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Chances of Playoffs, Opponent and Similar


Digityman

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1 hour ago, flyercanuck said:

 Year after year they have what appears to be a cup caliber team. And year after year they bow out in the first or second round. They don't ever seem to be capable of building on that experience. 

 

@brelic

 

Or..........what about the Preds and their young team. 

 

2012-13 Did not qualify

2013-14 Did not qualify

2014-15 Lost in the 1st round

2015-16 Lost in the 2nd 

2016-17 Lost in the finals

2017-18 Win Cup??????

 

Do you see the natural progression??

 

So who knows if they win it all this year.

 

So if this year was to start their (the Flyers) progression of getting IN and losing in the first round i would be ok with it.

 

Then 2018-19 lose in the 2nd round.

 

2019-20 lose in the 3rd round.

 

2020-21 lose in the finals.

 

Then in 2021-22 win the Cup i would love it and say yes that 1st round loss was pivotal in them learning to win the Cup.

 

Now will they who knows....but damn i would love to say yeah damnnit i would love to win a friggin Cup by 2021-22!!!!!!!!!!

 

If not then damn when??

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8 minutes ago, elmatus said:

At this point, we're at year three of the Hextall experiment. I think it's fair to start asking how much longer he will be given to make this into a contending team. So far, he really hasn't had much actual success. We can point to draft and prospect results all we want, what ultimately matters is cup contention.

 

 

I agree please see my last post i have it around 2021-22 starting this year and if not then........then damn when???

 

It has to start sometime and i say it starts now!!! Hell by then Carter Hart will 24!!! Sandstrom 25!!!

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7 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

2012-13 Did not qualify

2013-14 Did not qualify

2014-15 Lost in the 1st round

2015-16 Lost in the 2nd 

2016-17 Lost in the finals

2017-18 Win Cup??????

 

Do you see the natural progression??

 

I'm not sure they're winning the cup this year, but maybe. If so, I think it's worth looking at how they built their team of course. It should be noted that many of the players leading the charge on that team now were obtained via trades rather than drafted (Forsberg, Johansen, Subban, Turris).

 

In fact, they're largely an example of the opposite. For years they languished with middling teams, and they never really bothered trying to trade to bolster their team. They stuck to building from the draft, and it really never panned out... 

 

Then suddenly they traded for Forsberg (one of the most one-sided acquisitions in recent memory), traded away their captain in Weber for Subban, a future stud dman in Jones to get Johansen, and moved a bunch of pieces around to get Turris.

 

If anything, that seems like an example that building from the draft is a challenge at best...

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Just now, elmatus said:

I'm not sure they're winning the cup this year, but maybe.

 

 

They have to be the deepest team in the NHL and they have been playing great hockey all year.

 

It's looking like a Preds vs. Bolts collision course!!!

 

2 minutes ago, elmatus said:

It should be noted that many of the players leading the charge on that team now were obtained via trades rather than drafted (Forsberg, Johansen, Subban, Turris).

 

 

Sure it's a mix. And that is what it will take no team wins it all with only drafted players.

 

 

The groundwork was layed over a period of time.

 

Look at the players they drafted.

 

Fiala

Ardvisson

Saros

Sissons

Salomaki

Bitetto

Ellis

Ekholm

Smith

Josi

Rinne

 

So that is 11 players of a 23 man roster that was home grown. It takes a mix.

 

Do you think the Kings are mad because it took vets Richards, Carter, Gagne, Williams, Mitchell, Penner, Greene,  Scuderi and Fraser to help them win a Cup?? Hell no. It takes a mix.

 

And by the time the Flyers maybe do it....it could take a mix!!!!!!!!

 

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16 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Then suddenly they traded for Forsberg (one of the most one-sided acquisitions in recent memory), traded away their captain in Weber for Subban, a future stud dman in Jones to get Johansen, and moved a bunch of pieces around to get Turris.

 

 

And the Flyers when all is said and done could be looked back as moving some player too before they get there.

 

In fact we could look back as the start of it all by moving Brayden Schenn!!! Who knows Simmer could be next!!!

 

Then in a year or two when all these Dmen arrive...a Dman or two could be moved too....like Gudas (at next year's trade deadline for example).

 

Just saying it is a retooling on the fly so to speak there is no ONE way to do it!

 

As long as you do it!!!!!

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35 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

You do have a point. This year that seems very unlikely of course, but I do get what you're saying. The Caps are a very interesting case, SJ is another one. Dominant teams that seem to lack that x-factor needed to push them towards a cup. Meanwhile, the Pens and Hawks win with what I would consider far fewer elite-level players.

