Leafs Trade Deadline

[hobie]

TO is lurking in the playoff race and will probably be in contention at least until the TDL.

 

Should TO stay the course, which is continue to trade vets like Bozak, JVR, Polak, Hunwick for prospects and draft picks or is it time to start looking for players to improve the team.

 

Teams are only allowed to have 50 players signed to contracts on any given year, TO currently has 47 signed. Laich, Michalek and Greening will be UFAs next year so we can expect them to be gone. There are a lot of RFAs and UFAs beyond the mentioned 3 for next year like Sparks, Bibeau and Leipsic that TO will try to sign so the contract volume problem shouldn't be a problem. Is having 47 players signed an indication that TO has a superior number of prospects, no, since the average per team appears to be around 46, most teams have at least one minor league team and some like TO have 2, the Marlies and the Solar Bears.

 

If TO does stay the course and start trading vets, what would be the consequences. TO would probably drop out of playoff contention which might be feasible because even advancing beyond the 1st round seems unlikely. Most of TO's vets are signed either till the end of this year or next and might be considered expendable, for the right price. Getting low level 1st rounders or multiple other choices plus prospects would seem a perfect result for a team that is rebuilding. In the hands of a competent scouting department, this strategy would seem ideal.

 

What would be the subsequent result of the fire sale to the team, a bright future, probably, but a seriously compromised present, undoubtedly. The Marlies are having a horrible year both offensively and defensively so even tho TO has 47 signed it's probably unlikely adequate replacements are available. There is a prevalent feeling that rebuilding is about player accumulation and tho that's an important facet of rebuilding so is culture. A positive culture results from both an attitudinal change and winning. Both the attitude change and winning have so far been accomplished thru development while having the right mix of players that enabled a better culture than we've seen in the past.

 

Removing any piece from this mix is going to undermine the culture, undermine the development of what TO has now. As important as future players either draft choices or prospects will be in TO's future, it's as important that what TO has now is encouraged, fostered. If TO were to trade JVR for anything except a proper replacement player then what's been accomplished to date could very easily be derailed. This trade or anything like it could be a management signal of giving up that the players would receive loud and clear and their play might then show this. 

 

I think TO should approach the TDL as a buyer looking to improve the team now and for the future, looking to make what's good now even better rather than dealing away the present hoping that the team might be better 3 to 5 years into the future.

 

 

[BluPuk]

My 2 cents? Stay the course. And I think that is what the Leafs will do. 

[hobie]

6 hours ago, BluPuk said:

My 2 cents? Stay the course. And I think that is what the Leafs will do. 

 

What is your perception of the course?

[Podein25]

59 minutes ago, hobie said:

 

What is your perception of the course?

 

I think it begins at College and University, goes down to Queen St W and then up Yonge. I'm not sure though, the route looks a bit haggard: [kidding, kidding]

 

[jammer2]

3 hours ago, Podein25 said:

 

I think it begins at College and University, goes down to Queen St W and then up Yonge. I'm not sure though, the route looks a bit haggard: [kidding, kidding]

 

 

 Thanks for the afternoon chuckle!!   Sad part, they may indeed be planning that sucker out in 3 or 4 years, maybe sooner if Shanny has his way!

[jammer2]

On 1/16/2017 at 1:24 PM, hobie said:

TO is lurking in the playoff race and will probably be in contention at least until the TDL.

 

Should TO stay the course, which is continue to trade vets like Bozak, JVR, Polak, Hunwick for prospects and draft picks or is it time to start looking for players to improve the team.

 

Teams are only allowed to have 50 players signed to contracts on any given year, TO currently has 47 signed. Laich, Michalek and Greening will be UFAs next year so we can expect them to be gone. There are a lot of RFAs and UFAs beyond the mentioned 3 for next year like Sparks, Bibeau and Leipsic that TO will try to sign so the contract volume problem shouldn't be a problem. Is having 47 players signed an indication that TO has a superior number of prospects, no, since the average per team appears to be around 46, most teams have at least one minor league team and some like TO have 2, the Marlies and the Solar Bears.

