Bill Meltzer's Blog Post Today - Sunday 11/30

[pilldoc]

Bill, in his blog post today, has categorically and succinctly put all of our complaints/issues and all of our topic threads in one tidy post.   

 

It is his version of the State of the Union address with this current Flyers team......  I post it below for all to examine.  I make no bones about, it is the solid putrid truth about this team.  Again, this not shocking as most of us, unless you have been hiding a rock, have know about this team for weeks and months.

 

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-Meltzer/Meltzers-Musings-State-of-the-Flyers-as-Team-Falls-to-Rangers-Again/45/64406

 

Here is the state of the 2014-15 Flyers: They are a one-line, one power play unit team that generates no supporting offense. The blueline is bottom heavy with plenty of viable fourth, fifth or sixth defensemen on a contender-caliber club but without bonafide top three players to anchor the unit. The team's issues on the blueline have been discussed to death ever since Chris Pronger's career came to an abrupt end and got worse when the unit lost longtime leader Kimmo Timonen as a steadying influence.

Now for something truly scary: Outside of the top line, the Flyer forwards are actually a bigger problem for the team than the defense right now. At least the majority of the Flyers defensemen have core competencies and reliably put forth a competitive effort. (I will agree to a point.  This is an AHL defense, and as has been mentioned in another thread...they are playing out of position and are set up to fail)

Beyond Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds in the first five games of the season and Brayden Schenn in the majority of recent games, the Flyers forward corps has been putrid. It's bad enough that they aren't scoring and most of their scoring chances either end up getting blocked or missing the net. The rest of the game is lackluster, too.

Back pressure is inconsistent. Forechecking pressure is sometimes non-existent. Too many of the Flyers have been neither physical nor fleet. Add it all together and you have a mess.

For all the talk this summer about improved conditioning and a team-wide focus on the small details of the game, this Flyers team is prone to slow starts, bad third periods in winnable games and losing the small battles. Those issues were very much in evidence again yesterday in failed clears, 50-50 pucks that the Rangers almost away claimed and in communication lapses. (So who is holding these players accountable...certainly not Berube.)

Watch the way the Rangers execute breakouts against the Flyers. Time after time, they do it with ease (and have for each of the last three seasons under both John Tortorella and Alain Vigneault). The Flyers dump in the puck without generating any speed. The Rangers' defensemen make quicl retrievals. There is almost always an unmarked winger along the boards with no Flyers forwards in sight. As a result, it is easy to make a short-range pass that catches a winger in stride. The Rangers then fly through the neutral zone with speed, forcing the Flyers defensemen to back in for a clean entry into the Flyers zone. (This was an issue last year and it just proves how bad out defense corps really is)

Where is the back pressure? There is none. On the occasions when the Rangers do have to flip the puck into the corners, they get their forecheckers in quickly. The Flyers get stationary and it becomes a major chore simply to clear the puck out of the zone much less generate a counterattack. These types of shifts get cloned again and again.

Craig Berube takes a lot of heat for his handling of personnel but I'm not sure what he could be doing better with the current group. He can only work with the players that Ron Hextall and predecessor Paul Holmgren provided him. With Vincent Lecavalier and R.J. Umberger looking like they are prematurely finished as effective NHL players, (we have 9 mill invested in these 2 stiffs.  Essentially Bill is saying in a nice way that they are useless to this team)  Matt Read's game having inexplicably fallen apart and Sean Couturier not progressing offensively, I'm sure where else he can turn.

Twenty three games into the season, it is no laughing matter than low-scoring defensive defenseman Nicklas Grossmann actually has produced more goals (two) and points (five) than Umberger. It's not amusing that offensive defenseman Mark Streit's four goals match the combined goal output of Lecavalier and Read. It's worrisome that Couturier is pointless in his last seven games and has all of one goal and two assists since Oct. 22.

 

.............. 

 

The Flyers goaltending, for the most part, has not been a big problem this season. Mason overall has kept the team in games in which they haven't deserved to be close. He's been excellent in November. Ray Emery had a real nice stretch in October

With that said, it's been awhile since Emery had a high-quality start and Steve Mason has had a few more lapses in games than he did in the first few months of last season. Neither goalie was
more than average in the home-and-home with the Rangers this weekend.

Emery had a pedestrian game yesterday. The Jesper Fast goal and the third period wraparound goal were not very well played. However, the Flyers as a team didn't deserve to win the game.

