Vinny: Breaking down the points per game....

[jammer2]

I've been reading Vinny is a point per game guy. Let's explore shall we? Thought this deserved it's own thread...

1999) 0.341 82GP rookie year

2000) 0.837 80GP

2001) 0.750 68GP

2002) 0.486 76GP

2003) 0.975 80GP

2004) 0.814 81GP

2005) 0,500 30GP strike year, totals from Russia

2006) 0.937 80GP

2007) 1.317 82GP

2008) 1.135 81GP

2009) 0.870 77GP

2010) 0.853 82GP

2011) 0.830 65GP

2012) 0.753 64GP

2013) 0.820 39GP

All totals from the year the Cup was awarded.

He only actually averaged a point per game 2 times, although it's quite obvious he has been in and around that mark most of his career. Also, he has had many, many years of playing full seasons, except the past 3 years, don't know what his injuries were, maybe someone can fill in the blanks here and see if anything we should be concerned about...or maybe just flukey hockey injuries, he has avoided them most of his career anyways.

Seems like Vinnie's totals going down when Stamkos started his career and he was demoted to the second line and second pp. Perhaps just conincidence, but I doubt it.

How many pts Vinnie averages as a Flyer will totally depend on his line slot and linemates. He has had a good solid career, but not HOF like some have said.

[OccamsRazor]

How many pts Vinnie averages as a Flyer will totally depend on his line slot and linemates. He has had a good solid career, but not HOF like some have said.

the only year he didn't finish with a minus he won the Cup...that year +23

[AMMOnation]

I've been reading Vinny is a point per game guy. Let's explore shall we? Thought this deserved it's own thread...

1999) 0.341 82GP rookie year

2000) 0.837 80GP

2001) 0.750 68GP

2002) 0.486 76GP

2003) 0.975 80GP

2004) 0.814 81GP

2005) 0,500 30GP strike year, totals from Russia

2006) 0.937 80GP

2007) 1.317 82GP

2008) 1.135 81GP

2009) 0.870 77GP

2010) 0.853 82GP

2011) 0.830 65GP

2012) 0.753 64GP

2013) 0.820 39GP

All totals from the year the Cup was awarded.

He only actually averaged a point per game 2 times, although it's quite obvious he has been in and around that mark most of his career. Also, he has had many, many years of playing full seasons, except the past 3 years, don't know what his injuries were, maybe someone can fill in the blanks here and see if anything we should be concerned about...or maybe just flukey hockey injuries, he has avoided them most of his career anyways.

Seems like Vinnie's totals going down when Stamkos started his career and he was demoted to the second line and second pp. Perhaps just conincidence, but I doubt it.

How many pts Vinnie averages as a Flyer will totally depend on his line slot and linemates. He has had a good solid career, but not HOF like some have said.

Jammer great post, he would have been on pace for 67 points last season if not for a shortened season.

Danny Briere was on 38 point pace in a full season. Granted he was injured last year, Lecavalier played 6 more games.

[jammer2]

@AMMOnation Just thought it was good to get the pt totals out in the open, so people can see the regrssion with their own eyes. It really happend, lol, it's not just a rumor. The guy has been a good solid player, but many, many miles on those legs and the lower point totals the past few years worry me. We are most certainly catching him on the downward slope.

[OccamsRazor]

We are most certainly catching him on the downward slope.

the Flyer way right...a lot of talk about Coburn to Oilers still heating up...

[OccamsRazor]

How many pts Vinnie averages as a Flyer will totally depend on his line slot and linemates. He has had a good solid career, but not HOF like some have said.

http://www.broadstre...lary-cap-flyers

At this point, it's easier to make fun of Paul Holmgren, the Flyers and their insane roster moves than just about anything in professional sports besides the New York Mets. These jokes are easy, and our instinct whenever Holmgren makes some sort of big move is to sit back and hurl them with reckless abandon.

It's a lazy instinct, and if you're making those jokes in the aftermath of Vincent Lecavalier signing a five-year, $22.5 million contract worth $4.5 million against the cap each year, you're wrong and probably being lazy. This is not a bad signing for the Flyers. It's weird and out of left field, but it's not bad at all. In fact, it's hard to argue it's anything but good.

You can look at this signing from a lot of different perspectives.

The simplest way: Danny Briere was going to make $6.5 million against the cap next season, and instead the Flyers got a younger, better version of him with $2 million in savings per year. That's nothing but awesome.

