New Kids on the Block: Senators year in review

[yave1964]

PREASEASON EXPECTATIONS: Not much. After a surprising season two years ago, the Senators fell off the rails last year. With financial troubles facing the organization, not much was expected.

 

FINAL RECORD: 43-26-13 99 points 7th in the Eastern conference.

 

LOW POINT OF THE YEAR: The team got off to a sluggish start and coach Paul McLean was fired on December 8th with an 11-11-5 record. They continued to stumble along, on February 16th Robin Lehner got shelled by the Hurricanes and the team fell to 22-23-10.

 

HIGH POINT OF THE YEAR: Everything else. 27 year old rookie Andrew Hammond stepped in and the Senators were insane down the stretch, going 21-3-3 down the stretch to steal an unikely playoff spot.

 

WHAT WENT RIGHT: KIDS, lots of kids. Hammond although old for a rookie went 20-1-2 with a .941 save pct. Mark Stone (28-36-64) and Mike Hoffman (28 goals) were a brilliant matching pair. Mika Zibinejad established himself. Pageau and Lazar got their feet wet at the NHL level and didn't embarrass themselves. The defense is loaded with hard hitting talented kids such as Ceci, Wiercoich, Gryba and Boroweicki all showed that they are ready to shine. Young Vets such as Karlsson who led the team in scoring and Turris who has become the heart of the team also shined.

 

WHAT WENT WRONG: The veterans slipped, giving the kids a chance to prove themselves. Legwand was rotten. Neil and Phillips who have been Senators longer than John McCain seem to be at the end of the road. MacArthur and Ryan signed long term deals before the year and both were below average. Michalek only had 13 goals. Zach Smith was rotten and then hurt. Craig Anderson was average, Robin Lehner was downright horrible. Alex Chiasson who came over as one of the main pieces for Spezza from the Stars never got going. Marc Methot could not stay healthy.

 

STRANGE STAT OF THE YEAR: The five leading goal scorers on the team, Stone, Hoffman, Turris, Karlsson and Zibenejad are all twenty five years old or younger.

 

UFAs:

Erik Condra is the only UFA of any relevance

 

TOP PROSPECTS FOR 2015-16:

Lazar and Pageau got their feet wet, both should crack top nine or better roles next year. Chris Wideman may crack the lineup on the back end if one of the other kids take a step back.

 

OFFSEASON QUESTION MARKS: Did they catch lightning in a bottle or were they for real? Can they find a taker for Michalek or Legwand? Are Phillips and Neil ready to retire or if not, will the team take them back?

[jammer2]

  What a great time for Hammond to set up and take control of the goaltending. Right at a time when their goalie of the future, Lehner fell flat on his face....the Hamburgular stood tall and rarely lost in an unbelieveable run down the stretch.....helping the Sens make their inproable run at a playoff spot. Don't know how things are gonna shake out with Anderson, but at the very least, the Sens are left with a nice little dynamic duo in the nets.

 

 Milan Michalek might be the worst winger on a top line in the league. He's totally lost what little talent he once had. It will be hard to unload him, but the effort is going to have to be made.

[ruxpin]

This was an incredibly fun team to watch down the stretch.   I've never particularly liked the Senators, but they became the team I was rooting for through the second half.  It helped that I had Stone, Turris, and Hammond in fantasy (fantasy hockey really does strange things to fans who traditionally cheered for only one team).  But they really were fun to watch.

 

The for real vs. lightning in a bottle question is a difficult one to answer.  Personally, I wonder about goaltending.   I think they are set up front except for the couple of blemishes @yave1964 and @jammer2 mentioned.

 

But I don't believe in Hammond yet.  I do think he caught a pretty good wave and rode it quite well for as long as he could.  I'll be interested in seeing whether that continues next year, but I am betting against it.  And I don't mean that I'm wondering if he keeps up the clip he was running the last 25 games he played.  That's an easy bet against, because he really did play out of his mind.  But will he continue to be an above average goalie?  I think that's doubtful.

 

Anderson will likely get the reigns, but while he's good, I'm not that impressed.   He may be enough, though.