That has been the case far too frequently this season. Things won't magically get better, nor is there some latter day LeClair-and-Desjardins acquisition to be made. What's out there to be had in trade are the latter day Gilbert Dionnes at forward and end-of-the-line Jaroslav Modrys on defense.

At least on paper, the Flyers should be good enough to be a bubble team in the Eastern Conference. They have obvious flaws but so does most of the conference. There have been a few games against good teams this season where the Flyers have elevated their game to a higher level in stretches.

It is easy to forget now that the current Flyers team has most of the same players -- except the traded Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen due to his health concerns -- that they did last year. It's basically the same group that at, one point, successively thumped the Penguins twice in a home-and-home sweep, beat Chicago, defeated Dallas (despite a dominant game by the Stars' top line), downed St. Louis and then put up a hell of a fight to tie a game in the third period against Los Angeles before losing by one goal. It's basically the same team that pushed the Rangers to seven games in the playoffs.

The biggest difference: No one outside of the team's top two forwards has produced with any consistency this season. Meanwhile, Umberger (as likable as he is of a person off the ice) has been basically a dead-wood acquisition thus far to add to Lecavalier playing like dead wood, Read regressing and Couturier not progressing. They are not even playing all that great on the defensive side of the puck.

So what is a coach to do right now? (despite the calling of Berube to be fired, there is no other viable candidate out there.  Yes he has no system, but as someone posted, even Scotty Bowman wouldn't be able to coach this group) He can't play Giroux and Voracek 30 minutes a night. So where else are the quality minutes supposed to come when the team's second and third line caliber players are playing horribly and the fourth line of late has been barely viable even in that capacity. Things would look a lot different -- and better -- if at least a few other players picked up the pace even moderately.

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Bottom line...this team is terrible and there are no signs of any improvement in the near/immediate future.  I say ride the rest of the season out.  Bench players as needed to and then, if able to, start dropping the dead wood and hope for a top 5 pick in the 2015 draft.  Let Hexy start to purge this roster as needed and be prepared we might go through this again next season.

[doom88]

I've been saying that about the forwards for years. I'm glad I'm not the only one that sees them play 1/3 of the ice at most.

[idahophilly]

For the first time in a long time we have reasonably good goal tending and may have a 100+ point player and another in the 90's. And we still will probably miss the playoffs. Go figure.

 

We have to buy out RJ and VLC even if we have to eat half their salary on the cap. It would roughly be equal to dumping one of them completely and free up some major space. Plus, we just wouldn't have to watch them anymore. Besides, I'm not sure we could even get a pick for them right now. No GM is gonna touch those two albatrosses with a ten foot pole.

 

No matter what though, this won't even get close to changing the team situation until the players, as a group, finally really get mad. They have to want it. They don't right now. And I could care a less about the little sound bites from the players. They have to hit bottom and get mad. They are not there yet.

[ruxpin]

It is easy to forget now that the current Flyers team has most of the same players -- except the traded Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen due to his health concerns -- that they did last year. It's basically the same group that at, one point, successively thumped the Penguins twice in a home-and-home sweep, beat Chicago, defeated Dallas (despite a dominant game by the Stars' top line), downed St. Louis and then put up a hell of a fight to tie a game in the third period against Los Angeles before losing by one goal. It's basically the same team that pushed the Rangers to seven games in the playoffs.

 

I agree with most of the blog and @pilldoc's ad lib.  But I take issue with the above.  "Most of the same players" is true enough.  But it's NOT basically the same team that pushed the Rangers because of the two huge gaping exceptions he notes.  I was not a huge fan of Hartnell.  I never was.  But the truth is that without those two players, the Flyers are a leaderless mess among the players.  This is not an invitation to discuss the merits or drawbacks of Giroux's captaincy.  But there is now a glaring void of veteran leadership.  Aside from a complete lack of skill outside of 2-5 players (depending upon your criteria and not counting goal), the team is completely rudderless at this point with no veteran leadership to help steer the way.  When/if the team gets down on itself there is virtually no one there to say "been there before.  Let's roll."  No one. 

 

So, I'm sorry, but this is not the same team, basically or otherwise.  It's not even a team.  It's a collection of mismatch pieces sitting in a locker room at the same time.

[Vincent05]

@idahophilly

Buying them out is the last resort. I would try to trade or give them away while retaining maybe 3 mil in salary on each guy. That way it doesn't hurt us long term on the cap hit. We aren't going anywhere the next few years while rebuilding and can have young players take their roster spots. Any playoff team will be looking for vet presence on their 3rd or 4th line, I think they would bite on it if they just pay 1.5 mil in salary for the remainder of the term.

