Flyers should extend Ghost right now....

[jammer2]

Ghost is scheduled to be RFA for the 2017-18 season. What if he pulls a Johnny Hockey and refuses to sign a bridge deal?  What if he follows up last year with a 70-80 pts 2nd season...this scenario makes him prime offer sheet material. Sure the picks would be great, but you don't let a talent like this walk, even for numerous 1st rounders. The smart play is to extend him right now. Give him 5.5 to 6.5 mill a year for 5-6 years. Pay the kid, don't get into this long drawn out crap.....months of speculation. The thing is, the longer they wait, the more they will have to pay. If Ghost puts up 70-80 pts, he could say I'm not playing until you give me 8 mill a year. These kids have more leverage than they used to in RFA....and the bridge deal is looking like a thing of the past for the true young stars.

[flyercanuck]

I'd really hate to give a 2nd year player (ok, really a 1st year) that kind of contract...but I'm starting to think it may not be such a bad idea. Ideally I'd like to see him keep it up for a few more months, but he looked pretty good on Team NA.

[canoli]

I dunno Jammer it sounds crazy on the face of it but I see the sense of it. He's one of the cornerstones the Flyers absolutely must retain. The only thing that worries me (slightly) is how other teams adjusted to him just by backing off him a bit and it worked. It didn't shut him down completely of course - he's got too much hockey sense + speed for that. But if it were my money I'd wait till Christmas, see how the 1st half of the season goes for him. If he's on track for another good year that's when I call the Brinks trucks in...make him an offer he can't refuse.

 

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

He certainly needs to be signed by mid season.

 

 

And i think he will get a more than fair deal.

 

Flyers need him and they know how hard it is to find Dmen with his skillset.

 

No worries for me.

[murraycraven]

No reason to.... No, no and no...

[Poconono]

That kind of thinking is how we ended up with Read, MacDonald, Umberger, Hartnell, Mike Richards and Jeff Carter signed to huge contracts that we regretted within months.

[OccamsRazor]

51 minutes ago, Poconono said:

That kind of thinking is how we ended up with Read, MacDonald, Umberger, Hartnell, Mike Richards and Jeff Carter signed to huge contracts that we regretted within months.

 

 

Not the same we're talking bridge deal like maybe what Schenn signed.

 

Every deak doesn't have to be for 8 years.

 

They would be fine giving him a 4 year deal.

[jammer2]

3 hours ago, Poconono said:

That kind of thinking is how we ended up with Read, MacDonald, Umberger, Hartnell, Mike Richards and Jeff Carter signed to huge contracts that we regretted within months.

 

 The problem with that analysis is that Read, MacDonald, Ummby and Harts were all horrible players, or at least had major holes in their games, hell Harts could barely stand on skates the year he got his deal....lol.

 

 D-men with a harder shot than Ghost in the league

1)P.K Subban

2)Shea Weber

 

 

D-men who can skate better than Ghost in the league

1)P.K Subban

2)Duncan Keith

3)Drew Doughty

 

D-men who stickhandle better than Ghost in the league....

1)maybe 2 or 3...

 

The point I'm making is this is a SPECIAL elite talent we are talking about, a kid who is clearly among the league leaders in numerous skills. A team like Toronto, who has it's core players secured is in desperate need of a star offensive d-man. They do the math and figure hey, it's a lot of first rounders, but A)where do you find a talent like this? and B) we are going to middle of the pack to upper late round starting this year, so they will be late firsts anyways.

 

 

 

I say identify your group of 4-5 core players, make sure they are happy and well payed and not available for some grimey GM to steal away. RFA does not hold the same type of leverage for a team it once did....ESPECIALLY when you are talking about elite talent that can and will be highjacked.

 

 

 

 

[jammer2]

8 hours ago, canoli said:

The only thing that worries me (slightly) is how other teams adjusted to him just by backing off him a bit and it worked.

 

Well, then you make an adjustment to the adjustment. If players back off him, he needs to use his agility to criss cross and move to the middle, creating an instant shooting or passing lane. Ghost is smart enough and skilled enough to overcome any counter thrown at him....may not come immediately, but it will come.

