Neuvirth

[King Knut]

3 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Hell no. Ride the hot hand they have ground to hold and make up.

 

Don't be worried about Neuvy getting hurt.

 

Play him. Sure watch him and when he shows signs of fatigue like he needs a break give him one.

 

Sure use both when back to back are to be played but till shown otherwise you ride the guy who is playing well.

 

99 seasons out of a hundred, 99 goalies out of a hundred, you're absolutely right... within reason (i.e. I'm still mad at Hak for the Mason overuse last year that cost at least 6-8 points and hence maybe the playoffs).  

 

The Flyers have a special (unenviably so) position this year because Neuvirth is playing better than Elliott and Neuvirth will definitely get hurt.

 

When the team plays well in front of him, Elliott is playing well enough to beat the Sharks, Capitals, Oilers, Maple Leafs and Ducks.  But he is wildly inconsistent even within games. 

 

Based on what we've seen so far this year, the team either plays a good solid consistent game or it comes out looking crappy and has it's caboose handed to them.  

 

Playing Neuvirth over Elliott against weaker/less important games really doesn't buy you much as far as an opportunity to win those games.   The chances are that as long as the team doesn't go out and embarrass itself like it did against the Coyotes, it's going to win those games no matter who is in net.  And the opposite appears to be true as well.  If the team plays poorly, based on what we've seen Neuvirth being in net isn't going to steal them a win.  

 

Now  the team playing poorly against a GOOD team or a divisional rival will inevitably have the same result, BUT if they play well against those teams, they WOULD in fact benefit from the more solid and consistent and steady in his net goalie. This means (for the time being anyway) Neuwirth could buy you a bit more against the better teams or in the bigger games and him being there could be the edge in a hard fought game against a good team.  

 

Long story short, playing Neuvy against weaker teams and especially against moderate to weak non-conference teams buys you little over the course of the season.   In those games, the way things have gone, the games he would win would be win by Elliott as well.

It's the tougher games that we need him in and if we play him in too many of the former, he'll almost certainly get hurt eventually and will NOT be able to perform at all in the latter.  

 

I really think that as long as Neuvirth is playing well my way is a better path to the playoffs--at least as long as Elliott is playing Mediocre to poor.  If for some reason Elliott heats up,  or falls off a cliff completely, then things change.  

 

if we were talking about almost any other goalie, it would be different and you'd absolutely be right.  But we're talking about Neuvirth and the guy will almost certainly get injured... and playing him until he starts to show signs as you suggest makes little sense because neither he nor the training staff will be aware if he's about to strain a groin or tear a meniscus or whatever.  They have to be preemptive.  They have to think in advance.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[fan4ever]

@King Knut

 

I see that you are very passionate about this and that's fine.  I get what you're saying but @icehole makes a good point.  The Arizona game doesn't prove that Elliott can beat the bad/borderline teams.  

 

I just think at this point we need to get points, and I think Neuvy is the guy to get us that.  He certainly can play more games than he is, ie. the Ducks on Saturday night.  I'm not saying 'kill the guy', just give him more starts, he deserves it!

[King Knut]

4 minutes ago, fan4ever said:

@King Knut

 

I see that you are very passionate about this and that's fine.  I get what you're saying but @icehole makes a good point.  The Arizona game doesn't prove that Elliott can beat the bad/borderline teams.  

 

I just think at this point we need to get points, and I think Neuvy is the guy to get us that.  He certainly can play more games than he is, ie. the Ducks on Saturday night.  I'm not saying 'kill the guy', just give him more starts, he deserves it!

 

Ultimately, I believe that regardless of who is in net, despite Neuvirth's league leading status and Elliot's apparent shakiness so far, the evidence so far this season truly suggests more than anything that it really depends on how the team plays that matters.  No games were lost just because Elliott was particularly soft all on his own. There have been games in which he's had soft stretches, but those were almost unilaterally also stretches in which the team in front of him was playing very very poorly.  

 

I don't want anyone to confuse my desire to be understood and reticence to accept that I am being understood and being dismissed with me being particularly passionate about which goalie starts when.  I'm not sure I care, I just want the team to win and hopefully make the playoffs.  

 

I think I've laid out a pretty sound and insightful logic.  If one accepts that Neuvirth probably isn't going to be able to play more than 35 or so games this year, it's the most logical deployment of those 35 or so games until the circumstances change (i.e. he starts playing worse or Elliott starts playing better or one of them gets hurt).  

