Can/Will Ovie pass Gretzky in All Time Goals?

[pilldoc]

9 minutes ago, Brewin Flames said:

He will at least get to 40...me thinks.

 

Yeah...I agree.   Honestly there is no reason to think otherwise.  He will go on a terror for a game or and get a few hatties here and there.  40G puts him at 420 and only 75 behind.  Certainly a realistic shot at Gretzky ......

[NHL HHOF]

Ovechkin feeling lucky about chance to pass Howe for goals with one team

Capitals left wing needs three for latest milestone, 18 from second in NHL history

https://www.nhl.com/news/washington-alex-ovechkin-close-to-gordie-howes-goals-record-for-one-team/c-336994676

 

Gordie Howe - 786 goals with the Detroit Red Wings

[NHL HHOF]

Ovechkin ties Howe with one team - 786 goals.

[NHL HHOF]

Ovechkin ties Gordie Howe goals record after meeting Mr. Hockey's son

Capitals forward urged to 'keep going,' then scores No. 786 at Red Wings to equal mark with one team

https://www.nhl.com/news/alex-ovechkin-ties-gordie-howe-for-most-goals-with-one-nhl-team/c-337190596

 

 

 

[NHL HHOF]

Ovechkin of Capitals sets NHL record for most goals with one team

Scores 787th against Coyotes to break mark held by Howe
https://www.nhl.com/news/washington-capitals-alex-ovechkin-sets-nhl-record-for-most-goals-with-one-team/c-337258770

[NHL HHOF]

Ovechkin breaks a Gretzky record! Ovechkin now has 403 goals on the road!

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[Holymakinaw]

Ovie is amazing, but he'll be iffy as to passing Gretzky.  Time & age-related injuries will likely catch up with him.  Here's hoping he can stay healthy and do it.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Holymakinaw

[pilldoc]

41 minutes ago, Holymakinaw said:

Time & age-related injuries will likely catch up with him.

 

If he had a history of injuries, yeah, I would be concerned.  As of now the dude is a freak of nature.  

 

As of now his current pace would put him at 44 Goals for the year for a career total of 824.  That would only be 70 goals shy of Gretzky's record.  Ovie would only need to ave. 35 goals  over the next 2 years to tie Gretzky. For the record over the past decade Ovie has averaged 45 G/ season.  (remove the COVID year.)  In addition because of the Covid shorten season(s) and the NHL players strike shortenend season, his body has not taken the toll  he would have otherwise taken.  Figure between the strike shortened season and the Covid seasons he missed ~100 games.

 

Unless something catastrophic occurs, I believe sometime during the the 24-25 season we all will be on the Ovie breaking record watch.

[Holymakinaw]

19 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

 

If he had a history of injuries, yeah, I would be concerned.  As of now the dude is a freak of nature.  

 

As of now his current pace would put him at 44 Goals for the year for a career total of 824.  That would only be 70 goals shy of Gretzky's record.  Ovie would only need to ave. 35 goals  over the next 2 years to tie Gretzky. For the record over the past decade Ovie has averaged 45 G/ season.  (remove the COVID year.)  In addition because of the Covid shorten season(s) and the NHL players strike shortenend season, his body has not taken the toll  he would have otherwise taken.  Figure between the strike shortened season and the Covid seasons he missed ~100 games.

 

Unless something catastrophic occurs, I believe sometime during the the 24-25 season we all will be on the Ovie breaking record watch.

 

Maybe.  But personally, I don't think he'll do it.  He'll be 38 and 39 years old then and they pretty much all drop off by that age.  He's not super human. 

 

Brett Hull DID have one 37 goal season at 39 but it sandwiched between 30G & a 25G seasons.  The greatest goal-scorer of them all, Wayner Gretzky, stopped having elite goal scoring seasons suddenly at age 33.  Same with Jagr, who had his last 30+ goal season at age 33.   Esposito dropped off at age 37.

 

No doubt Ovie is a rare breed.  But he'll "drop off" as well, and very soon.  Many won't accept that because they just want to see him do it, but it'll come, just like with everyone else.

[pilldoc]

1 hour ago, Holymakinaw said:

 

Maybe.  But personally, I don't think he'll do it.  He'll be 38 and 39 years old then and they pretty much all drop off by that age.  He's not super human. 

 

Brett Hull DID have one 37 goal season at 39 but it sandwiched between 30G & a 25G seasons.  The greatest goal-scorer of them all, Wayner Gretzky, stopped having elite goal scoring seasons suddenly at age 33.  Same with Jagr, who had his last 30+ goal season at age 33.   Esposito dropped off at age 37.

 

No doubt Ovie is a rare breed.  But he'll "drop off" as well, and very soon.  Many won't accept that because they just want to see him do it, but it'll come, just like with everyone else.

 

Perhaps "maybe" what you state "might" come true.  It is true most prolific goal scorers see their production drop.  However, Ovie is that rare exception.  His current scoring pace both last year and this year is still very much on par with his overall career. Throughout sports there have been rare exceptions.  Nolan Ryan striking out over 300 batters at age 42!  That would be unheard of today.  I would not be so dismissive about his age and scoring pace.  