It's true that adding Lecavalier puts the Flyers above salary cap yet again this summer -- according to CapGeek, they're $318,522 above the cap right now. That, however, is with 14 forwards on the roster and nine (!) defensemen. They need to add a starting goaltender, yes, but they can easily acquire savings somewhere on the roster.

Here's what we have now, adding a slight $200,000 raise for RFA Erik Gustafsson to the mix:

--------------

FORWARDS

Hartnell ($4.750m) / Giroux ($3.750m) / Voracek ($4.250m)

B. Schenn ($3.110m) / Lecavalier ($4.500m) / Simmonds ($3.975m)

McGinn ($0.775m) / Couturier ($1.375m) / Read ($0.900m)

Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Talbot ($1.750m) / Akeson ($0.900m)

Laughton ($1.107m) / Rosehill ($0.675m)

DEFENSEMEN

Timonen ($6.000m) / L. Schenn ($3.600m)

Coburn ($4.500m) / Streit ($5.250m)

Grossmann ($3.500m) / Meszaros ($4.000m)

Gustafsson ($0.851m) / Gervais ($0.825m)

Bourdon ($0.613m) / Pronger ($4.941m)

GOALTENDERS

Mason ($1.500m)

Buyout: Bartulis ($0.100m)

------

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,429,022; BONUSES: $2,960,000

CAP SPACE (25-man roster):- $1,169,022

(We're pretty sure Pronger has to be on the roster on Day 1 before he can be placed on LTIR, so the Flyers have to account for that. There's a chance that this has changed in the new CBA, but until we know for sure otherwise, we're going to assume this is the case. They can't be over the cap on Day 1, so for accounting purposes right now, he counts. He will free the Flyers up with some space once the season starts, however, in case they need an injury call-up or whatever.

Far too many defensemen. I've advocated at least twice this week for dishing Andrej Meszaros for a bag of pucks, and I think there are teams that would take him for a late-round draft pick despite his injury woes and his bad contract. It's only one year before he's a free agent, and Meszaros is still a capable defenseman. Worst-case: waive the dude and at least get a little savings before exploring other options.

There's $4 million in cap savings right there. The Flyers have also been rumored to be shopping Braydon Coburn, and while that's not a move I'd make given the teams depth on defense, it's a possibility. They'd get some cap savings there as well, obviously depending on the pieces coming back in a Coburn trade, but let's pencil in $3.5 or $4 million saved against the cap with Mesz or Coburn even Nicklas Grossmann gone.

Beyond that, you can remove Marc-Andre Bourdon or Bruno Gervais from the roster -- one will be the seventh defenseman and the other will be in Glens Falls for an additional $600,000 to $800,000 in savings.

There are still a few question marks up front, most notably whether or not Scott Laughton makes the team out of camp and whether or not Jason Akeson and Tye McGinn make the team as well. Let's go with the most expensive possibility for our purposes right now. That means Akeson and Laughton make the opening night roster.

These moves would give the Flyers about $4 million in space. That's more than enough money to spend on a goaltender who can play half or more-than-half of the season with Steve Mason next year. Given that basically nobody is looking for a starting goalie at this stage, I can see the Flyers getting Tim Thomas for around $3.5 million.

If that happens, here's roughly what we'll have:

--------------

FORWARDS

Hartnell ($4.750m) / Giroux ($3.750m) / Voracek ($4.250m)

Lecavalier ($4.500m) / B. Schenn ($3.110m) / Simmonds ($3.975m)

Talbot ($1.750m) / Couturier ($1.375m) / Read ($0.900m)

Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Laughton ($1.107m) / Akeson ($0.900m)

Rosehill ($0.675m)

DEFENSEMEN

Timonen ($6.000m) / L. Schenn ($3.600m)

Coburn ($4.500m) / Streit ($5.250m)

Grossmann ($3.500m) / Gustafsson ($0.851m)

Gervais ($0.825m)

Pronger ($4.941m)

GOALTENDERS

Thomas ($3.500m)

Mason ($1.500m)

Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)

------

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,541,522; BONUSES: $2,960,000

CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $718,478

It's tight, but completely workable. And maybe I'm crazy, but that's probably a playoff team if the injuries from last year don't repeat themselves and the younger guys continue to grow. (Playing with Vincent Lecavalier should help in that regard!)

Better in goal, better on defense, better up front. It's not a Cup contender, but it's a good improvement on a team that probably would've been a playoff team last season had they played 82 games.

***

That's 2013. What about next 2014 and beyond? Shouldn't we be worried about the need to sign Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier and Brayden Schenn, who are all restricted free agents a year from now?

