Which teams have realistic chance at winning the cup in 22-23?

[yave1964]

Lots more teams still in it as February flips towards the second half of the month, of course that depends on what you mean by 'in it'. By in it, do you mean having a shot or at the least an outside shot at making the postseason? By in it, do you mean the Bedard Sweepstakes? By in it, do you mean a cup contender? That is what i am gonna address with this quick little write up.

 

 ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE Teams that fall in this category are those who are eliminated already more or less from postseason contention

MONTREAL, ARIZONA, COLUMBUS, ANAHEIM, ARIZONA, SAN JOSE, VANCOUVER, ST. LOUIS, PHILLY, OTTAWA

 

CHANCE OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS AS FIRST ROUND FODDER IF EVERYTHING BREAKS RIGHT These teams likely will be home come April but if they get hot and someone above them gets cold they have a chance to lose in five games to a much superior team in the first round

DETROIT, NASHVILLE, BUFFALO, ISLANDERS, WASHINGTON Nashville is the poster child for this type of organization for a quarter of a century, a succesful year is losing the first round in six, a poor year is swept in the first round. Horrible place to be stuck

 

PLAYOFF CONTENDER, CUP PRETENDER These teams are very likely in but have next to no chance of actually winning the cup.

CALGARY, MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH, SEATTLE, THE PEG, NEW JERSEY, THE KINGS. Some are to old, some are too young, some are simply missing a key ingredient or two, none have a realistic chance of winning the cup this year. 

 

COULD WIN THE CUP-OR MISS THE PLAYOFFS ENTIRELY. Two teams due to different reasons could wind up on the outside looking in or if they make the postseason could run the table and win the cup.

FLORIDA AND COLORADO. 

  Florida got off to a glacial cold start but is dangerous and playing damn good hockey right now (ignore the sloppy loss last night) and nobody would want to face them, they are built for postseason hockey but have to jump past the Caps and  hold off a few challengers to make it in. If so, they are dangerous. Same with the Avalanche, right now Colorado is in 9th place out West, spinning wheels but still talented, still the champs and they know how to win.

 

TIRED OF SAYING THEY COULD WIN, PROVE IT NOW OR BLOW IT UP MODE

 

EDMONTON AND OF COURSE TORONTO. Both have the talent to say they are absolute contenders for the cup but both are habitual early outs. Toronto is looking like the real deal and Edmonton is peaking, both have to be considered true cup contenders at this point but win a series or two before talking to me. I would have to say that both are true contenders but the pressure they are feeling is internal as much as anything.

 

THE ELITE You could say Edmonton and Toronto in this category but they really do deserve their own subset for now. These teams are the ones who will likely be battling each other in late April through May

 

DALLAS BOSTON RANGERS CAROLINA GOLDEN KNIGHTS AND LIGHTNING

 

These six along with the two Canadian underacheivers are where the cup winners and likely even final four will come from. Nobody would be surprised if any of the above win the cup, in fact it will be a shock if two of the above are not in the cup final. 

 

  So 20, 21 teams fighting for the playoffs, somewhere between 6 and 8 teams have a realistic chance at hoisting Lord Stanleys chalice at the end of the year. This is actually quite a high figure, usually it is around three or four teams come April who have a shot, parity has come to the NHL this year in a big way.

[IllaZilla]

I think Minnesota is sliding towards the "CHANCE OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS AS FIRST ROUND FODDER IF EVERYTHING BREAKS RIGHT". So far on this recent home stand they've gotten 3 out of a possible 8 points, and are still having trouble scoring 5-on-5. Once again, they are stuck in a cycle of mediocrity. Decent talent, but will finish just missing the playoffs or a first round exit where they will get a nice draft pick, but no one that will be a game changer...

[pilldoc]

1 hour ago, yave1964 said:

EDMONTON AND OF COURSE TORONTO. Both have the talent to say they are absolute contenders for the cup but both are habitual early outs. Toronto is looking like the real deal and Edmonton is peaking, both have to be considered true cup contenders at this point but win a series or two before talking to me. I would have to say that both are true contenders but the pressure they are feeling is internal as much as anything.