 

I don't agree that we just "need to get points".  In this league it's not as simple as that.  Points against Colorado simply aren't worth as much as points against a divisional rival.  Sure, if you win, you get two points in either scenario, but when you play in the division, getting those points directly denies that divisional rival those two points and puts you essentially 4 points ahead of them in the playoff hunt.  

 

Given the choice, I'd sooner focus on winning those games... and preferably in regulation.  

 

If people disagree with me, I think that's fantastic, but I don't think just saying , "Nah, go with the hot hand" is a valid argument in any such discussion as there's no real point being made.  If no one's interested in discussing it, then that's fine too.  

 

I posted it so many times because I thought by responding to several people, it might conjure a wider discussion and get more of them to think about it and respond.  Long story short, if I thought the Colorado game was terribly important, I'd want Neuwirth in.  As I don't think it ultimately is... I'm pushing for Elliott.  

[King Knut]

19 minutes ago, fan4ever said:

@King Knut

 

I see that you are very passionate about this and that's fine.  I get what you're saying but @icehole makes a good point.  The Arizona game doesn't prove that Elliott can beat the bad/borderline teams.  

 

I just think at this point we need to get points, and I think Neuvy is the guy to get us that.  He certainly can play more games than he is, ie. the Ducks on Saturday night.  I'm not saying 'kill the guy', just give him more starts, he deserves it!

 

I'd also assert that no one should confuse a slow Friday in which I might be particularly unmotivated at work with me being passionate.  Excepting that I'm maybe more passionate about this particular issue than my job today. 

[RJ8812]

Keep playing him. He's always been better than Elliot. Just have to hope he doesn't get injured 

[King Knut]

9 minutes ago, RJ8812 said:

Keep playing him. He's always been better than Elliot. Just have to hope he doesn't get injured 

 

He will get injured.

[OccamsRazor]

11 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

I'd also assert that no one should confuse a slow Friday in which I might be particularly unmotivated at work with me being passionate.  Excepting that I'm maybe more passionate about this particular issue than my job today. 

 

Dude you're over thinking.

 

They next game. The next two points.

 

It's all that matters.

 

Don't look beyond.

 

Till it's over.

 

Don't over complicate it.

[OccamsRazor]

5 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

He will get injured.

 

Worry about it then.

 

Next man up.

 

You wouldn't not play Ghost because he could get injured.

 

You wouldn't not play Patrick because he could get injured.

 

Then don't treat Neuvy any different.

 

Two points. Dress the best team that gives you the chance to do that.

[King Knut]

4 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Dude you're over thinking.

 

They next game. The next two points.

 

It's all that matters.

 

Don't look beyond.

 

Till it's over.

 

Don't over complicate it.

 

Dude...that's how we got to where this team is now and you know it.  THere's got to be something between overthinking and not thinking.  

[OccamsRazor]

5 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

Dude...that's how we got to where this team is now and you know it.  THere's got to be something between overthinking and not thinking.  

 

Huh. That isn't how this team got to were it is now they are 14 games into the season.

 

They have the record they have more than likely because they were not playing the right goalie.

 

That it.

 

So i hope they have learned now.

[King Knut]

8 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Worry about it then.

 

 

Really?  You're going with Worry about it later?  All these years, I never suspected that OccamsRazor was secretly Homer.  

 

8 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

You wouldn't not play Ghost because he could get injured.

 

You wouldn't not play Patrick because he could get injured.

 

 

No, you wouldn't, but A) They're not goalies and let's not pretend goalies aren't different and B) if they each had a track record of only being able to play 65% of your team's games over an 8 year career, while you might not healthy scratch them to keep them healthy, you might in fact CURB THEIR MINUTES.  You wouldn't play Ghost 30 minutes a night against a team you should beat easily.  

 

Even when they're healthy, you don't put either player out on a PK and you try not to have them out against the other team's top lines as much as possible.  

 

And this is where Goalies are different because the only way to curb their minutes is to put them on the bench.  You can't say, "hey Neuvy... how about you just play 12 minutes tonight?"  you can with position players.  

 

I'm not talking about putting him in the press box in a kevlar suit.  I'm essentially talking about the goalie equivalent of curbing his minutes.

 

How many minutes did Timmo play at his prime vs. how many did he play when he won the cup with the Blackhawks.

 

He was still valuable to him, but they damn well knew he wouldn't be if he played 28 minutes a game.  

