How long does Laviolette have?

[radoran]

I get what you are saying and agree with the 'braintrust' assessment but even a blind man can see Lavy has so little to work with. Then on top of that a short season.

Again, I know we can list off 5 panic moves in the past 5 years but getting rid of Lavy would top them all.

Just don't be shocked when Terry Murray has to find the room in Philadelphia.

[jammer2]

@radoran The chances of Murray coaching in Philly this year are around 50/50 in my estimation. If they do fire Lavi, I'd bet the farm they promote Murray, this has Flyers "hiring within" written all over it.

[BearOnIce]

This has come up a few times in the past week.

Some have been saying that Lavy is on a short leash this season, even going as far as saying if they Flyers don't turn it around over the next 5 games he's gone.

Others have said it's not his fault that he has a 3rd & 4th line that has ONE nhl regular skating on it.

Still others have argued that it's his fault the team comes out consistently flat for the first 10 minutes of a game.

What say you?

The defense is the majority of the problem right now. Carle was an overwhelming loss and that is a GM issue, not coach. Lavy is doing the best he can. He will yell a bit tonight. He's not going anywhere.

[BearOnIce]

I get what you are saying and agree with the 'braintrust' assessment but even a blind man can see Lavy has so little to work with. Then on top of that a short season.

Again, I know we can list off 5 panic moves in the past 5 years but getting rid of Lavy would top them all.

Count me out if Lavy is out. That will speak volumes of Snider and his henchmen.

[radoran]

Count me out if Lavy is out. That will speak volumes of Snider and his henchmen.

The Flyers haven't had the same head coach for more than four seasons since Fred Shero.

True story.

[RonJeremy]

Lavvy wont last the season.....Doesnt anyone see the reason we hired Terry Murray? its certainly not to coach the Phantoms indefinitely, Murray has been in the NHL for 20 years why would he take a minor league job, Im sure he could have had ,at minimum an offer as an assistant in the NHL, why would he choose to ride buses in the AHL? He is here as an insurance policy, I can guarantee Homer told him that he is next in line. We will have trouble scoring this year , due to relying too much on young guys and by missing Carle and Jagr on the PP, and with Hartnell out for 2 months.... due to those factors, as well as the lack of offensive skill and lack of speed and creativity on the blueline, there is no way we can win playing an uptempo stlye. So Lavvy will be axed and Murray will be brought in since his stlye is now a better fit for our current team. We will become a more conservative team and try to use our size on defense to stay close and win the defensive battles.

[Digityman]

Lavvy wont last the season.....Doesnt anyone see the reason we hired Terry Murray? its certainly not to coach the Phantoms indefinitely, Murray has been in the NHL for 20 years why would he take a minor league job, Im sure he could have had ,at minimum an offer as an assistant in the NHL, why would he choose to ride buses in the AHL? He is here as an insurance policy, I can guarantee Homer told him that he is next in line. We will have trouble scoring this year , due to relying too much on young guys and by missing Carle and Jagr on the PP, and with Hartnell out for 2 months.... due to those factors, as well as the lack of offensive skill and lack of speed and creativity on the blueline, there is no way we can win playing an uptempo stlye. So Lavvy will be axed and Murray will be brought in since his stlye is now a better fit for our current team. We will become a more conservative team and try to use our size on defense to stay close and win the defensive battles.

I do remember thinking Murray looked pretty bored when I saw the Phantoms in December. I agree with you that Murray is next in line but I do think they give Lavy till Nov/Dec next year. Homer needs to give him just a couple more pieces this summer. Then it's do or die.

[radoran]

I do think they give Lavy till Nov/Dec next year.

Why? If it's "just a feeling" then, that's fine.

From where I sit, the place where the Flyers coach sits is built on rails. And those rails do very little else but get a healthy topping of grease on a regular basis.

Ed's been impatient to "win now" for the past 20 years. You know what they say about old dogs...

[Digityman]

@radoran

Even the old man can't expect this roster to have a legitimate chance at winning the cup this year. He's already figured out he has to make it to next June.

My point is that Lavy is a good coach. The players seem to like him. He's had pretty good success. (I personally like his style)

So I guess it's just a feeling then.....

[radoran]

@radoran

Even the old man can't expect this roster to have a legitimate chance at winning the cup this year. He's already figured out he has to make it to next June.

My point is that Lavy is a good coach. The players seem to like him. He's had pretty good success. (I personally like his style)

So I guess it's just a feeling then.....

To be clear, I'm not *advocating* for it. I like Lavi fine, although I have questions if "his system" can win in the postseason without a Conn Smythe goalie.

And this team has shown that this team is willing to jettison anyone at any time.

[Vanflyer]

I think with the current make up of this roster (built for speed) any other coach would have a real difficult time adjusting the system. Lavy wasn't exactly handed a competitive team (from a defensive standpoint).

With that in mind, I think no matter how the chips fall, Bryz will be bought out at the end of the season.

Somebody else will go first. When you are 24th in the league on the PP and 25th in the league on the PK- heads will roll. There are four things drastically noticeable thus far:

1) Should have paid Jagr the money.

2) Briere's absence.

3) Carle's absence.

4) The lack of a proper training camp / youngsters being pushed into roles they may not be ready for.

As a gm / owner, I would fire a coach for two three reasons only:

1) Team is unprepared.

2) Coach does not adapt to the skill of players he is given.

3) Team has tuned the coach out.

I think the team (players) really likes Lavy. He is stern, but supportive and smart. While his run and gun might not be the proper use because of the d (I am on the fence about it), I don't blame him for this. The PK and PP need to get corrected quickly.