 

If the Oilers ever get a legit goalie then I would bump them up to Elite.  IMO they have all the other pieces EXCEPT the the player manning the net.  I said it in another thread, the Achilles heal for this organization resides in net.  I cannot believe their GM has not addressed this.  And NO...Campbell really was not an option as he really has not proven anything yet in the NHL.  Now Skinner "might" be the answer, be he is still young .....

 

[FD19372]

1 hour ago, pilldoc said:

 

If the Oilers ever get a legit goalie then I would bump them up to Elite.  IMO they have all the other pieces EXCEPT the the player manning the net.  I said it in another thread, the Achilles heal for this organization resides in net.  I cannot believe their GM has not addressed this.  And NO...Campbell really was not an option as he really has not proven anything yet in the NHL.  Now Skinner "might" be the answer, be he is still young .....

 

The same could be said for Toronto. If they ever get a goalie, they would be elite IN THE PLAYOFFS, when it matters most. A little more toughness would also help.

[yave1964]

45 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

The same could be said for Toronto. If they ever get a goalie, they would be elite IN THE PLAYOFFS, when it matters most. A little more toughness would also help.

Simmonds back on waivers, guess he is not the toughness answer 

  Truth, I kinda like the duo in net for the leafs. With that much offense you just need your goalies to not blow the games, samsonov especially when hot IMHO could steal a series and Murray though brittle has been there done that.

[IllaZilla]

5 hours ago, pilldoc said:

 

If the Oilers ever get a legit goalie then I would bump them up to Elite.  IMO they have all the other pieces EXCEPT the the player manning the net.  I said it in another thread, the Achilles heal for this organization resides in net.  I cannot believe their GM has not addressed this.  And NO...Campbell really was not an option as he really has not proven anything yet in the NHL.  Now Skinner "might" be the answer, be he is still young .....

 

 

Maybe they should contact the Wild about Gustavsson...because the Wild sure aren't going anywhere...

[JR Ewing]

13 hours ago, pilldoc said:

 

If the Oilers ever get a legit goalie then I would bump them up to Elite.  IMO they have all the other pieces EXCEPT the the player manning the net.  I said it in another thread, the Achilles heal for this organization resides in net.  I cannot believe their GM has not addressed this.  And NO...Campbell really was not an option as he really has not proven anything yet in the NHL.  Now Skinner "might" be the answer, be he is still young .....

 

 

After two periods of the Oilers badly out-playing the Wings, it's 4-2 DET, with Campbell surrendering 4 softies.      lol

 

[SaucyJack]

15 hours ago, yave1964 said:

those who are eliminated already more or less from postseason contention

…. OTTAWA

Unlikely, true.  But hardly astronomically so.  If the Sens were to win all three games-in-hand they hold over the Caps, they’d be one point behind them.
 

Of course they’d be in a multi-team dogfight for two slots with Pens, Caps, Cats, Isles, Wings, and Sabres in the last quarter of the season.

[pilldoc]

7 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

 

After two periods of the Oilers badly out-playing the Wings, it's 4-2 DET, with Campbell surrendering 4 softies.      lol

 

i rest my case …….

[Podein25]

11 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

 

After two periods of the Oilers badly out-playing the Wings, it's 4-2 DET, with Campbell surrendering 4 softies.      lol

 

 

I dunno if all 4 were softies. One went off a skate. But yeah, not his best outing. You have to admit he's been very good up until last night. Does Skinner just get the starting job back right away, or did he never really lose it?

[Math]

I got lower expectations for the Stars actually. Benn is unexpectedly much better than last year but the team is still too dependent of its first line production and Öttinger. They still have the talent to go past the first round let's say, but when you go in a deep run it's often your bottom six that can make the difference and I don't see Faksa, Glendening, Gurianov and Dell'Andrea capable to elevate their game, not to mention that Marchment is slowly trending to be defined as a bust. The D corps is also a bit too light and not well designed to go into dirty trench battles. 

[JR Ewing]

12 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

I dunno if all 4 were softies. One went off a skate. But yeah, not his best outing.

