The Split "Homer's Use of Draft Picks" Thread

[Polaris922]

Just following along here, it really doesn't seem like there's been much return on those picks. I agree with those that would rather take that 20% chance of finding a noteworthy player. As @mojo1917 said if nothing else you're keeping youth and creating some organizational depth. A lot if the trades mentioned and the points in those guys' careers just weren't worth giving up the 20% chance. As the saying was mentioned you can't win if you don't play, and 20% is a better chance than many think. Guess its just a perspective of whether you value an aging NHL'er more than a chance of failure/success draft pick.

[flyercanuck]

@jammer2

 

 I can live with picking the odd Derek Mathers in the 7th round...but wasting 3rds on Gouldbourne and Klotz is as ridiculous as trading your 2nds every...single...year.

[doom88]

@doom88 Well, in my defense, I did state that the book is not out on MAB yet, but there is no mistaking his problem is mobility at the NHL level, injuries aside, that will tell the story if he sticks as a pro.

Marshall was never a good pick. The fact he had a cup of tea at the NHL level does not change that. He is buried in the Leafs depth

chart/system and will never, ever get another chance at the NHL. The guy could not skate worth a lick, he can be as mean and physical as he wants, the bottom line is at the NHL level, you *must* get from point A to point B in a respectable time frame. Marshall has never shown the ability to do this in a satisfactory manner, in juniors, the AHL or the pros.

Marshall was supposed to be a stay at home shutdown style defenseman. Just like the failed Ryan Parent experiment. Marshall just never got better from the day he was drafted. Maybe he believed his own hype? The brains and minor skating improvements never materialized. That said, right idea, poor development.

[aziz]

 Marshall was never a good pick. The fact he had a cup of tea at the NHL level does not change that. He is buried in the Leafs depth
chart/system and will never, ever get another chance at the NHL. The guy could not skate worth a lick, he can be as mean and physical as he wants, the bottom line is at the NHL level, you *must* get from point A to point B in a respectable time frame. Marshall has never shown the ability to do this in a satisfactory manner, in juniors, the AHL or the pros.

 

truth be told, i don't remember his cup of coffee with the flyers, so i don't have any first hand anything on him.  it is interesting, though, that hockeysfuture's scouting report went so far as to say, "He skates very well, has excellent balance and moves the puck efficiently."  and he did put up respectable numbers in junior.  it looks like, as @doom88 said, he had the markings of a decent 2nd round pick, but never developed past what he was at the time of his eligibility.  which brings me back to my original point:  anything outside of the true standout prospects are a complete crapshoot.  you target what you want and hope the kid can grow into it.  thing is, you are looking at 17 and 18 yearold children and trying to project what they are going to be once they are done growing, done maturing, done being kids.  an almost impossible thing to do with any regularity.  you get lucky sometimes, but usually, it's just wasting a saturday afternoon once every june.

[DaGreatGazoo]

I posted this in the shoutbox the other day. They traded up to take Kevin Marshall---ahead of PK Subban.

[aziz]

@DaGreatGazoo

 

and why not?  subban was a complete zero defensively before the draft.  to the point where he was an NHL question mark because he was so terrible --and more to the point, didn't care that he was so terrible-- in his own end.  think brian mccabe, but smaller.  marshall, on the other hand, had just put up a +34 season, and even managed 32 points.

 

subban is still bad defensively, though he has somehow been convinced he needs to at least try to play defense.  back then, no way would you or i want the flyers to even think about a player like that.  

[OccamsRazor]

 I can live with picking the odd Derek Mathers in the 7th round...but wasting 3rds on Gouldbourne and Klotz is as ridiculous as trading your 2nds every...single...year.

 

I was actually reading something thinking Homer could possibly redeem himself a little with the Bob trade a BIG IF!!!

 

If Leier actually turns out a stud, then after further reading this and knowing and even just mentioned about Ghoul being a wasted picked the other day and they past on Bjorkstrand...

 

"Leier's been in a pretty good situation for a while now. His team in Portland is one of the best in all of Canadian junior hockey (they were WHL Champions last year, and are currently on a 14-0-1 streak). At any given time he's usually on the ice with at least one or two other guys who are quality prospects for other NHL teams. Two of the guy's he's spent a lot of ice time with this year -- .forwards Nicolas Petan and Oliver Bjorkstrand, both drafted this past June -- are first and third, respectively, in points in the entire WHL "

 

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/flyers-top-25-under-25/2014/2/14/5403350/philadelphia-flyers-midterm-top-25-under-25-taylor-leier-portland-winterhawks

 

How and they hell do you not draft him for a goon!??!?!?!?!

 

Either way a good read on Leier though.

