brelic Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 It surprised me, too. You might want to re-run the numbers because Read had 40 points this season and your chart has him at 52 (everyone else looks fine - I think you duped Hartnell for Read). Ahh yes, good catch. Fixed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Maybe Giroux's first guarantee should be to score a goal before he predicts a game 4 win Hey that was my answer.....that is cheating!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! REPORTED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlyersFan4Life Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I can't blame Roo at all yeah is he being double teamed and hit every timeyes, even superstars can get shut down. Look at the Pitt Jackets Series neither Malkin or CIndy have goals and have been pretty much quiet and shutdown and they are super stars. What has happened is the rest of the team has picked their lack of scoring and now have 2-1 lead in the series. The Flyers need to do the same. Where the hell are the other 6+ 20 goal scorers at? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xganarchy Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I think Berube needs to juggle the lines a bit. Separate Giroux and Voracek. Voracek has shown he can score when he has the opportunity, so why not have Hartnell-Giroux-Simmonds, and Lecavalier-Schenn-Voracek? Just a thought.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakanekimiwa Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I can't blame Roo at all yeah is he being double teamed and hit every timeyes, even superstars can get shut down. Look at the Pitt Jackets Series neither Malkin or CIndy have goals and have been pretty much quiet and shutdown and they are super stars. What has happened is the rest of the team has picked their lack of scoring and now have 2-1 lead in the series. The Flyers need to do the same. Where the hell are the other 6+ 20 goal scorers at? They're out there... taking dumb penalties! Honestly, I thought Read was a scratch in gm1 and 2... didn't see him until very late in the games. I have to take a look at the numbers, but it sure does seem like Berube is runnin the 4th line out there quite a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polaris922 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Have a look at the chart. It shows how many points other Flyers get when Giroux does not get a point, and how they do when Giroux gets at least 1 point. I chose the other six 20-goal scorers as a comparison. It's not at all surprising for Hartnell and Voracek, because they're on the same line. But then you see how much Simmer also depends not only on Giroux but as @radoran showed, the PP. Read's performance was a surprise to me. Anyway, just more evidence that as Giroux goes, so the Flyers go. These stats are always very misleading to me. Okay fine the team wins more when Giroux scores. Well, doesn't that make sense? You're best offensive player who gets the most ice time scores and you have better odds of winning? Shocking! Well wouldn't his scoring or not scoring be a good indicator of whether your team was getting the bounces today or not? Or whether the other goalie was hot or not? Or whether the other team was defensively focused or not? Or whether your goalie had a lot of shots to face or not? Giroux's play is an indicator of how well your team is in sync for the day, how well they're connecting with passes, how well the offense is rolling, how many power play opportunities you are getting... and when he doesn't score, he's on the ice the most anyway so bad results there generally show your team having a bad time of it. I dunno... it's all common sense to me. Now show me that the team wins more when Read scores or Raffl and I could argue that the stats reflect secondary scoring. OF COURSE the team wins a lot when guys who aren't expected to score do! I wonder if you looked across the league at every team, you'd find similar win/loss stats for their highest paid players? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Well, how about this: there's a difference between having seven 20-goal scorers with guys scoring 20, 20, 20, 22, 23, 28, 29 and, say Five 20-goal scorers with guys scoring 20, 28, 29, 30, 34 That's Chicago. Sharp had 10 of 34 on the PP 29%Kane 10 of 29 34%Toews 5 of 28 18%Hossa 4 of 30 13% Shaw 5 of 20 25% 34 of 141 - 25% on the PP. To me, that represents two potent scoring lines at even strength and effective on the PP as well. Not overreliant on the power play and certainly not overreliant on one player (they had 50 60+ point players, Flyers had 3). The Flyers have three 20-goal guys on their first line and they're 20, 23, 28. Their top scorer on the "second" line had 29, but 51% of that production was on the power play. Both teams have nine 10+ goal players as well. Guys scoring 20 on the dot often aren't really creating their own games. They are taking advantage of opportunity. Read with 4 shorties and 3 empty netters, for example. Hartnell with 9 of 20 on the PP. VLC with 8 of 20 on the PP. Chicago's players are adept at both. In the playoffs those opportunities are fewer and farther between because teams are really locking down and can also study and dissect one particular team. As it is, the Flyers are a one dimensional team and that dimension has been covered effectively by the Rangers so far. They can do more. They can still win this series. Because the playoffs (as we all know) are places where guys step up and emerge. In the future, what the Flyers have to rely on is Simmonds, Schenn and Voracek hitting the 25-30 range on a reliable basis, VLC and Hartnell maintaining 20 goals, if not 50 points, and the second line becoming a legitimate threat on its own to take pressure off Giroux's line. Read and Couturier are probably 15-20 guys (with Read