[jammer2]

 One more thing to add....the NHL is a lot like the NFL in one key aspect. They both are all about creating a mismatch that is either really difficult or impossible for an opponent to overcome. THAT is what we will have in Ghost at the left point and Provs at the right point on the pp. 2 d-men that will overwhelm you with speed, smarts, skill, poise and tenacity. It is a natural mismatch that other teams penalty kills will not be able to counter. That is what you risk losing if you wait any longer than Christmas....but when this kind of special thing is at risk, you just do it right away. They will be the straws that stir the drink.

[jammer2]

How many of the guys we gave bad extensions to did THIS kinda stuff, some of them ALL TIME NHL records!

 

What an incredible rookie season Ghost honoured us with. The amazing totals for the pride of Pebroke Pines, Florida are as follows....

 

1)64 Games - 17 Goals - 29 Assists - 46 points

2)82 game pace ...numbers rounded up...Goals 22 (0.265 per game) Assists 37 (0.453 per game) Points 59 (0.718 per game)

3)15 of 17 Goals either tied the game or won the game (WICKED stat!)

4)Age....turns 23 on April 20 during the 1st round of the playoffs

5)5 Game winning Goals

6)Of the 5 Game winning Goals, 4 of those came in Overtime..this ties Scott Niedermeyers all time rookie record.

7)Ghost's average of 0.26 goals per game is the 3rd best rookie average of all time for the NHL, the two in front of him...Brian Leetch and Mark Howe.

8)Logged a ton of ice time for a rookie, averaging 20.05 minutes per game

9)The last time a rookie D-man averaged 0.718 points per game was way back in the 92-93 season.

10)Artmiri Panarin, the guy most think has the edge on Ghost for rookie of the year turns 25 in October, a FULL year and half older than Ghost.

11)NCAA Frozen 4 MVP

12)Ghost averages 3.6 scoring chances per game, the exact same totals as NHL veterans Klingberg, Tyson Barrie and John Carlson.

13)Ghost tied the ALL TIME Flyers record for defensemen Power Play goals with 8...players he tied...Mark Howe and Eric Desjardins both with 8 also.

14)Shayne averaged 0.453 assists per game, over 82 games he would have been just 23 short of Gary Gally's Flyers record of 60 for a single season....Galley did it in his 7th season.

15)Ghost had 17 goals on the year....just 7 short of Mark Howe's all time Flyer record of 24 in a single season.

16)1st EVER Flyer rookie to record multiple Game Winning Overtime goals in a single season.

17)Ghost's 15 game rookie defensemen point scoring streak shattered the ALL TIME NHL record previously held by Barry Beck at 11 games.

18)Ghost was just 5 games short of the ALL TIME NHL record for rookies, held by Paul Stasney at 19 games.

19)The Flyers all time record for Game Winning Goals is 12 in a single season, held by Jeff Carter and Brian Propp, Ghost missed by 7 goals, but both Propp and Carter did it as established veterans.

20)Youngest ever winner of Flyer awards the Barry Ashbee trophy as Flyers top defensemen and also the Gene Hart Memorial Award.

21)Very respectable shooting percentage of 11.2% on the season.

22)Corsi For stat...16.

23)On a team that struggled mightily in regards to even strength goals, Ghost potted 9 of those, almost double digits for the rook.

24)15 Even Strength assist.

25)Ghost averaged 19.2 successful plays per game, almost 1 per minute since he averaged 20.05 Time on ice per game, this lead all Flyer d-men, Streit had 17.2 per game, a full 2 plays a game behind Ghost.

26)Ghost's 19.2 successful plays per game is 4 more than any other Flyer d-men averaged.

27)Ghost finished among the top 10 in the NHL in controlled carry outs from the defensive zone....this kid lugs the puck (successfully) more than 99% of the league...this will only get better.

28)Top 15 in the NHL in controlled offensive zone entries.

29)27 Total hits on the season...not bad for 165 pound kid.

30)58 total shot blocks on the season, willing to sacrafice his body to prevent goals.

31)Lowest dump in rate of any Flyer regular....very smart.

32)Flyers scored 36 power play goals while Ghost was on the ice.