Edited February 15, 2014 by OccamsRazor

[jammer2]

@aziz  I'm shocked to see that Marshall was deemed a good skater by hockeyfutures. One of the very worst scouting reports on any player...ever. Every single thing I ever read on Marshall pre and post draft questioned his ability to skate, and it certainly turned out to be true. He was every bit as slow as Brad Marsh. That's just horrible that somebody would write that.

[jammer2]

@DaGreatGazoo

 

and why not?  subban was a complete zero defensively before the draft.  to the point where he was an NHL question mark because he was so terrible --and more to the point, didn't care that he was so terrible-- in his own end.  think brian mccabe, but smaller.  marshall, on the other hand, had just put up a +34 season, and even managed 32 points.

 

subban is still bad defensively, though he has somehow been convinced he needs to at least try to play defense.  back then, no way would you or i want the flyers to even think about a player like that.  

 

  Gotta disagree with that post. I was fortunate enough to see both Paul Coffey and P.K Subban play at Windsor Arena. In his draft year and the years following, P.K was every bit as electric as Coffey was. I'd say they were both in the same range speed wise, with Coffey getting a bit of an edge. Mind you, Windsor Arena was very small, and they didn't have a lot of room to manuver....but P.K would go on rush's that literally made your jaw drop...it was mind boggling how much speed he could muster in the small confines of our tiny arena. He instantly reminded me of Coffey. His defense had to be piss pour to have him last till the second round, but sometimes you just have put something like that aside, he can work on that.....you can't work on being a better skater if you are brutal to begin with. A player can only marginally improve horrid skating. I call it lead in boot disease, and there is no cure.

 

  His questionable defense aside, you NEVER pass up an all world skater like that for a guy with very questionable skating skills like Marshall....NEVER. That is a miss of monumental porportions. When P.K was playing in the 09 World Juniors, I told everyone that would listen he would win the Norris someday. If I could see it, NHL scouts should damn well see it. It only makes my point more valid, if Homer has a weakness in his drafting, it's trying to draft a physical player with questionable skating ability. Being a strong skater should be a pre-requesite, if there is even a hint a player is weak at that skill, pass.

 

  I don't know how many Montreal games you watch, but P.K puts 100% effort into defense present day. Does he make unwise decisions, yes...for sure, but the effort is there....stunning even. He plays like demon possessed in his own zone. So, he has done a 360 since he has come into the league in terms of defensive effort. Quite often, he outhustles everyone else on the ice. In his own end, he plays with unbridled passion, a disticnt sense of desperation to acquire the puck.....and that is the truth.

[RonJeremy]

@jammer2, I agree with you... Subban has size, skating ability and a huge shot, how do you pass on him for a guy like Marshall, no shot, no skating ability, zero offensive upside... I willll tell you how, old time Flyers mentality...drafting grit and leadership qualities over pure skill. The Flyers management still doesn't grasp the fact that  the 70's are long over

[doom88]

Jammer, you're reaching. That would imply you want Mike Green, and there's no way.

Defenseman need to play defense. Look at the hate for guys like Carle and Streit. Subban is still worse. Skating is important, especially in the modern era of the NHL, but it's not the only discriminator.

Guys like Lindstrom and Neidermayer were great because they had both, but those who can't play defense should play wing. Again, see Mike Green.

[flyercanuck]

@doom88

 

 Subban, with all his faults, is way better than Mike Green.

[doom88]

@doom88

Subban, with all his faults, is way better than Mike Green.

True, but he's the go-to scapegoat lol. I lump them in the same category, acknowledging Subban is a little better when both are healthy.

[jammer2]

@jammer2, I agree with you... Subban has size, skating ability and a huge shot, how do you pass on him for a guy like Marshall, no shot, no skating ability, zero offensive upside... I willll tell you how, old time Flyers mentality...drafting grit and leadership qualities over pure skill. The Flyers management still doesn't grasp the fact that  the 70's are long over

 

 Well said, that was the point I was trying to make!  You just summed it up better than I could.

[aziz]

His defense had to be piss pour to have him last till the second round, but sometimes you just have put something like that aside, he can work on that.....

 

and i gotta disagree with you there.  the problem was that subban didn't want to work on that, and you never put something like that aside.  it was only in the last year or so that he realized he had to at least try to play the other side of the puck.  back then, it wasn't something he had any interest in at all.  truth be told, i'm not entirely sure i'd want him as a flyer even now after his change of defensive heart, and certainly not before.  a defenseman who is disinterested in playing defense is a bigger problem to me than one who isn't an offensive dynamo.

 

It only makes my point more valid, if Homer has a weakness in his drafting, it's trying to draft a physical player with questionable skating ability. Being a strong skater should be a pre-requesite, if there is even a hint a player is weak at that skill, pass.

