SaucyJack

The Athletic says: DET 46% WSH 42% PIT 10% PHI 3% Let the Game 82 round begin.

One last time…NYI clinched, so only one spot left. Any Caps win, even via shootout, gets them in, so moneypuck thinks Philly has a 58.3% chance of winning that final game. But also, that it very likely means the Flyers play spoiler for either Detroit or Pittsburgh rather than to advance themselves into the playoffs. So for three regulation wins to Philly, Montreal, and the Islanders, is only a 6.2% chance? That’s what moneypuck says here. Same as two days ago, the slowpokes at The Athletic have still not updated their odds as of last night’s games. Down to the wire…

I stand corrected. You are right, only each club winning one game (each) would apply for that tiebreaker. Perhaps it will be more amazing for the Caps to advance than for Philly. Their -38 is far worse than Detroit, Pittsburgh, or Buffalo, and worse than Ottawa’s or New Jersey’s. Lots of bad blowout losses to go with close wins. But a WSH win tonight gets them in. Still, a Philly regulation win tonight is more likely to spoil the Capitals’ efforts and earn a spot for the Wings or Pens, but we’ll all know soon.

Flyers defeat Washington in regulation (Tues) Canadiens defeat Detroit in regulation (Tues) Islanders defeat Pittsburgh in regulation (Wed) …then Flyers are IN [Cue Beatles “Help!”] NOTE: In this scenario, Flyers and Capitals would be equal in the first 3 tiebreakers! (Both 31 Regulation wins, both 35 wins excluding shootouts, both 39 total wins.). 4th tiebreaker would be Flyers earning 4 pts (to the Caps 3 pts) in the three games played between the two this season. Amazing that Philly still has this shot to advance.

The Athletic is updated. It claims as of 8:45 this morning, and maybe they ran their algorithm then, but it was not posted until after mid-afternoon. Webmaster screwup, seems likely. They’re considerably different than moneypuck.com, in that they say: DET 47% WSH 31% PIT 16% PHI 11% Velly intellesting…

The Athletic (which I recently got free for a trial period) also calculates NHL playoff odds, but apparently they take weekends off. They still show Pittsburgh with a big edge, but only because, well into Sunday afternoon now, they’ve still yet to update things per Saturday’s crucial results. Good grief, Athletic, either update things like this every bleedin’ day, or don’t do it at all. Especially near end of the season. Such a joke…

I might as well keep this up as we near the end. A disastrous night for Pittsburgh. Five games of relevance, and counting the NYI one-point shootout loss as bad for the Pens, all five went against them. Caps, Flyers, Wings all win, Pens lose. That’s a 1 in 32 bad bounce for them, explaining how in one single game cycle they went from over 50% to about 20%. Moneypuck had it thusly with two to play for everyone but Philly (only one left): NYI 90 WSH 87 DET 87 PHI 87 PIT 86 Note how different these moneypuck odds are than the new odds shown by ABC after the Bruins vs Pens game ended. They showed Detroit at about 50% and Washington about 20%. I guess moneypuck thinks the Canadiens will battle the Red Wings as tough as the Bruins and Flyers will battle the Capitals. Nevertheless, I do think Detroit has the better shot, making their OT winner in Toronto tonight as huge as they celebrated it. (Well it’s been 7 years for them since making the playoffs I hear.) NYI could have clinched but for Caps and Wings winning. Wouldn’t it be rich if they lost their last two while these other guys both won their last two.

After tonight’s action, a disaster for Washington, none of that is likely. Isles and Pens now the likely survivors. The latest moneypuck.com assessment: Tonight, the Caps earn zero points, everyone else gets two except Detroit (one). If Washington & Ovie fail to qualify by a whisker, they’ll look back at the combined 10-4 shellacking in two games in Buffalo in April, snaring zero points against the spoiling Sabres, who will bid them farewell saying, “Ya Burnt!”

Two days later, and some separation has occurred. Islanders nearly a lock, Flyers looking for golf gear. Huge victory for the Caps over Wings to end a 6 game skid and greatly improve their chances. The moneypuck.com odds after last night’s action:

How the worm has turned in just five days, in this Eastern Conference battle between 5 clubs for 2 playoff slots. Philly (0-5-2 since last win) and Washington (0-4-2 since last win) have been eclipsed from the top two slots to now be on the bottom! Conversely, the NY Islanders (5-1-0 in last six) and Pittsburgh (6-0-1 since last loss) have vaulted from the bottom to 1st and 3rd to pass by our two Mid-Atlantic Death Spiralers! Meanwhile, Detroit staying tough (2-2-2 in last six) - I would not count them out as they’ve risen to 2nd. But what a tight pack. Everyone has 5 games to play, except Philly with 4: NYI 85 DET 84 PIT 83 WSH 83 PHI 83 The Prince of Wales Pre-Playoffs Race has reached high-gear!

Seth Meyers left a message after your loss to Detroit this afternoon: ”Ya Burnt!”

With recent lackluster results from Philly and Washington, grittiness by Detroit against some good clubs, and some resurgence by others, the pre-playoffs race amongst 5 teams for 2 slots is getting a bit more interesting. Moneypuck as of this morning:

After losing by 4, at home, to Chicago…then yes you make a fair point there!

You bet. The schedule-makers got this matchup right! I was lovin’ those two late Florida goals this afternoon until Detroit tied things on the power play. At least the Wings lost the shootout and only got 1 point. Keep the Wings out, and both Caps and Flyers advance. That last game could still be vital for seeding.