 

They should be in the thick of the playoff race next year.  But barring injury, so should Columbus.  And you have to think Boston should bounce back.  It should be a very crowded field next year.

[JagerMeister]

Dont expect Hammond to do what he did last year...the guy had a cinderella year. 

[jammer2]

@JagerMeister  Hammonds stats might regress a bit, but he is the real deal....and he will show that next year. You don't play the last 25 games under such stress, and lose only one of them...if he had even 3 losses instead of 1...the Sens don't make the playoffs. He had no margin for error....that is no fluke..that is calm under pressure. He's an excellent goalie!!

[ScottM]

I'm a few days late jumping in here thanks to being overloaded for most of this week, but I've been waiting for this thread. It's no secret around here that I'm VERY excited about next year. I expected almost nothing this year and got a dream ride over the last third of the season for a miracle playoff birth. I don't think it's possible for any Senators fan not to be excited unless they're absolute pessimists.

 

I'll start with my negatives just to get them out of the way. I want more from Ryan and Chiasson. Maybe it was bad luck or whatever, but Ryan simply went far too long doing far too little down the stretch. And like @yave1964 said, Chiasson needs to give us more to have good compensation for Spezza. I do think we'll get more next year though. Bobby Ryan is too good of a scorer to have back to back years like he just had, and Chiasson has only been in the league for three years. I think he'll be in a great environment to develop next season. There's always a late bloomer in every group of youngsters. Maybe he's the one in this group. As for Michalek, I've never been completely sold on him. An upgrade would be nice.

 

Now positives: where do I start? Andrew Hammond would seem to be the most obvious place. I don't know what to say other than, WOW! I think @jammer2 is right about Hammond. No, we won't see the same kind of numbers out of him next season, but he'll be far better than he has been outside of this year in the NHL. I disagree that Anderson was average. He ranked 7th in save percentage. The reason his goals against average was so high is that he had a bad team in front of him for a large part of the season. After Hammond burst onto the scene, the team seemed to think that the Hamburglar was their good luck charm and didn't seem to give Anderson the same effort until he gave them that playoff shutout. I say all of that to say this, I see our goaltending as being a positive. I feel better about it than I have in a while. Of course, everyone knows our luck with goalies. Lol. Anyway, continuing, Stone and Hoffman are other obvious plusses. I believe that they will establish themselves as elite scorers next season. I see 35 goal seasons coming for both of them, and I wouldn't put 40 out of the question. Kyle Turris and Mika Zabinejad seemed to settle down late as well and definitely contributed their fair share. I think Turris and Stone were good for very good for each other. Pageau and Lazar deserve a mention here as well. They're probably never going to be big stars, but they will have plenty to contribute in the future.

 

Defense was a big problem in the first part of the season, but I think that was one of the biggest areas of improvement in the late season I do wish Methot would have stayed healthy a little more (or a lot more), but Borowiecki, Gryba, Ceci, and Weircioch looked greatly improved late. I think we'll have a good defensive corps in place for next year. I think Karlsson proved his value quite well. Many in the media seemed to think he wouldn't be able to give the team the leadership it needed. He was one of the few things I felt good about coming into the year, however, and after a bit of a rocky start, I thought he was incredible down the stretch. He's not only a good leader for the blueliners, but for the entire team. I don't think we could have asked for much more from him.

 

It might be noticed that I didn't say anything about Neil, Phillips, and Legwand yet. To put it simply, I think those guys are pretty much done. I really hate to say that, because I've always liked Legwand, and as a longtime Sens fan, I'm obviously rather attached to Neil and Phillips, but I guess all good things must come to an end.

 

All in all, I see a lot more good than bad in this team right now. Maybe I'm looking at it through rose-colored glasses, but they made it hard not to believe in them. I for one, appreciate the run they gave us very much.

[JagerMeister]

@JagerMeister  Hammonds stats might regress a bit, but he is the real deal....and he will show that next year. You don't play the last 25 games under such stress, and lose only one of them...if he had even 3 losses instead of 1...the Sens don't make the playoffs. He had no margin for error....that is no fluke..that is calm under pressure. He's an excellent goalie!!

