Meltzer on the Umberger trade

[Vanflyer]

But in years four and five it does give them an extra $4.75M against the cap.

 

But its not really "xtra", because you have to replace Umberger. I get the Hextall basically felt that Hartnell was not going to be all that in years 4 and 5. But all he did is remove THAT headache of the future ( that he inherited), for a headache today, which he just created. Where is Rocky and Bullwinkle?? 

 

Hextall seems like a shoot from the hips kind of guy. The only spot for Hartnell on this or most teams is 2nd of 1st line. He is not adequate enough speed or defensive wise to play a checking role and 4.5m for a 4th line role just is not going to cut it (cough VLC). 

 

I think there could have been a convo with Hartnell to say "hey man, your skills are not good enough. ready to move upstairs?". 

 

Columbus does not need Hartnell to be fast- because they are fast. they need Hartnell to do what he does from the circles on down. Thats it. 

 

The Flyers do need Umberger to be fast. The problem is  that he is not. Faster than Hartnell, yeah, but that is not saying much. So, the Flyers gained a couple more HP's in the speed department, but lost a leader, steady producer and one of their best sand-grit guys. 

 

Booo! 

Edited June 24, 2014 by Vanflyer

[ruxpin]

But its not really "xtra", because you have to replace Umberger. I get the Hextall basically felt that Hartnell was not going to be all that in years 4 and 5. But all he did is remove THAT headache of the future ( that he inherited), for a headache today, which he just created. Where is Rocky and Bullwinkle??    Of course it's extra because you go get a younger guy in year 4 or 5 and aren't saddled with a deteriorated guy who cannot even skate NOW.  It's $4.75M you can use on a replacement for Umberger.  Without doing this move, it's  $4.75M for 4 goals, 5 assists and "where the hell do we put this guy?"  I don't agree it's a headache today.  I actually think we just got rid of the headache exactly because of what you say in the next segment.

 

Hextall seems like a shoot from the hips kind of guy. The only spot for Hartnell on this or most teams is 2nd of 1st line. He is not adequate enough speed or defensive wise to play a checking role and 4.5m for a 4th line role just is not going to cut it (cough VLC). Agreed on the part starting with "The only spot..." but this is WHY you move him.  The only spot for him and his salary are 2nd or 1st line, but he is HORRIBLE on ours.  He's really NOT a top line winger anymore but he simply lacks the skill/smarts required to play on the third and makes entirely too much for the 4th.  So, he's a square peg in a round hole no matter where you put him.  On the Flyers, anyway.   All for the bargain basement price of (say it together now) FOUR POINT SEVEN FIVE MILLION DOLLARS.    The fact Hextall was able to get out from under this while he still could while getting a guy with similar numbers over the last 2 years and for less of a headache going forward (peg thing, contract thing) AND get a pick (albeit a 4th) isn't shoot from the hip.  It's flat out brilliant. 

 

I think there could have been a convo with Hartnell to say "hey man, your skills are not good enough. ready to move upstairs?". Upstairs????  They a a convalescent home upstairs?  (I know they do...Snider, Clarke.   They have another room??)  He'd maybe be good for community relations, anyway.

 

Columbus does not need Hartnell to be fast- because they are fast. they need Hartnell to do what he does from the circles on down. Thats it.  Okay, that's not fair.  It's possible he's a better fit in Columbus.  Like VLC, he simply worked no place here.

 

The Flyers do need Umberger to be fast. The problem is  that he is not. Faster than Hartnell, yeah, but that is not saying much. So, the Flyers gained a couple more HP's in the speed department, but lost a leader, steady producer and one of their best sand-grit guys.    People keep talking about the Flyers getting faster in this.  I know you're simply responding to it.  I don't see it unless you count skating vs. being on one's ass.  The benefit of Umberger is that he can move up and done without being a horrible detriment to the line.  I can't say he'll be particularly helpful, but he won't be a detriment.    The other thing is that if he slides into the 3rd line it could potentially bump Coots up to the 2nd.  I don't think that's a bad thing for Coots' development if that's the case.  I'm waiting, though, because I don't think L. Schenn at 1st LW is actually seriously their plan.

 

Booo! 

[ZeZel25]

What financial flexibility? The only thing i see is that they will have 4.6m to spend to replace Umberger 3 seasons from now. 

 

The team speed, role flexibility make sense to me. But I do not see any financial flexibility. 

