Which teams have realistic chance at winning the cup in 22-23?

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

2 minutes ago, NHL HHOF said:

The Florida Panthers will knock out Pittsburgh for the #8 spot in the east. The Florida Panthers will win the Stanley Cup against Vegas, and Florida will re-sign Eric Staal to a 3-year $1.2 million contract and he will retire with 500 goals.

 

Did someone DARE you to post this?

Did someone insinuate that you don't take enough chances in life?

If so, well played.
Daring and chancy this prediction is!  

[NHL HHOF]

2 hours ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

 

Did someone DARE you to post this?

Did someone insinuate that you don't take enough chances in life?

If so, well played.
Daring and chancy this prediction is!  

 

Actually, it might be the Islanders that Florida will knock out for the # 8 spot. New York or Pittsburgh!

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

5 minutes ago, NHL HHOF said:

 

Actually, it might be the Islanders that Florida will knock out for the # 8 spot. New York or Pittsburgh!

 

Either way, my friend, Florida in the playoffs is a bit of a stretch...in the Finals? Very long odds indeed!   

[NHL HHOF]

April 14 is last day of regular season.

[NHL HHOF]

Does a losing team in overtime still get 1 point, or has that rule changed? Do they only get 1 point for losing in the shootout? I was looking at the standings and Florida is still at 73 points after losing in overtime last night.

[JR Ewing]

2 hours ago, NHL HHOF said:

Does a losing team in overtime still get 1 point, or has that rule changed? Do they only get 1 point for losing in the shootout? I was looking at the standings and Florida is still at 73 points after losing in overtime last night.

 

The W/L/OTL rules have been the same since 1999-00. The Panthers entered last night's game with 72 points, took the OTL and now have 73 points.

[SaucyJack]

With 26 days remaining in the regular season, the East wild card spots are turning into a 3 teams vying for 2 spots situation, with 4 other teams in grave danger of not keeping up well enough.

 

The teams have played between 68 (Det) and 71 (NYI, Wsh) games.  Adding 1 point for each game-in-hand on the 71-game clubs, here’s the latest going into Monday 20th March games.  It’s Spring Fling time for almost a month:

 

Pit 80

NYI 80

Fla 79

————

Buf 74

Ott 73

Wsh 73

Det 72

[Math]

I'm going with Pittsburgh out of the playoffs. Their defense is depleted with Pettersson and Kulikov out for a long period, and Petry along with Rutta dealing with injuries too. The Pens' goaltending tandem is also the worst among those teams fighting for a WC spot, Bobrovsky and Sorokin can still steal games on their respective side. Florida has defensive woes as well but like the Leafs the Cats have the offensive power to compensate. The Islanders will sneak in by default.

[SaucyJack]

And consider how unlikely that any of the lower 4 qualify for a wildcard with 11 games to go. Best chance if *two* of the three wildcard leaders falter.
 

But suppose one wildcard leader only gains 8 points in 11, another only 6 pts.  (The third leader doing better to secure first wildcard.). That puts the second wildcard leader at, say 88 pts.  So consider, say, Washington.  To get 89 points to eke in as 2nd wildcard instead of the faltering front runner, they’d need to snare 16 points out of a maximum 22.  Tall order; not impossible but bloody unlikely…and again two front runners being subpar in this example.

 

…in fact, fivethirtyeight.com have the odds for these underdogs at 4% (Buf), 3% (Wsh), 2% (Ott), <1% (Det).

 

As for the three front runners, they have them so close, each between 62 and 65% to earn a wildcard.

 

[SaucyJack]

Panthers are losing ground to Isles and Pens.  Caps can do the Cats some favors though.  First of Washington’s two home games vs the Islandudes is tonight, 29th of March.  Crazy schedule-making.   Cats also have a visit remaining to the Capita(o)l City.

I’ve already written the Caps off, elsewhere, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t welcome a miracle finish in the final 8 games.  (Will Anthony Mantha turn a possible win into a bone head defeat like in Pittsburgh the other day?  Will someone else?  Not ‘oldin me breaff…

[Icechipper]

 

 

Contenders:

Boston, Toronto, Rangers, Devils, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Colorado.

 

Pretenders: Pittsburgh, Islanders, Winnipeg, Dallas, Edmonton, Carolina, Los Angeles, Seattle, Florida.

 

Criteria just me spitballin'. Tis the season.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Icechipper

[Math]

In the East, it will be between Pittsburgh and Florida for the last spot and it will be decided probably in the very last game. The Isles sneaked in under the radar and they will be in the playoffs mostly thank to Sorokin (a hidden card for the Vézina).

