Sidney Crosby's future... with the Pens?

[terp]

You're one bell-ringing away from the end of your career and your contract is up after next season. Who's going to want to invest the big bucks in a long term deal with a snot-nosed punk who led his team to one of the most embarassing displays in the post-lockout era (and beyond) who is legitimately one big hit away from not playing any more?

Mirror time, Sid.

Given what you say and after this playoff performance, is it time for a change of scenery? If you're Pens management, you can make a case to yourself that he needs to go for any number of reasons, including we can't afford him, character issues, concussion issues and, above all, a potential return they could use to assemble better all around depth. Look at the team putting a beating on them: depth.

merged

Another poster pointed out elsewhere that his contract has one more year to run and his NMC kicks in July 1. After a first round elimination, Pens' management can probably justify moving him on several grounds, including concussion and character issues. But, barring a miracle that would negate what I'm about to say, the Pens have to face up to the fact that their two megastar system isn't working. They are getting beat by a young team with superior depth whose core is going to stand in their way of advancing for a while. If they want a different result, they need to do things differently. It is pretty clear they will need to assemble a deeper team if they want to get by the likes of the Flyers and the Bruins in the playoffs.

Imagine what they could do for their depth if Crosby were to be moved. They would generate a huge return as well as a ton of cap room. The only other similar alternative is to trade the 50 goal scoring Hart Trophy winner and set up man for James Neal. Not happening.

On the lighter side, I can imagine some GM's responding: "We aren't interested in Crosby but would you deal Malkin?"

Edited April 16, 2012 by radoran
Split from a topic in the Flyers forum.

[radoran]

Given what you say and after this playoff performance, is it time for a change of scenery? If you're Pens management, you can make a case to yourself that he needs to go for any number of reasons, including we can't afford him, character issues, concussion issues and, above all, a potential return they could use to assemble better all around depth. Look at the team putting a beating on them: depth.

I think he just made himself Richards/Crater expendable. He's on the books for $8.7M but will only be paid $7.5M and his NMC doesn't kick in until July 1.

Trade him to Columbus for Nash.

Actually, I totally see the Leafs being the suckers in this situation. Just, well, because they're the Leafs and that's what they do.

[terp]

I think he just made himself Richards/Crater expendable.

This deserves its own thread...

[JackStraw]

I think he just made himself Richards/Crater expendable. He's on the books for $8.7M but will only be paid $7.5M and his NMC doesn't kick in until July 1.

Trade him to Columbus for Nash.

Actually, I totally see the Leafs being the suckers in this situation. Just, well, because they're the Leafs and that's what they do.

What do the Leafs have that they could possibly offer in return for Crosby? I don't see Pitt trading Crosby. Malkin possibly.

[radoran]

What do the Leafs have that they could possibly offer in return for Crosby? I don't see Pitt trading Crosby. Malkin possibly.

Lupul, Schenn, some prospects and picks? Lupul's up after next season and an injury risk. Schenn is signed for longer so you get long term value. Prospects and Picks after that.

Right, though, probably won't happen. But I do think that he's removed the "untradeable" tag in Pittsburgh.

I mainly see the Leafs making the UFA run at Crosby when this deal is up.

[terp]

I posted this elsewhere but the admin created this thread so darn quick:

Another poster pointed out elsewhere that his contract has one more year to run and his NMC kicks in July 1. After a first round elimination, Pens' management can probably justify moving him on several grounds, including concussion and character issues. But, barring a miracle that would negate what I'm about to say, the Pens have to face up to the fact that their two megastar system isn't working. They are getting beat by a young team with superior depth whose core is going to stand in their way of advancing for a while. If they want a different result, they need to do things differently. It is pretty clear they will need to assemble a deeper team if they want to get by the likes of the Flyers and the Bruins in the playoffs.

Imagine what they could do for their depth if Crosby were to be moved. They would generate a huge return as well as a ton of cap room. The only other similar alternative is to trade the 50 goal scoring Hart Trophy winner and set up man for James Neal. Not happening.

On the lighter side, I can imagine some GM's responding: "We aren't interested in Crosby but would you deal Malkin?"

Barring him leading a playoff miracle, I see him getting moved this off season.

Edited April 16, 2012 by terp

[JackStraw]

Lupul, Schenn, some prospects and picks?

It would have to be a lot of prospects and picks. Whatever they gave up for Kessel, it would have to be a lot more for Crosby.

[radoran]

It would have to be a lot of prospects and picks. Whatever they gave up for Kessel, it would have to be a lot more for Crosby.

Except that he has one year left on his deal and the clock it ticking on his head.

He doesn't, believe it or not, have the value (IMO) that Kessel did.

No one saw the Richards/Crater deals coming, either. Stranger things have happened.

