Why can't the Sabres surprise and sneak into a low seed?

[AJgoal]

ScottM is a Sens fan...

 

Who watched Lehner as part of his team for 5 seasons.

 

Also, nevermind the fact that many of the Flyers fans on this site watch other teams frequently besides when they play the Flyers. Some folks pay significant attention to junior and minor hockey.

 

The fact of the matter is that the Sabres have a significant hump to get over in order to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh got better. The Sens got better. Those were your two wild card teams. Boston is trending down, but Florida got better. Columbus is healthy. The Rangers, Tampa, and Montreal won't miss the playoffs. Detroit might have gotten a bit better, and just seems to find a way every year. Washington didn't get worse. The Islanders are trending up. That's 10 teams that finished better than Buffalo last year that are in position to finish with at least similar, if not better point totals than last year. I just don't see room for Buffalo. Much as I don't see room for Philly. Someone could always surprise, but you'd need significant floundering by a couple of those top teams, and Buffalo to play way over their heads. It's terribly unlikely. There's no reason not to be optimistic, Buffalo does have some good pieces going forward, but it's a stretch to think they'll make the tournament.

[ScottM]

Who watched Lehner as part of his team for 5 seasons.

 

Who was also very high on Lehner for a long time. Honestly, I loved the guy. I wanted the Sens to wrap him up long term. Last season made me realize it would have been a bad move. He's done nothing but go down for five years. You can only shove that off on things like injuries and limited playing time for so long. He finally just proved unable to capitalize on all of his potential.

[Buffalo Rick]

Who watched Lehner as part of his team for 5 seasons.

 

Also, nevermind the fact that many of the Flyers fans on this site watch other teams frequently besides when they play the Flyers. Some folks pay significant attention to junior and minor hockey.

 

The fact of the matter is that the Sabres have a significant hump to get over in order to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh got better. The Sens got better. Those were your two wild card teams. Boston is trending down, but Florida got better. Columbus is healthy. The Rangers, Tampa, and Montreal won't miss the playoffs. Detroit might have gotten a bit better, and just seems to find a way every year. Washington didn't get worse. The Islanders are trending up. That's 10 teams that finished better than Buffalo last year that are in position to finish with at least similar, if not better point totals than last year. I just don't see room for Buffalo. Much as I don't see room for Philly. Someone could always surprise, but you'd need significant floundering by a couple of those top teams, and Buffalo to play way over their heads. It's terribly unlikely. There's no reason not to be optimistic, Buffalo does have some good pieces going forward, but it's a stretch to think they'll make the tournament.

But it may be a stretch to assume Columbus is in?  This kid Eichel is going to be tremendous

[radoran]

But it may be a stretch to assume Columbus is in?

 

There are still nine teams ahead of Buffalo in AJ's analysis even without Columbus (o-o-o-o-o-or Philadelphia).

 

This kid Eichel is going to be tremendous

 

And everyone agrees that the Sabres are on the way up (finally).

 

Again, not impossible for it to happen this year - just very, very, very, very, very unlikely.

[Buffalo Rick]

There are still nine teams ahead of Buffalo in AJ's analysis even without Columbus (o-o-o-o-o-or Philadelphia).

 

 

 

 

And everyone agrees that the Sabres are on the way up (finally).

 

Again, not impossible for it to happen this year - just very, very, very, very, very unlikely.

This is assuming how accurate his analysis is?  I can see Boston and Detroit having less than stellar seasons.  Toronto is a joke and we will beat them out.  Florida never scared me.  Colombus could take a big step forward or a big step backwards?  Montreal?  I do not fear them at all.  Not sold on anyone in the East except for Tampa and the Rangers.  Ottawa and Washington should both be in.  But they are beatable.  Devils?  In transition.  Many mysteries.  So the Sabres could be more competitive than many give them a chance to be.  I know they are going to score way more goals.  How can they not with the likes of Eichel, Girgensons, Kane, Ennis (who had a monster pre season), Moulson, O'Reilly, McCain, Marcus Foligno, and even Gionta who can contibute.  Yes, I am optomistic unlike last year

[JR Ewing]

This is assuming how accurate his analysis is?  I can see Boston and Detroit having less than stellar seasons.  Toronto is a joke and we will beat them out.  Florida never scared me.  Colombus could take a big step forward or a big step backwards?  Montreal?  I do not fear them at all.  Not sold on anyone in the East except for Tampa and the Rangers.  Ottawa and Washington should both be in.  But they are beatable.  Devils?  In transition.  Many mysteries.  So the Sabres could be more competitive than many give them a chance to be.  I know they are going to score way more goals.  How can they not with the likes of Eichel, Girgensons, Kane, Ennis (who had a monster pre season), Moulson, O'Reilly, McCain, Marcus Foligno, and even Gionta who can contibute.  Yes, I am optomistic unlike last year

 

130 goals, HJ... Explain how they improved by 130 goals.