[Vanflyer]

I feel like Minn allowed fewer SOG, which will significantly impact related stats.

including save pctg?

[Vanflyer]

How about - who is the best goalie at shoot-outs?

Right now, Bobs is (he has stopped 9 out of 10) in three games played.

[jackhole]

Right now, Bobs is (he has stopped 9 out of 10) in three games played.

I mean careerwise. We know bob wasn't that great at SOs.

[BearOnIce]

Franklin Lavy will be there for a long time. Another well timed, time out......

[BearOnIce]

Somebody else will go first. When you are 24th in the league on the PP and 25th in the league on the PK- heads will roll. There are four things drastically noticeable thus far:

1) Should have paid Jagr the money.

2) Briere's absence.

3) Carle's absence.

4) The lack of a proper training camp / youngsters being pushed into roles they may not be ready for.

As a gm / owner, I would fire a coach for two three reasons only:

1) Team is unprepared.

2) Coach does not adapt to the skill of players he is given.

3) Team has tuned the coach out.

I think the team (players) really likes Lavy. He is stern, but supportive and smart. While his run and gun might not be the proper use because of the d (I am on the fence about it), I don't blame him for this. The PK and PP need to get corrected quickly.

Exactly. Perfectly spoken by you.

[brelic]

Maybe the 'Yotes had a better system? Bryz is really fundamentally awful. For some reason, I feel like Minn allowed fewer SOG, which will significantly impact related stats.

Here's Bryzgalov's shots per game

2005-2006 - 21.51 shots per game (ANA)

2006-2007 - 22.44 shots per game (ANA)

2007-2008 - 26.28 shots per game (PHX)

2008-2009 - 27.8 shots per game (PHX)

2009-2010 - 26.15 shots per game (PHX)

2010-2011 - 28.77 shots per game (PHX)

2011-2012 - 23.94 shots per game (PHI)

Career average - 25.27

Phoenix average - 27.25

Backstrom's shots per game

2006-2007 - 23.29 shots per game

2007-2008 - 25.82 shots per game

2008-2009 - 26.76 shots per game

2009-2010 - 24.56 shots per game

2010-2011 - 28.11 shots per game

2011-2012 - 25.96 shots per game

Career average - 25.75

So in fact, Bryzgalov has a lower shots per game average over his career than Backstrom, but faced 2 extra shots per game as a Yote. Not sure how significant that is. It is the types of shot that are more important than the number of them.

[doom88]

Agreed, quality matters more. I certainly am biased against Bryz. He did make a good lateral move save in the Rangers game though, and it stood out as abnormal to me.

[Vanflyer]

We know bob wasn't that great at SOs.

Really? I did not know that. I am too lazy to look it up, but can you tell me what his stats are in SO's prior to this year?

[Vanflyer]

So in fact, Bryzgalov has a lower shots per game average over his career than Backstrom, but faced 2 extra shots per game as a Yote. Not sure how significant that is. It is the types of shot that are more important than the number of them.

Allot of work by you to look that up. Wouldn't save pctg have done equal justice in research (and easier to support your case)?

[Vanflyer]

Exactly. Perfectly spoken by you.

coming from you, thank you. I appreciate that.

[brelic]

Allot of work by you to look that up. Wouldn't save pctg have done equal justice in research (and easier to support your case)?

Really just took me 5 minutes.

No, save % would not have achieved the same thing. doom8's theory was that Backstrom faced fewer shots than Bryz, and that explained why Backstrom was the better goaltender.

Both goaltenders could have identical save %s, yet have a huge disparity in shots faced per game.

In any case, averages are not very good at understanding the variation in a player's statistics. For that we'd need much more complex equations (I think Corsi is one of them) to understand correlation between various factors. I've actually been working on such a formula that will predict team and single game outcomes based largely on a complex calculation of every player on that team. I should be done in about 10 years, lol!

[Vanflyer]

(I think Corsi is one of them)

Thanks for elaborating. I was too lazy to look at the context of the earlier thread. I am still on the fence about the CORSI factors- but your point is valid in that flat numbers do not accurately depict reality when assessing a players ability against another player. It would be interesting to see what arbitrators use.

[brelic]

Thanks for elaborating. I was too lazy to look at the context of the earlier thread. I am still on the fence about the CORSI factors- but your point is valid in that flat numbers do not accurately depict reality when assessing a players ability against another player. It would be interesting to see what arbitrators use.

I'm not sold on Corsi either, but I can't say I've done a ton of analysis using it. It's like a +/- rating that looks at the total number of shots directed at the opponents' net when you're on the ice versus the number directed at yours (5 on 5 play only). Since it is measuring ALL shots, that means missed shots and blocked shots have the same weight as goals. And it also doesn't look at all at SH or PP situations, which are key moments in a hockey game and can often decide the outcome.

I honestly don't think arbitrators get into heavy statistical analysis, because it would end up hurting their case as much as helping it. Statistics are a funny thing, and they only provide a basis for interpretation. Depending on who is doing that interpretation and who built the model, you may get very different results.

[Vanflyer]

Statistics are a funny thing, and they only provide a basis for interpretation. Depending on who is doing that interpretation and who built the model, you may get very different results.

Totally agree. At times I feel Lawyer-ish in how statistics can be manipulated to make your case (either in the positive or negative, depending on which side you are arguing). All that said, it is fun (at least for me- and perhaps Aziz) to use to manipulate and argument. Perhaps not so much for Kuato!