Brander analyzed was players' plus-minus number. In the NHL, plus-minus for a player compares the number of goals scored by his team when he's on the ice versus the goals scored by his opponents.

NHL forwards are at peak performance for this metric from age 23 to 25 and 23 to 30 for elite forwards. As the graph below shows, on average, forwards have a negative plus-minus until they are 22, positive from 23 to 29 and then it turns negative again in their 30s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
radoran Grand Master

radoran

Posted
Posted

For forwards especially, another key metric that Brander analyzed was players' plus-minus number. In the NHL, plus-minus for a player compares the number of goals scored by his team when he's on the ice versus the goals scored by his opponents.

NHL forwards are at peak performance for this metric from age 23 to 25 and 23 to 30 for elite forwards. As the graph below shows, on average, forwards have a negative plus-minus until they are 22, positive from 23 to 29 and then it turns negative again in their 30s.

 

I gotta agree with Pods here. I have never thought of plus/minus as a "key metric" for forwards.

 

That said, using it as they have it is a pretty good reflection on Couturier's defensive ability as he has one "minus" season and is +15 for his career at 22.

 

The rest of it is pretty interesting stuff. Confirms a lot of conventional wisdom - especially that defencemen's games mature slower, but have a longer effective shelf life.

 


forwards:

Improve more quickly than they decline and typically begin "a significant decline in their early 30s."

 

This perhaps throws some more light onto the Hartnell move. Assuming he actually experiences a "significant decline" over the next few years.

 

As it is, he showed a uptick after the trade. #changeofsecenery #kickinthepants

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JackStraw Newbie

JackStraw

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I gotta agree with Pods here. I have never thought of plus/minus as a "key metric" for forwards.

 

Mr P can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you might have missed some sarcastic intent there. Understandable since he DIDN'T USE AN EMOTICON.   :angry:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
radoran Grand Master

radoran

Posted
Posted

Mr P can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you might have missed some sarcastic intent there. Understandable since he DIDN'T USE AN EMOTICON.   :angry:

 

No, he had the :ph34r: on there. I just didn't apply it to the entire post.

 

I don't recall Pods being a big advocate of +/-, but I might be wrong :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Podein25 Proficient

Podein25

Posted
Posted

No, he had the :ph34r: on there. I just didn't apply it to the entire post.

I don't recall Pods being a big advocate of +/-, but I might be wrong :)

Yeah I was being sarcastic but put just the one ninja at the end. Sorry.

I'm not so much an advocate of plus/minus as I am annoyed at how it gets dismissed as "useless" by people who have never taken the time to understand the valuable role it played as an imperfect proxy to judge players. It tells me that they've never played hockey.

When I was little I was very big on plus minus. I was proud to be a plus player. It meant I was a good 5-on-5 player, a 200 foot player. It was one of the ways I measured my worth vis-a-vis other more skilled players. But my coaches didn't need to track it to know who to put out in the last minute of a tight game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
radoran Grand Master

radoran

Posted
Posted

I'm not so much an advocate of plus/minus as I am annoyed at how it gets dismissed as "useless" by people who have never taken the time to understand the valuable role it played as an imperfect proxy to judge players.

 

Well, that's pretty much where I come from - I just don't see it as a "key metric" for forwards. An "imperfect proxy"? Perfect.

 

Like any stat, it is how it is applied. Not to rehash the various discussions, but, oh heck:

 

I think for defensemen it is a good marker. A 1 goal, +22 player, for example, like Marc Methot in OTT (47 games) would indicate something of a responsible defensive player. I think by comparison, Karlsson's 21-goals (15es), +7 this year raises some questions that his career -19 and 20-goal, -15 last year might confirm. He's definitely more of an "offensive defenseman". Also, too, Brent "69 points, -9" Burns in San Jose.

 

Other times it can be a reflection of a terrible team. Yandle's -32 in Arizona (63 games) vs. his +6 with the Rangers (21 games), for example. OEL was -18 for the Coyotes as well. Jeff Petry was -25 in 59 games for EDM, but -3 in 19 for the Habs ("on pace" for -13 in a 82-game season instead of -35 as he was in EDM).

 

Essentially, if your goalie can't stop a beach ball, you're probably not going to have a good +/- no matter how good a "defensive" player you are.

 

I think for forwards it's a little more complex. Obviously Ovechkin's infamous 51 goal, -35 season was a terrific example of a forward without much defensive responsibility and his 50-goal +10 this year showed improvement in that area. I still don't think he would be considered a "strong defensive forward" despite being a "plus" player. But he definitely improved that side of the game. I think your note about "pride" certainly played a role in shifting OV's focus.

 

Oddly enough, OV had a better +/- this season than Tavares (+5) or Crosby (+5) did. I think most people would say that Tavares is by far a better "defensive forward" than Overchicken, but this "key metric" seems to fly in the face of that.

