Ken Holland and the Timing of Emergence

[SpikeDDS]

I think of how much difference there is between where the Red Wings are right now vs. where they were before last season, and it's just incredible the difference. Certainly there has been an infusion of talented youth. That much we kind of expected. Tats. Nyquist. Sheahan. Mrazek. Glendening. There is absolutely no question that these guys have made a significant impact in our improvement and in our forecast for the future. Even in the environment and attitude in the dressing room. It's different this year.

Remember how stuck in the mud it felt like we were when we lost out on Suter and Parise? And Holland didn't make ANY major moves after that, really. (I can't recall if he got Weiss after that, but I think he did, so OK, one thing.)

But what has truly amazed me this year is how many of the players who have been playing a few seasons, for different reasons, have upped their games to the highest level of their careers:

Abdelkader

Helm

Howard

Quincey

Smith

In some ways, Datsyuk, scoring-wise

These guys are making Holland look even more like a genius, because they are all peaking at the same time. And when you add that to the obvious talent we are seeing from the aforementioned young guys, this is THE BEST POSSIBLE scenario for making an argument for Babcock to stay--because we are poised to win, and to keep winning for the foreseeable future.

It is uncanny the timing of the emergence of the great play of all of these players all at once. So many of us wanted Holland to sell the store for free agents, and got on him for not making moves. But somehow, I think he knew that these guys had these abilities and just needed enough time to develop them, so he stood pat. He let Damien Brunner go, which hurt a little, but was SMART!

And yet only Howard was chosen for the All-Star game. (Let the record show that I am GLAD that none of our guys are going as of now. Let 'em rest. Nike and Tats will get there in future years.) the balance of this team is REALLY getting interesting now. Who do you defend with your top guys? Pav and Z? Or Nike and Tats? That is now a legitimate question, and there's no way I would have believed at the beginning of last year that I would be saying that halfway through this season. MAYBE with Pav and Z split I might have believed that, but with the support of all of these other players, it legitimizes that question.

The "arrival" of Kyle Quincey cannot be understated. Probably more than any other player, he is the one that I was wishing Holland would move, and yet he resigned him...and he has become one of our most if not our most consistent D-men. I would NEVER have believed I'd be typing that now at the beginning of last year. NO WAY! And yet Holland probably said more positive things about Quincey than anyone else did back then. He believed in Q, even before the evidence started pouring in, when almost no one else did, including me.

Holland has been praised, and rightly so, for leading one of the if not THE best scouting teams out there. But I think it is well past time that we acknowledge his wisdom in resisting the dump-and-buy temptation, which I know he was feeling the pressure to do then. He really is a smart GM, and the emergence of our non-rookie players' play is a testament to his wisdom.

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

I think it all comes down to patience, Spike.

 

Really...same was said of Steve Yzerman when the Bolts were floundering aroung...

"Why doesn't Stevie Y make a move?" , "Why doesn't give up a few prospects for a defenseman or two?", etc, etc....

 

Now everyone sings the praises of Yzerman because he hung onto the bulk of his prospects, let the guys who made the big club play and let others develop in Jrs and the AHL....all the while continuing to draft smart, shaving off dead weight here and there, THEN making some moves to acquire some established names.

 

Seems the same thing is going on with your Red Wings.

 

I think Holland pretty much knew what he had in the pipeline with the team and simply did NOT feel the need to push the panic button and jettison picks, prospects, or young players simply because some of the fanbase and media were screaming that "he needs to do something".

 

Crazy thing is, I think this whole patience thing is born from the Detroit organization as a whole...and something Yzerman has brought over to the Lightning.

 

I think given the talent involved, the Red Wings will be fine.

I guess its no surprise that both the Bolts and Wings are pretty much going in the same sorts of directions:

Both have smart patient GM's, both are reaping the benefits of good scouting and very good minor league talent, and both are willing to take their lumps in the short term, while setting up the franchises for long term future success.

[SpikeDDS]

@TropicalFruitGirl26

That is certainly true of the prospects, but my point was on the veteran player side. I'm talking about players, like Kyle Quincey, who have been in the league for few years and whose development just seemed to stagnate and plateau. Like Justin Abdelkader too. More Q than Abby though. Holland dumped Quincey and then got him back. When he did, most of us were thinking: "Kenny, what are you thinking?" And then not only getting him back, but with only a small uptick in his play giving him a new deal, for a GOOD bit more than his play to that point was worth. And as he did so was saying that "Quincey is coming."

I don't know how he is able to see these kinds of things, but I give him credit. It is easier to see the potential of young players and believe in that. It is harder when it is not-so-young players who have not yet shown that they can play at a higher level.

