Zero Confidence In Holmgren

[Podein25]

3 minutes ago, King Knut said:

If you know the movie Moneyball, there's that moment at the end when Jonah Hill's character talks about the minor leaguer who hit the home run and didn't even know it and how Billy Beane just hit a home run as a GM and he doesn't even know it yet...

 

Well Homer is the pitcher who keeps having Home Runs hit off of him and he doesn't even know it yet. 

 

I love that movie so much. I don't mind the analogy.

[King Knut]

1 minute ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Yeah and we don't know that he DID try to find one. Why do you assume he DID!?!

 

It's a good point, but I tend to believe he did for two reasons:

 

The first is because he went and got one during the previous season and while Mrazek ended up being a complete disaster - which... how does one get to the NHL playing net like that anyway?-  at least we know Hextall recognized the problem and maneuvered to address it while giving up as little as possible.  He went and got a goalie.

 

The second reason is because Hextall actually went and got a goalie before THIS season started.  Granted it was a few hours before the season started and the guy couldn't play until a few games into the season, but he went and got one and once again, got the guy who required giving up as little as possible (in this case absolutely nothing).

 

Its from these two things that I deduce that it's likely (though clearly not a given) that he was making attempts all summer to get goalies (there were no good UFA options BTW) but was unwilling to give up much of anything in the way of picks or prospects... and thus he could not pull off a deal.  

 

We do know from reports that Hextall tried to get in on Tavares (who we now know wasn't really talking to anyone besides Toronto) and Karlsson (whose GM we now know refused to trade him to any team in the East).  

 

It's possible Hextall waited until the season started and said, "Oh man, I guess maybe Elliott and Neuvy aren't quite ready afterall" and THEN decided to search the waiver wire... but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt based on his track record in this department.  

 

I believe whoever he talked to just wanted more than Hextall was willing to give up and after listening to Homer in this press conference just now, I believe that's why he got fired... because he didn't want to give up on his prospects and trade them away for magic beans in the form of old ass over the hill players on big fat cap eating contracts... which based on HIS TRACK RECORD is entirely Homer's M.O. 

 

 

 

 

[King Knut]

5 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

I love that movie so much. I don't mind the analogy.

 

I hated saying, "Jonah Hill's charater" but that person didn't really exist in the real world (at least not as a single person) so I kinda had to.

[Podein25]

32 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

I hated saying, "Jonah Hill's charater" but that person didn't really exist in the real world (at least not as a single person) so I kinda had to.

 

Understood. Have you read the book? Worth it. Michael Lewis is a fantastic writer.

[King Knut]

1 minute ago, Podein25 said:

 

Understood. Have you read the book? Worth it. Michael Lewis is a fantastic writer.

 

Yeah, totally love Michael Lewis.  

[Podein25]

6 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

Yeah, totally love Michael Lewis.  

 

The movie is so good, I've seen it over a dozen times. And I rarely watch movies more than once. Among the many great scenes is this one. It'as some of Brad Pitt's best work IMHO.

 

 

 

Back to regularly-scheduled whining and bitchiing

[OccamsRazor]

 

Now we know what truly started the ball rolling.

 

He became available.

 

They discussed it and then said Hexy you need to open up the coaching stop which i'm sure Ron said no go f**k yourselves i'm running this show...

 

...which Homer replied "Oh yeah you say we'll guess what now you can let the door hit you in the ass then and i will go out an do this...

[King Knut]

18 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

The movie is so good, I've seen it over a dozen times. And I rarely watch movies more than once. Among the many great scenes is this one. It'as some of Brad Pitt's best work IMHO.

 

 

 

Back to regularly-scheduled whining and bitchiing

 

Agreed.  Underrated Sorkin-ness.  Sorkin without overly Sorkin.  And I agree on Pitt.  I forget who won best Actor that year, but I remember thinking Pitt's performance was really being under-appreciated.  

 

And I can totally relate to the way the character can't watch the games.  I get that way sometimes and I'm not even responsible for anything!

 

In fact, I wish I could be working out during every game.  That's the safest way for me to watch, haha.

[King Knut]

10 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Now we know what truly started the ball rolling.

 

He became available.

 

They discussed it and then said Hexy you need to open up the coaching stop which i'm sure Ron said no go f**k yourselves i'm running this show...

 

...which Homer replied "Oh yeah you say we'll guess what now you can let the door hit you in the ass then and i will go out an do this...

 

 

My guess is that it probably sounded more like this: 

 

"Ron, you need to start making moves.  The goalies suck and Quennville is available."