33)Flyers scored 85 goals while Ghost was on the ice.

34)28 Take Aways on the season.

35)22 power play points for Ghost, in 64 games!!!

 

 Just some stunning numbers folks....we saw something very special this year, with MUCH more to come in the future.

 

 

Edited April 11 by jammer2

[Poconono]

It's part of one great year.  Paying him superstar money for that small a sampling would be insane.  Thank God you guys aren't investment counselors.

[OccamsRazor]

18 minutes ago, Poconono said:

It's part of one great year.  Paying him superstar money for that small a sampling would be insane.  Thank God you guys aren't investment counselors.

 

 

Thank God you're not the general manager.

 

You don't want to give Ghost a 4 year deal and claim Morin is a bust at 21.

 

Thank you little baby Jesus.

[canoli]

 

39 minutes ago, Poconono said:

It's part of one great year. Paying him superstar money...

 

Forgive my quibble but it was actually most of "one great year" since he played 60-some games incl 6 PO games. And is it really "superstar money" at $5 or $5.5 mil? But I understand your hesitation / reluctance to reward him (or any player) with a big money contract after such a limited sample of work. 

 

I don't see any sense in offering it now before the season's even started. But I take Jammer's warning seriously: he's a special talent who's already coveted by other teams. Who knows if Gost has any particular loyalty or bond with Philly or the Flyers?

 

[edit: correct me if I'm wrong but no team can offer-sheet Gost until FA begins after the season. He's not officially a RFA until after this year right?]

[no1sjsharksfan]

9 hours ago, jammer2 said:

 

 The problem with that analysis is that Read, MacDonald, Ummby and Harts were all horrible players, or at least had major holes in their games, hell Harts could barely stand on skates the year he got his deal....lol.

 

 D-men with a harder shot than Ghost in the league

1)P.K Subban

2)Shea Weber

 

 

D-men who can skate better than Ghost in the league

1)P.K Subban

2)Duncan Keith

3)Drew Doughty

 

D-men who stickhandle better than Ghost in the league....

1)maybe 2 or 3...

 

The point I'm making is this is a SPECIAL elite talent we are talking about, a kid who is clearly among the league leaders in numerous skills. A team like Toronto, who has it's core players secured is in desperate need of a star offensive d-man. They do the math and figure hey, it's a lot of first rounders, but A)where do you find a talent like this? and B) we are going to middle of the pack to upper late round starting this year, so they will be late firsts anyways.

 

 

 

I say identify your group of 4-5 core players, make sure they are happy and well payed and not available for some grimey GM to steal away. RFA does not hold the same type of leverage for a team it once did....ESPECIALLY when you are talking about elite talent that can and will be highjacked.

 

 

 

 

 

I have to ask, where are you getting these lists from? I don't agree with you on any of them. Karlsson, Heman, and Burns can both skate faster than Ghost, for starters. Byfglien and Chara have harder shots than Ghost (well, there is no real evidence there at all because only so many players have participated in a hardest shot competition so there isn't that much data). As for who can stickhandle better... good luck arguing that.

 

Ghost is going to be good player, and he is already the Flyers best defenseman. Curb your expectations a little, though. Tyler Myers won the Calder and go the big raise, remember, and he has been a let down compared to his rookie year. Not saying it will happen, but 64 good games doesn't get you $6.5 mil/year. I bet he gets a two-three year deal for $3.5 mil/year after this year, and then he will get $6-8 mil/year after that.

[jammer2]

1 hour ago, no1sjsharksfan said:

 

I have to ask, where are you getting these lists from? I don't agree with you on any of them. Karlsson, Heman, and Burns can both skate faster than Ghost, for starters. Byfglien and Chara have harder shots than Ghost (well, there is no real evidence there at all because only so many players have participated in a hardest shot competition so there isn't that much data). As for who can stickhandle better... good luck arguing that.

 

Ghost is going to be good player, and he is already the Flyers best defenseman. Curb your expectations a little, though. Tyler Myers won the Calder and go the big raise, remember, and he has been a let down compared to his rookie year. Not saying it will happen, but 64 good games doesn't get you $6.5 mil/year. I bet he gets a two-three year deal for $3.5 mil/year after this year, and then he will get $6-8 mil/year after that.