The salary cap under the new CBA is still tied directly to league revenues, and considering that the NHL made a reported $2.4 billion in this lockout-shortened season, and that they'll have the beef of SIX outdoor games next season, revenues are going to friggin skyrocket. Bruins stupid jerk owner Jeremy Jacobs expects the cap will jump up substantially next year. Obnoxious player agent Allan Walsh thinks it'll be around $70 million as it was this past season. These are people who would know, and they are also people who don't agree with each other much.

Let's say it'll be back at $70.2 million as it was in 2012-13. That might be a low estimate actually, but let's roll with it. If that's the cap situation, the Flyers will have 13 players under contract for $43.5 million in 2014-15, leaving $26.7 million in cap space. Giroux will take roughly $7-8 million of that. Schenn will get a raise in actual dollars, but considering his high bonuses but his cap hit at $3.1 million already, we don't need to account for much more of a raise against the cap. Couturier will get a slight raise in his next contract, probably somewhere around $3 million against the cap.

So let's pencil in Giroux at $8 million, Schenn at $3.5 million and Couturier at $3.2 million. (For comparison, consider Giroux got paid $3.75 million against the cap on his second contract.) All loose estimates, but we're still a year out from them hitting the market. That'd put the Flyers at about $12 million in cap space with 16 players under contract including Pronger.

It's hard to forecast any further than that really, but that's not the salary cap doomsday all the lazy pundits on Twitter seem to be talking about.

In the scenario that it does become cap hell, it's not as if the Vincent Lecavalier contract is what's put them there And if push comes to shove and they need to ditch it, a $4.5 million salary cap hit is insanely friendly. He has a no-trade clause, but that doesn't mean he's not tradable. It means he has to approve a trade. I'm sure Tampa Bay would love him back at a $4.5 million hit a calendar year from now.

***

The Flyers signing of Vincent Lecavalier was not crazy. It makes them a better team next year and likely won't hurt them much if any down the road. And if they determine it will hurt them down the road, it won't be difficult rid from their books.

You know what's actually crazy? Having $45.2 million wrapped up in just eight players for 2014-15. Maybe we should talk about that sometime.

Edited July 3, 2013 by OccamsRazor

[jammer2]

@OccamsRazor I still contend it was a reckless use of cap space. Sigh, another over the hill, past his prime additon that is *supposed* to bring the Flyers a Cup. Like rux said earilier, been there....done that. There is no way anyone can spin this into a good addition. It was not needed, not wanted by sane members of the fan base....reckless.

[doom88]

Razor's post seems rational. Depending how the rest of the offseason plays out, this could actually be very good. Reasonable cap hit too. What will Homer do next, never a dull moment.

[OccamsRazor]

There is no way anyone can spin this into a good addition.

I'm trying...really...hard...what else can we do????????????????????????????

And more is coming...the wrecking ball i'm afraid has just cranked up........

[AMMOnation]

http://www.broadstre...lary-cap-flyers

At this point, it's easier to make fun of Paul Holmgren, the Flyers and their insane roster moves than just about anything in professional sports besides the New York Mets. These jokes are easy, and our instinct whenever Holmgren makes some sort of big move is to sit back and hurl them with reckless abandon.

It's a lazy instinct, and if you're making those jokes in the aftermath of Vincent Lecavalier signing a five-year, $22.5 million contract worth $4.5 million against the cap each year, you're wrong and probably being lazy. This is not a bad signing for the Flyers. It's weird and out of left field, but it's not bad at all. In fact, it's hard to argue it's anything but good.

You can look at this signing from a lot of different perspectives.

The simplest way: Danny Briere was going to make $6.5 million against the cap next season, and instead the Flyers got a younger, better version of him with $2 million in savings per year. That's nothing but awesome.

It's true that adding Lecavalier puts the Flyers above salary cap yet again this summer -- according to CapGeek, they're $318,522 above the cap right now. That, however, is with 14 forwards on the roster and nine (!) defensemen. They need to add a starting goaltender, yes, but they can easily acquire savings somewhere on the roster.

