B. Schenn traded to Blues for J. Lehtera and a Conditional 1st in 2018

[csummers]

41 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

I have several arguments against the entire post.  First among many is that it's not Lehtera that's replacing Schenn.  It's Patrick and/or Konecny.   I won't repeat the other arguments as they've been made already.

 

 I dont think they are as good a team taking away schenn and adding lehtera. They got worse. 

[The_Kaptan]

2 hours ago, aziz said:

 

i've noticed something after reading this kind of reasoning for this trade (i should say, i think what you said is exactly the thinking and why the trade was made):  for the last 5 years, every summer the flyers get a little bit worse, in the name of building for the future.  whereas before, the flyers were constantly removing future potential in the name of short term success.  it's a fine concept, but isn't it starting to get depressing, going into every season thinking, "well, they aren't going to be great, but it's about the future"?  the first wave of "for the future" is now being shipped out "for the future".  remember that?  schenn came in trade for the previous "for the future", which was being shipped out because they'd only managed to be pretty good, instead of great.  we're three generations of "for the future" into this, now.

 

i'm starting to think this can be a cycle that never really has to stop, an almost compulsive need for hope rather than results.  schenn never lived up to his pre-draft potential, but was still a fairly high end forward that had a role.  the flyers will definitely be worse off for his absence, next season.  and the one after that, probably.  until maybe one day, the draft-pick roll of the dice pays off.  except, doing this every year on end, those drafted players eventually become the trade fodder themselves, for more dice rolls.  cycle of the flyers' rosters' life, at this point.

 

i dunno.  

 

I hear what you're saying, but wasn't the whole point of getting rid of Homgren and hiring Hextall switching from a short term to a long term vision for the future?

 

Maybe the real problem is really just that it takes longer than anybody in Philadelphia would like to actually rebuild a team from the ground up, which is essentially what Hextall is doing, whether anybody realized it or not. 

[jammer2]

1 minute ago, The_Kaptan said:

Maybe the real problem is really just that it takes longer than anybody in Philadelphia would like to actually rebuild a team from the ground up, which is essentially what Hextall is doing, whether anybody realized it or not. 

 

  Honestly, when you look at the precise methodology Hexy has applied, I don't see how you reach any other conclusion other than he's rebuilding from the ground up. He entered a fray where almost half the players had NTC and NMC's....we now have 2 on the roster, it used to be double digits....ie more flexibility.

 

He's traded incredible albatross contracts that I thought no one would take. He targeted defense, choosing to build from scratch from the back end out....something no other Flyer GM has ever grasped....how very important the transition game is in the NHL. He stockpiled the best group of goalies our org has ever seen and now it's the forwards turn. As he drafts in the coming years, he's going to have some sick depth. It's a patient holding pattern he's employing....one that takes 5+ years....unless you move from pick #13 to #2.....that *might* have sped up the process, we shall see.

[jammer2]

16 minutes ago, csummers said:

 

 I dont think they are as good a team taking away schenn and adding lehtera. They got worse. 

 

 Except for the fact Lehetra is not replacing Schenn, Patrick or Konecny are, as rux *just* pointed out.  He was just a throw in, a cap hit we had to take to make the team faster and build draft picks for 2018. ALWAYS have an eye on the future.  My money says Hexy will make VERY good use of those 2 first rounders next year. Lehetra is just a means to an end, I don't think you are seeing whole picture clearly. Frost and that first rounder are a great return for Mr.Average.

[aziz]

1 hour ago, ruxpin said:

He does nothing for me on 5v5. He's in the way.  I mean, he was even on the 4th line for a bit.  He hampers every line he's on.   And again, before this trade yesterday, someone put together lines based on Patrick and someone else had to respond with, "What about Schenn?"   I forget who the poster was, but they actually completely forgot about Schenn.  Why?  Because he really doesn't fit.  Yeah, the power play.  But maybe someone else (Konecny, Patrick, who knows) moves up to that slot and you don't really miss it at all?   But what I won't miss is his screwing up every single line he's on.  I've said multiple times that I don't hate Schenn, but I know that's getting harder and harder to believe with every post!   I honestly don't.  I just think he doesn't fit on this team.   

 

as you know, i haven't really been paying attention recently, but i don't think whoever moves into that slot replaces the production.  not right away, anyway.  i get schenn not doing anything for you, i get thinking there is a better solution, but i think the flyers are a net-loss on talent and production from this trade going into next season.  could be the difference is made up in the elevation of other players, with the schenn-screws-up-lines concept, i guess.  we're back to "hope" again, though.  at some point you have to build a team, not stock drawers.  