 

In the West, seems like nobody wants the last WC. The Jets are trash, Calgary are not able to take advantage and make a push, and it's still crazy that the Preds are still in the discussion despite the injuries and being sellers at the trade deadline. I think Calgary will grab the last spot by accident.

[SaucyJack]

Nate Silver’s prognosticating bunch at fivethirtyeight.com have their view of things.  Is giving the Bruins only slightly more than a 1/3 chance to win the Cup sound about right?  Here’s their table going into March 31st games.

 

[yave1964]

24 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

Nate Silver’s prognosticating bunch at fivethirtyeight.com have their view of things.  Is giving the Bruins only slightly more than a 1/3 chance to win the Cup sound about right?  Here’s their table going into March 31st games.

 

I think that pct. For Boston is waaaaaay too high. Tampa at 3 pct??? Toronto at 5???? Realistically Boston has come back to earth a bit, the east is stacked I think Boston should be the favorite but around 20 pct. Which in a field of 16 is still a damn fine number. 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

1 minute ago, yave1964 said:

I think that pct. For Boston is waaaaaay too high. Tampa at 3 pct??? Toronto at 5???? Realistically Boston has come back to earth a bit, the east is stacked I think Boston should be the favorite but around 20 pct. Which in a field of 16 is still a damn fine number. 

 

Cleary the oddsmakers are still in love with the Avalanche.

Guess they missed the game the other day where the Wild basically took them to the woodshed, outplayed them along the boards, kicked their arses all over the place, and MN goaltending outplayed Colorado goaltending.

Not thinking for a second that the Wild can easily handle an Avalanche team over the course of seven games, or even that Minnesota should get out of a first round matchup, but I AM saying that Colorado CAN be contained if guys like Rantanen, MacKinnon, and Makar are smacked around and contained like the Wild did....and there are certainly teams on that list that can still do that to them.

[NHL HHOF]

Can Florida knock out Boston in the playoffs?

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

3 minutes ago, NHL HHOF said:

Can Florida knock out Boston in the playoffs?

 

Well...upsets can and do happen, BUT, according to Magic 8 Ball, and I concur.....

[JR Ewing]

Just to have fun in the form of tossing a live hand grenade in the room, Moneypuck has the Oilers with the best odds of winning the Cup.

 

https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

 

[yave1964]

I might agree with that, the East is so damn stacked that they are all going to beat each other to death throughout the playoffs. I am convinced that Tampa last year was better than Colorado but Colorado slept through most of the Western conference while Tampa fought for every series and between back to back cups and another long grueling run it finally caught up. Playing in a sterile scenario, everyone healthy and fresh team versus team I believe in my heart of hearts Tampa wins. Hands down.

 

  Vegas has no goaltending, Dallas maybe, possibly, Nashville/Calgary/Winnipeg/Seattle, no realistic path. The Kings? Waaayyyy overpaid for Korpi who is overrated as can be, goaltending will be their undoing. The Wild have no centers and a vanilla defense. Coolorado, it sounds like i was ripping them above, i really was not a damn fine team but all the pieces are not there and they are beat up going into the playoffs.

 

So Edmonton and Dallas are likely the two best Western teams but they both have flaws of their own, Edmonton will be holding their breath on every shot on net.  I really would rank Rangers, Carolina, the Devils, Leafs, Bolts, Bruins all better than anyone in the West but they will beat each other to death, just picking a team, the Leafs, uber deep might finally make a deep run, but the path goes through first Tampa, then Boston then whoever wins the other division. Edmonton plays Winnipeg, Vegas, then likely either Dallas or Colorado. Still tough but not as tough. Both teams, Edmonton and Toronto are alike, amazing forwards, underrated defense and cover your eyes when the puck is in the other zone. attrition says the Leafs are much more likely to be beaten up in the same way that the Bolts were down Cirelli and others last year. Not saying Edmonton has a walk in the park but comparably, yeah, they kinda do. 

 

[JR Ewing]

22 hours ago, yave1964 said:

So Edmonton and Dallas are likely the two best Western teams but they both have flaws of their own, Edmonton will be holding their breath on every shot on net.  I really would rank Rangers, Carolina, the Devils, Leafs, Bolts, Bruins all better than anyone in the West but they will beat each other to death, just picking a team, the Leafs, uber deep might finally make a deep run, but the path goes through first Tampa, then Boston then whoever wins the other division. Edmonton plays Winnipeg, Vegas, then likely either Dallas or Colorado. Still tough but not as tough. Both teams, Edmonton and Toronto are alike, amazing forwards, underrated defense and cover your eyes when the puck is in the other zone. attrition says the Leafs are much more likely to be beaten up in the same way that the Bolts were down Cirelli and others last year. Not saying Edmonton has a walk in the park but comparably, yeah, they kinda do. 