Here's what we have now, adding a slight $200,000 raise for RFA Erik Gustafsson to the mix:

--------------

FORWARDS

Hartnell ($4.750m) / Giroux ($3.750m) / Voracek ($4.250m)

B. Schenn ($3.110m) / Lecavalier ($4.500m) / Simmonds ($3.975m)

McGinn ($0.775m) / Couturier ($1.375m) / Read ($0.900m)

Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Talbot ($1.750m) / Akeson ($0.900m)

Laughton ($1.107m) / Rosehill ($0.675m)

DEFENSEMEN

Timonen ($6.000m) / L. Schenn ($3.600m)

Coburn ($4.500m) / Streit ($5.250m)

Grossmann ($3.500m) / Meszaros ($4.000m)

Gustafsson ($0.851m) / Gervais ($0.825m)

Bourdon ($0.613m) / Pronger ($4.941m)

GOALTENDERS

Mason ($1.500m)

Buyout: Bartulis ($0.100m)

------

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,429,022; BONUSES: $2,960,000

CAP SPACE (25-man roster):- $1,169,022

(We're pretty sure Pronger has to be on the roster on Day 1 before he can be placed on LTIR, so the Flyers have to account for that. There's a chance that this has changed in the new CBA, but until we know for sure otherwise, we're going to assume this is the case. They can't be over the cap on Day 1, so for accounting purposes right now, he counts. He will free the Flyers up with some space once the season starts, however, in case they need an injury call-up or whatever.

Far too many defensemen. I've advocated at least twice this week for dishing Andrej Meszaros for a bag of pucks, and I think there are teams that would take him for a late-round draft pick despite his injury woes and his bad contract. It's only one year before he's a free agent, and Meszaros is still a capable defenseman. Worst-case: waive the dude and at least get a little savings before exploring other options.

There's $4 million in cap savings right there. The Flyers have also been rumored to be shopping Braydon Coburn, and while that's not a move I'd make given the teams depth on defense, it's a possibility. They'd get some cap savings there as well, obviously depending on the pieces coming back in a Coburn trade, but let's pencil in $3.5 or $4 million saved against the cap with Mesz or Coburn even Nicklas Grossmann gone.

Beyond that, you can remove Marc-Andre Bourdon or Bruno Gervais from the roster -- one will be the seventh defenseman and the other will be in Glens Falls for an additional $600,000 to $800,000 in savings.

There are still a few question marks up front, most notably whether or not Scott Laughton makes the team out of camp and whether or not Jason Akeson and Tye McGinn make the team as well. Let's go with the most expensive possibility for our purposes right now. That means Akeson and Laughton make the opening night roster.

These moves would give the Flyers about $4 million in space. That's more than enough money to spend on a goaltender who can play half or more-than-half of the season with Steve Mason next year. Given that basically nobody is looking for a starting goalie at this stage, I can see the Flyers getting Tim Thomas for around $3.5 million.

If that happens, here's roughly what we'll have:

--------------

FORWARDS

Hartnell ($4.750m) / Giroux ($3.750m) / Voracek ($4.250m)

Lecavalier ($4.500m) / B. Schenn ($3.110m) / Simmonds ($3.975m)

Talbot ($1.750m) / Couturier ($1.375m) / Read ($0.900m)

Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Laughton ($1.107m) / Akeson ($0.900m)

Rosehill ($0.675m)

DEFENSEMEN

Timonen ($6.000m) / L. Schenn ($3.600m)

Coburn ($4.500m) / Streit ($5.250m)

Grossmann ($3.500m) / Gustafsson ($0.851m)

Gervais ($0.825m)

Pronger ($4.941m)

GOALTENDERS

Thomas ($3.500m)

Mason ($1.500m)

Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)

------

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,541,522; BONUSES: $2,960,000

CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $718,478

It's tight, but completely workable. And maybe I'm crazy, but that's probably a playoff team if the injuries from last year don't repeat themselves and the younger guys continue to grow. (Playing with Vincent Lecavalier should help in that regard!)

Better in goal, better on defense, better up front. It's not a Cup contender, but it's a good improvement on a team that probably would've been a playoff team last season had they played 82 games.

***

That's 2013. What about next 2014 and beyond? Shouldn't we be worried about the need to sign Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier and Brayden Schenn, who are all restricted free agents a year from now?

The salary cap under the new CBA is still tied directly to league revenues, and considering that the NHL made a reported $2.4 billion in this lockout-shortened season, and that they'll have the beef of SIX outdoor games next season, revenues are going to friggin skyrocket. Bruins stupid jerk owner Jeremy Jacobs expects the cap will jump up substantially next year. Obnoxious player agent Allan Walsh thinks it'll be around $70 million as it was this past season. These are people who would know, and they are also people who don't agree with each other much.