 

What do the Pens have the Caps don't? Is it similar to what the Hawks have had over the past while? Whatever it is, it's clearly very important. Do we have whatever that is in the works already? I doubt it. I feel like we'd know it, and I'm not feeling it.

 

Looking at the team this year, they strike me as being not so much better than last year. Sure, the kids can be flashy, and the hope is they'll become better in years to come of course. Overall though, they're largely in the same bubble team area as last year, this despite a resurgent Giroux, break out Couturier, and the revelation that has been TK.

 

At this point, we're at year three of the Hextall experiment. I think it's fair to start asking how much longer he will be given to make this into a contending team. So far, he really hasn't had much actual success. We can point to draft and prospect results all we want, what ultimately matters is cup contention.

 

So what does he get? Five years to prove it? I'd say that's probably fair. That would mean two more seasons to show the team he's building is positioning itself as a contender in the league. Is that the path we're on? That's a harder question to answer. There's always the danger the building from the draft style of management ends up being too slow for one thing. It may also make it even more difficult for us to obtain the x-factor that teams like the Pens and Hawks have had in recent years.

 

Here's the rub when looking at those teams: Crosby, Malkin, Kane, and Toews. Sure, there were other very important players in the mix (Hossa, Fleury, and Kessel come to mind), but I'm pretty confident those secondary factors would be lost without the big guns.

 

Is that caliber of player needed to build a contender in this era? I hope not, but it does seem that way sometimes. I hope not because that caliber of player is generally only available with a top 1-3 pick. Is Patrick that guy? It's possible... he has a lot to prove next year if so.

 

I say next year because next year is year four. What are the expectations? I think the expectation for next year is we're not fighting for a wild card spot in the dying weeks. I think if this current situation is the same again next year, the pressure will start to mount on the Flyers brass (and rightly so.)

 

Philly is still a couple of defencemen (whom we hopefully have in the pipeline) some depth forwards (ditto) and, of course, that true #1 goalie (double ditto) away from being a legit playoff threat. Sure this team can make the playoffs. With some luck they could even take a series, if the cards line up for them. But contend? With that goaltending, those bottom 3 defence and the likes of Wiesse/Lehtera/Filpula and Read? Ha!

 

 Since we apparently are still in "building mode", I'd prefer higher picks. It's not the be-all end-all. Hextall can, and has drafted better players later than other gms. And vice-versa. But the depth is clearly beginning to show on the team and in the prospects...and our shot at that lottery win(dow) is closing. It wouldn't bother me one bit to have one more crack at it before it closes for awhile. But I don't see it happening. 

 

 I'm not looking at the Hawks and Pens as the teams to beat when and if Philly becomes a true contender.I want the ammo to go against the Laines/Mathews/McDavids(if they ever get real management) types.

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53 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

@brelic

 

Or..........what about the Preds and their young team. 

 

2012-13 Did not qualify

2013-14 Did not qualify

2014-15 Lost in the 1st round

2015-16 Lost in the 2nd 

2016-17 Lost in the finals

2017-18 Win Cup??????

 

Do you see the natural progression??

 

So who knows if they win it all this year.

 

So if this year was to start their (the Flyers) progression of getting IN and losing in the first round i would be ok with it.

 

Then 2018-19 lose in the 2nd round.

 

2019-20 lose in the 3rd round.

 

2020-21 lose in the finals.

 

Then in 2021-22 win the Cup i would love it and say yes that 1st round loss was pivotal in them learning to win the Cup.

 

Now will they who knows....but damn i would love to say yeah damnnit i would love to win a friggin Cup by 2021-22!!!!!!!!!!

 

If not then damn when??

 

Ya, there's no written in stone formula. The Hawks were out of the playoffs forever. In their first crack back they went to the conference finals...then won a cup.  

 

None of us know for sure if hextall has the right plan in place. But at least he has plenty of prospects to either develop, or trade when he feels the time is right.

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7 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

But at least he has plenty of prospects to either develop, or trade when he feels the time is right.

 

 

Exactly....it is no exact science....you have to mesh the draft with free agency...draft develop the guys identify the best you can of the guys you need to keep and the guys you need to move either by letting them walk or trading them for pieces they need at the time.

 

Or like in Marody's case don't think they will have a place for and just get assets for instead of being left empty handed like the Preds were with Jimmy Vesey or like the Avs were with Will Butcher going to the Devils for example.

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I don't mean to suggest the plan is failing. I hope I don't come across that way. I've been very impressed with a number of our kiddos, as has everyone else.