 

schenn could be part of a successful roster.  not linchpin, but a part.  you need parts.  even if they aren't perfect.  st louis suddenly has a 26 yearold 55pt forward on a not-too-bad contract.  the flyers suddenly don't.  the flyers are now down one part, hoping they can find something to fill the hole down the road.  they'll feel that for a bit.  even if it pays off in a year, or two, or whatever, they will feel that next season.  they are down a part.  they keep getting rid of parts.

 

good to be backing reading, rux.  missed the drama

[jammer2]

10 minutes ago, aziz said:

could be the difference is made up in the elevation of other players, with the schenn-screws-up-lines concept, i guess.  we're back to "hope" again, though.  at some point you have to build a team, not stock drawers.  

 

 

 He *really* did mess up the lines he was on. Always seemed like a square peg in a round hole. His lack of 5-5 production directly relates to how he messed up the forward lines. It was rare to have the line he was on go on a nice role....and in the top 6, that should not be happening. He made the pp hot at times, when nobody was on him. Schenn is the type of player that regresses in the playoffs...no creativity and unless the other team takes stupid penalties, he would not make them pay. 

 

 He was a valuable commodity, but the return was right....especially if you subscribe to the "when the window opens" theory. He helped make exactly half our top 6 into a slow plodding mess, something another team will capitalize on when it matters most. Classic case of addition by subtraction. 

[csummers]

14 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

 

 Except for the fact Lehetra is not replacing Schenn, Patrick or Konecny are, as rux *just* pointed out.  He was just a throw in, a cap hit we had to take to make the team faster and build draft picks for 2018. ALWAYS have an eye on the future.  My money says Hexy will make VERY good use of those 2 first rounders next year. Lehetra is just a means to an end, I don't think you are seeing whole picture clearly. Frost and that first rounder are a great return for Mr.Average.

 

 A throw in that makes almost as much as schenn and is not nearly as good, and will have to be in the lineup for two more years whether anyone likes it or not. Maybe we need time travel because they have just shown their hand that they do not intend to compete for at least two more seasons and that is if draft choices all work out perfect.

 Probably be having the same discussion in 3 or 4 years when they trade away the next batch of "future" for more draft choices.

[aziz]

1 hour ago, brelic said:

Just to piggyback on @ruxpin's post, i would add that the major difference is that when we become a competitive team, Hextall is building us in such a way that there is a constant supply of developing talent in the pipeline to keep us competitive.

 

yes, true, but at some point "when we become a competitive team" needs to be a short term goal.  if the moves you make are predominantly and perpetually targeting 3-5 years down the road, you will be predominantly and perpetually 3-5 years from being competitive. 

 

giroux is going to be 30 next season, right?  his entire "era" has been spent building for 3-5 years in the future.  always 3-5 years into the future.

[jammer2]

5 minutes ago, csummers said:

 Probably be having the same discussion in 3 or 4 years when they trade away the next batch of "future" for more draft choices.

 

 

 

Except Hexy has shown no inclination of trading valuable assets away. He deserves the chance to formulate his own team. He inherited Schenn, did not pick him, BIG difference.

 

Let's put it this way.....The Flyers finished a DISMAL bottom 5 in 5-5 goals. In order to get better they MUST get more 5 on 5 goals. You have two members of the top 6 averaging less than 1.5 goals per month at even strength. They are G, who is going nowhere with that contract and Schenn. Just how do you address this 5X5 problem?  You trade Schenn and replace him with Konency, Lindblom or Patrick in the top 6. NO WAY any of those guys will be worse than B.Schenn even strength, even a youngsters. It's all about identifying the problem and actually fixing it. 

 

 

[jammer2]

1 minute ago, aziz said:

giroux is going to be 30 next season, right?  his entire "era" has been spent building for 3-5 years in the future.  always 3-5 years into the future.

 

 Except this is Hexy's kick at the 5-3 building. I think he's significantly more talented at targeting young talent than Homer or Clarke. Hexy has to be given the patience to do things his way. If he fails, it is the last great hope for a cup for some of the original Flyer fans, so a LOT at stake.  Win before we die dammit!!!  LOL

[csummers]

2 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

 

 

 

Except Hexy has shown no inclination of trading valuable assets away. He deserves the chance to formulate his own team. He inherited Schenn, did not pick him, BIG difference.