Let's say it'll be back at $70.2 million as it was in 2012-13. That might be a low estimate actually, but let's roll with it. If that's the cap situation, the Flyers will have 13 players under contract for $43.5 million in 2014-15, leaving $26.7 million in cap space. Giroux will take roughly $7-8 million of that. Schenn will get a raise in actual dollars, but considering his high bonuses but his cap hit at $3.1 million already, we don't need to account for much more of a raise against the cap. Couturier will get a slight raise in his next contract, probably somewhere around $3 million against the cap.

So let's pencil in Giroux at $8 million, Schenn at $3.5 million and Couturier at $3.2 million. (For comparison, consider Giroux got paid $3.75 million against the cap on his second contract.) All loose estimates, but we're still a year out from them hitting the market. That'd put the Flyers at about $12 million in cap space with 16 players under contract including Pronger.

It's hard to forecast any further than that really, but that's not the salary cap doomsday all the lazy pundits on Twitter seem to be talking about.

In the scenario that it does become cap hell, it's not as if the Vincent Lecavalier contract is what's put them there And if push comes to shove and they need to ditch it, a $4.5 million salary cap hit is insanely friendly. He has a no-trade clause, but that doesn't mean he's not tradable. It means he has to approve a trade. I'm sure Tampa Bay would love him back at a $4.5 million hit a calendar year from now.

***

The Flyers signing of Vincent Lecavalier was not crazy. It makes them a better team next year and likely won't hurt them much if any down the road. And if they determine it will hurt them down the road, it won't be difficult rid from their books.

You know what's actually crazy? Having $45.2 million wrapped up in just eight players for 2014-15. Maybe we should talk about that sometime.

Just wrote this in another thread but regarding the cap:

It goes up after next season, dramatically I understand.

After Pronger is placed on LTIR, they have 4-4.5 in free space.

I think the defense is done as-is. No Pronger-type in there, Schenn has the potential as he still develops. Regardless the defense is deep with top-4 guys. Which is why I doubt they take Coburn, who has been very healthy, and trade him. Too many questions with Mez, Grossman, and goalie.

Whether they sign Thomas or Halak, I don't think either will be more than 3.5 million. It might even be Emery for less.

Gus has to be resigned probably 1.5?

Here is my wild-card, how does Gagne look on the 2nd line next to Vinny? Maybe rejuvenated. Resign for 1.8ish?

[jammer2]

@doom88 The cap hit is nice, and will look much better after the craziness of July 5th transpires. This still *reeks* of no plan, no sturdy direction for this team, just a mish mash of seat of your pants GM'ing. We a real life rudderless ship with a captain who in not sea worthy. Sure, there will be more moves, but will they be a means to an end?

When is the last time we made a major signing that we didn't have to worry about the last few years of the deal? This is no way to run a team. The "win now" attitude of this management team is sickening. As rad would say....chasing the dragon....rinse, lather, repeat.....

[aziz]

@OccamsRazor I still contend it was a reckless use of cap space.

well, I mean, $4.5mil cap hit for a 70 point center with years of experience, specifically experience with very young but highly talented linemates and teammates....I kinda think that sounds pretty ok.

Sigh, another over the hill, past his prime additon that is *supposed* to bring the Flyers a Cup.

you know it doesn't work that way. this was a good add that I honestly think makes the team better. bring the flyers a cup? nothing is going to "bring the flyers a cup". with a good enough team, you have a chance every spring to earn one. the better the team, the better the chance, and the flyers are a better team tonight than they were last night. over the hill, past his prime, sure, he isn't the lecavalier of 06-07. he hasn't been that guy since the shoulder surgery in 08. still, .82 p/g last season, .76 the season before, .83 the season before that. those are still quality numbers.

look, you *can't* do this entirely on the back of kids under the age of 25. you *have* to have a thread of experience running through the lockerroom. hossa, handzus and sharp this last spring. Edmonton has done an excellent job of showing us what happens when you have nothing but extremely talented players who are still allowed to be on their parents' insurance plans.

the price isn't bad, the term a little much, the talent effective, the experience vital, and the demeanor invaluable. all things said, I don't see a problem here.

Edited July 3, 2013 by aziz

[terp]

@doom88 When is the last time we made a major signing that we didn't have to worry about the last few years of the deal? This is no way to run a team. The "win now" attitude of this management team is sickening. As rad would say....chasing the dragon....rinse, lather, repeat.....

Well put. Steit and Lecavalier makes two such moves in one off season. Ugh.