 

Maybe it would be better if I said that all 4 goals were within the range that an average NHL goaltender could generally be relied upon to make the save. To give him credit where it's due, he made an incredible save in the 3rd, stealing a sure goal from Detroit. Edmonton ought to have won the game 4-1 or 4-2 at worst.

 

12 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

You have to admit he's been very good up until last night. Does Skinner just get the starting job back right away, or did he never really lose it?

 

He's been quite uneven this year, but very good in January and so far in February, aside from last night's debacle, so he's been getting better.

 

 

I think he's a capable-enough goaltender on a good team, and the Oilers are definitely that. I know the other day, in the Oilers/Flyers thread, much crapping on of the depth was happening, but it's greatly improved. When McDavid and Draisaitl were off the ice, they were usually a -30 team, and that's up to +10... The Oilers don't require heroics from Campbell, in other words... A little over half of his starts in LA were quality, and it was 60% during his time in Toronto. So far, in Edmonton, his Quality Start% is 38.5, and I think that's unsustainably low given his history.

 

 

 

 

[yave1964]

1 hour ago, Math said:

I got lower expectations for the Stars actually. Benn is unexpectedly much better than last year but the team is still too dependent of its first line production and Öttinger. They still have the talent to go past the first round let's say, but when you go in a deep run it's often your bottom six that can make the difference and I don't see Faksa, Glendening, Gurianov and Dell'Andrea capable to elevate their game, not to mention that Marchment is slowly trending to be defined as a bust. The D corps is also a bit too light and not well designed to go into dirty trench battles. 

Here is why I feel Dallas is quite capable of making it out of the West, ure and simple,

 

At least the top five teams in the game are in the East. at least.

 

Boston

Carolina

Rangers

Leafs

Lightning

 

Just for starters.

 

out West, you  have 

 

Edmonton

Dallas

Vegas

Colorado

 

All could make it, Edmonton if their offense outplays their goaltending, Dallas if their goaltending outperforms the bottom six forwards, Vegas if they can get healthy and draw an inside straight, colorado if they get healthy but it feels as if something is absolutely missing from last years magical year.

 

In the East you also have

 

Florida

New Jersey

 

I wont but some would argue that both are better than any of the top four in the West.  Truth is the balance of power is so clearly bent towards the East, it almost looks as if the fight for the Cup is the fight to come out of the East. I think Dallas has as good a shot as anyone in the West mostly because of their Goaltending. And frankly, because of said goaltending I would say they are probably the only team in the West who has a realistic shot against any of at least the top five clubs in the East. Of course the deadline is not yet here, things can change, and whoever makes it through the grueling gauntlet in the East may be so weary and beaten down just getting there that whoever escapes the relatively easy West if unscathed might get lucky. But yeah, at least top five teams in the East are the top five teams in Hockey-period-full stop.

 

 I guess I should give Winnipeg a shot out of the West with Hellboy in net, they probably deserve to be part of the convo. 

 

 

 

 

[SaucyJack]

Now that Washington is in a tailspin losing all 3 of a homestand, the East final wildcard is up for grabs.  In fact, adjusting for games-in-hand, like baseball standings, Detroit has surpassed them for the final spot.

 

Ignoring that some games award 3 pts (roughly 22% of games), here I assume 1 extra point for each game in hand, as the average result. Adjusting to 58 games played for each (Florida has played 58, the most of these desperado squads), the East wild card points race is this:

 

Pittsburgh   68

Detroit           64

Washington  63

Buffalo          63

Florida           62

NY Isles         62

Ottawa          60

 

Play ball!  (Errrr…I mean “Play puck”…or something….eh heh heh.)

[yave1964]

7 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

Now that Washington is in a tailspin losing all 3 of a homestand, the East final wildcard is up for grabs.  In fact, adjusting for games-in-hand, like baseball standings, Detroit has surpassed them for the final spot.

 

Ignoring that some games award 3 pts (roughly 22% of games), here I assume 1 extra point for each game in hand, as the average result. Adjusting to 58 games played for each (Florida has played 58, the most of these desperado squads), the East wild card points race is this:

 

Pittsburgh   68

Detroit           64

Washington  63

Buffalo          63

Florida           62

NY Isles         62

Ottawa          60

 

Play ball!  (Errrr…I mean “Play puck”…or something….eh heh heh.)