Long time no see… Oct 12th, 2022: last visit by Boston Bruins to Washington Capitals until tonight, March 30th, 2024. 1 leap year, 5 months, and 18 days between visits. (Weird scheduling for the Capitals this season: both Boston visits and both road games to Buffalo are in the last 18 days of the campaign.)

So at the just-televised press conference, Caps/Wizards owner Ted Leonsis said he was impressed and convinced to make a new deal with the District of Columbia per: a) other recent DC funding to revitalize the downtown area b) recent crime bill legislation to reduce it downtown Ted wanted $600 mil from the city to upgrade Capital One Arena, but the deal is for $515 mil over 3 years. He’d sign a 25-year lease. The Virginia Senate did not approve the move to Alexandria nor did they put into place any plan for public funding. The DC City Council still needs to approve this new deal early next week, but since the terms are nearly identical to plans they already unanimously approved months back in discussions with the mayor, this looks like a done deal.

Breaking news on local DC television: the proposed move of the Capitals and Wizards away from Capital One Arena, to Potomac Yards at Alexandria VA… …is now OFF. Fiiight, for oooold, Dee Ceeeee!

Thanks to Patrick Kane’s bullet from the mid-slot with 5 minutes to go, the Caps are denied the coveted 2-point gain over the Wings. It’s a 1-point gain though, thanks to Dylan Strome in OT. So, Washington sort of “held serve”. Meanwhile, it’s a 1-point gain over the Flyers, too, per their OT loss at NYR. Just last night’s action, according to moneypuck , means that playoff odds changed thusly: Philly: -1.6% (87.2 to 85.6) Wash: +7.6% (57.9 to 65.5) Det: -7.7% (37.3 to 29.6) Seems a bit too much change in odds for the Caps and Wings but I’m not the professional mathematician here. Now… can the Capitals do better than they have against the Maple Leafs this year, tomorrow night, as Ovie & crew make their lone appearance in Toronto?

Not terribly brutal. Others have games in hand on Buffalo, but you should win your next 2 home games (OTT, NJ). In April, you get rivals Washington (twice!) and Philly at home. Your last week is tough, all good teams on the road, but an opportunity to play rival Detroit. So yeah, tough, but not impossible.

That was 26 days ago. Now look what moneypuck.com says after yesterday’s (Sunday 24th March) results, after the nice pre-game ceremony the Capitals gave TJ Oshie before defeating road-weary Winnipeg: Greater than a 50/50 shot. Holy sh!te! And no wonder, with games in hand they are ahead of Detroit and right on Philly’s heels: I would say, just per a rough Eye Test, that Washington is improved over two months ago in their ability to skate, and break out of zone. They have not been seriously outplayed since the road losses to Winnipeg and Edmonton a week and a half ago, and before that the game in Detroit 3 and 1/2 weeks ago. (The recent Toronto loss was one where I thought went against the skate of play.) The Capitals *must* “condolidate their break”, as would be said in tennis circles, by defeating Detroit in the Wings’ lone visit to Capital One Arena tomorrow (Tuesday) night!

and with a LOT of good fortune and team luck, maybe he could have won one with the Capitals two years later in 1998. The video here shows his only ‘98 playoff goal. But it was in the Final, at heavily favored Detroit, and in the game Washington should have won to change the complexion of things. It put the Caps up 2-1 in Game 2. Alas, their 3rd period 4-2 lead did not turn into a 3 goal lead after hired Oiler hand Esa Tikkanen missed a nearly empty cage on an odd play. Two Red Wings goals in a minute with five to go, then an OT winner, put Detroit on a course to sweep when they returned to Washington. (Wild Bill attending one game with all the secret service protection did not help.)

This is a joke…roit? Tell me they’re joking.

TJ Oshie’s 1000th game was worth the wait as Washington improbably defeat the mighty Canucks in Vancouver. I suppose tonight makes up for the dreadful home loss to Arizona two weeks ago. We can’t kill these guys. Outscored 12-6 on this road trip, the Capitals nevertheless are 2-2 overall, and with a realistic shot at 3-2 with a win Monday night in Calgary. One point behind Detroit for the final spot, with a game in hand. But, the next 6 games after Calgary are against tough foes all. (Except maybe the aforementioned Red Wings, who after manhandling Washington recently are in their own seeming death spiral now.)

Nice streak there, but I see that teams have scored 4 or more goals on the Jets seven times as of late January, after you posted this. Huge game for Washington tonight in Winnipeg, the first of two in March. Start of a 5-game Western Swing, start of 11 games where 9 are elite clubs. It’s now do-or-die for the Caps, hope they can plant 4 or more tonight and keep pace with Philly & Detroit & Tampa Bay. P.S. Rematch in 2 weeks, where this time it is a Winnipeg 5-game Eastern Swing but at its end. Call it late season bookend scheduling.

The 2018 second round playoff victory video I posted somewhere a few weeks ago, with Kuzy scoring a game 6 OT winner in Pittsburgh, finally giving the Caps a playoff series victory over their arch-nemesis, being imho the most cathartic single moment in Capitals team history… …well, Evgeny Kuznetsov will NEVER just be another Caps player waived or traded. He is in the Capitals Scrapbook for all time, even though he’s had his downs to go with the ups. Good luck, Evgeny…