[ScottM]

But it may be a stretch to assume Columbus is in?  This kid Eichel is going to be tremendous

 

Columbus was arguably the best team in the league down the stretch. Ottawa got all the attention because of the playoff run, but Columbus was just as good if not better. The only reason Columbus suffered like they did early was the fact that injuries killed them. They'll be vastly better this year. They are a threat to win their division.

 

Eichel may very well be a great player, but we're not talking Gretzk/Lemieux. That's the kind of player you'd need to get the 130 goals that @JR Ewing is talking about. It's simply not going to happen without a miracle for the ages. They're going to be better. They may be much better, but one rookie isn't going to bring about one of the biggest turnarounds in NHL history. The Sabres have another year or two of building.

[radoran]

This is assuming how accurate his analysis is?

 

Sure, but you just mentioned Columbus.

 

I can see Boston and Detroit having less than stellar seasons. Toronto is a joke and we will beat them out. Florida never scared me. Colombus could take a big step forward or a big step backwards? Montreal? I do not fear them at all. Not sold on anyone in the East except for Tampa and the Rangers. Ottawa and Washington should both be in. But they are beatable. Devils? In transition.

 

The Devils? What do the Devils have to do with anything? They haven't made the playoffs in three years. Tronno? Seriously?

 

Montreal only has a Vezina-winning goalie and actually won the division two of the last three years and went to the Conference Final in the other.

 

Sabres will be better and, as has been said overandoverandover, could surprise some people. But getting ahead of Tronno, Florida and even Boston still has them on the outside looking in.

 

You've got to get top 8 for the playoffs, not top 12.

[AJgoal]

There's another thing to consider where Eichel is concerned. He played a grand total of 55 games last year. It's typical for college players to hit the wall in the second half of their first pro season because their bodies aren't used to playing that often. There's a good chance he'll have a great first half, and tail off around the all-star break, right when other teams start to heat up as the playoff race gets tighter.

[JR Ewing]

Columbus was arguably the best team in the league down the stretch. Ottawa got all the attention because of the playoff run, but Columbus was just as good if not better. The only reason Columbus suffered like they did early was the fact that injuries killed them. They'll be vastly better this year. They are a threat to win their division.

 

Eichel may very well be a great player, but we're not talking Gretzk/Lemieux. That's the kind of player you'd need to get the 130 goals that @JR Ewing is talking about. It's simply not going to happen without a miracle for the ages. They're going to be better. They may be much better, but one rookie isn't going to bring about one of the biggest turnarounds in NHL history. The Sabres have another year or two of building.

Even those guys can't improve a team by that much. After all, a player isn't replacing zero marginal goals, right? As an example...

Let's say

-that everything goes perfectly for Jack Eichel.

-that he's ready to take Tyler Ennis' minutes away.

-that the Sabres are no worse off defensively to put a teenager in those minutes, and won't surrender more goals as a result.

-that he's good enough to score enough points to have led the NHL in points last year with 87 (not very likely, but let's say it anyway).

Last year, Ennis scored 20-26-46 which is good for 20 Goals Created.

If Eichel were to put up points at the same rate as Jamie Benn (35-52-87) that's good for 37 Goals Created.

And again, that's if *everything* were to go perfectly for Jack Eichel. The Sabres would have a net improvement of 17 goals. Great. Only 115 more to go.

---

Let's say that Jack Eichel is 19-year old Wayne Gretzky, and that he can also put up 51-86-137. Let's pretend that I'm not talking complete ****...

Anyway. With those sorts of numbers, we're looking at something like 55 Goals Created. That's an improvement of 35 goals over last year for the Sabres... They still need to improve by a total of about 100 more goals aside from that to be looking at competing for the playoffs.

 

It's a pipe dream.

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

There's another thing to consider where Eichel is concerned. He played a grand total of 55 games last year. It's typical for college players to hit the wall in the second half of their first pro season because their bodies aren't used to playing that often. There's a good chance he'll have a great first half, and tail off around the all-star break, right when other teams start to heat up as the playoff race gets tighter.

 

This ^^^

 

An often overlooked point when trying to figure how a young rookie will do when transitioning to playing X amount of games before turning pro, then being asked to go a full 82 NHL game schedule (plus playoffs if his team gets in).

 

It's a very valid concern.