And in the balance of that, not, say, dumping Q and committing to develop Oullet, for example. Instead he hangs on to Q, and STILL develops X, and now he's got BOTH, and they are both playing better than you might expect.

He just seems to have a sixth sense for knowing potential that many of us cannot see. Not that he has been perfect, as the Hossa/Franzen decision has repeatedly demonstrated, as has the emergence of Val Filpula. But I'm not sure that Fils would have ever found the level of play he showed last year for the Bolts in the a Winged Wheel uniform. Maybe, but unlikely.

I agree with you about your GM. Yzerman is also a VERY smart man, and he's a very DETERMINED man. It was very evident last year at the Winter Classic, where although he appreciated being asked to participate (well, duh!) and so he finally agreed to do it, it almost and probably actually WAS a distraction for him. He is focused on building the Bolts into a winner again. Don't underestimate his determination. His knee will testify to that. LOUDLY! But it's not like he hasn't made any big moves--Callahan for St. Louis, anyone? ;-) Kenny Holland's "biggest" acquisition was getting Weiss. You would expect more of a change for the Bolts with a move like Stevie's.

[briere48]

i think coaching and goaltending makes a huge difference your team, holland is not affraid to play youth and babcock knows how to play the young talent, if it wasnt for him your team would be bad as us. we have a good goalie but our coaching stinks.

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

An interesting note on the Quincey thing:

 

At one point, Yzerman and the Bolts actually acquired Quincey from the Avs in a deal that sent Steve Downie to Colorado.

Of course, Quincey never saw the light of day in a Bolts uniform as he was promptly flipped by Yzerman over to Detroit.

 

At the time, the Bolts' defensive core was woeful and many in the fanbase felt a guy like Quincey would help stabilize the situation....and when Stevie Y turned around and sent him to Detroit, many Bolts fans were outraged and some even were saying that Yzerman was "doing favors for his old organization" by plucking a defenseman the Wings wanted from the Avs (who probably would NOT have dealt him Detroit), then sending him the Wings' way.

 

They questioned Yzerman's commitment to the TB organization going so far as to say things like "once a Wing always a Wing, and he is using the Tampa job to get back to Detroit".

 

All ridiculous of course.

 

But the whole Quincey/Downie thing ended up with the Bolts getting picks that they turned into either solid prospects or used to acquire players like a Ben Bishop...meanwhile, at the time, the Wings ended up with a veteran defenseman they wanted.

 

The Quincey deal may not have worked out as Holland had hoped, but I think that was a case where perhaps allying himself with Yzerman so that both ended up with something they wanted at the time was the prudent thing to do.

 

Just goes to show how very little us fans looking at things from the outside really understand about how things work behind the scenes.

 

As fans, we certainly are within our rights to opine and criticize...its what we do...but THANK HEAVENS for smart guys like Holland and Yzerman.

 

For every arrogant GM like a Burke for instance, good to know there are guys who really "get it" like the GM's in Detroit and Tampa Bay.

 

Evaluating the value of veterans can be a tough thing for GM's.

Many times, I think its just something that you look at a guy's track record, probably their personalities as well, and then decide..."is this the type of guy I want around my young players?"

 

Even though that vet may not be particularly productive on the ice, but if he somehow bolsters younger players confidence by helping them OFF the ice, during practices, and while on road trips, then that vet has paid dividends over the long haul for the organization.

Unfortunately, the ONLY people who will ever really know how valuable a guy like Quincey or others of his ilk are to an organization are the front office and the teammates who work with him on a regular basis.

 

Very few fans will ever see the true value of a guy like that (if there is any to begin with), and many of us will say "Well that was a failure" if he doesn't appear to serve any purpose that is plain to see.

[SpikeDDS]

@briere48

That is easy to say now, but just a couple of years ago, guys like @yave1964 were ALL OVER Babs for not benching our older, underperforming players and giving some young talent a shot. Even if it they might not quite have been ready, it would have likely lit a fire under their bench-sitting a$$e$, and spurred them to get determined to play better. Until last season, when Babcock was FORCED to put these young guys in, he was very reticent to do so in favor of guys like Cleary and Bertuzzi and Hudler. So it hasn't always been that way. Circumstance really forced him to adapt, and to his credit, not only did he do it because he had too, but since then he is now doing it as a part of how he is coaching by choice. I DO think that Babcock has now shifted his style of coaching now to fit the talent pool he has, and has shown that he can coach every bit as well with a team of young, developing talent as he can with a team of All-Stars, like Team Canada, and right now somewhere in between, where he has some of both.

