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Aaron Ekblad and the Sophomore Slump


ScottM

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451348454-first-overall-pick-aaron-ekbla

 

It's definitely no secret that the Panthers did very well with their number one overall pick last year. Ekblad had an outstanding season, and is a well-deserving Calder finalist. The last three number one picks, however, didn't fare so well in year number two.

 

2013 pick: Nathan MacKinnon

 

Year one: 24 goals, 39 assists, 63 points in 82 games, +20

Year two: 14 goals, 24 assists, 38 points in 64 games, -7

 

2012 pick: Nail Yakupov

 

Year one: 17 goals, 14 assists, 31 points in 48 games, -4

Year two: 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 points in 63 games, -33

 

2011 pick: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

 

Year one: 18 goals, 34 assists, 52 points in 62 games, -2

Year two: 4 goals, 20 assists, 24 points in 40 games, +3

 

So, there's been a three year span of major sophomore slumps. Before that (with the possible exception of Erik Johnson who never really panned out), there's a pretty good string of successful guys. Is Ekblad the guy that breaks the current streak? Why or why not?

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Nathan MacKinnon is pretty straightforward, and I called it almost exactly one year ago:

http://www.hockeyforums.net/index.php/topic/62295-nice-article-on-the-pros-and-cons-of-advanced-stats/?p=183011

 

Yakupov: another which was very easy to see: in 2013 he had a Shooting Percentage of 21%, and there was no way to believe that was repeatable. Like MacKinnon, he also had a GF% about 10 percentage points above his CF%. Again: unsustainable.

 

Nugent-Hopkins: He did not suffer in this area. His main issue was that he needed to have his shoulder surgically repaired, and it took the Oilers 40 games to figure out that maybe they should shut him down. Tom Renney has given us a clue into their mindset, as he was fired for not dressing injured players, contrary to team orders, because the club was "selling hope":

 


“I once lost a job because of my values,” Renney said. “In Edmonton, I was asked to give more playing time to more young players who’d had an operation to play. I reduced their playing time. But we had to play them, because they were really good and we were selling hope. But I acted according to my conscience.”

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/21/renney-says-he-was-fired-by-the-oilers-because-of-his-values/

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While a lot of rookies struggle to keep up their pace into their second year, I can't see Ekblad falling prey to this simply b/c of what has allowed him to succeed.

 

It's not like he's going to suddenly going to lose his hockey IQ, or his sense of positioning, or his booming shot.

 

The only thing that I see setting him back would be a major injury.

 

I could see his offense slipping a bit, but as a defensemen, this won't be as devastating a setback as it was for Mackinnon, etc.

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I tend to agree that he'll have a good season. @fishbulb I agree that a slip on offense wouldn't be quite as big of a deal. As long as he remains solid on defense, a small drop won't matter.

 

I think Ekblad is something special. I think there's a rookie class this year that's special in general. We'll be hearing from some of these guys for a long time to come.

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I tend to agree that he'll have a good season. @fishbulb I agree that a slip on offense wouldn't be quite as big of a deal. As long as he remains solid on defense, a small drop won't matter.

 

I think Ekblad is something special. I think there's a rookie class this year that's special in general. We'll be hearing from some of these guys for a long time to come.

 

Earlier on in the season we were discussing the Calder. Hockey IQ was one of the reasons I picked Ekblad, along with him being a teenager still. Most picked Forsberg, who's way older, and not even in the running anymore. Ekblads smarts should keep him moving forward I would think.

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 Ekblad looks like a 10 year veteran out there. Nothing phases him. He's so in touch with his surroundings, it's uncanny. Gotta believe this guy gets his name on the Norris at some point. Of course, other guys can break into the equation, but in 3-4 years I believe Ekblad and Trouba will be trading the Norris back and forth.

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 Ekblad looks like a 10 year veteran out there. Nothing phases him. He's so in touch with his surroundings, it's uncanny. Gotta believe this guy gets his name on the Norris at some point. Of course, other guys can break into the equation, but in 3-4 years I believe Ekblad and Trouba will be trading the Norris back and forth.

 

I don't know if I can remember a time when there were so many good young defensemen in the league (or soon to be in the league). Seth Jones will have something to say in those Norris competitions, as will OEL, Hedman, Subban, Karlsson, and Doughty. And who knows, maybe Sanheim?  :thumbsu:

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I don't know if I can remember a time when there were so many good young defensemen in the league (or soon to be in the league). Seth Jones will have something to say in those Norris competitions, as will OEL, Hedman, Subban, Karlsson, and Doughty. And who knows, maybe Sanheim?

 

 

I'd add Trouba to that list. He's like a bigger, tougher version of Doughty. 

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Completely agree, I just didn't mention him because jammer already did.

 

 

 
You know, I don't need your stupid help to embarrass myself, I can do that just fine all on my own.
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I don't know if I can remember a time when there were so many good young defensemen in the league (or soon to be in the league). Seth Jones will have something to say in those Norris competitions, as will OEL, Hedman, Subban, Karlsson, and Doughty. And who knows, maybe Sanheim?  :thumbsu:

 

 

 I think Nurse will get added to that list as well.

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I do not believe that Ekblad will slip this year, no way no how. The Cats have a ton of young forwards who began to show signs of what they are capable of doing. If they step up, Ekblad will put up more points simply from playing with them.

 

  Personally I think that he will put up 55-60 points this coming year and begin to become the force that many predicted.

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Personally I think that he will put up 55-60 points this coming year and begin to become the force that many predicted.

  I agree, 55-60 sounds very reasonable for Ek, and quite realistic given the Panthers young offense that is on the rise.
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@jammer2

 

He scored more points in the NHL as an 18 year old than he did his first or second year in junior. That's something neither of the previous "exceptional status" guys were able to do. 

 

Of course Tavares scored 134 points as a 16 year old.

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