 

My point is more a question of tenure length for Hexy, and what happens if he doesn't deliver a team that can find playoff success in the next couple years. I do think next year is a benchmark year for Hexy. If the team next year is in the same situation they are now, I expect we'll start hearing about pressure mounting on Hexy and Hakstol. What that ultimately leads to is hard to say. 

 

I will say this too about goaltending: Great goaltenders are not necessary to find playoff success. Sure, Elliott isn't going to be enough, but having a Bobrovsky or Rinne is not necessary. It obviously can help a ton, but for every Tim Thomas, there are more Crawfords and Fleurys.

 

That's good news for us, because the likelihood of us finding that caliber goalie anytime soon is slim to none. What we need is a Crawford of our own -- someone who can steal a game now and again, and who will generally be solid if not spectacular the rest of the time. I just don't know where we'll find that in the next couple years.

 

Hart and Sandstrom are great projects, but they'll come in too late to save Hexy's job. He needs to find a way to make this team a playoff threat before 2021-22, or there's a good chance he'll be shown the door.

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10 minutes ago, elmatus said:

I don't mean to suggest the plan is failing. I hope I don't come across that way. I've been very impressed with a number of our kiddos, as has everyone else.

 

My point is more a question of tenure length for Hexy, and what happens if he doesn't deliver a team that can find playoff success in the next couple years. I do think next year is a benchmark year for Hexy. If the team next year is in the same situation they are now, I expect we'll start hearing about pressure mounting on Hexy and Hakstol. What that ultimately leads to is hard to say. 

 

I think Hextall was given a mulligan for his first few years due to some terrible contracts he had to purge and a near empty prospect cupboard. He's done a good job at refilling the cupboard and got rid of some ummovable commitments Homer had made. Now he's moving into the "make the team better" phase, and I think we're starting to see that. Just remember, HIS draft picks are just starting to become NHLers. 

 

10 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

I will say this too about goaltending: Great goaltenders are not necessary to find playoff success. Sure, Elliott isn't going to be enough, but having a Bobrovsky or Rinne is not necessary. It obviously can help a ton, but for every Tim Thomas, there are more Crawfords and Fleurys.

 

That's good news for us, because the likelihood of us finding that caliber goalie anytime soon is slim to none. What we need is a Crawford of our own -- someone who can steal a game now and again, and who will generally be solid if not spectacular the rest of the time. I just don't know where we'll find that in the next couple years.

 

Hart and Sandstrom are great projects, but they'll come in too late to save Hexy's job. He needs to find a way to make this team a playoff threat before 2021-22, or there's a good chance he'll be shown the door.

 

With a good team in front of him you're right, we don't need the best goalie in the world. Good D and solid 2 way players in front can make up for a lot. Fortunately that's exactly what Hextalls blueprint is.

 

I think Hart could be ready to take the step by that year.

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4 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Don't get me wrong, I get what you're saying....but...explain (for example cause they're so easy) Washington. They've experienced plenty of playoffs....the pressure (they're probably feeling that right now) and the sting of losing (they're probably getting ready for that right now).

 

 Year after year they have what appears to be a cup caliber team. And year after year they bow out in the first or second round. They don't ever seem to be capable of building on that experience. 

 

 Now you can argue the other way and say they already have their 1st overall guy in OV and a few other top 10 picks. And like I said, I get what you're saying. I'd prefer a shot at Dahlin, Svechnikov or Zadina, cause I think that gives us a better shot at a cup down the road than a handful of playoff games. The odds of winning (moving up in) the lottery twice aren't very good of course. They're a lot better if you're actually in it though. There wasn't a soul on here who thought we'd end up with Patrick last draft.

 

 That said, I think it's a playoff year for Philly. I just won't be all that upset if they don't make it. 

 

I get what you're saying too. Washington is a great example. 

 

The reality is that only one out of 31 teams wins the Cup. It's really hard and really elusive. Especially that we've had three multiple cup winners over the past half decade. 

 

So, I guess short of drafting four times in the top 2 like the Pens, a cup win depends on so many factors that it's impossible to guarantee success. 

 

I feel like the notion of "one more draft" or "we're not ready yet" and that it's better to miss can become myopic in a sense too. One thing that guarantees you'll never win is missing the playoffs.

 

I'm with you - I want to see playoff hockey this year but if they don't make it, I won't see it as some sort of inexcusable failure. It's a learning experience. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Pucked in the head said:

Gotta match the intensity and then some they'll be on the back end of a back to back ,got to try to take advantage of that early and often

 

 

With playoffs on the line if they can bring it then they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

 

I'm really more worried about who is in net.

 

They can't afford to fall behind early.

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