 

My perspective goes back to when Lindros and LeClair were dominating the league's +/- numbers more through offensive pressure than "defensive acumen." Crosby's +10(+) in 7 of the past 8 seasons, for example - not that Crosby isn't a "responsible" defensive forward, but again this "key metric" doesn't really show that.

 

That said, Kessel (-34), Bozak (-34) and JVR (-33) certainly earned their numbers. :D

 

I just don't see how a number that subjective can be a "key metric" for judging a player's growth and decline.

 

An "imperfect proxy"? Again - perfect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
radoran Grand Master

radoran

Posted
Posted

what I found interesting is the graph, that there appears to be a clear trend regarding age and +/-, at least for forwards.

 

Yeah, I do wonder about external factors. Are players "playing out the string" on "lesser" teams at that point in their careers, for example?

 

Sure, often vets are trying to hook on with successful franchises, but you do have the Brian Giontas of the world in Buffalo. Gionta was a +65 for his career coming into the season and put up his first double digit minus (-13) and only his third minus season at age 35. Jiri Tlusty was a career plus player before putting up a -17 (his first double digit minus since his first NHL season and only the second "minus" season of his career) with Carolina at 36 this season.

 

When I see a guy like Yandle go from a -32 player on one team to a +6 on another in the same season there are (IMO) obviously more factors at work than just the player's defensive acumen.

 

Not at all saying the trend isn't present, just that it might not be as pronounced or one of the "key metrics" in evaluating forwards.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WordsOfWisdom Newbie

WordsOfWisdom

Posted
Posted

Yeah I was being sarcastic but put just the one ninja at the end. Sorry.

I'm not so much an advocate of plus/minus as I am annoyed at how it gets dismissed as "useless" by people who have never taken the time to understand the valuable role it played as an imperfect proxy to judge players. It tells me that they've never played hockey.

When I was little I was very big on plus minus. I was proud to be a plus player. It meant I was a good 5-on-5 player, a 200 foot player. It was one of the ways I measured my worth vis-a-vis other more skilled players. But my coaches didn't need to track it to know who to put out in the last minute of a tight game.

 

Ironically enough, the best overall metric of how good a player is........................................... is ice time.  The best players on any team are played the most. Period.

 

Forwards:

 

1 John Tavares, C NYI 82 38 48 86 5 20:40 1851 22.6 19:42 2 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C EDM 76 24 32 56 -12 20:38 2028 26.7 28:00 3 Claude Giroux, C PHI 81 25 48 73 -3 20:34 2134 26.3 22:49 4 Nicklas Backstrom, C WSH 82 18 60 78 5 20:32 1996 24.3 21:35 5 Alex Ovechkin, LW WSH 81 53 28 81 10 20:20 1816 22.4 20:19 6 Joe Pavelski, C SJ 82 37 33 70 12 20:08 2207 26.9 23:34 7 Ryan Getzlaf, C ANA 77 25 45 70 15 20:06 1808 23.5 22:06 8 Andrew Ladd, LW WPG 81 24 38 62 9 20:04 2152 26.6 26:13 9 Alexander Steen, LW STL 74 24 40 64 8 19:59 2077 28.1 23:06 10 Sidney Crosby, C PIT 77 28 56 84 5 19:58 1924 25.0

18:18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defencemen:

 

 

1 Ryan Suter, D MIN 77 2 36 38 7 29:04 2389 31.0 58:53 2 Drew Doughty, D LA 82 7 39 46 3 29:00 2674 32.6 51:41 3 Erik Karlsson, D OTT 82 21 45 66 7 27:15 2191 26.7 33:51 4 Roman Josi, D NSH 81 15 40 55 15 26:28 2444 30.2 38:59 5 Shea Weber, D NSH 78 15 30 45 15 26:22 2381 30.5 45:42 6 P.K. Subban, D MTL 82 15 45 60 21 26:12 2472 30.1 35:48 7 Duncan Keith, D CHI 80 10 35 45 12 25:34 2392 29.9 45:26 8 Kris Letang, D PIT 69 11 43 54 12 25:29 1949 28.2 32:34 9 Alex Pietrangelo, D STL 81 7 39 46 -2 25:25 2570 31.7 44:44 10 Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D ARI 82 23 20 43 -18 25:13 2424 29.6 48:04
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WordsOfWisdom Newbie

WordsOfWisdom

Posted
Posted

Essentially, if your goalie can't stop a beach ball, you're probably not going to have a good +/- no matter how good a "defensive" player you are.

 

 

The defensive errors stat I created solves that problem.  (Another shameless plug.)  :)

 

Interestingly enough, if someone would like me to track the defensive errors for their favourite team during the playoffs, I will do so using the improved system. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JackStraw Newbie

JackStraw

Posted
  • Author
Posted

When I see a guy like Yandle go from a -32 player on one team to a +6 on another in the same season there are (IMO) obviously more factors at work than just the player's defensive acumen.

 

Oh no doubt about that. Obviously how good the team is is a big factor. I'm just thinking more in general, "all else being equal even though they never are" kinds of terms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...