 

This is what I'm talking about.  

 

It's actually really not treating Neuvy any differently.  It's treating him the same as you would a position player who's either prone to injury or past his prime.  

 

8 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

Two points. Dress the best team that gives you the chance to do that.

 

As I've said... for much of the season, it's 4 points.  Not 2.  And that's what I'm talking about.  Giving your team the best chance to get those 2 points in March as well as in October.  

 

 

 

[King Knut]

16 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Huh. That isn't how this team got to were it is now they are 14 games into the season.

 

They have the record they have more than likely because they were not playing the right goalie.

 

That it.

 

So i hope they have learned now.

 

What game did playing Elliott cost them the win?

 

Name one.  

[OccamsRazor]

12 minutes ago, King Knut said:

Really?  You're going with Worry about it later?  All these years, I never suspected that OccamsRazor was secretly Homer.  

 

 

So you buy a nice Porche but won't drive it because someone could ding it with their door...or don't drive it because it could need repair or worse you could wreck it?

 

Doesn't make sense then why have it?

[King Knut]

7 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

So you buy a nice Porche but won't drive it because someone could ding it with their door...or don't drive it because it could need repair or worse you could wreck it?

 

Doesn't make sense then why have it?

 

okay, let's just both acknowledge that calling Neuwirth a Porsche is pretty funny.

 

second, if I buy a porsche, I'm not going off roading with it.  I'm not taking it to the grocery store for milk and leaving it in the parking space by the door where someone will scratch it with a cart, and I'm certainly NOT doing any of those things if I've had it for 8 years and it breaks down an awful lot.

 

I'm going to drive the Porsche on the open road where I can enjoy it's superior performance or to important work functions or parties where people can see me look cool in it. 

If the Porsche is in the shop because I drove it over a mountain on a fire road, it wont be there when I need it.  

I'll use the old beat up jeep to get me over the mountain.  

 

You've stumbled on a pretty good metaphor for making my point actually.  

 

I'm going to maximize my usage.   the same any team would do with a Ghost or a Patrick or even a Neuvirth.  

[OccamsRazor]

Anyway i layed out my thoughts.

 

Ride Neuvy.

 

[RJ8812]

The problem with Elliot is he never makes the big save. He'll make most of the saves he's supposed to make and some he should make go in through him, but never a big save that we need to bail out his team.

 

Neuvirth can make those big saves. He's shown it before and has played much better then Elliot has so far.

 

You don't want to play him because he could/might/will get injured? Who cares? He isn't injured now. Should the Pens sit Crosby because he could get injured? No. Silly reason not to give Neuvirth more starts

[OccamsRazor]

17 minutes ago, King Knut said:

okay, let's just both acknowledge that calling Neuwirth a Porsche is pretty funny.

 

Ok say it's a Camry. 

 

Why buy it if you afraid to use it becuase wear and tear will make it need repairs.

 

Put gas in it drive it but keep up wih the maintenance on it and it will last.

[King Knut]

38 minutes ago, RJ8812 said:

The problem with Elliot is he never makes the big save. He'll make most of the saves he's supposed to make and some he should make go in through him, but never a big save that we need to bail out his team.

 

Neuvirth can make those big saves. He's shown it before and has played much better then Elliot has so far.

 

You don't want to play him because he could/might/will get injured? Who cares? He isn't injured now. Should the Pens sit Crosby because he could get injured? No. Silly reason not to give Neuvirth more starts

 

Read the posts above for the "younwouldnt sit Crosby" argument. In fact you DO exactly that.  It's just different for players. 

 

Occam comparednto ghost.  I say, you don't play ghost on the PK or give him 30 minutes when you don't need a goal.  

 

Its just usage.  You don't play Crosby against certain lines and you don't give him 20 minutes against hard hitting teams when you're up 4-0 after a period and a half.  

 

Thisbis the same thing b T with goalies, things tend to happen in games not minutes. 

 

[King Knut]

34 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Ok say it's a Camry. 

 

Why buy it if you afraid to use it becuase wear and tear will make it need repairs.

 

Put gas in it drive it but keep up wih the maintenance on it and it will last.

 

Does the Camry break down at least once for 7 out of the last 8 years?

 

if so, you use the VW with 300,000 miles that sounds awful, & can't go above 60mph but you know will get you there for your daily commute and the Camry for dates. 