 

Let's put it this way.....The Flyers finished a DISMAL bottom 5 in 5-5 goals. In order to get better they MUST get more 5 on 5 goals. You have two members of the top 6 averaging less than 1.5 goals per month at even strength. They are G, who is going nowhere with that contract and Schenn. Just how do you address this 5X5 problem?  You trade Schenn and replace him with Konency, Lindblom or Patrick in the top 6. NO WAY any of those guys will be worse than B.Schenn even strength, even a youngsters. It's all about identifying the problem and actually fixing it. 

 

 

 

 St Louis got better, flyers got worse. At some point you should try to win.

[jammer2]

2 minutes ago, csummers said:

 

 St Louis got better, flyers got worse. At some point you should try to win.

 

 Yeah, a team that has NEVER won the cup traded away 2 first rounders to get a guy who SUCKS 5X5....trades like that is exactly why they will never win.

 

 Schenn....probably 27 or so goals at 26 yrs of age.

Flyers open up a top 6 spot for Nolan Patrick, with Simmer he just might put up 20 as a 20 year old. Plus Frost's potential and next years 1st. Any other way of looking at this makes no sense.

[jammer2]

14 minutes ago, csummers said:

 

 St Louis got better, flyers got worse. At some point you should try to win.

 

 Flyers got better 5x5, which was one of the MAIN reasons we were losing. We fixed that. Fyers got better, much better.

[FD19372]

15 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

 

 

 

Except Hexy has shown no inclination of trading valuable assets away. He deserves the chance to formulate his own team. He inherited Schenn, did not pick him, BIG difference.

 

Let's put it this way.....The Flyers finished a DISMAL bottom 5 in 5-5 goals. In order to get better they MUST get more 5 on 5 goals. You have two members of the top 6 averaging less than 1.5 goals per month at even strength. They are G, who is going nowhere with that contract and Schenn. Just how do you address this 5X5 problem?  You trade Schenn and replace him with Konency, Lindblom or Patrick in the top 6. NO WAY any of those guys will be worse than B.Schenn even strength, even a youngsters. It's all about identifying the problem and actually fixing it. 

 

 

So....how exactly does subtracting Schenn and adding Lehtera better this at all? You HOPE these guys can do that, but like him or not, he did score 25 goals on a team that ranked 20th in the league in goals scored. The answer is it does not.

[ruxpin]

12 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

 

 Yeah, a team that has NEVER won the cup traded away 2 first rounders to get a guy who SUCKS 5X5....trades like that is exactly why they will never win.

 

 Schenn....probably 27 or so goals at 26 yrs of age.

Flyers open up a top 6 spot for Nolan Patrick, with Simmer he just might put up 20 as a 20 year old. Plus Frost's potential and next years 1st. Any other way of looking at this makes no sense.

Exactly this.  I really highly doubt Schenn has any great effect on St Louis. I'll agree with better but only because of how "meh" I view Lehtera. Lehtera will probably end up being an overpaid 4th line player or traded (likely). 

 

And I do think Schenn's production is replaced THIS year. I think several players will be better as a result of his absence. 

 

This is more of a "now" trade than some people seem to realize. 

[jammer2]

3 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

So....how exactly does subtracting Schenn and adding Lehtera better this at all? You HOPE these guys can do that, but like him or not, he did score 25 goals on a team that ranked 20th in the league in goals scored. The answer is it does not.

 

 This chart conveniently proves my point.

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-even-strength-goal-ratio/2016/

 

The regular strength goal ratio adds even strength goals against even strength goals given up. Notice the Flyers in the bottom third of the league?  That is UNACCEPTABLE. Apparently, Hexy thought so also. There are two ways to improve that even strength goal ratio, tighten up the back end and goalies (admittedly a work in progress) but the quicker solution is to take guys out of the top 6 that are not scoring 5 on 5....that is mainly Schenn and G....G is not going anywhere, so the obvious move is to let go of Schenn for a respectable return...done and done. 

[ruxpin]

8 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

So....how exactly does subtracting Schenn and adding Lehtera better this at all? You HOPE these guys can do that, but like him or not, he did score 25 goals on a team that ranked 20th in the league in goals scored. The answer is it does not.

They have to replace 8 goals on even strength. It's not the feat you think. An entire line will be better without him. 