Love this, thanks 

 

I would love nothing so much as seeing sid and Ovie on the outside this year. Problem is, with Pittsburgh luck they would win the lottery and get bedard lol. Seriously tho, the two wildcard clubs are likely first round fodder for Carolina and Boston but for some of these organizations making the postseason would be a great step

 

 

[SaucyJack]

5 hours ago, yave1964 said:

for some of these organizations making the postseason would be a great step

Yes, even if the Bruins or Canes beat them down in 1st round contests, young teams gain invaluable experience and understanding for future playoffs.  (And for regular season too, as its purpose, by and large, is for teams to garner good habits and know-how for useful employ in the playoffs. Undergoing that extra playoff intensity and conditions of attrition must be experienced.)

 

Such “experience” of being blasted away in the first round for the fifth straight year after their miraculous 2018 Stanley Cup playoff run would be utterly wasted on Washington as a whole.  (A few youngsters would gain, like Strome, Milano, Fehervary, and Aube-Kubel, but seemingly not to be employed meaningfully for years unless the Caps offload them to contenders.)

Edited February 17, 2023 by SaucyJack

[NHL HHOF]

The Florida Panthers will surprise everyone!

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

3 hours ago, NHL HHOF said:

The Florida Panthers will surprise everyone!

They’ve ALREADY surprised me…all season in fact.

By how spectacularly mediocre they’ve been

[SaucyJack]

What Casey Stengel, the first manager of the New York Mets in 1962, once said came to mind as I saw the Friday and Saturday scoreboard results for the East Desperados chasing wild card spots:

 

“Can’t anybody here play this game?”

 

My count is they were a collective 2-7; one win was forced (Pens/Isles game) and only one unforced (Sabes over Sharks).

 

Official NHL standings are so insanely misleading since the schedule makers have caused huge disparities in games played this year.  It is alarming that with roughly 25 games to play, that GP disparity at worst is 5 games, and frequently 3 or 4.

 

Adjusted to 59 games played, one added point per game-in-hand, now Buffalo is in the final playoff spot:

 

Pbgh   67

Buf       65

Det      64

NYI      63

Was     63

Fla       62

Ott       61

[NHL HHOF]

Kane goes to Toronto and Toronto wins the Stanley Cup!

[thegx.ca]

On 2/16/2023 at 10:26 AM, yave1964 said:

Here is why I feel Dallas is quite capable of making it out of the West, ure and simple,

 

At least the top five teams in the game are in the East. at least.

 

Boston

Carolina

Rangers

Leafs

Lightning

 

Just for starters.

 

out West, you  have 

 

Edmonton

Dallas

Vegas

Colorado

 

All could make it, Edmonton if their offense outplays their goaltending, Dallas if their goaltending outperforms the bottom six forwards, Vegas if they can get healthy and draw an inside straight, colorado if they get healthy but it feels as if something is absolutely missing from last years magical year.

 

In the East you also have

 

Florida

New Jersey

 

I wont but some would argue that both are better than any of the top four in the West.  Truth is the balance of power is so clearly bent towards the East, it almost looks as if the fight for the Cup is the fight to come out of the East. I think Dallas has as good a shot as anyone in the West mostly because of their Goaltending. And frankly, because of said goaltending I would say they are probably the only team in the West who has a realistic shot against any of at least the top five clubs in the East. Of course the deadline is not yet here, things can change, and whoever makes it through the grueling gauntlet in the East may be so weary and beaten down just getting there that whoever escapes the relatively easy West if unscathed might get lucky. But yeah, at least top five teams in the East are the top five teams in Hockey-period-full stop.

 

 I guess I should give Winnipeg a shot out of the West with Hellboy in net, they probably deserve to be part of the convo. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah I think Winnipeg is strongest in the West too...for me it's like this:

 

The East:

 

NY

CAR

TOR

 

Are the best chance to win it all in The East...New York is just stacked and with elite goalie...Carolina don't have to explain every year they lead the east...Toronto I put up there just because they are going all out and will spend to improve because their window is closing they know they might lose Matthews at free agency so depending on who they buy/rent cannot ignore the chance they make more moves on top of O'Reilly...