[Clarke2Leach]

If I were the Jets, I would ask about Malkin. The Jets have some good blueline depth, good draft picks, prospects and a lot of cap room. I hate Malkin, but the Jets could really use a #1 like him.

[JackStraw]

Stranger things have happened

I heard that a sheep once gave Podein25 a seductive look and Pods just walked on by, but I don't believe it.

Edited April 16, 2012 by JackStraw

[BearOnIce]

Given what you say and after this playoff performance, is it time for a change of scenery? If you're Pens management, you can make a case to yourself that he needs to go for any number of reasons, including we can't afford him, character issues, concussion issues and, above all, a potential return they could use to assemble better all around depth. Look at the team putting a beating on them: depth.

Another poster pointed out elsewhere that his contract has one more year to run and his NMC kicks in July 1. After a first round elimination, Pens' management can probably justify moving him on several grounds, including concussion and character issues. But, barring a miracle that would negate what I'm about to say, the Pens have to face up to the fact that their two megastar system isn't working. They are getting beat by a young team with superior depth whose core is going to stand in their way of advancing for a while. If they want a different result, they need to do things differently. It is pretty clear they will need to assemble a deeper team if they want to get by the likes of the Flyers and the Bruins in the playoffs.

Imagine what they could do for their depth if Crosby were to be moved. They would generate a huge return as well as a ton of cap room. The only other similar alternative is to trade the 50 goal scoring Hart Trophy winner and set up man for James Neal. Not happening.

On the lighter side, I can imagine some GM's responding: "We aren't interested in Crosby but would you deal Malkin?"

If he makes it out of Philadelphia tonight. There is a bounty on his head according to some reports. Players sharpening their sticks for the decap. I expect scenes out of Slapshot tonight.

[flyercanuck]

@radoran

Picture the leafs without Lupul, Schenn and their top prospects.....LMAO!!!!

[flyercanuck]

@Clarke2Leach

The Jets have Scheifele coming. They also have Ivan Telegin coming from our same junior team. he may not be Malkin, but this kid is electrifying.

These two guys have been magic for the Colts all year. They're going to be great for the jets.

[Vanflyer]

@JackStraw

"Whatever they gave up for Kessel, it would have to be a lot more for Crosby."

I think we can all agree that Toronto significantly overpaid for Kessel.

The best scenario I could see is Crosby going to Nashville for Weber. That would be a boon for both teas. Nashville has (as usual) a barn full of upcoming d prospects.

[B21]

@terp

Given what you say and after this playoff performance, is it time for a change of scenery? If you're Pens management, you can make a case to yourself that he needs to go for any number of reasons, including we can't afford him, character issues, concussion issues and, above all, a potential return they could use to assemble better all around depth. Look at the team putting a beating on them: depth.

Another poster pointed out elsewhere that his contract has one more year to run and his NMC kicks in July 1. After a first round elimination, Pens' management can probably justify moving him on several grounds, including concussion and character issues. But, barring a miracle that would negate what I'm about to say, the Pens have to face up to the fact that their two megastar system isn't working. They are getting beat by a young team with superior depth whose core is going to stand in their way of advancing for a while. If they want a different result, they need to do things differently. It is pretty clear they will need to assemble a deeper team if they want to get by the likes of the Flyers and the Bruins in the playoffs.

Imagine what they could do for their depth if Crosby were to be moved. They would generate a huge return as well as a ton of cap room. The only other similar alternative is to trade the 50 goal scoring Hart Trophy winner and set up man for James Neal. Not happening.

On the lighter side, I can imagine some GM's responding: "We aren't interested in Crosby but would you deal Malkin?

NMC aside, I need to see one more season "as is" before I start thinking trade. After a SCF appearance and a Cup, they were upset by Montreal and a red hot Halak in the Conference Semis. It happens. Wings lost (badly) in the Semis that year, too...and didn't blow anything up. The next year the Pens lose a 7-game series to the Lightning in Round 1 playing w/o Malkin or Crosby. Let's face it about this year...despite being down 3-0 this is a Conference Finals match-up being played in the first round. Two of the top SIX teams based on regular season points. While not ideal, the two mega start system can work. It's worked before. I can't argue for a Richards/Carter like trade yet. Now if we are having this same discussion this time next year...

Edited April 18, 2012 by B21

[JackStraw]

@B21 - hypothetically speaking, if it did reach that point who do you think they would trade, Malkin or Crosby? And who would you rather they trade?

[terp]

Now if we are having this same discussion this time next year...

At the outset I think it is important to repeat this board's long time maxim: trade him now...his value will never be higher!