Maybe do that for Grossman as well as he only has another year left, retain maybe 1 mil? As for MacD, we are stuck with his ass for the long term. Trade Coburn now before his value farther diminish.

[pilldoc]

@idahophilly

. I would try to trade or give them away while retaining maybe 3 mil in salary on each guy. That way it doesn't hurt us long term on the cap hit. We aren't going anywhere the next few years while rebuilding and can have young players take their roster spots. Any playoff team will be looking for vet presence on their 3rd or 4th line, I think they would bite on it if they just pay 1.5 mil in salary for the remainder of the term.

Maybe do that for Grossman as well as he only has another year left, retain maybe 1 mil? As for MacD, we are stuck with his ass for the long term. Trade Coburn now before his value farther diminish.

 

I seriously don't know any GM that would want Corpseberger.  He has become as useless as a one legged cat trying to bury a turd on a frozen lake.  With that being said Vinny LeCADIEVERlet might be able to be dangled to a desperate GM whose club is the playoff hunt.  Shiite I would just give him away if possible.  Again..I don't hate VLC, I hate his contract and right now he is being moved all around trying to find a fit for him.  Vinny was never a fit for ths team, but Homer went out and signed him anyway. 

 

Oh why for the love of god Homer...why???? 

[pilldoc]

I agree with most of the blog and @pilldoc's ad lib.  But I take issue with the above.  "Most of the same players" is true enough.  But it's NOT basically the same team that pushed the Rangers because of the two huge gaping exceptions he notes.  I was not a huge fan of Hartnell.  I never was.  But the truth is that without those two players, the Flyers are a leaderless mess among the players.  This is not an invitation to discuss the merits or drawbacks of Giroux's captaincy.  But there is now a glaring void of veteran leadership.  Aside from a complete lack of skill outside of 2-5 players (depending upon your criteria and not counting goal), the team is completely rudderless at this point with no veteran leadership to help steer the way.  When/if the team gets down on itself there is virtually no one there to say "been there before.  Let's roll."  No one. 

 

So, I'm sorry, but this is not the same team, basically or otherwise.  It's not even a team.  It's a collection of mismatch pieces sitting in a locker room at the same time.

 

well said Rux.... nothing here to argue.   Sadly quality veterns just don't grow on trees.  I wasn't even thinking along these lines when I first read the article.  There are so many deficiencies to this team, where does one even begin to start the rebuilding process?

[Vincent05]

 

Oh why for the love of god Homer...why???? 

I don't blame Homer for signing VLC, I blame Snider. How many times have we seen the Flyers sign has been over the hill former All-Stars. It goes back to the Clarke days as GM. I do blame Homer for signing them to a ridiculous long contract that other GMs would not have.

[OccamsRazor]

well said Rux.... nothing here to argue.   Sadly quality veterns just don't grow on trees.  I wasn't even thinking along these lines when I first read the article.  There are so many deficiencies to this team, where does one even begin to start the rebuilding process?

 

 

It's a downward spiral that i see not ending for awhile......till the players look in the mirror and decide there is reinforcements coming it's on  them.....

[pilldoc]

I don't blame Homer for signing VLC, I blame Snider. How many times have we seen the Flyers sign has been over the hill former All-Stars. It goes back to the Clarke days as GM. I do blame Homer for signing them to a ridiculous long contract that other GMs would not have.

 

I disagree.  Homer might have been under marching orders from Snider, but surely Homer had to realize LVC had no real place on this team.  After all he is getting paid to make hockey disicions.  He should have had the balls to stand up to him instead of being a "yes" man.  Snider wanted LVC simply to put butts in the seats.\

 

Agree the contract is all on Homer, but then again, LVC should not have even been in the equation for this team.

[OccamsRazor]

Agree the contract is all on Homer, but then again, LVC should not have even been in the equation for this team

 

A good read on Corsi...

 

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/08/01/why-corsi-numbers-get-it-wrong-with-some-players/

 

Corsi does have its strength. It corrects one of the major problems of the NHL’s official plus-minus system, the lack of sample size that comes with goals plus-minus. Corsi does so by tracking not goals, but shots-at-net, a far more common event in a game than goals. This greatly increases Corsi’s sample size and its accuracy. At the same time, however, Corsi fails to fix the other other major problem with official plus-minus, the high percentage of false positive and negatives handed out in on-ice plus-minus systems.