[jammer2]

@aziz Homer runs this team like I run my fantasy hockey team (except I win once and a while). It's unhealthy to overturn the roster as much he does. Experience is great, and of course important for any team wanting to make a deep run. I just wish I didn't have this forboding feeling it will come back and bite us in the ass when he's 37 and 38. This guy has played a LOT of hockey, and is already regressing. That makes me nervous. If he's not on G's line, his numbers will probably regress again, for the 4th straight year.

The one thing that puzzled me was his face off winning percentage, an elite 54.4 last year, but the year before, a horrid 47.3....what a huge swing, wonder why that is. The Flyers *should* be improved in the face off circle next year....but with stats like that, ya gotta wonder which Vinne will be taking draws. Wonder if he had a lingering wrist injury or something to produce such a ghastly difference from one year to the next.

We will be a better team with Vinnie, but at what price, who will Homer put on the chopping block to accomodate his salary, these are varibles that must be worked in when assessing this deal. On the surface, it look's like we gave up nothing to sign him, but I'd argue the actual price will be paid in coming weeks.

" Edmonton has done an excellent job of showing us what happens when you have nothing but extremely talented players who are still allowed to be on their parents' insurance plans."

Edmonton is doing it the right way, they know they are not going to win right now. They are patiently waiting for the kids to develop....then will add guys like Vinny, when they are on the cusp of greatness. Edmonton has a rough idea on when their window to win is, probably a few years down the road. Until then, they will sit back and let nature take it's course. They won't sign guys who will take away from the kids ice time and development.

Speaking of windows....when does ours start to open? Is it after the next big FA signing, after the next big trade, when we turn over a quarter of our roster? Who knows....cause guess what, there is no plan in Philly like there is in Edmonton.

[aziz]

<br />This guy has played a LOT of hockey, and is already regressing. That makes me nervous. If he's not on G's line, his numbers will probably regress again, for the 4th straight year.<br />

I don't believe he is regressing. he had that matt cooke-delivered shoulder injury in 07-08, and after surgery that summer, he was never quite the same. gone was the 100 point lecavalier and in came the 70 point one. but he has been consistent in that since. he has missed time in each of the last few seasons, so there is room for concern there, but he has not faded year on year. he took a step down at one point, but has maintained that lower level, and i'd expect that to continue. his points per game since 07-08 go .87, .85, .83, .76, .82. so, dropping a hundredth of a point per season on average. in 5 years that puts him at .77p/g, and i'm ok with that. there is no precipitous drop indicative of a player on his last legs. a formerly elite player is now hampered by the aftereffects of an injury, but has found a way to continue to be productive.

as for faceoffs, I can't explain it, other than to say winning a face off is not all about the center. the supporting cast has to do their jobs, too, and he has had some less than impressive teammates over the last several years. we'll see what he does this season, though I wouldn't be too shocked if the plan is to have him on a wing. so.

We will be a better team with Vinnie, but at what price, who will Homer put on the chopping block to accomodate his salary, these are varibles that must be worked in when assessing this deal. On the surface, it look's like we gave up nothing to sign him, but I'd argue the actual price will be paid in coming weeks.

let's wait to see what that price is before the freaking out begins. this signing, in a vacuum, I like. if there is another gutting of the team to follow, then that's different, but let's see what actually happens. by my math, the flyers don't actually have to do anything at this point, cap-wise. pronger on LTIR out of camp either gets them below the ceiling or just barely above it. this doesn't *have* to mean anyone will be on the chopping block.

Edmonton is doing it the right way, they know they are not going to win right now. They are patiently waiting for the kids to develop....then will add guys like Vinny, when they are on the cusp of greatness.

disagree completely. Edmonton is teaching kids what it is like to fail repeatedly, getting them used to early summers and allowing their confidence to be leached away by continued losing seasons. Edmonton needs a vet backbone NOW, and every game that goes by where those kids are hung out to dry is a game where they see themselves more and more as unable to compete. or, as is more likely with extremely high talent kids, focus more and more on individual numbers and see the team result as less and less important. from what i've seen over the last 30 years, learning to play this game at the NHL level requires youth be draped across a veteran framework. you bring these kids out and say, "hey, you're it, go do it," and they will fall on their face. wanna know why Giroux struggled last season? no jagr. not jagr's point scoring ability, but the confidence and inner-line leadership he provided. last season, Giroux was all alone trying to be the big man, and didn't get it done. if we want the best from him now and in the future, put someone who has been there/done that on his wing. like, say, lecavalier.