At the end of the deal, when you dont have to pay a guy 9 or 10 million dollars thats CLEARLY past his prime. Yes you have to replace Umberger but by that time one of the kids in the system should be able to step into that role for a fraction of the cost

[brelic]

He has worked hard and deserves more ice time. It would also prompt some more offense out of him, something that I believe would have happened anyways, but that would jump start the process....which would in turn be great for the team.

 

I was going to point out the same thing as @JackStraw that Coots already has a boatload of ice time. If the Flyers want more offense out of him, they have to use him differently - more offensive zone faceoffs, and maybe a winger with more offensive flair, like a Simmonds. Over time, Coots will 'outgrow' Read, so to speak, so I don't think they should necessarily follow each other around. It's probably fine for now, but Read's ceiling is pretty much hit, and he's a 40+ point guy. Coots will need guys like Simmer, Schenn, Jake, Akeson etc if his offensive production is to really take off.

 

Maybe that compromises the defensive quality of his unit, but it might be a necessary step.

[Earle'sGaffe]

It seems like this deal is being evaluated almost exclusively in terms of Hartnell’s offensive skill set in relation to RJ’s, as well as the merit of the two contracts. I just have a gut feeling those weren’t the primary considerations.

 

As I watched Berube during the course of this past season, I was struck by how much more demanding he seems to be of his players than other recent coaches, particularly in terms of fitness and discipline. Many times during the a game a Flyer would take an undisciplined penalty at the worst time, and the camera would pan to Berube and you could almost see the smoke coming out of his ears. Very often I thought to myself, “There are some players who aren’t getting it. He’s going to send a few guys packing in the off season.”

 

Nine times out of ten, the player that got him fuming was either Hartnell or Downie. We haven’t heard a peep about resigning Downie, as we all expected, and now Hartnell has been sent packing. It’s just a hunch, but I think this is more about Berube and Hextall saying, “We have certain expectations, and if you want to play here, you’re going to have to meet them.”

 

I’m not ragging on Hartnell’s offensive skills, which if not epic are at least adequate. But he’s undisciplined. I think Hextall’s looking not just for skilled players, but for a certain type of mindset. At least, I hope so.

 

RJ might not score as many points as Hartnell, but if he stays out of the box, he helps keep the penalty killers of the ice and allows them to stay fresh during 5 on 5 play. That may help make up for the difference in scoring.

[Phillygrump]

Right now? No. Absolutely none right now. But in years four and five it does give them an extra $4.75M against the cap. It also gives them an extra $7.5M in real dollars (to give to Bryzgalov).

That's the financial flexibility

 

Sadly in 3 years will still be paying a 38 year old Mark Streit and a 38 year old Vinny Lecavalier each 5MIL a year.

[AJgoal]

 

 

Agreed on the part starting with "The only spot..." but this is WHY you move him.  The only spot for him and his salary are 2nd or 1st line, but he is HORRIBLE on ours.  He's really NOT a top line winger anymore but he simply lacks the skill/smarts required to play on the third and makes entirely too much for the 4th.  So, he's a square peg in a round hole no matter where you put him.  On the Flyers, anyway.   All for the bargain basement price of (say it together now) FOUR POINT SEVEN FIVE MILLION DOLLARS.    

 

I posted this in the trade thread, but advanced stats actually show that While playing with Giroux made Hartnell more effective, playing with Hartnell made Giroux more more effective, if that makes sense. Here's the post (sorry for the cut and paste):

 

Edit: For those that don't know, Corsi is the measure of shots taken, including shots blocked and shots missed. It's used as a means of approximating puck possession for a particular player. Corsi % is equal to the player's Corsi divided by his corsi plus the opposing team's total corsi when he is on the ice. the higher the percentage, the more time the player is possessing the puck vs. his opponents.

 

 

When playing with Giroux 5 on 5, Hartnell's Corsi % (Corsi for vs opponents Corsi) was a 54.4- essentially, over 50% means the player was possessing the puck more than the opponent. When paired with Hartnell, Giroux's C% was 55.7.

 

Where it gets interesting is what happens when they were split up. When separated from Giroux, Hartnell's C% drops to 51.6. A fair drop (2.8 points), but he was still possessing it more than his opponent. Not unexpected when you're no longer playing with Giroux. What is unexpected is that Giroux's Corsi% drops below 50 when Hartnell isn't playing with him to 49.5 - more than a 6 point differential. Note that this is all 5 on 5 play, so time spent on the PP isn't factored in here.