It's easy to be a Scotty Bowman who, when disciplining top-liners like Brendan Shanahan by benching him for a game or two, had "lowly" fourth liners like Luc Robitaille and Igor Larionov who could be brought up and bring in a rookie like Datsyuk. ;-) It will never be like that again. To Babcock's credit, he has been a good coach even with different types of teams, with much lower levels of talent, which Scotty really never saw in the last 2/3 of his career if not more of it than that.

[yave1964]

@SpikeDDS

 

Great read Spike.

 

And the pipeline is far from dry.Athanasiou looks like a magician ready to step in soon between a couple of the talented wingers, Mantha is going to be another goal scoring machine and Sproul is a right handed (!) d-man with a heavy shot. Throw in this years first rounder Dylan Larkin, a local boy who just dominated in the junior tourney, and well, the system is still in full flower.

[Old School Hockey]

I hope Kenny doesn't trade anything big for Tyler Myers!!!

Myers just hasn't impressed.

[SpikeDDS]

I hope Kenny doesn't trade anything big for Tyler Myers!!!

Myers just hasn't impressed.

I agree with you, but I also wonder what good leadership and coaching could do for a player like him. It probably wouldn't change him overnight, but I think if he had a different environment, i could see him being a different player.

 

You're right in saying don't give away the store just to take that kind of chance, though.

[SpikeDDS]

@SpikeDDS

 

Great read Spike.

 

And the pipeline is far from dry.Athanasiou looks like a magician ready to step in soon between a couple of the talented wingers, Mantha is going to be another goal scoring machine and Sproul is a right handed (!) d-man with a heavy shot. Throw in this years first rounder Dylan Larkin, a local boy who just dominated in the junior tourney, and well, the system is still in full flower.

 

True dat!

 

It's possible that in a couple of years, we may have some difficult choices to make about which players to keep/play, because we don't want to get rid of anybody, but if we don't we will just lose somebody without getting anything in return.

 

Then again, the old saying: You can never have too much young talent.

 

I think we should test that theory! ;-)

[JR Ewing]

Ken Holland is not perfect, of course, but I very much respect him as a General Manager. For a long time now (years and years), I ask myself a simple question when the Edmonton Oilers make a move of some sort: "Would Ken Holland do that?"

It's a fun/depressing game to play:

--> With only two NHL centres on the roster, the Oilers decide to give those minutes to a teenager (who himself said he's not ready) and a career minor league.

Would Ken Holland do that?

--> After fleecing the Blues to get David Perron, they traded him to PIT for a 4th line LW and a late 1st round pick.

Would Ken Holland do that?

--> The Oilers repeatedly trade players from the roster without having an appropriate player to take his minutes.

Would Ken Holland do that?

--> The Oilers have, several times now, been shown to be ignorant of rules regarding waiver call-ups (Magnus Paajarvi), or if they're permitted by the CBA to sign an undrafted camp invitee (Vladimir Tkachev), ultimately publicly embarrassing themselves.

Would Ken Holland do that?

--> The Oilers have shown a consistent pattern of rushing teenagers to the NHL, wondering why they don't develop as hoped, before finally trading them off for diminished return.

Would Ken Holland do that?

You get the idea. He would do NONE of these things... He's a hell of a GM.

[yave1964]

@JR Ewing

 

Holland drives me nuts in the regards that he is the Hockey version of (Stand) Pat Gillick, a hellova GM who is loath to trade. Rumors around Motown are that the Wings are scouting Petry (as well as a half a dozen other GMs I am sure).from your boys. We definitely have the pieces to offer to get a deal done and the cap room. I love the kid, he plays the game the right way, although truthfully he has had some wretched games against my Wings. I would love to see him in a Wings uni, I just hope Holland doesn't ask, What would Pat Gillick do?

[JR Ewing]

@JR Ewing

 

Holland drives me nuts in the regards that he is the Hockey version of (Stand) Pat Gillick, a hellova GM who is loath to trade. Rumors around Motown are that the Wings are scouting Petry (as well as a half a dozen other GMs I am sure).from your boys. We definitely have the pieces to offer to get a deal done and the cap room. I love the kid, he plays the game the right way, although truthfully he has had some wretched games against my Wings. I would love to see him in a Wings uni, I just hope Holland doesn't ask, What would Pat Gillick do?

I'm an old Blue Jays fan and found Pat Gillick's time with the club to be alright in my books.

-------------------

It's the old story that your best trade is often the one you didn't make. I was going to mention Petry in my post, because I've seen the same rumours regarding Petry, and have seen Elliote Friedman say that he'd be shocked if he remains an Oiler. Jim Matheson writes that, though Petry wants to remain an Oiler, that he hasn't even received so much as a phone call for contract talks. So... It's happening, and Detroit definitely has the pieces.