So far, you have said that about every goalie who has had one great year this year, even when they have not even proved they could keep their decent goaltending consistent. Atleast Dubynk was not so bad, and just mediocre during his other years, but Hammond has not given us enough time to judge if he is a regularly consistent starter. If you mean `real deal` as in legitimate starter, then I dont necessarily agree with you. His AHL stats are underwhelming for AHL standards, and this guy appeared out of nowhere and had a great run, but goalies have great stretches all the time, and then fade into obscurity, or become known for being one hit wonder players...

[ruxpin]

@JagerMeister Hammonds stats might regress a bit, but he is the real deal....and he will show that next year. You don't play the last 25 games under such stress, and lose only one of them...if he had even 3 losses instead of 1...the Sens don't make the playoffs. He had no margin for error....that is no fluke..that is calm under pressure. He's an excellent goalie!!

I don't understand what the "he's the real deal" is based on. Here's a guy who simply sucked in the minors and only got a chance because they were out of options.

I like the guy. I'm really happy for him and the Sens were fun to watch and he had an incredible run for two months. But entire career is probably more indicative of prognosis than a two month hot stretch.

Ask Michael Leighton.

He may settle into a nice little career but he'll probably be average at best.

[jammer2]

@JagerMeister  I realize, for every legit rookie tender there is a Jim Carey....and who was that stiff that had the good year for Boston and ended up getting traded to the Leafs?  I'm just going by what I'm seeing....one of the first thing I look for in a tender is how he tracks the puck....and how he anticipates. Just saying, Hammond passes the smell test in both of these skills. He's got a nice glove and active pads...covers down low quite nice....a lot to like...not much to not like.

 

 

 Perhaps his defense in the AHL sucked?

[JagerMeister]

@JagerMeister  I realize, for every legit rookie tender there is a Jim Carey....and who was that stiff that had the good year for Boston and ended up getting traded to the Leafs?  I'm just going by what I'm seeing....one of the first thing I look for in a tender is how he tracks the puck....and how he anticipates. Just saying, Hammond passes the smell test in both of these skills. He's got a nice glove and active pads...covers down low quite nice....a lot to like...not much to not like.

 

 

 Perhaps his defense in the AHL sucked?

The defense in Ottawa was nothing special either, and during some moments, the defense was even terrible.

 

And plus, its not just his GAA that was terrible, it was his save percentage as well, which has more to do with individual goaltending than the team defense.

[jammer2]

@JagerMeister  Ahhh, yes, the Bruin turned Leaf was Andrew Raycroft...who much like Jim Carrey set the league on fire as a rookie....only to fall flat on his face. I don't see this happening with Dubnyk or Hammond...but time well tell!!

[JagerMeister]

@JagerMeister  Ahhh, yes, the Bruin turned Leaf was Andrew Raycroft...who much like Jim Carrey set the league on fire as a rookie....only to fall flat on his face. I don't see this happening with Dubnyk or Hammond...but time well tell!!

You're right Jammy, time will tell that you are, in fact, wrong

[J0e Th0rnton]

So O'Connor signed with Ottawa? Guaranteed AHL starter time I guess. He did say he wanted to go to a team that would help him develop

 

Who is on the way out? Anderson they should keep in all honestly.

Lehner concussion issues aside, looks like he could be a #1 down the road.

Hammond is a wild card. Not projected to do much, but had an incredible run and won the hearts of the fans. Is currently UFA.

 

The fans are going to demand Hamburglar be resigned, but he is the one they should be letting go.

 

Sharks would take any of them over Niemi haha

[ruxpin]

You're right Jammy, time will tell that you are, in fact, wrong

I think we basically agree on something. I'm not sure what to do with that (other than take inventory of my position to determine where I went wrong. I can't think of anything so...)

[ruxpin]

So O'Connor signed with Ottawa? Guaranteed AHL starter time I guess. He did say he wanted to go to a team that would help him develop

Who is on the way out? Anderson they should keep in all honestly.

Lehner concussion issues aside, looks like he could be a #1 down the road.

Hammond is a wild card. Not projected to do much, but had an incredible run and won the hearts of the fans. Is currently UFA.