being 20 and Couturier being 15) Right now is a great time for any of those guys to really step up and own a spot. No time like the present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 These stats are always very misleading to me. Okay fine the team wins more when Giroux scores. Well, doesn't that make sense? You're best offensive player who gets the most ice time scores and you have better odds of winning? Shocking! Well wouldn't his scoring or not scoring be a good indicator of whether your team was getting the bounces today or not? Or whether the other goalie was hot or not? Or whether the other team was defensively focused or not? Or whether your goalie had a lot of shots to face or not? Giroux's play is an indicator of how well your team is in sync for the day, how well they're connecting with passes, how well the offense is rolling, how many power play opportunities you are getting... and when he doesn't score, he's on the ice the most anyway so bad results there generally show your team having a bad time of it. I dunno... it's all common sense to me. Now show me that the team wins more when Read scores or Raffl and I could argue that the stats reflect secondary scoring. OF COURSE the team wins a lot when guys who aren't expected to score do! I wonder if you looked across the league at every team, you'd find similar win/loss stats for their highest paid players? At a basic level, you're right, it's that simple. Your best players are your best players for a reason: they are big game players that can control or take over a game, and will the team to a victory they had no business winning. He also leads the troops with his play on the ice, and obviously he's not getting a bunch of unassisted goals. Others all around are benefitting from his play (and getting points in the process). It's common sense, you're absolutely right. In the Flyers case, what was curious to me is that with all this supposed depth that includes seven 20-goal scorers, it sure dries up when Giroux isn't scoring. Hartnell got 85% of his points in games Giroux also got a point. Which makes sense because they're linemates. So you have to guess at causality here - and I would say that it's Hartnell that is benefitting and getting points because of Giroux, and not the other way around. For Voracek, it's a little less clear because last season (the shortened one), he was a PPG player with a lot of time away from Giroux, and he was potting goals on strong individual efforts. In other words, he led many plays last year and made his own space more often than Hartnell. Simmonds benefits a lot from the PP time with Giroux, and I think rad posted that 51% of his goals are PPG. So when Giroux is not feeding him the pucks, or when the PP isn't clicking, he ain't putting up points on his own. Schenn, Lecavalier, and Read are less dependent on Giroux because they're not regularly out with him. But they still have a bump in production when Giroux produces. It's still not enough to say that it's a cause, but it's curious. I mean, is it because the team as a whole is playing well? Or did they just kill off a 3-on-5 and get a momentum swing that raises all players? Did Mason have one of those games where the guys want to win for him because he held up more than his end of the bargain? Is it the fire that Giroux brings to the game when he's having one of those nights? All that to say, it's hardly scientific, but it was a fun exercise at seeing just how much Giroux raises all boats on this team. People have a tendency to say that Giroux doesn't elevate those around him, but I disagree. When he's on, he's electrifying. One of the most exciting Flyers players ever. In my eyes, he most definitely makes players around him better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanflyer Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 even a Sharp. Not to derail, but sharp is pointless this playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Not to derail, but sharp is pointless this playoffs. out of that whole thing you decided to pick out Sharp? well played, sir! Chicago is also tied with the Blues and has scored 12 goals in four games. Which is the point of the next post comparing the Hawks directly to the Flyers, so keep reading Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanflyer Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 out of that whole thing you decided to pick out Sharp? well played, sir! What can I say? I am lazy. -_- 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Not to derail, but sharp is pointless this playoffs. He scored one last night i thought...........no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanflyer Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 He scored one last night i thought...........no? Not only did he not score, He is pointless and a -1. Hossa only has 1 assist and is a -2. Both lead the hawks in shots (so not like they are not trying / getting opportunities). If either of those two get going, look out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Not only did he not score, He is pointless and a -1. Hossa only has 1 assist and is a -2. Both lead the hawks in shots (so not like they are not trying / getting opportunities). If either of those two get going, look out. Ok your're right i was wrong i could have sworn he scored but i admit i was emailing a friend, chatting in the chat room last night AND drinking beer and watching the game (multi tasking)....and it seems i was doing waaaaaay more drinking beer than paying attention to the game! :blink: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanflyer Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 and it seems i was doing waaaaaay more drinking beer than paying attention to the game! No worries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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