Do you get better when you trade off your best defenseman, and his replacement will most likely be a 20 year old rookie (Nurse) who, though talented is extremely short on development? It's obviously not possible.

And why? Because Oilers.

I doubt Ken Holland would do that, but fans LOVE trades, so I get that it often drives them nuts. Take it from an Oilers fan whose primary experience with trades is that it's often more like when the doctor snaps on a rubber glove and tells you to cough than a good thing... Be careful what you ask for with more trades.

[SpikeDDS]

@JR Ewing

 

Holland drives me nuts in the regards that he is the Hockey version of (Stand) Pat Gillick, a hellova GM who is loath to trade. Rumors around Motown are that the Wings are scouting Petry (as well as a half a dozen other GMs I am sure).from your boys. We definitely have the pieces to offer to get a deal done and the cap room. I love the kid, he plays the game the right way, although truthfully he has had some wretched games against my Wings. I would love to see him in a Wings uni, I just hope Holland doesn't ask, What would Pat Gillick do?

Boy, I gotta admit that my only exposure to Petry has been in his games against the Wings, and--like you said--he has played pretty badly in those games. So when I see you say what you said, @yave1964, I'm intrigued.

 

So if we get him, do we just have to ban his dad from coming to the Joe so that he plays well? ;-)

[SpikeDDS]

--> The Oilers have shown a consistent pattern of rushing teenagers to the NHL, wondering why they don't develop as hoped, before finally trading them off for diminished return.
Would Ken Holland do that?

 

This one's not so fair to your GM. Kenny Holland has had teams with talent levels that dwarf even some of the best teams in history (2002). When you have that kind of surplus of talent, you don't have to rush ANYBODY! Your point that Holland does let them develop some before calling them up is true, but it's true in part because there isn't necessity. Kinda like Babcock's comment about why he's never been fired at the NHL level in his career: "I've had good players." That helps a lot.

 

The Oilers haven't had the kind of talent we've had since I was in high school, maybe even junior high. And it's a LOT tougher to be patient when your team sucks and fans are impatient.

 

Heck, Holland isn't immune. The Detroit fans had SUCH a hard on to keep the playoff streak going two seasons ago that he dealt Jarnkrok away (I think with a pick maybe?) for Legwand, because he was feeling the pressure to make a move. Expensive rental, eh?

 

So give your GM a LITTLE break on this particular point. Your other points are valid, of course.

 

I definitely prefer to stay a Wings fan. You might want to consider changing. At least we aren't in the Western Conference any more, so you wouldn't have to feel quite as much betrayal! ;-D

[JR Ewing]

This one's not so fair to your GM. Kenny Holland has had teams with talent levels that dwarf even some of the best teams in history (2002). When you have that kind of surplus of talent, you don't have to rush ANYBODY! Your point that Holland does let them develop some before calling them up is true, but it's true in part because there isn't necessity. Kinda like Babcock's comment about why he's never been fired at the NHL level in his career: "I've had good players." That helps a lot.

 

The Oilers haven't had the kind of talent we've had since I was in high school, maybe even junior high. And it's a LOT tougher to be patient when your team sucks and fans are impatient.

 

Heck, Holland isn't immune. The Detroit fans had SUCH a hard on to keep the playoff streak going two seasons ago that he dealt Jarnkrok away (I think with a pick maybe?) for Legwand, because he was feeling the pressure to make a move. Expensive rental, eh?

So give your GM a LITTLE break on this particular point. Your other points are valid, of course.

I will cut the Oilers slack with two teenagers, and they were NOT players I was referring to when I talk about rushing young players.

-Taylor Hall, who has been pushing the river since about 7 games into his NHL career.

-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who was scoring a point-per-game as a scrawny 18 year old and has worked to become a hell of a two-way centre.

Those guys weren't rushed, but were ready to play in the NHL, and it was fine to give them at bats. That's it. Other than that, there's an established history of them rushing young players, almost always in key positions, and always in a position to not succeed. Also, note when it started happening: when the team's record collapsed.

------

I was going to do a big write-up about why you can NOT cut slack to Oilers management, giving a player-by-player example of what a bad idea it is to rush kids before they're ready to play in the NHL, but will sum it up with

 

(ahem)

THE NHL IS NOT A DEVELOPMENT LEAGUE!!!