 

"Now Paul... remember how we talked about this?  You can't go off half cocked and start making dumb trades and firing people."

 

"You giving me lip Hexy?  I remember Carter once gave me lip... look what happened to him!  Richards didn't like that very much so he gave me some lip... look how that turned out for him!  The next year, Laviolette was all whiney about how I'd traded away his core and how was he supposed to win... look how well that worked out for him! You want to join them Hexy?"

 

"It worked out pretty well for all of them Paul and our team is still recovering from the mess you got us..."

 

"Shut up Ron.  You're fired.  I'm tired of your lip."

 

"Sure thing Paul. Good luck, dumb ass."  

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

The second reason is because Hextall actually went and got a goalie before THIS season started.

 

He had to Neuvy and Lyon were hurt and Stolie hadn't played much and then you had 20 year old Hart.

 

He could have claimed Halak for free when the Isles waived him and then waived Neuvy and that would have been an improvement.

 

But he stood pat. And that is what got him canned.

[Podein25]

Just now, King Knut said:

 

 

My guess is that it probably sounded more like this: 

 

"Ron, you need to start making moves.  The goalies suck and Quennville is available."

 

"Now Paul... remember how we talked about this?  You can't go off half cocked and start making dumb trades and firing people."

 

"You giving me lip Hexy?  I remember Carter once gave me lip... look what happened to him!  Richards didn't like that very much so he gave me some lip... look how that turned out for him!  The next year, Laviolette was all whiney about how I'd traded away his core and how was he supposed to win... look how well that worked out for him! You want to join them Hexy?"

 

"It worked out pretty well for all of them Paul and our team is still recovering from the mess you got us..."

 

"Shut up Ron.  You're fired.  I'm tired of your lip."

 

"Sure thing Paul. Good luck, dumb ass."  

 

Ok, someone with more talent than I has to do something with "lip,"  and Carter, he of the "frosted tip" and Richards and his "trip" across the border with unprescribed Oxy.  Make it happen! What's rux doing? Twiddling his thumbs at work no doubt. 

[OccamsRazor]

7 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

 

My guess is that it probably sounded more like this: 

 

"Ron, you need to start making moves.  The goalies suck and Quennville is available."

 

"Now Paul... remember how we talked about this?  You can't go off half cocked and start making dumb trades and firing people."

 

"You giving me lip Hexy?  I remember Carter once gave me lip... look what happened to him!  Richards didn't like that very much so he gave me some lip... look how that turned out for him!  The next year, Laviolette was all whiney about how I'd traded away his core and how was he supposed to win... look how well that worked out for him! You want to join them Hexy?"

 

"It worked out pretty well for all of them Paul and our team is still recovering from the mess you got us..."

 

"Shut up Ron.  You're fired.  I'm tired of your lip."

 

"Sure thing Paul. Good luck, dumb ass."  

 

Very well could be sounds like Homer.

 

Ron gave him a hell of a hand to deal from now....assets galore!!

 

And they have 4 days to work out something for Nylander...scares the bee jezus out of me...

[FD19372]

I don't know about all of you, but this period of time with Holmgren as de facto GM scares the hell out of me...like a trading Carter Hart for an Ilya Kovalchuk hell out of me.

[brelic]

39 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Now we know what truly started the ball rolling.

 

He became available.

 

They discussed it and then said Hexy you need to open up the coaching stop which i'm sure Ron said no go f**k yourselves i'm running this show...

 

...which Homer replied "Oh yeah you say we'll guess what now you can let the door hit you in the ass then and i will go out an do this...

 

I mean, I can understand Hextall having that position if things were going well for the team, and they were showing multi-year uptick. But that wasn't the case.

 

They are near the bottom in almost every major statistical category. And you have a chance to add a future HOF coach.

 

That was a big misread on Hextall's part. 

 

I respect Ron for sticking to his principles and his plan. That's what he promised from the beginning, and this shows he is a man of integrity.

 

Unfortunately for him, that cost him his job. 

 

[Podein25]

2 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

I don't know about all of you, but this period of time with Holmgren as de facto GM scares the hell out of me...like a trading Carter Hart for an Ilya Kovalchuk hell out of me.

 

Yeah, as I said in another thread it's not the unknowns that really scare me, it's the knowns. 

[OccamsRazor]

2 minutes ago, brelic said:

But that wasn't the case.

 

Yes and it was as most of expected to take the next step in progression upwards.

 

And it didn't.

 

And his two biggest mistakes bit him in the ass....keeping Lappy and the PK continued the downward spiral.