[ScottM]

Even those guys can't improve a team by that much. After all, a player isn't replacing zero marginal goals, right? As an example...

Let's say

-that everything goes perfectly for Jack Eichel.

-that he's ready to take Tyler Ennis' minutes away.

-that the Sabres are no worse off defensively to put a teenager in those minutes, and won't surrender more goals as a result.

-that he's good enough to score enough points to have led the NHL in points last year with 87 (not very likely, but let's say it anyway).

Last year, Ennis scored 20-26-46 which is good for 20 Goals Created.

If Eichel were to put up points at the same rate as Jamie Benn (35-52-87) that's good for 37 Goals Created.

And again, that's if *everything* were to go perfectly for Jack Eichel. The Sabres would have a net improvement of 17 goals. Great. Only 115 more to go.

---

Let's say that Jack Eichel is 19-year old Wayne Gretzky, and that he can also put up 51-86-137. Let's pretend that I'm not talking complete ****...

Anyway. With those sorts of numbers, we're looking at something like 55 Goals Created. That's an improvement of 35 goals over last year for the Sabres... They still need to improve by a total of about 100 more goals aside from that to be looking at competing for the playoffs.

 

It's a pipe dream.

 

That's really a great analysis post. And the last sentence sums it all up very well. It's simply not going to happen this year. The Sabres need more pieces, and that's going to take another year or two.

[Buffalo Rick]

Columbus was arguably the best team in the league down the stretch. Ottawa got all the attention because of the playoff run, but Columbus was just as good if not better. The only reason Columbus suffered like they did early was the fact that injuries killed them. They'll be vastly better this year. They are a threat to win their division.

 

Eichel may very well be a great player, but we're not talking Gretzk/Lemieux. That's the kind of player you'd need to get the 130 goals that @JR Ewing is talking about. It's simply not going to happen without a miracle for the ages. They're going to be better. They may be much better, but one rookie isn't going to bring about one of the biggest turnarounds in NHL history. The Sabres have another year or two of building.

I know they have more building.  I know it.  But in a league where alot of teams get in, its not impossible.  I would not hold Ennis to only getting 20 goals this year either.  I believe this will be his finest year ever.  Kane and Reinhart are kind of mystery's in all of this.  I do not think you can sell me Florida with such confidence and give the Sabres no shot at all.  I just have seen it happen many times before where teams have done it.  I am not talking about going deep.  I am just talking about being in the race for a lower seed.  That is not impossible to comprehend

[ScottM]

I know they have more building.  I know it.  But in a league where alot of teams get in, its not impossible.  I would not hold Ennis to only getting 20 goals this year either.  I believe this will be his finest year ever.  Kane and Reinhart are kind of mystery's in all of this.  I do not think you can sell me Florida with such confidence and give the Sabres no shot at all.  I just have seen it happen many times before where teams have done it.  I am not talking about going deep.  I am just talking about being in the race for a lower seed.  That is not impossible to comprehend

 

I know I can't sell you that the Sabres have no shot at all, but I fully believe they don't. I don't think as highly as Florida as I do Columbus, but I feel very confident that they'll finish above the Sabres. I think the Panthers will be just on the outside looking in, but Buffalo will be far outside. You won't agree with me, and you probably won't like it when I say this, but it is nearly impossible for me to conceive of Buffalo making the playoffs. It would be one of the biggest surprises in league history.

[Buffalo Rick]

I know I can't sell you that the Sabres have no shot at all, but I fully believe they don't. I don't think as highly as Florida as I do Columbus, but I feel very confident that they'll finish above the Sabres. I think the Panthers will be just on the outside looking in, but Buffalo will be far outside. You won't agree with me, and you probably won't like it when I say this, but it is nearly impossible for me to conceive of Buffalo making the playoffs. It would be one of the biggest surprises in league history.

For Gods sake we are not the Colorado Rockies of Don Cherry because of one horrid season that landed us the big Enchilada.  You guys are going to get lit up by us one of these nights.  Cant wait to see Eichel do a number on Philly

[ScottM]

For Gods sake we are not the Colorado Rockies of Don Cherry because of one horrid season that landed us the big Enchilada.  You guys are going to get lit up by us one of these nights.  Cant wait to see Eichel do a number on Philly

 

I'm not going to argue with you anymore. You started this thread to ask for opinions, and several us have given them. We just happen not to agree with you. If you don't want to hear that (and I mean no offense by this), don't ask. Our disagreements aren't personal insults.

 

Besides, I'm not a Flyers fan. Everyone here knows that. Lol

[radoran]

one horrid season

 

That was Buffalo's third last place finish in a division in a row.