And if you treat as such, you get the Oilers record since the first lockout. You get losing. You get players that never really develop very much; and look more like players with 1 year of experience 5 times rather than players with 5 years of experience. Even if you're rebuilding; even if you don't much talent, you don't sacrifice the development of young players to this model. They didn't do it before they stunk, and they need to stop it now, with Leon Draisaitl being the last kid to victimize that way.

It's a stupid, idiotic, and preposterously obtuse thing to do. Full-stop.

 

I definitely prefer to stay a Wings fan. You might want to consider changing. At least we aren't in the Western Conference any more, so you wouldn't have to feel quite as much betrayal! ;-D

No. I'm an Oilers fan. It was easy when they spent my later teen years winning Cups, and it can be damned frustrating now, I'm not changing my team. That's just the way it is. There was a period of time for almost 25 years, when practically every team in the NHL qualified for the playoffs, and the Red Wings still only made it twice (1970 & 1977) and it had to be rough for the fans that stuck with them.

But those folks who did were the real stars in Detroit.

[SpikeDDS]

@JR Ewing

Dude, did you SEE the smiley face at the end of my suggestion to switch teams? I wasn't serious at all!!

I became a Red Wings fan the year they drafted Steve Yzerman. They still sucked at that point. Worst team in hockey. The Dead Things! But Yzerman was the first hope we had in years, and obviously it was legitimate. I wasn't a hockey fan before that, mostly because they sucked, and the Tigers were good, so I truly missed the Dark Ages of Red Wing history other than the last year. If the Wings go dark again, I'll remain a Red Wing fan.

Switch teams?! I can't believe you thought I was serious! LOL!

My first point was NOT to in any way praise your GM's. I did make sure to try to say that by agreeing with EVERY other point you made about them. Certainly not being fully guilty of that one charge doesn't legitimize them when they are guilty and DANG GUILTY of the others, does it? And even still somewhat guilty of the one that even Holland does when the heat's on.

But I did have to be honest (and you should recognize) that even Holland WOULD make a bad trade decision because of pressure from the fan base to "do something." And let's face it, the pressure to do something in your case is MUCH higher than ours was. For that, I empathize with them a little bit. It doesn't excuse them though.

[flyercanuck]

@SpikeDDS

 

Great read Spike.

 

And the pipeline is far from dry.Athanasiou looks like a magician ready to step in soon between a couple of the talented wingers, Mantha is going to be another goal scoring machine and Sproul is a right handed (!) d-man with a heavy shot. Throw in this years first rounder Dylan Larkin, a local boy who just dominated in the junior tourney, and well, the system is still in full flower.

 

 

Don't forget Nastasiak. He's a local kid who's now captain of Owen Sound. Holland stole him in the 2nd round in 2013. He's a gritty talented smart winger who I was surprised wasn't on Canadas WJ team.

[JR Ewing]

@JR Ewing

Dude, did you SEE the smiley face at the end of my suggestion to switch teams? I wasn't serious at all!!

I became a Red Wings fan the year they drafted Steve Yzerman. They still sucked at that point. Worst team in hockey. The Dead Things! But Yzerman was the first hope we had in years, and obviously it was legitimate. I wasn't a hockey fan before that, mostly because they sucked, and the Tigers were good, so I truly missed the Dark Ages of Red Wing history other than the last year. If the Wings go dark again, I'll remain a Red Wing fan.

Switch teams?! I can't believe you thought I was serious! LOL!

Oh, ok. I wasn't sure. I thought the smiley was chuckling about not being in the same conference as each other any longer. Either way, don't worry, I wasn't offended at all. I've spent almost the last 25 years watching the Oilers vacillate between being stripped down for parts and struggling, or either just being a laughing stock, and I've had a number of people (even some here on this site) suggest switching allegiances, so I thought it was another case.

My first point was NOT to in any way praise your GM's. I did make sure to try to say that by agreeing with EVERY other point you made about them. Certainly not being fully guilty of that one charge doesn't legitimize them when they are guilty and DANG GUILTY of the others, does it? And even still somewhat guilty of the one that even Holland does when the heat's on.

But I did have to be honest (and you should recognize) that even Holland WOULD make a bad trade decision because of pressure from the fan base to "do something." And let's face it, the pressure to do something in your case is MUCH higher than ours was. For that, I empathize with them a little bit. It doesn't excuse them though.

Oh, I get that you weren't praising the Oilers for rushing teenager after teenager. In fact, I think we basically agree on these points. I'm just saying that it's inexcusable, particularly when even Stevie Wonder can see that it hasn't been working. Like I said about Holland, he isn't perfect, but he's a hell of a GM. One hundred percent of NHL General Managers have trades and/or decisions they'd like back. In Holland's case, he has a lot less than most.