The power play will be fine. 17 goals or not, the PP was bad enough it got the coach fired. 

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, csummers said:

 

 I dont think they are as good a team taking away schenn and adding lehtera. They got worse. 

We'll have to agree to (diametrically) disagree.  I won't miss Schenn at all. I doubt anyone actually will. 

[aziz]

22 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

If he fails

 

ok, but....what will make anyone declare that, so long as the things being done are stated as being for the future?  it seems like it could be the eternal pass, because the sentiment and logic are sound, so long people stay "patient".

 

you guys are way more up on things than i am at this point.  i just noticed that the rhetoric around the current state and recent events sounded really familiar.  like, i've heard it annually since forsberg was traded for 2 prospects with 1st round pedigrees and 2 high picks.

 

we'll see.  it just struck me.

[jammer2]

Just now, aziz said:

 

ok, but....what will make anyone declare that, so long as the things being done are stated as being for the future?  it seems like it could be the eternal pass, because the sentiment and logic are sound, so long people stay "patient".

 

you guys are way more up on things than i am at this point.  i just noticed that the rhetoric around the current state and recent events sounded really familiar.  like, i've heard it annually since forsberg was traded for 2 prospects with 1st round pedigrees and 2 high picks.

 

we'll see.  it just struck me.

 

 Regardless so my disagreeing right now, it's great to have you back posting. We all missed your valuable input. 

[ruxpin]

3 minutes ago, aziz said:

 

ok, but....what will make anyone declare that, so long as the things being done are stated as being for the future?  it seems like it could be the eternal pass, because the sentiment and logic are sound, so long people stay "patient".

 

you guys are way more up on things than i am at this point.  i just noticed that the rhetoric around the current state and recent events sounded really familiar.  like, i've heard it annually since forsberg was traded for 2 prospects with 1st round pedigrees and 2 high picks.

 

we'll see.  it just struck me.

It bears repeating:  that's really not a horrible point. It's one that @vis is making, too. 

 

I think, though, if you don't start seeing significant improvement this year or, at the very least, next year, it's time to start lighting the torches. 

[aziz]

17 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

This is more of a "now" trade than some people seem to realize.

 

maybe it is, using advanced math involving other players being better because schenn is gone.  not making a funny there, that idea may be true.  

 

as someone that is missing the team's current nuance, though, the basic arithmetic of it doesn't work that way.  schenn > lehtera, and the picks won't be playing.  lehtera costs enough that he'll be on the roster next season, so whoever moves into schenn's hole, lehtera will move into theirs.  the roster will be minus schenn and plus lehtera, with some internal shuffling.  which to me is an inarguable step backwards.

 

edit:  unless you want to argue it.  ha.  maybe schenn's dampening of the players around him really will result in an extra 40 points from them.

[aziz]

7 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

 

 Regardless so my disagreeing right now, it's great to have you back posting. We all missed your valuable input. 

 

thanks, man.  was hoping for a more exciting draft, to get me back into things, but this trade'll do.  lol

[jammer2]

2 minutes ago, aziz said:

 

thanks, man.  was hoping for a more exciting draft, to get me back into things, but this trade'll do.  lol

 

 I thought this draft was ultra exciting. Best draft I can ever remember from a Flyers GM. We have one, maybe two cornerstones for the franchise moving forward, I call that a good day at the office.

[ruxpin]

1 minute ago, aziz said:

 

maybe it is, using advanced math involving other players being better because schenn is gone.  not making a funny there, that idea may be true.  

 

as someone that is missing the team's current nuance, though, the basic arithmetic of it doesn't work that way.  schenn > lehtera, and the picks won't be playing.  lehtera costs enough that he'll be on the roster next season, so whoever moves into schenn's hole, lehtera will move into theirs.  the roster will be minus schenn and plus lehtera, with some internal shuffling.  which to me is an inarguable step backwards.

Yeah. Especially on the basic arithmetic (interesting way of putting it, but effective). 

 

We're arguably back to hope again, but I don't know that it will be that difficult to move Lehtera. Even if for a mid or late round pick. I doubt St. Louis would have entertained that because he was a draft pick, yadda yadda. For Hextall, he was a throw in. And he's not Umberger. The guy can play some d and is only 29 or something. So long as we're willing to not get a lot back, he's movable at the deadline (only a year left at that point). 

 

Be nice. Hope is what I got.