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Why can't the Sabres surprise and sneak into a low seed?


Buffalo Rick

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Hockey every year has its surprise teams and teams that have not make it in a while make it.  Why not us with Eichel and the guys we picked up along with the vets we have like Ennis, Gionta and Moulson?  Why not?  To  me the biggest hurdle will be goaltending?  If we can get decent goaltending we can fly past teams like Florida.

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OK, but Florida wasn't in the playoffs last year so "flying by" them won't get you much.

 

Who was the "surprise team" last season? Winnipeg? Increased all of eight wins on the year before. Calgary? Increased 10 wins.

 

Buffalo essentially needs to increase 20 wins to get into playoff position.

 

It's a big jump in a pretty tough division.

 

I don't think next year is the Sabres' year to get back into the playoffs (although not entirely impossible). But I don't think they're going to be out of the picture very much longer if they have the patience to develop.

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There are a few reasons why I put the Sabres outside looking in:

 

Lack of a goaltender, any goaltender. You'd need to hope for a breakout year by one of Lehner or Johnson. Johnson is going to turn 30 this season, so the chance of him breaking out is slim. Lehner is young, but I haven't seen enough to believe he'll carry the team this season.

 

Defense. Colaiacovo is decent, but is also an injury waiting to happen. Franson has never lived up to his potential, and very well might have been ruined by the Leafs. Donovan was such a standout on the Isles that they declined to qualify him. Weber is a middling defensive defenseman. Risto is a promising young guy, and Bogosian is a good defenseman, but if they're your top pairing, it's going to be a tough year.

 

Secondary scoring. Eichel and O'Reilly alone aren't going to improve the offense enough to jump the team into the playoffs. Ottawa had 5 players with more points than anyone on the Sabres last year. The Penguins had 4, and added a 30 goal scorer in Kessel. Those were the 7-8 seeds last year (Florida, whom you think you can jump, wasn't even 9th. That was Boston). Not to mention, Eichel hasn't proven anything at any professional level. History is littered with "can't miss" prospects who did. He's got a better chance than most, but crowning any prospect a star before they become one is a recipe for heartburn.

 

Coaching. Bylsma is poor at adjusting on the fly, and poor at utilizing his talent. He's not a coach to make a team more than the sum of their parts, which is the kind of team the Sabres would need to be to squeak into the tournament this year. I think the future looks pretty good for Buffalo, but not for another couple of years.

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Let's look at some quick numbers.

Avg of bottom 4 finishers in 2015: 232 GF, 213 GA
Sabres in 2015: 161 GF, 274 GA
Difference: 71 GF, 61 GA

The Sabres would have to improve their goal differential by 132 goals. I think they'll be better too, but they were just so bad last season that this isn't a gap which can be closed in one year. At least if they'd had horrific goaltending where you could say "even average SV% would net them X goals". But we can't do that, as it really wasn't so awful.

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The Sabres will be better, but I'll be shocked if this is their year. For one thing, a rookie is the guy they're counting on most to help them make the turnaround. Can it work? Sure. Will it work? Probably not if the playoffs is your goal. The fact is, the Sabres could make a huge surge in the standings and still fall short of the playoffs. I think it's simply too big of a gap to close in one year.

 

Goaltending is another thing that would scare me as a Sabres fan. I was a big fan of Robin Lehner at first. Then, I watched him get worse and worse and worse. I kept telling myself that he'd eventually turn himself around, but he never did in Ottawa. By the time we dealt him, I was nothing short of relieved to see him go. I hate feeling that way about any player, but I did. He was just that bad. If he's your number one, all I can say is good luck with that. He's not an every night guy.

 

Ask me this question in a couple of years, and my answer very well may be much different. Buffalo has taken some steps, but they have more left to go. They have to re-lay the foundation this year.

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  Sabres could use one more year of suckage. They are going to be a young team this year, and thus prone to some rookie errors and defensive breakdowns etc. Like AJ said, the lack of a respectable goalie will really hurt this team. This should be a year where the Sabres concentrate on playing the "right" way and developing good solid work habits. If they could somehow finish last, Austin Matthews with Eichel AND Bennet....wow...that is 3 wicked star centers right there. Bennett may be used as a pawn to get a star d-man or star goalie in the org.

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One never says "never" in the NHL with regards to how well a team may or may not do, but the Sabres making the playoffs THIS year sure does seem like a stretch, even with the nice additions.

 

Granted, the goal of ANY team, no matter how bad or at what point of the competitive curve they are at, should be to make the post season, then by extension, the SC Finals....and ultimately winning it all.

 

But reality will sink in for Buffalo, and that reality is, that while they certainly, on paper, have improved themselves tremendously, they were so far down the competitive hole that it will take more than some good draft picks, some nice signings, and some "potential" from some guys who have been mediocre to this point to just jump right into the post season in 2016.....especially given the talent they will face in their own division, and by extension, in the Metro division for WC spots.

 

I see no reason to think the Bolts, Wings, and Habs can't contend once again for the top spots in the division.

Throw in some other like the Senators who are a complete darkhorse to me at this point, the Leafs, who may finally be getting things in order (at least well enough to be bothersome to teams looking for post season spots), and even those Florida Panthers some seem to be taking lightly, and you can see how the Atlantic is one tough division to crack for Buffalo.

 

HJ is right:

Every season, there does seem to be a team or two that just puts things all together and makes the post season, but just looking at the Atlantic, if I were to pick ONE team to do that this year, I would actually pick those Florida Panthers who seemed to do everything right last season EXCEPT score consistently.