 

this maybe is a good illustration of why these picks are such a crapshoot, even the scouting of the players is almost random.  the more i look into it, the more i find old scouting reports that are contrary to your evaluation of marshall's skating.  not to say that you are wrong, but when there is such a range of opinions...how does a GM really know?  hockey'sfuture said marshall was a great skater.  NHL central scouting said, "Has good balance and agility. Has a steady style and likes to keeps it simple. Moves the puck well."  ISS said, "He is truly a solid d-man who moves the puck well and rarely gets beat. He is a good skater who showed decent mobility."  presumably the flyers' own scouting were favorable about him.  but you say he was a specifically bad skater.  how does someone decide where the authoritative information is coming from?  'cause, i have to tell you, i take the defenseman who is described by ISS as, "always in good position and he doesn't get rattled. He's got good transition skills in that he can step up from backing out and make a very good pass," before i take an offensive dman who plays like backchecking is optional and distasteful, too.

[jammer2]

@doom88  I tell ya doomster, Subban is not even close to the player he was just a few years ago. He goes far beyond just competing in his own end, he battles like a man possessed. Watch any Habs game and you will see for yourself...Green....not even close. Quite often, he outhustles everyone on the ice, and is not only determned to gain puck possession, he is DESPERATE to achieve it.

[doom88]

Subban has improved, but he's still an offensive defenseman with issues in his own end.

[aziz]

@doom88  I tell ya doomster, Subban is not even close to the player he was just a few years ago. He goes far beyond just competing in his own end, he battles like a man possessed. Watch any Habs game and you will see for yourself...Green....not even close. Quite often, he outhustles everyone on the ice, and is not only determned to gain puck possession, he is DESPERATE to achieve it.

 

and this is all new.  post-new-contract.  which, oddly enough, is also pre-next-contract, as he is RFA again this summer.  someone somewhere finally got it through his head that he had to act like he was trying.  to his credit, he bought into it.  from a pre-draft point of view, though, there was no way to know that he would.  many many offensively gifted players never get anywhere because they never realize a rounded game is important.  all the more so, imo, with offensive defensemen.  it is a risk i can't even begin to blame flyers management for not wanting to take.

[jammer2]

@aziz  Maybe it's just me, but give me one of the top 5 skaters in the league, the best slap shot in the league, and I'll work with it. I'll admit his work ethic was questionable, but you gotta take those raw skills in the 2nd round and *hope* it was just immaturity.....which it was. He's so much better than any current Flyer, it's not even funny. He has still only shown the tip of what he can do, and his work ethic is simply amazing. He's on Team Canada at the Olympics and Marshall is *barely* holding on to his job at the baby Leafs....he will be out of hockey in 2 years.

[jammer2]

Subban has improved, but he's still an offensive defenseman with issues in his own end.

  True, but the compete level is there....and honestly, it's off the charts. He still makes some flashy selfish plays which hurt his team, but there is no lazy in his game, I can work with that.

[jammer2]

and this is all new.  post-new-contract.  which, oddly enough, is also pre-next-contract, as he is RFA again this summer.  someone somewhere finally got it through his head that he had to act like he was trying.  to his credit, he bought into it.  from a pre-draft point of view, though, there was no way to know that he would.  many many offensively gifted players never get anywhere because they never realize a rounded game is important.  all the more so, imo, with offensive defensemen.  it is a risk i can't even begin to blame flyers management for not wanting to take.

 

 When he wins his next Norris, I'm sure he will take note of this 

[doom88]

True, but the compete level is there....and honestly, it's off the charts. He still makes some flashy selfish plays which hurt his team, but there is no lazy in his game, I can work with that.

All well and good, but pre-draft, none of that was true. Marshall was the better pick at the time, and just did not pan out. It happens, a lot, in the NHL.

[doom88]

When he wins his next Norris, I'm sure he will take note of this

Sigh. Another farce. Remember when defenseman had to play defense to win that award?

[jammer2]

@doom88  I agree there, it was a farce. I'd take a guy like Lidstrom or Nieds any day of the week. It's digusting that the d-man with the most points wins this award. Duncan Kieth is 10x's more deserving.

[jammer2]

All well and good, but pre-draft, none of that was true. Marshall was the better pick at the time, and just did not pan out. It happens, a lot, in the NHL.

 

 I just can't buy in, hockeyfuture report notwithstanding, Marshall was always considered a risk because of his skating, I read it a hundred times before, during and after the draft. How you pass up the *obvious* skills of Subban for a slug who cannot skate is beyond me. Our scouts messed up large here. We will have to agree to disagree...lol.