 

And not going out and getting another goalie to play behind Elliott. I can see him letting Elliott play out his last year of his deal.

 

Fine.

 

But he had to go and find a plan B in case there were issues with Elliott who was coming off surgery.

 

And by this i do not include Neuvy as a plan B. 

 

With no hate for him just strictly business point of view Neuvy should have been bought out or even waived and buried and another option found and no even Pickard is not a good enough backup option.

 

He didn't and we see the results of the M.A.S.H. unit in goal.

[brelic]

I can't keep track of what's been posted and what hasn't, so here you go... 

 

 

 

Say goodbye to a 2nd rounder and roster player or prospect.

[OccamsRazor]

16 minutes ago, brelic said:

Unfortunately for him, that cost him his job. 

 

In a nutshell sums it all up...and i agree...

 

 

...you have to balance it all, draft, free agency, staff and cap management...if it were easy everyone would have a Cup.

 

It's not. I hope the next guy can get it done he will come into a good situation that just needs a few tweaks i think.

[murraycraven]

From where I stand I think there was more to Hextall not being able to be flexible.   Through and through Hextall did a great job (potentially) at drafting and did a fantastic job getting out of the cap issues that were left by Homer.   While reading through HockeyBuzz I kind of put a lot of faith into what Bill Meltzer is stating.   It sounds as though Hextall was not an easy guy to deal with and was very much behind closed doors as he was to the media - course and it was his way or nothing else.  

 

From all the reports it looks like the Flyers are looking outside the organization.  That could mean they bring an ex-Flyer back or they go in a completely different direction.  None of us will know until the new GM is named.   

 

I am still on the side of the fence that Hextall's firing was justified.   While he did some great things this Team has been stuck in neutral for far too long.   THIS was the year that we were supposed to see the "next step" and Hextall publicly stated as much.  For all the good things everything seemed to go off the rails this year:

 

• Goaltending:   Another year of Elliott and Neuvy was negligible at best.  How anyone can put faith in Neuvy to stay healthy is beyond reasoning.   Elliott has never been a workhorse and was coming off a bad injury that was still an issue at the beginning of camp.  Lyon is an AHL tweener, Stolarz is coming off a bad injury and is a bit of an unknown.  Then Hextall claims Pickard who hasn't exactly had a stellar career.  Sorry, but this was gross mismanagement and that is not even taking into account Neuvy's extension.  
• 3C:  In year where we had funds to spend there should have been every effort to lock up this position.
• PK:  Hextall stated at the end of last year that he will address the PK and did nothing.  We have been plagued with a terrible PK and to stand pat is nonsensical.  
• Defense:  This team is in dire need of a veteran dman that can play minutes and is solid defensively.   Not McDud, not Folin and not Gudas.   
• Timeline:   let's be clear; Hextall's timeline has always been questionable - at least in my eyes.  The aging and very expensive core is not getting any younger and their production will be headed in the wrong direction  when the team is ready to compete.  Signing Jake to a ludicrous contract in a career & RFA year was another unnecessary move at the time.
• Coaching:  While I am not fan of Hak you can't ignore the fact that Hextall never let him hire his own assistants.  Lappy should have been shown the door a long time ago but somehow he is still behind the bench.  Hak is just gonna Hak... and the new GM will bring in his own guy.

The team this year was poorly constructed and there was a huge risk in not trying to solve any of the above issues.  This year has not been a "step forward" nor has it been the proverbial stuck in neutral.  This team has take two steps back this year and their record, PP, and PK stats all prove this to be 100% true.

 

The positive:  I do think the next GM is coming into a very good situation.  There is talent and the pipeline, while only prospects at this point, seems to be in a great position.  If they make the correct decision regarding the GM and they tweak the roster this team can be competitive next year.  

 

Homer was the classic shoot yourself in the foot to get better GM.  Selling off younger players for tired and worn vets while throwing 2nd round picks around like McDud has been throwing popcorn in his mouth during recent games.   Hextall was the exact opposite and would not budge from his plan and by all accounts seems to be a bit of hard head.  I believe in today's NHL you need a happy medium.  It is not one approach vs the other approach and you have to be able to adapt.  Meltzer eluded to a strained relationship b/t Homer and Hextall b/c the latter would not budge or listen to anyone and appeared very shortsighted in terms of the on-ice product.