I get why you would want to wait but the NMC matters. If you allow him to pick his team, his value goes down, perhaps by a lot. He will always have some say on where he goes but dealing him now maximizes the Pens leverage and return. Just for laughs, I'll lay out my case for this again:

* The Pens are paying both Malkin and Crosby $8.7MM. Staal's and Crosby's contracts come up after next season and Staal is due a raise. They have to choose which two to keep. Staal plays a different role and is less expensive, so it is kind of down to Crosby and Malkin. Both would generate a big return. While Crosby may be better than Malkin, he's had concussion issues, a factor that concerns me a lot. I also like Malkin's size and meanness. Also, I think the Pens would be better off with a different leader but you don't have to agree with that point to agree that it makes some sense to very quietly shop him in the Western Conference.

* As a hypothetical to emphasize my point, I say the Pens would be a better team by a lot if they were to swap Crosby straight up for Shea Weber. They would still have Malkin, Staal and Neal up front but would have a 30 minute a night, Norris caliber defenseman in the line up. I'm not sure this is in the cards as a trade option but it illustrates the point that the Pens would be a better rounded, more consistent team with a more diverse array of skills. By the way, I think this kind of presence would do a lot to settle down Fluery. As it stands now, the Pens don't really have a #1 defenseman. Letang is a fine player but he'd be way more effective as a #2. If say the Pens could deal Crosby for a true #1 defenseman, a top six winger with scoring ability and a high pick, prospect or so, I say that improves the Pens and makes them a lot more difficult to play. You also generate some addition by subtraction by changing team leadership and settling on crystal clear role for Malkin.

You may be where we were last year: desperately in need of a change but not fully aware of it yet. The Flyers got deeper, more consistent and ultimately better by dealing two very good players. Given the fact that Crosby's NMC is about to burn off, I think they would be nuts not to investigate what might be out there in return for Crosby.

[B21]

@B21 - hypothetically speaking, if it did reach that point who do you think they would trade, Malkin or Crosby? And who would you rather they trade?

No easy answer. If Crosby didn't have the concussion issues (and I had to trade one) it would be Malkin. I think you see next year's team return pretty much in tact. Sullivan and Asham are the only regulars that are UFA's. The rest of the "core" are UFA's at the end of 2013-14 or 2015-15.

I think next season's results will dictate what happens. Does Crosby stay healthy? Does Malkin have another MVP-type season? Does Staal maintain his success?

[B21]

@terp

<< I get why you would want to wait but the NMC matters. If you allow him to pick his team, his value goes down, perhaps by a lot. He will always have some say on where he goes but dealing him now maximizes the Pens leverage and return. Just for laughs, I'll lay out my case for this again: >>

All good points. I have to disagree on the impact of the NMC. Even if Crosby gave the Pens a list of 10 teams he would not want to be traded to, he is still...Crosby. For a player of that talent, I don't think you need that many teams in play to get fair value in return. How many teams were involved in the Gretzky trade? And look what he fetched from the Kings.

<< * The Pens are paying both Malkin and Crosby $8.7MM. Staal's and Crosby's contracts come up after next season and Staal is due a raise. They have to choose which two to keep. Staal plays a different role and is less expensive, so it is kind of down to Crosby and Malkin. Both would generate a big return. While Crosby may be better than Malkin, he's had concussion issues, a factor that concerns me a lot. I also like Malkin's size and meanness. Also, I think the Pens would be better off with a different leader but you don't have to agree with that point to agree that it makes some sense to very quietly shop him in the Western Conference. >>

A lot depends on how big of a raise Staal gets. The Pens have more than proven that players will take less than market value to play here. Staal is at $4MM. Can they keep him for $5MM if the deal is long enough? I think so. Dupuis and Cooke also come off the books that same year. $3.3MM total. Any idea if where the cap will be?

<< As a hypothetical to emphasize my point, I say the Pens would be a better team by a lot if they were to swap Crosby straight up for Shea Weber. They would still have Malkin, Staal and Neal up front but would have a 30 minute a night, Norris caliber defenseman in the line up. I'm not sure this is in the cards as a trade option but it illustrates the point that the Pens would be a better rounded, more consistent team with a more diverse array of skills. By the way, I think this kind of presence would do a lot to settle down Fluery. As it stands now, the Pens don't really have a #1 defenseman. Letang is a fine player but he'd be way more effective as a #2. If say the Pens could deal Crosby for a true #1 defenseman, a top six winger with scoring ability and a high pick, prospect or so, I say that improves the Pens and makes them a lot more difficult to play. You also generate some addition by subtraction by changing team leadership and settling on crystal clear role for Malkin. >>

Depending on how next year goes, I might sign up for that...Weber, top 6 forward, #1 pick and a top prospect.

I still need to give it 1 more year.

[terp]

Depending on how next year goes, I might sign up for that...Weber, top 6 forward, #1 pick and a top prospect.

I think this is a little rich. If the Preds were to move Weber, I think they might trade him, a top prospect and something else for Crosby.