They get that and it could be them grabbing a playoff spot away from a team that made in in last year.

 

As for Wild Cards, let's say for arguments sake the top three finishers in the Metro are the Capitals, Rangers, and Pens.

That leaves teams like the Isles, the injury free Blue Jackets, and MAYBE even the youth infused Flyers to contend with for WC spots in ADDITION to competition from the Atlantic from teams that don't make the top three there.

 

So unless the Sabres are better than Florida, Ottawa, Toronto, Columbus, Philadelphia, and the Islanders (and frankly, I don't think they are at this point), then they aren't making the post season this year...though they could certainly play much more competitive games than what they have the last few seasons.

 

Lots of youth on Buffalo, lots of guys with potential, lots of guys with question marks....all could be a good thing, but one must be aware of the reverse:

That all the youth, all the guys with potential, and those guys with question marks, may NOT get it all together the first time they are thrown together.

 

Mistakes will be made (young teams generally do...even the Lightning did and still do, despite the talent), injuries will happen, and some may simply underperform.

And in Buffalo's current state, while improved, they simply cannot afford any missteps given the competition they face for playoff seating this coming season.

 

If Buffalo were a casserole, I'd take it out of the oven, check on it, then realize it still needs more time to cook and simmer, and put it back in for another spell.

Sabres are simply not yet ready for prime time.

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@Hockey Junkie

They will be improved.

They will miss the playoffs by a mile.

Lehner sucks, as in he really, really sucks as in the biggest steal in the draft is what Ottawa got for him. Just a horrible goalie with poor technique. Nothing to see there. Makarov may be an NHL tender down the road but not this year. Acquiring Lehner was kind of like Edmonton adding Scrivens a few years ago, a stop gap measure, nothing more. If Murray thinks Lehner is the answer he does not know the question.

The forwards are VASTLY improved, Kane, Reinhart, O'Reilly and Eichel are going to improve the team. Moulson cannot be worse, Foligno needs to stay healthy, overall it has went from a weakness to a strength. McGinn is an underated favorite of mine, Legwand is aging but can still run a power play. Ennis and Grigorenko can both flat out play.

Defense Bogosian and Franson have glaring weaknesses but both are an improvement. Gorges is one of the leagues best shot blockers, Ristolainen has potential. But overall, the defense is very sub par in front of a subpar goalie and it will doom the team.

Bylsma will be a fine coach for these kids and will turn it around. Not this year, maybe not even next but very soon these guys will be relevant. It was a great offseason for the Sabres, they will make a leap forward but in the tough balanced Eastern conference a leap forward will not be enough to compete.

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  Sabres could use one more year of suckage. They are going to be a young team this year, and thus prone to some rookie errors and defensive breakdowns etc. Like AJ said, the lack of a respectable goalie will really hurt this team. This should be a year where the Sabres concentrate on playing the "right" way and developing good solid work habits. If they could somehow finish last, Austin Matthews with Eichel AND Bennet....wow...that is 3 wicked star centers right there. Bennett may be used as a pawn to get a star d-man or star goalie in the org.

 

Reinhart?

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I think the Sabres have the potential to be a be a surprise team, but I don't think they will. I think Eichel wins the Calder this year, but there are so many teams in the East that are deeper, and have better goalies.[/quote. My buddy is coming from San Jose and I am getting us tickets to Sabres\Sharks. The Sabres for some strange reason OWN them. It's very strange I will admit. Last night without Eichel or Kane they beat the Leafs 6-4! Can we expect the Leafs to suck again
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They are playing pretty decent so far this preseason so I wouldn't be surprised if they sneaked in as a #7 or #8 seed. Don't expect them to win a playoff series, but they could sneak in.

 

Haha...yea, doing well in the preseason.....the ultimate kiss of death!  :lol:

 

Buffalo fans say: "We can score on anybody now! Even that goalie Willy Pritchard who is on a PTO...bring on the playoffs!"   :ph34r:

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Well I believe we are already better on paper than the Leafs and likely several other teams but my real concern is the goalie. If Miller was here even I would give us a big shot. I do not know if Murray has any plans for further action at this point?  But who knows?  I do not think the East is that tough so that is why I think its not so far fetched that this team could sneak into a low seeding.  I see a few teams that may take a step backwards.  The Sabres may have to outscore opponents to win.  Unless one of these goalies I know nothing about plays over their head?  It does happen but more often in spurts than over the course of an 82 game grind.  I have to be positive.   Having Jack Eichel can make you have some confidence.  

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Actually, I don't see any reason why they can't. It's a long season with possible injuries, slumps, and just plain bad luck at times - for any team. 

 

The Sabers have made some good deals in the off-season and could possibly make more if it turns out they are close in Feb. or March.

 

Only time will tell....

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Again, yes, the Sabres are better on paper, but don't underestimate their weakness in net. I'll be shocked if Robin Lehner plays like a #1 goalie. He's gotten progressively worse over the past three seasons, and if that continues, Buffalo is going to have a mess. If I were to pick one reason why I give them little to no shot at the postseason, it's in net.

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Again, yes, the Sabres are better on paper, but don't underestimate their weakness in net. I'll be shocked if Robin Lehner plays like a #1 goalie. He's gotten progressively worse over the past three seasons, and if that continues, Buffalo is going to have a mess. If I were to pick one reason why I give them little to no shot at the postseason, it's in net.

He pitched a shutout last night.  So I am taking all this stuff I am reading here with a grain of salt.  He is not a Flyer so he is not worthy of any praise.  As for the Sabres lineup, they have some pretty scary guys in there

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