ScottM Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 It's definitely no secret that the Panthers did very well with their number one overall pick last year. Ekblad had an outstanding season, and is a well-deserving Calder finalist. The last three number one picks, however, didn't fare so well in year number two. 2013 pick: Nathan MacKinnon Year one: 24 goals, 39 assists, 63 points in 82 games, +20Year two: 14 goals, 24 assists, 38 points in 64 games, -7 2012 pick: Nail Yakupov Year one: 17 goals, 14 assists, 31 points in 48 games, -4Year two: 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 points in 63 games, -33 2011 pick: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Year one: 18 goals, 34 assists, 52 points in 62 games, -2Year two: 4 goals, 20 assists, 24 points in 40 games, +3 So, there's been a three year span of major sophomore slumps. Before that (with the possible exception of Erik Johnson who never really panned out), there's a pretty good string of successful guys. Is Ekblad the guy that breaks the current streak? Why or why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Nathan MacKinnon is pretty straightforward, and I called it almost exactly one year ago:http://www.hockeyforums.net/index.php/topic/62295-nice-article-on-the-pros-and-cons-of-advanced-stats/?p=183011 Yakupov: another which was very easy to see: in 2013 he had a Shooting Percentage of 21%, and there was no way to believe that was repeatable. Like MacKinnon, he also had a GF% about 10 percentage points above his CF%. Again: unsustainable. Nugent-Hopkins: He did not suffer in this area. His main issue was that he needed to have his shoulder surgically repaired, and it took the Oilers 40 games to figure out that maybe they should shut him down. Tom Renney has given us a clue into their mindset, as he was fired for not dressing injured players, contrary to team orders, because the club was "selling hope": “I once lost a job because of my values,” Renney said. “In Edmonton, I was asked to give more playing time to more young players who’d had an operation to play. I reduced their playing time. But we had to play them, because they were really good and we were selling hope. But I acted according to my conscience.”http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/21/renney-says-he-was-fired-by-the-oilers-because-of-his-values/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishbulb Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 While a lot of rookies struggle to keep up their pace into their second year, I can't see Ekblad falling prey to this simply b/c of what has allowed him to succeed. It's not like he's going to suddenly going to lose his hockey IQ, or his sense of positioning, or his booming shot. The only thing that I see setting him back would be a major injury. I could see his offense slipping a bit, but as a defensemen, this won't be as devastating a setback as it was for Mackinnon, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 I tend to agree that he'll have a good season. @fishbulb I agree that a slip on offense wouldn't be quite as big of a deal. As long as he remains solid on defense, a small drop won't matter. I think Ekblad is something special. I think there's a rookie class this year that's special in general. We'll be hearing from some of these guys for a long time to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I tend to agree that he'll have a good season. @fishbulb I agree that a slip on offense wouldn't be quite as big of a deal. As long as he remains solid on defense, a small drop won't matter. I think Ekblad is something special. I think there's a rookie class this year that's special in general. We'll be hearing from some of these guys for a long time to come. Earlier on in the season we were discussing the Calder. Hockey IQ was one of the reasons I picked Ekblad, along with him being a teenager still. Most picked Forsberg, who's way older, and not even in the running anymore. Ekblads smarts should keep him moving forward I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Ekblad looks like a 10 year veteran out there. Nothing phases him. He's so in touch with his surroundings, it's uncanny. Gotta believe this guy gets his name on the Norris at some point. Of course, other guys can break into the equation, but in 3-4 years I believe Ekblad and Trouba will be trading the Norris back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Ekblad looks like a 10 year veteran out there. Nothing phases him. He's so in touch with his surroundings, it's uncanny. Gotta believe this guy gets his name on the Norris at some point. Of course, other guys can break into the equation, but in 3-4 years I believe Ekblad and Trouba will be trading the Norris back and forth. I don't know if I can remember a time when there were so many good young defensemen in the league (or soon to be in the league). Seth Jones will have something to say in those Norris competitions, as will OEL, Hedman, Subban, Karlsson, and Doughty. And who knows, maybe Sanheim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Podein25 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I don't know if I can remember a time when there were so many good young defensemen in the league (or soon to be in the league). Seth Jones will have something to say in those Norris competitions, as will OEL, Hedman, Subban, Karlsson, and Doughty. And who knows, maybe Sanheim? I'd add Trouba to that list. He's like a bigger, tougher version of Doughty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I'd add Trouba to that list. He's like a bigger, tougher version of Doughty. Completely agree, I just didn't mention him because jammer already did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Podein25 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Completely agree, I just didn't mention him because jammer already did. You know, I don't need your stupid help to embarrass myself, I can do that just fine all on my own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I don't know if I can remember a time when there were so many good young defensemen in the league (or soon to be in the league). Seth Jones will have something to say in those Norris competitions, as will OEL, Hedman, Subban, Karlsson, and Doughty. And who knows, maybe Sanheim? I think Nurse will get added to that list as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I think Nurse will get added to that list as well. Yup, and then we Hanifin, Werenski, and Provorov coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yave1964 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I do not believe that Ekblad will slip this year, no way no how. The Cats have a ton of young forwards who began to show signs of what they are capable of doing. If they step up, Ekblad will put up more points simply from playing with them. Personally I think that he will put up 55-60 points this coming year and begin to become the force that many predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Personally I think that he will put up 55-60 points this coming year and begin to become the force that many predicted. I agree, 55-60 sounds very reasonable for Ek, and quite realistic given the Panthers young offense that is on the rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 @jammer2 He scored more points in the NHL as an 18 year old than he did his first or second year in junior. That's something neither of the previous "exceptional status" guys were able to do. Of course Tavares scored 134 points as a 16 year old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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