 

Let’s say a player is out on the ice for 30 shots at net for in a game and 20 shots at net against. The player is a defensive defenceman and he only helped to create 5 of those shots at net, while he made mistakes that led to 15 shots at net against. His real impact on the game is -10 Corsi, but the mechanical system now being used would give him a +10 Corsi plus-minus. He got that positive mark only because he was on the ice with better players who created a positive but unearned differential for him. This same dynamic can happen game after game, month after month, giving a player an unfair and inaccurate Corsi rating over a full season.

 

A good player playing consistently with bad players will get hammered by Corsi, while a good player playing with great ones will get a boost. 

This is a massive flaw in the way Corsi is generally used right now, but not fatal to the Corsi concept itself, which might one day be coupled with intensive video analysis to provide a superior plus-minus metric.

 

HHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[B21]

I seriously don't know any GM that would want Corpseberger.  He has become as useless as a one legged cat trying to bury a turd on a frozen lake.  With that being said Vinny LeCADIEVERlet might be able to be dangled to a desperate GM whose club is the playoff hunt.  Shiite I would just give him away if possible.  Again..I don't hate VLC, I hate his contract and right now he is being moved all around trying to find a fit for him.  Vinny was never a fit for ths team, but Homer went out and signed him anyway. 

 

Oh why for the love of god Homer...why????  

 

Here's a measuring stick for a VLC trade:  Alexei Kovalev, Circa 2011.

 

A 38 year old and rapidly declining declined Kovalev was traded to an injury-ravaged yet still contending Penguins team for a conditional 7th round pick.  With no Crosby, Malkin and Staal (and missing 9 other regulars) the desparate Pens played the odds and figured why not take a chance and see if Kovalev had anything left in the tank. 

 

So if you can find a contending team with a smorgasborg of injuries who thinks VLC has a little majic left you might get a 7th rounder for him.

 

Actually, nevermind.  Kovalev was UFA after 2011. VLC has 3 more years at $4.5 million per.

 

Sorry. You guy are f'd.

[OccamsRazor]

Sorry. You guy are f'd

 

Thanks for the conformation...................but we know. With him AND RJ...................thanks Homer for f uc king them one more time then bailing....and getting a promotion got to love it...thinking to himself "Lets see Hexy get out of this!"

[brelic]

If you can block out all the noise from media and fans, the two biggest impediments to making this roster better over the next year are VLC and MacDonald, and both because of their contracts and level of play.

 

Clearing those two would remove 9 years of obligation and $9.5M per season for players who don't add anywhere near that value. But more importantly, it would provide somewhat of a blank slate for Hextall to take advantage of opportunities and start to remake the roster in his image.

 

To me, those are Hextall's most important priorities before we can truly move forward.

 

Right now you could remove MacDonald and the defense would not look any different. In fact this team played better without him. So if you can find a way to move him for picks, you do it. He must have some value to someone - but probably not until the deadline. Even then, teams are probably reluctant to pick up a player with 5 more years committed. It will be a tough sell for sure. Our 2nd round pick this year will probably be top 5 in the 2nd round, so the Islanders are probably laughing. If he can recoup a 2nd rounder, he should do it.

 

Same goes for VLC. You could scratch him right now, and the team would not play any differently - perhaps even better. His 5:56 of TOI contribute nothing to the team. I think he's easier to move than MacDonald because he'll have 3 years after this one and is slightly cheaper.

 

Do those two things, and it's already WAY better. Other problems, like Umberger, can be dealt with either by buy out or you could stick him on the 4th. One anchor is better than two, and we might simply be stuck with him for 2 years.

[pilldoc]

 

Sorry. You guy are f'd.

 

Thanks b21! we appreciate your vote of confidence!

 

Yup...most of on here already knew that!

[murraycraven]

@idahophilly

Buying them out is the last resort. I would try to trade or give them away while retaining maybe 3 mil in salary on each guy. That way it doesn't hurt us long term on the cap hit. We aren't going anywhere the next few years while rebuilding and can have young players take their roster spots. Any playoff team will be looking for vet presence on their 3rd or 4th line, I think they would bite on it if they just pay 1.5 mil in salary for the remainder of the term.

Maybe do that for Grossman as well as he only has another year left, retain maybe 1 mil? As for MacD, we are stuck with his ass for the long term. Trade Coburn now before his value farther diminish.