 

Reiger destroyed your team so they could get to this point and then turn around. That was his plan. You liked him.

 

Stop acting like you were a perennial playoff participant - you have two rounds of playoff hockey in the past eight years.

 

You guys are going to get lit up by us one of these nights. Cant wait to see Eichel do a number on Philly

 

ONCE AGAIN - SCOTTM IS NOT A FLYERS FAN - YOU'RE TALKING TO A FAN OF A TEAM THAT WATCHED YOUR GOALIE PLAY ON A REGULAR BASIS.

 

If you can't handle the basic task of noting the "Favorite Team" under the poster's avatar, why should anyone take your hockey "analysis" seriously?

 

You started this thread to ask for opinions, and several us have given them.

 

He asked the very question "why can't they" and he got the answers.

[flyercanuck]

For Gods sake we are not the Colorado Rockies of Don Cherry because of one horrid season that landed us the big Enchilada.  You guys are going to get lit up by us one of these nights.  Cant wait to see Eichel do a number on Philly

 

I'll add one more thing to what rad and Scott have already corrected you on...you didn't get the big Enchilada...Edmonton did. 

 

Carry on being wrong about almost everything.

[Buffalo Rick]

I'll add one more thing to what rad and Scott have already corrected you on...you didn't get the big Enchilada...Edmonton did. 

 

Carry on being wrong about almost everything.

Time will tell

[Unleashed Fury]

Jack Eichel and Evander Kane are definitely going help get points. It still has to be a lot ofpoints to make it to an 8th seed. Although the Sabres have improved I don't know if it will be just enough. You have to think of the other teams in the conference who also improved or attempted to improve. I think the Sabres improve a lot and will be no where near going for the worst record with the likes of the Oilers. I still think they just miss out in the end for the playoffs. It is going to be exciting because they will be in the mix right to th end.

[Buffalo Rick]

Jack Eichel and Evander Kane are definitely going help get points. It still has to be a lot ofpoints to make it to an 8th seed. Although the Sabres have improved I don't know if it will be just enough. You have to think of the other teams in the conference who also improved or attempted to improve. I think the Sabres improve a lot and will be no where near going for the worst record with the likes of the Oilers. I still think they just miss out in the end for the playoffs. It is going to be exciting because they will be in the mix right to th end.

Nice to see your optomism.  At least you give us a shot.  I will admit I know nothing of this goalie.  I wish Miller had been released and come back.  But he did not.   His loss.  This team is going to score.  But can they keep the puck out?  Not likely.  So they are probably going to be in alot of shootout type games.  I would hope.  Bogosian not starting out does not help

[JR Ewing]

Nice to see your optomism.  At least you give us a shot.  I will admit I know nothing of this goalie.  I wish Miller had been released and come back.  But he did not.   His loss.  This team is going to score.  But can they keep the puck out?  Not likely.  So they are probably going to be in alot of shootout type games.  I would hope.  Bogosian not starting out does not help

 

From what we've seen of 3-on-3, I don't think we're going to be getting to the shootout nearly as much.

[Unleashed Fury]

Nice to see your optomism.  At least you give us a shot.  I will admit I know nothing of this goalie.  I wish Miller had been released and come back.  But he did not.   His loss.  This team is going to score.  But can they keep the puck out?  Not likely.  So they are probably going to be in alot of shootout type games.  I would hope.  Bogosian not starting out does not help

At least you will get to watch some exciting high scoring contests.

From what we've seen of 3-on-3, I don't think we're going to be getting to the shootout nearly as much.

Yes they have been scoring pretty quickly in the 3 on 3. I didn't like the shootout much anyway.

[Buffalo Rick]

At least you will get to watch some exciting high scoring contests.

Yes they have been scoring pretty quickly in the 3 on 3. I didn't like the shootout much anyway.

I think there will be some games that could very well be 8-7.  Like the old days.  I am hoping this goalie turns out to be better than stated on this forum by some members that just criticize anyone that  wears the Blue and Gold.  Jack Eichel is not the lone reason for us to have some optomism.  I think Murray has done a great job of putting us in position to take a huge step forward this year.  Evander Kane and O'Reilly and McGinn can all be guys that turn some heads.  29 is the number of wins that Vegas has projected as a bar set for our over or under.  I say over 29.  If we can win 35 its a good season.

[radoran]

I am hoping this goalie turns out to be better than stated on this forum by some members that just criticize anyone that wears the Blue and Gold.

 

Or have watched him play for their team for the past three seasons.

 

He was 9-12-3, 3.02, .905 for the Sens last season.

 

True story.

 

Pretending facts don't exist doesn't make them go away.