 

Hartnell's stats: http://stats.hockeya...2013-14&sit=5v5

 

Giroux's stats: http://stats.hockeya...2013-14&sit=5v5

 

What does this mean? There are probably several ways to interpret this, but I think the most likely one is an "eye test" statement that has often been used to describe a big body playing with a more skilled guy: Hartnell gave Giroux more room. In return, Giroux controlled the puck better and set up Hartnell for shots.

 

Edited June 24, 2014 by AJgoal

[Vanflyer]

I’m not ragging on Hartnell’s offensive skills, which if not epic are at least adequate. But he’s undisciplined. I think Hextall’s looking not just for skilled players, but for a certain type of mindset. At least, I hope so.

 

Kind of an oxy-moron for hextall to expect players to be disciplined. When you looked up in the dictionary under "losing your cool" there is a picture of Hexy. 

 

That said, and I am not sure who posted it, for as much as Hartnell took undisciplined and albeit sometimes lazy penalties, he was also 8TH in the league in drawing penalties, which greatly off set his "undisciplined" side. 

[Vanflyer]

Yes you have to replace Umberger but by that time one of the kids in the system should be able to step into that role for a fraction of the cost

 

Just for principle sake, I don't think you are going to get a 2nd / 1st line winger at a "fraction of the cost". Now, if you are talking about replacing Umberger, sure. 

[brelic]

I posted this in the trade thread, but advanced stats actually show that While playing with Giroux made Hartnell more effective, playing with Hartnell made Giroux more more effective, if that makes sense. Here's the post (sorry for the cut and paste):

 

Edit: For those that don't know, Corsi is the measure of shots taken, including shots blocked and shots missed. It's used as a means of approximating puck possession for a particular player. Corsi % is equal to the player's Corsi divided by his corsi plus the opposing team's total corsi when he is on the ice. the higher the percentage, the more time the player is possessing the puck vs. his opponents.

 

The shortcoming with CF% is that it gives us a glimpse into Hartnell on Giroux and Jake's line, but it doesn't tell us anything about that line. On the ice, G and Jake were the guys with the puck, and Hartnell tried to create space for them. Plays also died with Hartnell - when he got the puck, you could almost guarantee that the play would end with him, either with a shot, a goal, a turnover, or a giveaway. So how much of the line's success is due to Hartnell?

 

Hartnell's stats away from G mostly reflect his time with Schenn and Simmonds. Those two guys had better CF% scores with Hartnell than without him. And Hartnell had better stats away from those guys... but when he was away from those guys, he was on the top line! I think Hartnell's numbers are inflated because of who he's playing with. Give it about 25 games this year and look at his CF% stats in Columbus - that should give us an indication as to Hartnell's influence.

 

If you consider who G played with when away from his top line mates (and we're only talking 5v5 here), he took many shifts with the 4th line - either late in games, or when a player was down - and played with Schenn and Lecavalier who both have terrible CF% numbers and dragged him down. 

 

 

Interesting tidbit from looking this stuff up:

Raffl's CF% with Giroux is 56.1, the highest forward next to Jake (56.2). With Brayden Schenn, Giroux's CF% was 40%! 

[fanaticV3.0]

I agree wholeheartedly with what Meltzer writes:

 

Nevertheless, this trade perplexes me a bit, unless it is the first of multiple moves. 

Umberger's cap hit ($4.6 million) is not that much lower than Hartnell's ($4.75 million) and his contract runs through 2016-17, so this trade cannot be characterized as one that has significant cap-related advantages. Hartnell and Umberger are both 32 years old. 

If the draft pick had been a higher one, I would have understood the benefit immediately. If Philly had gotten an extra second-round pick or some such, the deal could be explained as general manager Ron Hextall starting to collect assets. Umberger is strictly a third-line player, albeit a good one. The pick the Flyers got is a negligible additional asset in exchange for someone who has been a first-line left winger on the club and has been part of several successful line combinations over the years. 

Umberger is a definite upgrade over Steve Downie as a fit on the third line with Sean Couturier and Matt Read. He wins a lot of battles and usually plays a disciplined game, whereas Downie has rarely done the latter in his NHL and was not doing much of the former this past season. 

Now the big question: Who will be the Flyers new first line left winger? As of now, the job may go to Brayden Schenn, along with Hartnell's role on the top power play unit. If that's the case, it means the Flyers will be in the market for another top-six forward.

We shall see in the days and weeks to come what Hextall has planned. 

 

We shall see....

 

That's interesting to me, because for a while now I've thought that Schenn is not a center.