.

By also said the other day that teams are not even willing to give a 5th round pick for either of these bums. It is not happening.

Buy them out and cut your losses... I rather the AHL kids come up and play instead of those two...

[murraycraven]

Here's a measuring stick for a VLC trade: Alexei Kovalev, Circa 2011.

A 38 year old and rapidly declining declined Kovalev was traded to an injury-ravaged yet still contending Penguins team for a conditional 7th round pick. With no Crosby, Malkin and Staal (and missing 9 other regulars) the desparate Pens played the odds and figured why not take a chance and see if Kovalev had anything left in the tank.

So if you can find a contending team with a smorgasborg of injuries who thinks VLC has a little majic left you might get a 7th rounder for him.

Actually, nevermind. Kovalev was UFA after 2011. VLC has 3 more years at $4.5 million per.

Sorry. You guy are f'd.

You are dead on... Stop pretending like teams are going to want VLC or RJ. T he had all season to move VLC and Noone wanted him meanwhile he has declined from last year...

[pilldoc]

If you can block out all the noise from media and fans, the two biggest impediments to making this roster better over the next year are VLC and MacDonald, and both because of their contracts and level of play.

 

Clearing those two would remove 9 years of obligation and $9.5M per season for players who don't add anywhere near that value. But more importantly, it would provide somewhat of a blank slate for Hextall to take advantage of opportunities and start to remake the roster in his image.

 

To me, those are Hextall's most important priorities before we can truly move forward.

 

Right now you could remove MacDonald and the defense would not look any different. In fact this team played better without him. So if you can find a way to move him for picks, you do it. He must have some value to someone - but probably not until the deadline. Even then, teams are probably reluctant to pick up a player with 5 more years committed. It will be a tough sell for sure. Our 2nd round pick this year will probably be top 5 in the 2nd round, so the Islanders are probably laughing. If he can recoup a 2nd rounder, he should do it.

 

Same goes for VLC. You could scratch him right now, and the team would not play any differently - perhaps even better. His 5:56 of TOI contribute nothing to the team. I think he's easier to move than MacDonald because he'll have 3 years after this one and is slightly cheaper.

 

Do those two things, and it's already WAY better. Other problems, like Umberger, can be dealt with either by buy out or you could stick him on the 4th. One anchor is better than two, and we might simply be stuck with him for 2 years.

 

agree Brel...matter of fact most of us were bemoaning the fact that had VLC had to be put back into the line-up once he came back from being injured.  He "really was not missed" when he was out with his injury.  Most of us were saying Vinny who??  I think the best course of action is to stand pat and wait til the trade deadline and see what (if anything ) can be done to move VLC.  Agree, Crapburger can be buried on 4th line with 5 min of TOI.

[brelic]

By also said the other day that teams are not even willing to give a 5th round pick for either of these bums. It is not happening.

 

Who said this?

[murraycraven]

Who said this?

BM

[pilldoc]

You are dead on... Stop pretending like teams are going to want VLC or RJ. T he had all season to move VLC and Noone wanted him meanwhile he has declined from last year...

 

This ^^^^.  If Hexy could not move VLC during this past summer...what make anyone think there will be a sudden splash of interest come trade deadlione.  As far as Corpseberger...just buy him out now.......

[Vincent05]

Sorry. You guy are f'd.

I wouldn't say that, it helps put us in a much needed rebuild and hopefully a high draft pick to get a impact player.

[murraycraven]

I wouldn't say that, it helps put us in a much needed rebuild and hopefully a high draft pick to get a impact player.

Truth right there... If we get a top 5 pick it is not all gloom and doom

[Vincent05]

This ^^^^.  If Hexy could not move VLC during this past summer...what make anyone think there will be a sudden splash of interest come trade deadlione.  As far as Corpseberger...just buy him out now.......

I am pretty sure if Hextall retain most of his salary, there could be takers. No one in their right mind would take the full contract except Homer if he was still GM and that was what Hextall was trying to do.

[jackhole]

Uggghh!  I keep forgetting that we gave up a 2nd for AMac.....We threw in a third too, didn't we.  And then I forget his contract too.  I still can't fathom 6 years....I'll give him 5 tops.  It seems my brain will not allow me to acknowledge all these factors at once, its too much.....Its just too damn much to behold!

 

 Does Tonya Harding live near Philly??  Anybody know?