 

I was actually going to include Karlsson in the skating and shooting lists, but did not get a chance, fell asleep. No way can Burns skate faster than Burns, I just watched him for weeks on Team Canada, Ghost has gears that Burns can't match. More importantly, he is far more dynamic, as a rookie, Ghost scored goals and made plays that Burns could never match....and I'm a big Burns fan.

 

 The list came from 40+ years of hockey watching, was very unscientific and not really thought out, I will give you Buff, his shot is also harder than Ghosts, forgot about him.

 

The point I was trying to make with the list is that Ghost, as a rookie is in pretty exclusive company you can make strong arguments that he's top 5 in many skills. The fact he owns several NHL records kinda backs up the fact that he is pretty special.

 

 For me, it's not the records that stand out, it's the successful defensive zone exits and clean offensive zone entry that stand out, this kid can not only skate, he's super smart and uses all of these skills to IMPOSE his will on you.

 

 The bridge deal as we know it may be a thing of the past. We will see....I hope you are right for our caps space, but part of me wants to pay up front and inevitably save money in the long run.

 

 The last time I saw a kid this electric on defense, just by eye, Paul Coffey was breaking in with the Oilers....true stuff.

 

[flyercanuck]

3 hours ago, Poconono said:

It's part of one great year.  Paying him superstar money for that small a sampling would be insane.  Thank God you guys aren't investment counselors.

 

Superstar money? Who said anything about superstar money?

[flyercanuck]

2 hours ago, canoli said:

 

 

Forgive my quibble but it was actually most of "one great year" since he played 60-some games incl 6 PO games. And is it really "superstar money" at $5 or $5.5 mil? But I understand your hesitation / reluctance to reward him (or any player) with a big money contract after such a limited sample of work. 

 

I don't see any sense in offering it now before the season's even started. But I take Jammer's warning seriously: he's a special talent who's already coveted by other teams. Who knows if Gost has any particular loyalty or bond with Philly or the Flyers?

 

[edit: correct me if I'm wrong but no team can offer-sheet Gost until FA begins after the season. He's not officially a RFA until after this year right?]

 

You'd like to think most hockey players have a bond with the team that drafted them, or traded for them. There'll always be the Lindros' and Troubas. 

 

You're correct in that Ghost can't be offersheeted til he's RFA, at the end of this contract.

[jammer2]

2 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Superstar money? Who said anything about superstar money?

 

Not me, that is for sure. I'm proposing giving him years of extra security in return for giving up part of his years that will fall into his prime. You pay a bit more up front to save money in the long run. In the end, the team saves money....that is the benefit.

[jammer2]

 I'll make another bold statement, Ghost's eye-hand co-ordination is also top 5 in the NHL. If you don't believe me, I can post about 5 links that will blow your mind.

 

 Again, impossible to prove this, but 40+ years of watching this game gives me some insight. Crosby and Doughty are also in the top 5.

[jammer2]

1 hour ago, no1sjsharksfan said:

Curb your expectations a little, though. Tyler Myers won the Calder and go the big raise, remember, and he has been a let down compared to his rookie year.

 

 I don't agree with this comparison at all. Myers is a big lurching d-man with very average speed. He is limited in his defensive zone coverage because of this lack of speed. I get what you are saying, tempering expectations is a good thing, but honestly, Ghost would make Myers look silly in the open ice.

 

 Could Myers in his wildest dreams even get into position to make this play, much less get his stick on the puck?

 

https://www.nhl.com/flyers/news/results-ghosts-play-to-giroux-moves-on/c-891674

[jammer2]

3 hours ago, canoli said:

But I take Jammer's warning seriously: he's a special talent who's already coveted by other teams. Who knows if Gost has any particular loyalty or bond with Philly or the Flyers?

 

 Fortunately bro, Hexy is a super smart dude and already knows all this and will respond accordingly. I just felt the point had to be made, so I made it. The impression I get from Ghost is that he is a very grounded young man who does not project ego into the equation,this is good for us. You never know what his agent will try and do....and how me might try to twist his thinking....these guys are usually sharks out for their own bottom line. I tried to google who is agent is, but I could not find it. I suspect we will get to know this fact in the coming months.