 

Many "assume" just because he is getting older that his scoring pace "must" drop off.  There is no evidence suggesting that this is happening with Ovie.  It is foolish to assume it will happen next year or the year after.  

 

It is interesting to note that a year and a half ago in this very thread 2 members insisted that Ovie would be lucky to score 30-35 goals last year because of his age.  One member even insisted that Ovie just had to slow down and was very adamant and stubborn that he could be wrong.  Ovie went on to score 45 goals last year.  

 

Some "words of wisdom" I have learned over the years d that I like to share with others is just to enjoy the great players we see today.  

I don't have a horse in the race if Ovie does or does not pass Gretzky.  I have seen some who are very much against a Russian passing Gretzky including a member who used to post here.

 

For a sport which, in most cases ranks 4th in the US, behind football, baseball, and basketball it would be nice to this type of publicity to promote hockey and the race to break Gretzky's record just might do that.

[Holymakinaw]

39 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

 

Perhaps "maybe" what you state "might" come true.  It is true most prolific goal scorers see their production drop.  However, Ovie is that rare exception.  His current scoring pace both last year and this year is still very much on par with his overall career. Throughout sports there have been rare exceptions.  Nolan Ryan striking out over 300 batters at age 42!  That would be unheard of today.  I would not be so dismissive about his age and scoring pace.  

 

Many "assume" just because he is getting older that his scoring pace "must" drop off.  There is no evidence suggesting that this is happening with Ovie.  It is foolish to assume it will happen next year or the year after.  

 

It is interesting to note that a year and a half ago in this very thread 2 members insisted that Ovie would be lucky to score 30-35 goals last year because of his age.  One member even insisted that Ovie just had to slow down and was very adamant and stubborn that he could be wrong.  Ovie went on to score 45 goals last year.  

 

Some "words of wisdom" I have learned over the years d that I like to share with others is just to enjoy the great players we see today.  

I don't have a horse in the race if Ovie does or does not pass Gretzky.  I have seen some who are very much against a Russian passing Gretzky including a member who used to post here.

 

For a sport which, in most cases ranks 4th in the US, behind football, baseball, and basketball it would be nice to this type of publicity to promote hockey and the race to break Gretzky's record just might do that.

 

Nah.

[Alexandron]

3 hours ago, pilldoc said:

 

Perhaps "maybe" what you state "might" come true.  It is true most prolific goal scorers see their production drop.  However, Ovie is that rare exception.  His current scoring pace both last year and this year is still very much on par with his overall career. Throughout sports there have been rare exceptions.  Nolan Ryan striking out over 300 batters at age 42!  That would be unheard of today.  I would not be so dismissive about his age and scoring pace.  

 

Many "assume" just because he is getting older that his scoring pace "must" drop off.  There is no evidence suggesting that this is happening with Ovie.  It is foolish to assume it will happen next year or the year after.  

 

It is interesting to note that a year and a half ago in this very thread 2 members insisted that Ovie would be lucky to score 30-35 goals last year because of his age.  One member even insisted that Ovie just had to slow down and was very adamant and stubborn that he could be wrong.  Ovie went on to score 45 goals last year.  

 

Some "words of wisdom" I have learned over the years d that I like to share with others is just to enjoy the great players we see today.  

I don't have a horse in the race if Ovie does or does not pass Gretzky.  I have seen some who are very much against a Russian passing Gretzky including a member who used to post here.

 

For a sport which, in most cases ranks 4th in the US, behind football, baseball, and basketball it would be nice to this type of publicity to promote hockey and the race to break Gretzky's record just might do that.

Very nice post. Slight correction. Actually Ovi scored 50 goals last season in 77 played games and tied a record with Wayne Gretzky to score 50 and more goals in 9 seasons. I am sure in his plans to extend this record at least to 10 seasons. And also I am sure his other goal is to reach 1000 goals or close to this number in his career that no one will be able to reach this mark in a nearest future. Hope, by the help of his team he can do it, of course, if he will stay healthy. That would be the best record to promote the most real professional hockey. I like to listen often for many years our local Minnesota radio hockey commentators. Before(few years ago) they surely said that Ovi will not be able to break Gretzky's record. Now they think it is a very possible event.

[Brewin Flames]

6 hours ago, Holymakinaw said:

 

Maybe.  But personally, I don't think he'll do it.  He'll be 38 and 39 years old then and they pretty much all drop off by that age.  He's not super human. 

 

Brett Hull DID have one 37 goal season at 39 but it sandwiched between 30G & a 25G seasons.  The greatest goal-scorer of them all, Wayner Gretzky, stopped having elite goal scoring seasons suddenly at age 33.  Same with Jagr, who had his last 30+ goal season at age 33.   Esposito dropped off at age 37.

 

No doubt Ovie is a rare breed.  But he'll "drop off" as well, and very soon.  Many won't accept that because they just want to see him do it, but it'll come, just like with everyone else.

 

 

Ya , well, they said the same thing about Tom Brady too....

 

Barring injury , 2-4 yrs max.

[pilldoc]

2 hours ago, Alexandron said:

Slight correction. Actually Ovi scored 50 goals last season in 77 played games

Oops… my bad… must of looked at wrong season…. Thanks!