Speaking of windows....when does ours start to open? Is it after the next big FA signing, after the next big trade, when we turn over a quarter of our roster? Who knows....cause guess what, there is no plan in Philly like there is in Edmonton.

windows? it is the NHL, with a salary cap. the window is open to any team willing to spend to the cap, always. when the actually likely window opens...two years from now? provided the core to the team can find a swagger between now and then. which, again, requires at least some players who already have that. Edmonton never will. Edmonton will keep its tail between its legs, as any dog who has been beaten year on year will. until they finally realize you need experienced players to add direction and stability. or until their crop of top 5 picks hit their 2nd and 3rd contracts and get the hell out of that black hole.

[brelic]

I posted this in the other thread, but it's relevant here:

THE STATS GUY ‏@TH2NSTATSGUY 10h

Last 3 years, Lecavalier averaging more Pts/G than Marleau, Gaborik, Parise, Krejci, Kesler, Briere, Carter, Richards, Heatley, Doan, Alfie

So while he's regressing, he's still performing above many other players who make MUCH MUCH more than he does.

Here's some more food for thought: Hartnell is the highest paid Flyer forward.

That's not a typo. It will only last until Giroux gets his extension, but that's just another example of a bad Homer contract. Too much money, too long, full NMC for Hartnell.

So in that context, Vinny is a steal. It's just the wrong player

I'm trying *really hard* to find positivity!!

[OccamsRazor]

Schenn has the potential as he still develops.

He will be a LW and won't have to worry about being moved around unless of injuries. Gus will get his 10% raise up to maybe 1.1.-1.2mill. Mezz traded for a 7th and Gervais will be waived....Bourdon won't last through waivers i believe head issues and all.

Coburn won't be moved unless a younger Dman is coming back. The backup goalie i won't even venture to guess who it will be...

Edited July 3, 2013 by OccamsRazor

[OccamsRazor]

well, I mean, $4.5mil cap hit for a 70 point center with years of experience, specifically experience with very young but highly talented linemates and teammates....I kinda think that sounds pretty ok.

Compared with what Horton is going to bank 6-7 mill per it looks like a steal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jammer2]

@aziz "windows? it is the NHL, with a salary cap. the window is open to any team willing to spend to the cap, always. when the actually likely window opens...two years from now? provided the core to the team can find a swagger between now and then. which, again, requires at least some players who already have that. Edmonton never will. Edmonton will keep its tail between its legs, as any dog who has been beaten year on year will. until they finally realize you need experienced players to add direction and stability. or until their crop of top 5 picks hit their 2nd and 3rd contracts and get the hell out of that black hole."

So spending to the cap provides a window for winning? Really? Buffalo tried that a few years ago, how did that work out. Just cause you have the money, does not mean you have to spend it. I can honestly see the need for adding a few vets, which they have done...how about bringing Ryan Smyth back, a proven leader and top notch character guy. How about Bleanger, a respected hard working vet, even Darcy Hordinchuck fits the bill, a vet who gets every little bit out of his limited skill set, dispite the goon status. The Oilers did add vets, they just did not add vets with huge names who would require a long term investment.

The Oilers almost made the playoffs last year, right in the thick of the race until the final few weeks of the season. They are not promoting a losing attitude, they are patiently waiting until the kids, their core, mature enough to make a legit run....THEN, you add the vets who can throw you over the top...not before. Taylor Hall is a winner, same as RNH, same as Eberle. You're really oversimplifing that aspect of it....a few losing seasons will not turn these kids into losers. They hate to lose. When the time is right AND the defense is fixed (it's not a great group they have now on d) they will fix things, without making brutal veteran adds that will cost them the ability to resign the kids when they enter RFA and UFA status. They still have to figure out if Dubnyk is the goalie of the future also, until that is sorted out, they should be ultra conseritive.

[LegionOfDoom]

I would rather be in the Flyers camp, then in a rookie camp, that feels like an expansion team.

The Oilers feel like an expansion team.

The opposite of the pendulum are the Leafs.

I'm swinging in the middle.

We took a step to fix our offensive problems.

We NEED to address our Team D.

We need to shore up our Defensive problems

We need a backup goalie.

The silent killer was our 5 on 5.

The root of our losing ways was Team Defense.

Our achilles heel was our defense.

And the steak to our heart was our goaltending.

So far 2 out of 5 have been taken care of (O to the G)

Bonus round: Mason will help our defensive transition ala Hexy ala Brodeaur.

[fanaticV3.0]

well, I mean, $4.5mil cap hit for a 70 point center with years of experience, specifically experience with very young but highly talented linemates and teammates....I kinda think that sounds pretty ok.