 

Am I nervous as a fan about what comes next?  Absolutely.  But at the end of the day none of us know what is going on behind closed doors and it appears this has been in the works longer than any of us thought.  Without sounding too optimistic I hope Homer learned some things and will treat this differently in terms of how the club approaches the draft, the cap and FA.   We will know in the near future but I don't see this move as being the end of the Flyers.   Changes were needed IMO...

 

Last - this is a business.   Under Hextall fans have become impatient while paying a lot of money to watch a dreadful product.  You can't tell me that the suits at Comcast did not see the stands half full and tix on StubHub for a fraction of the price.  When you have a fan throw their Flyers jersey on the ice it is an embarrassment to a once proud franchise.

 

Now, we either hire the right GM and move forward or Homer/Comcast take this thing to a total rebuild.  Right or wrong it is nice to know that management *wants* to do the right thing and win.   Will they win?  Who knows but they have some pieces that are there and a few moves could put this team over the edge and back to respectability.  

[mojo1917]

4 minutes ago, murraycraven said:

But at the end of the day none of us know what is going on behind closed doors and it appears this has been in the works longer than any of us thought. 

Really ? it seems that way to you ?

based upon what ?

I'm not trying to be a jerk here either. 

I know you didn't get this feeling from watching the presser, 'cause Heckle and Jeckle didn't say boo to a bee about anything of substance.

Has there really been that much "good stuff" on hockeybuzz about this ?

i don't have the warm fuzzies over what's going on. 

Based on that complete obfuscation of meaning we witnessed at 11am there was no thought about what comes next. 

This situation makes my belly hurt - and i have zero stake in it.

I want to be optimistic too, but Homer sounded like he doesn't have a clue and Scott sounded like every group vice president in charge of floccinaucinihilipilification I've ever dealt with in a lengthy career of corporate communicating.

ugh.

[King Knut]

26 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

He had to Neuvy and Lyon were hurt and Stolie hadn't played much and then you had 20 year old Hart.

 

He could have claimed Halak for free when the Isles waived him and then waived Neuvy and that would have been an improvement.

 

But he stood pat. And that is what got him canned.

 

Halak was waived two years ago.  Brian Elliott wasn't even on the team yet.  Halak was however a 33 year old (about a month or so younger than Elliott) free agent who now makes as much as Elliott and more than Neuvirth (which means Hextall would had to have paid him more).  If Hextall would have signed him, you'd be complaining about that.  

 

The guy who unloaded VLC and Luke Schenn for a pick and Jordan Weal...  the same guy who unloaded Chris Pronger's contract AND Nik Grossman for Sam Ganger and a pick.. the same guy who got a FIRST ROUND PICK for Brayden Coburn and picked up Konecny and Provo in the first round that year... that guy does not get fired for not adding an older, more expensive 6th goalie to his NHL roster.  

 

That makes zero sense and if you're telling me THAT is why Homer canned him, then Homer is even dumber and this move makes even less sense than I'm giving it credit for.  

 

Homer depleted the farm system, unloaded all the prospects, stuffed the cap full of over aged, slow crap players, fired an actually  good coach because he couldn't make orchids grow in the desert, pissed off every other GM in the league to the point that they wouldn't trade with him anymore and left the team in a cap hell that would take 8 years to resolve on it's own.  

 

Then Hextall fixed all of that, but you're telling me, Homer fired him because he didn't sign a 6th goalie (the third over 30 with injury history)?  

 

I was desperately hoping this was about the coach... and I guess it may still be about the coach in the end, but ultimately this was about Hextall not wanting to give up on his prospects and the mentality of not investing in the future in favor of washed up crap players is exactly what got the team into the mess it's just now pulling itself out of. 

 

Davd Scott says he wanted Hextall to spend to the cap. But there's absolutely no forward thinking in that mentality.  If you overspend on mediocre players in 2018 just to hit the cap and make yourself think you're improving the team, then you don't have any cap space in 2019 to get the actaully good players that are out there.  Or in 2020 when you need to resign your burgeoning young talent.

 

So What now?  They get a guy who will trade Sanheim for Nylander's rights and then sign Nylander to the 8 million he wants for God knows how long... maybe Nylander's worth it... but now instead of skating Folin or Mac, the flyers are skating Folin AND Mac every night and they're still out of position and still giving up 4 goals in the first period.

 

I'm mad at Hextall because if he'd have addressed the coaching issue or at least the PK in the off season, this probably isn't happening.

I"m NOT HAPPY with what Hextall didn't do.  He could have done more. Why not throw 3.5 million at a 31 year old Grabner and maybe help your PK? I'd have supported that this summer.  He had the room.  He'd just have to waive Lehtera or Weise (who has actually been the Weise we were promised so far this year).    