The fans are going to demand Hamburglar be resigned, but he is the one they should be letting go.

Sharks would take any of them over Niemi haha

I agree with much of that although Lehner looked like crap before the injury.

I think they can't not sign Hammond since he almost has cult status but I wouldn't do more than 1-2 years and not for much more than $1.5M/yr.

If they can move Anderson for something decent (St. Louis? SJ? Calgary?) it may not be a bad idea but, in my opinion, it's a tremendous risk.

I'm very suspicious of Hammond.

[ruxpin]

I wonder if Buffalo would be interested in one of the Senator goalies and what they'd be willing to give up.

[yave1964]

Lehner is garbage. At his current pace he will go from being a top prospect straight to a 30 and over beer league. Just a nothing player.

 

Anderson is a heck of a goalie when healthy.

 

Hamburgler, 27 year old goalies have been known to get it and put a career together, not often but every now and then. Tim Thomas comes to mind.

 

Of the three, I would deal Lehner now if it is not too late, I would resign Hammond to back up Anderson and let the new kid start 55-60 games at the AHL. The Senators are forced to make decisions based off monetary concerns rather than Hockey decisions only, so the Sharks or Oilers or one of the teams that is looking for a goalie might be able to pry Anderson off the Sens hands and they may go with Lehner/Hammond to start the year.

[ruxpin]

Lehner is garbage. At his current pace he will go from being a top prospect straight to a 30 and over beer league. Just a nothing player.

 

Anderson is a heck of a goalie when healthy.

 

Hamburgler, 27 year old goalies have been known to get it and put a career together, not often but every now and then. Tim Thomas comes to mind.

 

Of the three, I would deal Lehner now if it is not too late, I would resign Hammond to back up Anderson and let the new kid start 55-60 games at the AHL. The Senators are forced to make decisions based off monetary concerns rather than Hockey decisions only, so the Sharks or Oilers or one of the teams that is looking for a goalie might be able to pry Anderson off the Sens hands and they may go with Lehner/Hammond to start the year.

 

That all sums it up quite nicely.

[J0e Th0rnton]

Lehner is garbage. At his current pace he will go from being a top prospect straight to a 30 and over beer league. Just a nothing player.

 

Anderson is a heck of a goalie when healthy.

 

Hamburgler, 27 year old goalies have been known to get it and put a career together, not often but every now and then. Tim Thomas comes to mind.

 

Of the three, I would deal Lehner now if it is not too late, I would resign Hammond to back up Anderson and let the new kid start 55-60 games at the AHL. The Senators are forced to make decisions based off monetary concerns rather than Hockey decisions only, so the Sharks or Oilers or one of the teams that is looking for a goalie might be able to pry Anderson off the Sens hands and they may go with Lehner/Hammond to start the year.

The problem is, it is a buyers market for goalies. A 2nd round pick is the most the sens can hope to get for Anderson. Mind you, I would give Colorado's 2016 2nd for him in a real hurry.

 

In fact, he was the guy I made a long post about acquiring awhile back.

 

with the Sharks 15-18 million in cap space, I wanted them to.....

Resign Dillon 3x2.5

Resign Karlsson 2x2

Sign Mike Green 5x6

Sign Frolik 5x4.5

And trade COL 2016 2nd for Anderson

 

If not Green, Trade one of Wingels/Nieto+ for a top 4 Dman. Stay the heck away from Franson. Maybe go for Sekera if LA can't resign him.

 

Karlsson/Thornton/Pavelski

Marleau/Couture/Frolik

Hertl/Tierney/Wingels

Goodrow/Smith/Nieto

 

Torres still on LTIR. Brown may play next season in Goodrow's spot

 

Vlasic/Green

Dillon/Burns

Mueller/Braun

 

Anderson

Stalock

 

That's my ideal offseason. That team looks about 1000x better than Last season. Particularly because Red light Niemi is replaced by a real goalie, and that horrid goal leaking pairing of Hannan/Irwin/Tennyson is gone. But not only gone, upgraded!

[yave1964]

@ruxpin@J0e Th0rnton

 

Very much a buyers market for goalies. My opinion is Anderson could be pried loose for a second rounder, if the Sharks offer that my opinion is it would easily be enough to get it done.