 

Teams I didn't include are TB too many changes from their back to back cups...BOS and NJ I don't think they can keep up their pace they have so far...

 

The West:

 

WPG

CGY

 

Winnipeg and Calgary on paper have no weaknesses they were expected to make the playoffs easily but Calgary still haven't gotten their **** together but I'm confident they will in time...

 

Western teams I didn't include are Los Vegas/Dallas they won't keep up the pace like BOS/NJ in East...Colorado on same boat TB was after back to back cups they got too many changes I mean losing the goalie that won you the Cup is a sign for me they won't repeat...Edmonton has chance if they improve on defense they goal tending is mediocre and that can't be fixed this year it seems unless they get Fleury somehow or maybe even Buffington since St Louis is having a fire sale so to improve their defence might be enough to push them past Winnipeg who swept Edmonton before and who I think can do same this year...

 

Seattle/LA/Minnesota/Nashville/etc are all just benefiting from weak divisions and from CGY/LV/EDM/COL/etc not being as strong as expected...

 

For me Calgary doesn't have to make many changes...if they could have kept Jarncrok and Gudbranson from last year I think they wouldn't have as such a weak start and at least wouldn't have blown as many leads as they have...

 

[thegx.ca]

42 minutes ago, Villella McMeans said:

Yeah I think Winnipeg is strongest in the West too...for me it's like this:

 

The East:

 

NY

CAR

TOR

 

Are the best chance to win it all in The East...New York is just stacked and with elite goalie...Carolina don't have to explain every year they lead the east...Toronto I put up there just because they are going all out and will spend to improve because their window is closing they know they might lose Matthews at free agency so depending on who they buy/rent cannot ignore the chance they make more moves on top of O'Reilly...

 

Teams I didn't include are TB too many changes from their back to back cups...BOS and NJ I don't think they can keep up their pace they have so far...

 

The West:

 

WPG

CGY

 

Winnipeg and Calgary on paper have no weaknesses they were expected to make the playoffs easily but Calgary still haven't gotten their **** together but I'm confident they will in time...

 

Western teams I didn't include are Los Vegas/Dallas they won't keep up the pace like BOS/NJ in East...Colorado on same boat TB was after back to back cups they got too many changes I mean losing the goalie that won you the Cup is a sign for me they won't repeat...Edmonton has chance if they improve on defense they goal tending is mediocre and that can't be fixed this year it seems unless they get Fleury somehow or maybe even Buffington since St Louis is having a fire sale so to improve their defence might be enough to push them past Winnipeg who swept Edmonton before and who I think can do same this year...

 

Seattle/LA/Minnesota/Nashville/etc are all just benefiting from weak divisions and from CGY/LV/EDM/COL/etc not being as strong as expected...

 

For me Calgary doesn't have to make many changes...if they could have kept Jarncrok and Gudbranson from last year I think they wouldn't have as such a weak start and at least wouldn't have blown as many leads as they have...

 

Forgot to mention that out of those few teams I think New York and Winnipeg are best chance to reach the final round and New York/Carolina/Toronto are the 3 teams I think will ultimately win Cup this year...

[thegx.ca]

4 hours ago, NHL HHOF said:

Kane goes to Toronto and Toronto wins the Stanley Cup!

Kane already denying it's a possibility so unless he changes his mind he won't go:

https://www.thegx.ca/forum/index.php?threads/kane-denies-leafs-as-trade-match-following-4-point-performance.1084/

[thegx.ca]

29 minutes ago, Villella McMeans said:

Kane already denying it's a possibility so unless he changes his mind he won't go:

https://www.thegx.ca/forum/index.php?threads/kane-denies-leafs-as-trade-match-following-4-point-performance.1084/

I wonder what Kane has against going to Toronto...I'd have thought he'd want to go there since Toronto is obviously going all out for the Cup this year...

[NHL HHOF]

The Florida Panthers will knock out Pittsburgh for the #8 spot in the east. The Florida Panthers will win the Stanley Cup against Vegas, and Florida will re-sign Eric Staal to a 3-year $1.2 million contract and he will retire with 500 goals.