 

And it genuinely seems like if Hextall would have done ANYTHING, he'd still have the job right now.  So pease don't get me wrong.  I'm thrilled to blame Hextall for what he could have done better. Dealing with the coach in the off season or when Stevens / Quennville got fired would have TRULY been the way to go IMHO.  But here's the BIG FAT BUT:

 

BUT, despite not getting Grabner or Halak this off season, Hextall's moves and his approach to building the team has been FAR SUPERIOR to Homer's.  After 6 years of being in charge Homer's team was over the cap, loaded with dead space, had jettisoned actually good young talent in favor of old over the hill and injured talent, the team was getting worse and worse year to year, it had no prospects in the system and was so cap strapped none of this could improve for 5-8 damn years!

 

After 4+ years of Hextall that's all improved.  The team's record isn't good yet and their not winning more than they were when Hextall took over, BUT they have a future.  They can make moves.  They do have a TON of very strong talent in the system, much of which isn't even at the AHL level yet.  

 

People talk about Hextall taking over like it was the low point, but the fact of the matter is because of the cap and the contracts he had, the pendulum hadn't hit it's nadir yet.  It was still going down.  Now people are talking like the Pendulum has hit it's high point and that high point just isn't high enough.  But The pendulum is just barely starting to swing back up at all right now.  This isn't remotely how good it's going to get with this team.  

 

That's all due to Hextall's philosophy and his approach to team building.  

I wish to God he'd fired the coach.  Like you wouldn't believe.

 

But the long story short is that Homer is now back in charge of the team... he's picking the guy who will move forward from here, but he's also made it clear that he wants that guy to be willing to give up prospects and assets to try to win now.  In fact, the implication is that he wants that to happen immediately.  

 

This is a major problem.  I think Hakstol is not a good coach for this team.  And not firing him was Hextall's biggest mistake.  But Homer's POV lead to a great many much much larger mistakes and I really fear where things are going to go from here.  

 

But the good news is that if you enjoyed watching Justin Williams and Ruslan Fedotenko and Jeff Carter and Mike Richards and Denis Seidenberg and etc and etc win all those cups with all those OTHER teams, you're probably going to get your chance to watch Provo, Sanheim, Konecny, Myers and who knows who else do exactly the same thing in the years to come.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[King Knut]

25 minutes ago, brelic said:

I can't keep track of what's been posted and what hasn't, so here you go... 

 

 

 

Say goodbye to a 2nd rounder and roster player or prospect.

 

My Money is on Crawford for one of our other goalie prospects, Elliott and a 2nd rounder.  

[murraycraven]

5 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

Really ? it seems that way to you ?

based upon what ?

I'm not trying to be a jerk here either. 

I know you didn't get this feeling from watching the presser, 'cause Heckle and Jeckle didn't say boo to a bee about anything of substance.

Has there really been that much "good stuff" on hockeybuzz about this ?

i don't have the warm fuzzies over what's going on. 

Based on that complete obfuscation of meaning we witnessed at 11am there was no thought about what comes next. 

This situation makes my belly hurt - and i have zero stake in it.

I want to be optimistic too, but Homer sounded like he doesn't have a clue and Scott sounded like every group vice president in charge of floccinaucinihilipilification I've ever dealt with in a lengthy career of corporate communicating.

ugh.

 

 

yeesh...  chill out dude.

 

I am working and did not watch the presser.   And to be honest I never though Homer sounded prepared or smart in anything he did.   I never stated I had the "warm and fuzzies"...   Actually, if you reread the post I clearly stated that I was nervous about this.  Yet, I do think something needed to be changed.  Does it work out?  No clue.... did this year work out?  Absolutely not...

 

and the HB was about Meltzer... .not the morons commenting.  

[King Knut]

1 hour ago, Podein25 said:

 

Ok, someone with more talent than I has to do something with "lip,"  and Carter, he of the "frosted tip" and Richards and his "trip" across the border with unprescribed Oxy.  Make it happen! What's rux doing? Twiddling his thumbs at work no doubt. 

 

What rhymes with "Two Cups" ?

[King Knut]

52 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

I don't know about all of you, but this period of time with Holmgren as de facto GM scares the hell out of me...like a trading Carter Hart for an Ilya Kovalchuk hell out of me.

 

I bet it would be Hart and Simmonds for Ilya and Quick.  

 

And before you think maybe that sounds okay... please note that Quick has had about 35 more games than Neuvirth in the last three years and is under contract for 5 more years at almost 6 million per.