If I were the Shero, I would be looking around the Western Conference for trading partners with top defensemen...Chicago? I can't see that happening somehow. In fact, if the deal is predicated on getting a #1 out of the Western Conference, I'm not sure where the Pens go to make that deal. Keith Yandle? He would be an excellent addition to the Pens' blue line but they would have to give more and I'm not sure they have enough to give. That is a franchise that could really use Crosby's marquee value. Would SJ give up Brent Burns, Logan Couture and what have you for Crosby? Doesn't seem like their style but who knows. Or maybe the Pens could target Ryan Suter and move Crosby for forward depth and prospects, picks. If I were Shero, I would also worry about another concussion.

[Vanflyer]

@B21

With or without the NMC, I would think that whomever wants to trade for him will want to the right to speak and negotiate with him upfront to layout a basic framework for his next contract. Nobody is going to give a boatload of assets- even for the best player in the league, when said player is a) one hit away from retirement and B) an UFA at the end of next season.

[B21]

I think this is a little rich. If the Preds were to move Weber, I think they might trade him, a top prospect and something else for Crosby.

If I were the Shero, I would be looking around the Western Conference for trading partners with top defensemen...Chicago? I can't see that happening somehow. In fact, if the deal is predicated on getting a #1 out of the Western Conference, I'm not sure where the Pens go to make that deal. Keith Yandle? He would be an excellent addition to the Pens' blue line but they would have to give more and I'm not sure they have enough to give. That is a franchise that could really use Crosby's marquee value. Would SJ give up Brent Burns, Logan Couture and what have you for Crosby? Doesn't seem like their style but who knows. Or maybe the Pens could target Ryan Suter and move Crosby for forward depth and prospects, picks. If I were Shero, I would also worry about another concussion.

Really? Not sure I agree...it's almost impossible to find deals to equate his value to...so here goes!

A 34 year old Pronger fetched two 1sts, a 3rd and two good prospects (one panned out and one didn't but we need to look at where they were when the deal was made...

Hossa..as a rental...fetched two 1sts (actual pick + the Pens 1st round pick from the most recent draft) and two role players (Armstrong and Christiansen). Pens also got Dupuis...at the time, an afterthought.

Crosby's concussions present a big risk but so does trading for a 34 year old player, too...not as much but still.

Based on those, I think some version of that Weber deal is more than fair.

I agree...the West would definitely be a preference. D "would" be ideal but they have Depres ready to step up next year and Joe Morrow probably the year after. If Crosby were ever dealt, as much as I'd love Weber, I'd prefer more depth/scoring at forward.

[B21]

@B21

With or without the NMC, I would think that whomever wants to trade for him will want to the right to speak and negotiate with him upfront to layout a basic framework for his next contract. Nobody is going to give a boatload of assets- even for the best player in the league, when said player is a) one hit away from retirement and B) an UFA at the end of next season.

Agree 110%. That would have to be a part of any deal.

[terp]

Really? Not sure I agree...it's almost impossible to find deals to equate his value to...so here goes!

I'm not sure what he would command in other deals but Weber is probably the best defenseman in the league and he hasn't turned 27. I don't know that Nashville would trade Weber for anyone but if they were to trade him for Crosby, the Pens would get someone or something in addition to Weber..but it wouldn't be a whole lot more.

[Polaris922]

I honestly don't think you will see this happening. They actually structured Crosby and Malkin's deals to keep them both happy here, and both agreed to take "less than market value" to stay. As for defensemen, I believe Letang is a great D'man, and until recently, was very happy with Michalek and Orpik behind him. Letang is small, but his skating skills and positional play make him a great defenseman in my book. I honestly think Bylsma's "system" is part of what broke the Pens this year. He refused to make changes to the penalty kill against the Flyers and that meant leaving a broken machine on the ice.

If anyone has to go, I hope it's Jordan Staal. I think he's one of the most overrated Pens out there. This season his defensive play was average at best, and in the first three games of the playoffs was on the ice, in position, and still failed to stop no less than FIVE Flyers goals. One of which he actually pushed onto Talbot's stick like they were still on the same team. His `point production is okay, but all the hype about him being a number one center anywhere else in the league is crap in my eyes. He's almosty as lazy as Malkin gets at times, and without the point production.

That being said I think the Pens had a lot of depth this year. They had a lot of weapons to bring to the rink. The problem is, they peaked two weeks before the end of the season, and then Fleury decided to fall apart in everything but games 4 & 5 of the series. You can say the Flyers got into their heads and made them run around like idiots, you can say the Flyers just outplayed them, but on top of any credit you give the Flyers (which they do deserve), the Pens didn't play up to the way they'd closed out the season. They maybe had too much ego going in, or felt entitled.. I dunno... but they clearly weren't themselves.