 

 

I mean... League average SV% is .899 and Skinner is at .911, and his Quality Starts out-number his Bad Starts 3-1. Personally, I'm not in love with the idea of relying on a rookie goaltender in the playoffs, but he's been reliable-enough this year, so he gets the starts. Campbell, however, has been hot garbage, and it wouldn't shock me in the least if Edmonton's opponents don't run Skinner constantly, hoping to get Campbell in net.

 

Not aimed at you at all, but there are common narratives around the Oilers which get thrown around a lot, but are running off the fumes of previous seasons:

 

-"They can't defend and have to rely on the power-play!" They have the 8th lowest Expected Goals Against, 8th fewest scoring chances against, and the 3rd lowest High Danger Chances Against at even-strength. They're not the best defensive team in the league, but are solidly in the top-third.

-"They rely on 3-on-3 OT for a lot of wins and they won't get that in the playoffs!" They have the 2nd most regulation wins in the NHL, 3rd highest Regulation Pt%, 2nd fewest OT wins in the NHL.

-"Too much of the cap is dedicated to McDavid and Draisaitl, so they don't have any depth!" Aside from the fact that $20M for two players of that quality is a bargain, Holland has steadily improved the depth during the flat-cap time:

 

Oilers +/- with and without McDavid/Draisaitl

 

None of this is to say that the Oilers will win the Cup, or if they will do well or anything like that. This is a really tough league, and quality teams get bounced in the first round every year. What I *am* saying is that they play a lot of their games after people in the East go to bed. They catch highlights of 97 and 29 doing ridiculous things, but don't really keep much of a close on things other than if their team is playing against Edmonton, and probably fall back a bit on their perceptions of the team.

 

[yave1964]

On 3/31/2023 at 7:21 PM, SaucyJack said:

Nate Silver’s prognosticating bunch at fivethirtyeight.com have their view of things.  Is giving the Bruins only slightly more than a 1/3 chance to win the Cup sound about right?  Here’s their table going into March 31st games.

 

I think that pct. For Boston is waaaaaay too high. Tampa at 3 pct??? Toronto at 5???? Realistically Boston has come back to earth a bit, the east is stacked I think Boston should be the favorite but around 20 pct. Which in a field of 16 is still a damn fine number. 

[yave1964]

9 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

 

I mean... League average SV% is .899 and Skinner is at .911, and his Quality Starts out-number his Bad Starts 3-1. Personally, I'm not in love with the idea of relying on a rookie goaltender in the playoffs, but he's been reliable-enough this year, so he gets the starts. Campbell, however, has been hot garbage, and it wouldn't shock me in the least if Edmonton's opponents don't run Skinner constantly, hoping to get Campbell in net.

 

Not aimed at you at all, but there are common narratives around the Oilers which get thrown around a lot, but are running off the fumes of previous seasons:

 

-"They can't defend and have to rely on the power-play!" They have the 8th lowest Expected Goals Against, 8th fewest scoring chances against, and the 3rd lowest High Danger Chances Against at even-strength. They're not the best defensive team in the league, but are solidly in the top-third.

-"They rely on 3-on-3 OT for a lot of wins and they won't get that in the playoffs!" They have the 2nd most regulation wins in the NHL, 3rd highest Regulation Pt%, 2nd fewest OT wins in the NHL.

-"Too much of the cap is dedicated to McDavid and Draisaitl, so they don't have any depth!" Aside from the fact that $20M for two players of that quality is a bargain, Holland has steadily improved the depth during the flat-cap time:

 

Oilers +/- with and without McDavid/Draisaitl

 

None of this is to say that the Oilers will win the Cup, or if they will do well or anything like that. This is a really tough league, and quality teams get bounced in the first round every year. What I *am* saying is that they play a lot of their games after people in the East go to bed. They catch highlights of 97 and 29 doing ridiculous things, but don't really keep much of a close on things other than if their team is playing against Edmonton, and probably fall back a bit on their perceptions of the team.

 

I agree this is by far Edmontons best team in the McDraisatl era, very deep, talented bunch. I think they are a step above the west with Dallas and possibly Vegas nipping at their heels. I just feel the East is so much better that it is hard to know how to rate them. Certainly heating up at the right time.