 

 Just a total guess, but I think Ghost is very close to the Flyers org and respects the fact they drafted him and gave him the opportunity. Just a guess. I do worry about the agents influence though.

[jammer2]

2 hours ago, no1sjsharksfan said:

I bet he gets a two-three year deal for $3.5 mil/year after this year, and then he will get $6-8 mil/year after that.

 

.Your money totals are off. You are forgetting one key element to this equation. Ghost turns 24 this coming April. That makes this not your typical entry level deal into a typical bridge deal. We are talking years where Ghost will be 24-26, years where other d-men are starting to enter their prime. There should be adjustment for this. It's part of the reason why Ghost was so dominant in his first year, and why he should get 5+ mill in this next deal. Not the Flyers fault he went to NCAA and is older, but it's something they must deal with.

 

 I say this, 5 mill for 4 years....each year that is added, add a half a mill. So, if it's 6 years, make it 6 mill a year, that is adequate compensation for giving up years of his ACTUAL prime. That is fair, and it guards against him really, really breaking out in the next 2 years and demanding SUPERSTAR money. That would break the bank and really harm the cap situation.

 

 Six years at 6 mill a year take him till he is 30 AND gives him another chance at one more big deal, presumably in his prime years still. THAT is fair for both sides, It takes into account Ghosts age, special skill sets and the Flyers need to control their cap.

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

3 hours ago, jammer2 said:

 

.Your money totals are off. You are forgetting one key element to this equation. Ghost turns 24 this coming April. That makes this not your typical entry level deal into a typical bridge deal. We are talking years where Ghost will be 24-26, years where other d-men are starting to enter their prime. There should be adjustment for this. It's part of the reason why Ghost was so dominant in his first year, and why he should get 5+ mill in this next deal. Not the Flyers fault he went to NCAA and is older, but it's something they must deal with.

 

 I say this, 5 mill for 4 years....each year that is added, add a half a mill. So, if it's 6 years, make it 6 mill a year, that is adequate compensation for giving up years of his ACTUAL prime. That is fair, and it guards against him really, really breaking out in the next 2 years and demanding SUPERSTAR money. That would break the bank and really harm the cap situation.

 

 Six years at 6 mill a year take him till he is 30 AND gives him another chance at one more big deal, presumably in his prime years still. THAT is fair for both sides, It takes into account Ghosts age, special skill sets and the Flyers need to control their cap.

 

 

 

Sami Vatanen got 4 years at 4.8 mill so Ghost has to be at least worth that and a little more.

 

And Tyson Barrie 4 years at 5.2 mill and just two examples off the top of my head Ghost has to come in some where in that range for sure.

[no1sjsharksfan]

4 hours ago, jammer2 said:

 

.Your money totals are off. You are forgetting one key element to this equation. Ghost turns 24 this coming April. That makes this not your typical entry level deal into a typical bridge deal. We are talking years where Ghost will be 24-26, years where other d-men are starting to enter their prime. There should be adjustment for this. It's part of the reason why Ghost was so dominant in his first year, and why he should get 5+ mill in this next deal. Not the Flyers fault he went to NCAA and is older, but it's something they must deal with.

 

 I say this, 5 mill for 4 years....each year that is added, add a half a mill. So, if it's 6 years, make it 6 mill a year, that is adequate compensation for giving up years of his ACTUAL prime. That is fair, and it guards against him really, really breaking out in the next 2 years and demanding SUPERSTAR money. That would break the bank and really harm the cap situation.

 

 Six years at 6 mill a year take him till he is 30 AND gives him another chance at one more big deal, presumably in his prime years still. THAT is fair for both sides, It takes into account Ghosts age, special skill sets and the Flyers need to control their cap.

 

 

 

Yeah, he's 24. But he has one year of NHL experience. Doesn't matter how old the kid is. He's not getting the money you originally said after one year. I will agree with you on the $5 mil for four years. Reasonable. You'd be underpaying him after year 1 of that deal. Still think he has a lot of room to grow (which is scary).