 

And god love you because you're really just saving up for that Mercedes they're building in Sweden or the Beemer that's currently in juniors and you hope one of them pans out. 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

Does the Camry break down at least once for 7 out of the last 8 years?

 

Sure if you ignore the part were i say keep up with the maintenance on it...no doubt.

 

There are 15 back to back this year so plan accordingly.

 

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

VW with 300,000 miles that sounds awful, & can't go above 60mph but you know will get you there for your daily commute

 

No way this is Ellison so it must be another goalie.

 

I have to go with what RJ said below.

 

2 hours ago, RJ8812 said:

He'll make most of the saves he's supposed to make and some he should make go in through him, but never a big save that we need to bail out his team.

 

This.

[AlaskaFlyerFan]

 I agree that Neuvy  has played well and deserves the next start.  But I think that some of you may be over analyzing this. Here is my point, if the team does not win with one goalie even if that goalie has incredible stats, but they win games with the other goalie with less than stellar stats you go with the goalie that wins the games. After all, the  team is playing for a Stanley Cup at the end of the year not the Vezina trophy.  Neuvy may have the second highest save percentage in the league  but the points in the win column are way more important than his individual stats. 

[radoran]

@King Knut

 

What you're saying is that Neuvirth is the Halak/Allen to Elliott.

 

Exactly what he needs, as Chad Johnson of all people showed last year...

[icehole]

14 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

Does the Camry break down at least once for 7 out of the last 8 years?

 

if so, you use the VW with 300,000 miles that sounds awful, & can't go above 60mph but you know will get you there for your daily commute and the Camry for dates. 

 

And god love you because you're really just saving up for that Mercedes they're building in Sweden or the Beemer that's currently in juniors and you hope one of them pans out. 

 

 

Ok.  You and @OccamsRazor both have very valid points.  I know what you're saying about over playing Neuvirth.  He is very injury prone.  Are they freak injuries or is he getting over worked until something fails?  Freak injuries you can't do anything about. 

 

If he's overworked to the point where he gets injured, the trainers have to figure out a recovery period for him between games.  I'm not a doctor so I don't know.  If I were the coach though, I would want him to play up to 3 out of 4 games...basically 3 games every 10 days.

 

If you want him to get 35 games this season, the problem is the flyers won't get 57 games against weaker opponents.  Just think of 57 games of Elliot. 

 

OR's points made me think of a few things.  If your goal is to win as many games as possible, you have to play your best players without worrying about injury.

 

If we're honest with ourselves, the goalie to get the flyers to championship level isn't on the team yet.  You see it all the time.  The number 1 goes down with a LTI.  They play the backup and bring up a young prospect to back up (if the prospect isn't the backup already...which I wish the flyers would've done by now).  If the young kid is worth anything, they'll sprinkle him into a few games.  He plays well enough to get more games until the team pencils him in to be the #1 for the future.

 

How old and experienced are the flyers goalie prospects?  People are always hesitant to bring up young prospects because they aren't mentally mature, their bodies aren't mature, they need to improve on their skating or stick handling.  To me, a good goalie either has it or he doesn't.  I'm sure there are a few things they have to work on and learn to play in the NHL, but the most important things like reaction time, size, flexibility, and vision should already be there in the early 20s...correct?

 

So should we really be scared about Neuvy going down?  I might be wrong, but I'm not worried about bringing up 1 of the 3 goalies (not sure who is eligible to join the team) I've been hearing so much about.

[OccamsRazor]

36 minutes ago, icehole said:

So should we really be scared about Neuvy going down? 

 

No.

 

He is playing well and shows no signs of fatigue or injury.

 

So he is playing the best of the two.

 

That doesn't mean he will the whole season just that he is playing best right now.

 

And when that changes or he shows signs he needs a break go to Elliot.

 

Except in back to back games then give him a rest the 2nd of the back to back games.

 

Till it shows otherwise this rotation isn't working on Elliot starts to improve and out performs Neuvy then make the switch.

 

Bottom line is they need points.

 

The only way to get it is by wins.

 

So play Neuvy.

 

To me it's as simple as that.

 

It's like sailing on the high seas.

 

Winds change.

 

You have to adjust your sails accordingly.

 

Go Flyers!

 

Won't be able to watch tonight.

 

We have a baby sitter and it's date night with the wife!

 

Here's to me and the Flyers getting lucky!!!

 

[King Knut]

15 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

This.

 

...is incredibly short sighted and why we end up with the team you deserve and n T throne I do.