 

   So are you certain skinner gets the net to start or is that speculation?

[JR Ewing]

3 hours ago, yave1964 said:

I agree this is by far Edmontons best team in the McDraisatl era, very deep, talented bunch. I think they are a step above the west with Dallas and possibly Vegas nipping at their heels. I just feel the East is so much better that it is hard to know how to rate them. Certainly heating up at the right time.

 

100%

 

3 hours ago, yave1964 said:

   So are you certain skinner gets the net to start or is that speculation?

 

It's a certainty.

 

Jay Woodcroft has only started Jack Campbell five times in the last month and a half. The opponents were Columbus, Winnipeg, San Jose, Arizona and Anaheim, and the only reason he was given the Winnipeg game was because it was the team's second game in two nights. Before that, Campbell's run of starts was in January, when Skinner was unavailable due to his wife's health issues surrounding her pregnancy.

[Math]

@JR Ewing Very good insights, and some surprising ones like the one of the fewest OT wins. The Oilers has arguably one of the best top-6 in the League with a great center spine. I feel they lack two things: first, a top blueliner D-man. Bouchard has been somehow promoted in that role with the Barrie trade and I'm wondering if he can be that guy in the future and it he has the shoulders sufficiently large to assume that role... Second, an experimented workhorse goalie, but unfortunately those don't grow on trees...

 

In the East, I was exstatic about the Leafs and their all-in aggressive strategy. If they have filled some blatant holes in their team, I still have concerns on the true impact of all their acquisitions. Schenn and McCabe seems to be redundant, Gustafsson is defensively awful and aims a third-pair or #7 Dman at best, Lafferty is ok but a game changer at all, O'Reilly and Acciari will lack competition. And like always, hold your breath on the goaltending. Tough match-up against the Lightining and I'm still leaning for a Tampa win because of Vasilevsky, even tough Tampa have been inconsistent lately.

[yave1964]

5 hours ago, Math said:

@JR Ewing Very good insights, and some surprising ones like the one of the fewest OT wins. The Oilers has arguably one of the best top-6 in the League with a great center spine. I feel they lack two things: first, a top blueliner D-man. Bouchard has been somehow promoted in that role with the Barrie trade and I'm wondering if he can be that guy in the future and it he has the shoulders sufficiently large to assume that role... Second, an experimented workhorse goalie, but unfortunately those don't grow on trees...

 

In the East, I was exstatic about the Leafs and their all-in aggressive strategy. If they have filled some blatant holes in their team, I still have concerns on the true impact of all their acquisitions. Schenn and McCabe seems to be redundant, Gustafsson is defensively awful and aims a third-pair or #7 Dman at best, Lafferty is ok but a game changer at all, O'Reilly and Acciari will lack competition. And like always, hold your breath on the goaltending. Tough match-up against the Lightining and I'm still leaning for a Tampa win because of Vasilevsky, even tough Tampa have been inconsistent lately.

I snagged Bouchard the very moment that they made the Ekholm in Barrie out moves. 

 

  Bouchard has 50-55 point Morgan Reilly lite written all over him. He was given the shot early in the year and clearly was not ready, but a half a season on the second unit helped him rebuild his confidence and he has been damn good, not great but IMHO damn good since the trade (s). 

 

  IDK man, Edmonton DOES lack the clear number one, but a core of Nurse who i absolutely love, Bouchard, Ekholm, that is not bad at all. The problem is from there Ceci and Kulal are just bodies, nothing more, Broberg has done nothing to show that he is ready to step into a top four role, Biemelainen is simply not a realistic option, a 26 year old nobody named Vincent Desharnais has come from the ash pit and stabilized the defense, i really believe he is fools gold. I absolutely love the top three, after that it is cringy. I believe this is beyond dispute.

 

  That is the problem with todays cap era. You simply cannot fill all the spots with top level talent the way the 2002 Wings did when they bought a cup in 2002 bringing in Robitaille, Hull and Hasek in one spectacular offseason.  Every team has a hole or two to fill, in the Oilers case it is the back end of the blueline. 

 

  I agree with @JR Ewing the Oil forwards are easily by far the best in this incantation. They may be enough to carry the forwards. Someone on the back end may get a chip on their shoulder the way that Kadri did last year and say, we are sick of hearing we are the weak link and step up and be a 30 minute a night force like Pronger was years ago. I truly could see Nurse doing exactly that. I also could see a good coach playing against them especially with last change exploiting matchups on the back end and grinding down the bottom pair and even the middle pair on the back end. That said in todays cap era they have as good a shot as anyone to come out of the West.