[ScottM]

@ruxpin@J0e Th0rnton

 

Very much a buyers market for goalies. My opinion is Anderson could be pried loose for a second rounder, if the Sharks offer that my opinion is it would easily be enough to get it done.

 

The only thing about that is that if we let Anderson go, we're stuck with Lehner (who totally turned me with his horrible play this year), a guy that has shown a lot of potential talent, but hasn't shown that he can do it for a full season (Hammond), and unproven youngsters. I really think we need to hold on to Craig unless we get something very solid in return,

[ruxpin]

The only thing about that is that if we let Anderson go, we're stuck with Lehner (who totally turned me with his horrible play this year), a guy that has shown a lot of potential talent, but hasn't shown that he can do it for a full season (Hammond), and unproven youngsters. I really think we need to hold on to Craig unless we get something very solid in return,

 

Therein lies the risk.  I mean that's nail on head right there.  I'm not sure I would have the stones to get rid of Anderson (pretty sure I don't) and would be very unhappy as a Sens fan if they did.  If it's for a 2nd rounder I don't think I make that move.  If it's for a first rounder I'd think about it, but for me a decent defenseman has to be coming back.  

 

But yave is right, it's not a goalie's market right now.  There are teams that badly need goaltending, but there's several with a glut of them (Tampa, for example).   A second rounder is realistic, but I'd hold out for the 1-4 defenseman for Anderson.   If not, I keep Anderson as starter, Hammond to play backup/split time as 1A, and move Lehner for whatever I can get.

[ScottM]

Therein lies the risk.  I mean that's nail on head right there.  I'm not sure I would have the stones to get rid of Anderson (pretty sure I don't) and would be very unhappy as a Sens fan if they did.  If it's for a 2nd rounder I don't think I make that move.  If it's for a first rounder I'd think about it, but for me a decent defenseman has to be coming back.  

 

But yave is right, it's not a goalie's market right now.  There are teams that badly need goaltending, but there's several with a glut of them (Tampa, for example).   A second rounder is realistic, but I'd hold out for the 1-4 defenseman for Anderson.   If not, I keep Anderson as starter, Hammond to play backup/split time as 1A, and move Lehner for whatever I can get.

 

I couldn't agree with you more. I think you're dead on that we're going to need something significant on defense if we're going to make that deal. I might take a deal for a first-rounder, but I'd be worries we'd get another Alexander Daigle out of it. Hammond may well work out. I won't be surprised if he does, but I don't want to bet the future on a great 25 game span. I know we won't get much for Lehner, but as has been mentioned already in the thread, he seems to be fading fast. If he has another bad year, we may not be able to move him at all regardless of what the market is like for goaltending.

[jammer2]

My opinion is Anderson could be pried loose for a second rounder, if the Sharks offer that my opinion is it would easily be enough to get it done.

 

 I was thinking the exact same thing....although..if I was part of the new Oilers regime, I'd throw my second the Sens way....that would put the Oilers in a great position to make the playoffs....if they could add Anderson AND add Nurse and McDavid.....well, that team just becomes legit right away. Anderson could make a real nice stop gap until the Oilers draft and or develop the goalie that will lead all the kids into greatness. Of course, having Chicrelli in the fold making the calls, rather than MacTavish puts the Oilers in a MUCH stronger position going forward.

[ScottM]

I think the reason I'm so wary about giving Anderson up for a draft pick is two-fold. First, you have no guarantee that a draft pick will pan out, and second, I don't know what we have in goal without him. I personally think Hammond will play well. It may not be as well as his play this past season, but honestly, it doesn't have to be quite as good as it was. I'm just still hung up on the fact that we're going by such a small sample size. I'm definitely not ready to give the reins to Lehner. Also, even if a draft pick pans out and you get a good player, part of me says we've already got enough youth.

 

@jammer2 I do think that's an outstanding scenario for Edmonton, but I'm not sure how I feel about that from our end. It could work, and it could improve the team, but it could also make things very much worse if it doesn't work. I'm still hesitant to move Anderson at all.