Edited December 8, 2022 by pilldoc

[NHL HHOF]

Ovechkin chasing history, Howe, Gretzky

Capitals forward within five goals of 800 after two against Flyers

https://www.nhl.com/news/alex-ovechkin-chasing-history-gordie-howe-wayne-gretzky/c-338540104

[SaucyJack]

17 hours ago, NHL HHOF said:

Ovechkin chasing history

How’s this for history?  Ovie is a mere +72 over 17 seasons, the majority of which have been with good Capitals squads.

 

He is -22 over the past 4 seasons (including this one where he is -11.)

 

The rap on Ovie is his lack of 2-way play which his mediocre (definitely subpar per his team quality over those years) plus/minus stats show.   He is perhaps the “Pistol Pete” Maravich of hockey.  (I suspect many will have to Google the basketball run-and-gun practitioner from yesteryear.)

 

I am not sure I put Ovechkin top ten all-time even if he breaks Gretzky’s mark.  The numerous team playoff chokes due to lack of 2-way discipline are searing painful memories to longtime Caps fans.  That memory will be more permanent than anything else he possibly does.

 

Yes he won one Cup in the one playoff season that the team displayed sound 2-way hockey.  Yes he scored what I think is the most astounding individual goal in NHL history at Phoenix.  (I assume everyone on the planet has viewed that once.  If my memory serves, I saw it live after coming home from work on East Coast time…it was President’s Day or some minor holiday with a matinee, Phoenix time.)

 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by SaucyJack

[Holymakinaw]

On 8/5/2021 at 4:54 AM, flyercanuck said:

I sense something coming....

 

Headline "Matthews passes Gretzky alltime goal record!"

(WoW prorated of course)

 

 

 

Well let's examine that possibility.  Matthews already has 273 goals and is 25 years old.  Going by what all the "Ovie will keep scoring 35 goals/year from age 37 to 40 years old because he's OVIE", thing........Matthews should also be able to score 50 goals/year for the next, say....6 years, then say 40 goals a year for 6 years, and then just 35 goals/year from age 37 until he's 40.  Fair?   If Ovie can/should score 35/year at that age, so should Matthews, no?  He also a goal scoring machine.

 

That's 645 more goals coming for Matthews, to add to the 273 he already has.

 

That's 918 goals.  WOO HOOO!!!   

 

I dunno if Ovie ends up doing it, but if not, Matthews could.  

 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Holymakinaw

[flyercanuck]

On 12/9/2022 at 11:18 AM, Holymakinaw said:

 

Well let's examine that possibility.  Matthews already has 273 goals and is 25 years old.  Going by what all the "Ovie will keep scoring 35 goals/year from age 37 to 40 years old because he's OVIE", thing........Matthews should also be able to score 50 goals/year for the next, say....6 years, then say 40 goals a year for 6 years, and then just 35 goals/year from age 37 until he's 40.  Fair?   If Ovie can/should score 35/year at that age, so should Matthews, no?  He also a goal scoring machine.

 

That's 645 more goals coming for Matthews, to add to the 273 he already has.

 

That's 918 goals.  WOO HOOO!!!   

 

I dunno if Ovie ends up doing it, but if not, Matthews could.  

 

 

 

Sure, I mean Matthews has scored 50 goals....once in 7 seasons, so he should be able to do it every year from now on. 

 

Speaking of 645, if Kevin Hayes plays for 645 more years he could break gretzkys record.

 

 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

6 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Sure, I mean Matthews has scored 50 goals....once in 7 seasons, so he should be able to do it every year from now on. 

 

Speaking of 645, if Kevin Hayes plays for 645 more years he could break gretzkys record.

 

 

 

And the crazy thing is, Bettman will likely STILL be NHL President then.....they will have a cybernetic head of his, with all his memory engrams imprinted into it, telling us all about the 203,135th new format for the NHL all star game 

[NHL HHOF]

I just hope the Ovechkin goal that surpasses Gretzky is creative!

 

 

 

[Holymakinaw]

13 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Sure, I mean Matthews has scored 50 goals....once in 7 seasons, so he should be able to do it every year from now on. 

 

Speaking of 645, if Kevin Hayes plays for 645 more years he could break gretzkys record.

 

 

 

Meh.

 

In his first 7 years, Ovie scored 339 goals.

 

IN 6.5 years so far, Matthew already has 274.  Since he's pacing for around 43 goals right now, he could easily get to 50.......all he needs is a 2 week heater which is easy for him.  That would leave him at 324 for his firrst 7 years.........leaving him only 15 goals off Ovie's pace.  Close enough.  I think he can make that up.  

Edited December 12, 2022 by Holymakinaw

[NHL HHOF]

Ovechkin says joining Howe in 800-goal club would be 'pretty special'

Capitals forward needs 3 to join Mr, Hockey, Gretzky as only players to hit milestone

https://www.nhl.com/news/alex-ovechkin-saying-joining-gordie-howe-in-800-goal-club-would-be-pretty-special/c-338682792

 

[NHL HHOF]

 

 

[NHL HHOF]