He hasn't had 70 points in a season since 09-10 and his career average is 62 points a season, so you can cut that "70 point center" bullshit right now. If he was a 70 point center, I'd be happy with this move. If this was 4 years ago, I'd be happy with this move.I'm hoping a change of scenary reignites his career, because right now, $4+ mil is too much for his production level at this point in his career. Right now, this is nothing than a slightly cheaper Briere imo.

Edit: I'll be nice too. If he can score 60 points and do even some of the intangible things he did during their Cup run, I'd be thrilled with this move. I truly believe they need some veterans mixed in with the youth, so I'm not against signing guys over 30. I just don't want to sign them for too much when what they bring to the team isn't worth it.

Edited July 4, 2013 by fanaticV3.0

[aziz]

<br />He hasn't had 70 points in a season since 09-10 and his career average is 62 points a season, so you <br />

his career average is 68.88 points per 82 games. he's missed 8-18 games in the last three seasons, but in those scored at a pace of 68 points per 82 games in 10-11, 62 per 82 in 11-12, and 67 per 82 in 12-13. we can argue about what those kinds of projections mean, but when he is in uniform, he scores at the rate of a 68 point scorer. any given game, his production is at that level. so, I rounded up to 70, but I think you can bear with me on that, yes?

Right now, this is nothing than a slightly cheaper Briere imo

briere, on the other hand, has scored at a rate of 57 points per 82 games in 11-12, and 38 points per 82 in 12-13. so, if you think that is the same as lecavalier, then I guess he would be a slightly cheaper briere. I also think you'd be really off base.

[fanaticV3.0]

his career average is 68.88 points per 82 games. he's missed 8-18 games in the last three seasons, but in those scored at a pace of 68 points per 82 games in 10-11, 62 per 82 in 11-12, and 67 per 82 in 12-13. we can argue about what those kinds of projections mean, but when he is in uniform, he scores at the rate of a 68 point scorer. any given game, his production is at that level. so, I rounded up to 70, but I think you can bear with me on that, yes?

briere, on the other hand, has scored at a rate of 57 points per 82 games in 11-12, and 38 points per 82 in 12-13. so, if you think that is the same as lecavalier, then I guess he would be a slightly cheaper briere. I also think you'd be really off base.

Projected totals? Are you for real? Games and championships are won by facts, not what a bunch of maybes and what ifs. His average points pers season in 14 seasons is 62.4. Save that projected totals for philosophy class, because I'm only interested facts. I only like my alternate realities in science fiction, not sports.

[aziz]

<br />Projected totals? Are you for real? Games and championships are won by facts, not what a bunch of maybes and what ifs. His average points pers season in 14 seasons is 62.4.<br />

so, let me get this straight. you refuse to use projected totals that account for missed games, but will live and die by totals that don't account for anything at all. Crosby only scored 37 points in 11-12, and you think it most useful to judge his performance based on that naked fact, rather than account for the reality that he did so in only 22 games. is that correct?

me, I look at that and say, "damn, that projects to 137 points had he played a full season. that was monstrous production." you look at that and say, "damn, he wasn't even a 40 point scorer. what's all the hype about?" are you for real?

you know what is really fun here? Crosby himself hasn't broken 70 points since 09-10, the same season lecavalier last hit that mark. both continued to produce at a 68+ point pace, but both missed time and so haven't actually hit that overall production level. so...neither is a 70 point scorer anymore?

if you break a player's production down to a points per game basis, you can actually use it to figure what kind of impact he had in the games he played, and what kind of impact he is likely to have in future games. lecavalier has produced at a .80 points per game rate over the last three years. .84 points per game for his career. whether you want to project that over an 82 game season or not is your call. the bottom line, the most relevant fact (because that is what wins games and championship, as you say) is that he is still producing at that rate. any given game, .80 points. 4 points per 5 games.

[AJgoal]

Az, I'll admit I go back and forth on point production. On one hand, projecting can be worthwhile. On the other hand, there are reasons why a guy has to put up 37 points in 22 games. If a guy can't stay healthy, it's definitely fair to take that into account. I usually look at point per game production.

On the flip, yeah, Lecavalier's numbers are that low, when you factor in last season where they played just over half a regular season, and nobody hit 61 points. Also, when you add in his rookie year, when they had all of three double digit goal scorers, including Lecavalier, with Darcy frickin Tucker second on the team with 21. Take those two out, and he's almost to 68 points a season. Including his 37 point season a few years later.