 

If TO does stay the course and start trading vets, what would be the consequences. TO would probably drop out of playoff contention which might be feasible because even advancing beyond the 1st round seems unlikely. Most of TO's vets are signed either till the end of this year or next and might be considered expendable, for the right price. Getting low level 1st rounders or multiple other choices plus prospects would seem a perfect result for a team that is rebuilding. In the hands of a competent scouting department, this strategy would seem ideal.

 

What would be the subsequent result of the fire sale to the team, a bright future, probably, but a seriously compromised present, undoubtedly. The Marlies are having a horrible year both offensively and defensively so even tho TO has 47 signed it's probably unlikely adequate replacements are available. There is a prevalent feeling that rebuilding is about player accumulation and tho that's an important facet of rebuilding so is culture. A positive culture results from both an attitudinal change and winning. Both the attitude change and winning have so far been accomplished thru development while having the right mix of players that enabled a better culture than we've seen in the past.

 

Removing any piece from this mix is going to undermine the culture, undermine the development of what TO has now. As important as future players either draft choices or prospects will be in TO's future, it's as important that what TO has now is encouraged, fostered. If TO were to trade JVR for anything except a proper replacement player then what's been accomplished to date could very easily be derailed. This trade or anything like it could be a management signal of giving up that the players would receive loud and clear and their play might then show this. 

 

I think TO should approach the TDL as a buyer looking to improve the team now and for the future, looking to make what's good now even better rather than dealing away the present hoping that the team might be better 3 to 5 years into the future.

 

 

 

 

 Nice post. This article from hockey writers is indirectly related, who the Leafs might or might not protect the looming expansion draft. They are so young, the writer projects a few top tier Marlies on the protected list, so the Leafs need not worry about this situation like other teams will.

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/protected-toronto-maple-leafs-at-halfway/

 

[jammer2]

Just now, jammer2 said:

Teams are only allowed to have 50 players signed to contracts on any given year, TO currently has 47 signed. Laich, Michalek and Greening will be UFAs next year so we can expect them to be gone. There are a lot of RFAs and UFAs beyond the mentioned 3 for next year like Sparks, Bibeau and Leipsic that TO will try to sign so the contract volume problem shouldn't be a problem. Is having 47 players signed an indication that TO has a superior number of prospects, no, since the average per team appears to be around 46, most teams have at least one minor league team and some like TO have 2, the Marlies and the Solar Bears.

 

 This is a good sign for the Leafs. It will allow them to troll the undrafted ranks of the OHL, WHL QMJHL and NCAA among other legues, looking for the gems that got overlooked. Considering the Flyers signed dman Myers, who played for Team Canada this year, it's a solid way to go about things. For instance, my hometown Spits have this overager DiGicinto, who was drafted by the Bolts, but let go....a useful player with good moves and wheels, a bit smaller, but the kinda guy the Leafs can go out and get with those extra contracts to burn. Shanny is a smart dude, I expect him to take advantage of this going forward.

[hobie]

13 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

 

 This is a good sign for the Leafs. It will allow them to troll the undrafted ranks of the OHL, WHL QMJHL and NCAA among other legues, looking for the gems that got overlooked. Considering the Flyers signed dman Myers, who played for Team Canada this year, it's a solid way to go about things. For instance, my hometown Spits have this overager DiGicinto, who was drafted by the Bolts, but let go....a useful player with good moves and wheels, a bit smaller, but the kinda guy the Leafs can go out and get with those extra contracts to burn. Shanny is a smart dude, I expect him to take advantage of this going forward.

 

Actually TO is trolling those ranks and drafting overage players.

 

TO has been signing undrafted FAs for years and outside of Bozak none has made the team.

 

The places you've mentioned are overscouted, IMO, TO and all teams need to be spending more time and scouting $s in Russia, Czeck and other such places. It was Detroit's desire to scout nontraditional areas that enabled them to take chances on players like Datsyuk, Zetterberg, etc. I would think that all NHL teams would've learned from this but they don't seem to have.  

[flyercanuck]

32 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

 

 Thanks for the afternoon chuckle!!   Sad part, they may indeed be planning that sucker out in 3 or 4 years, maybe sooner if Shanny has his way!

 

Not with that D they won't. And with Marner and Mathews and Nylander they can forget about the "no brainer top of the draft" picks. So now they need to find a top pairing without a top pairing draft pick. Amongst other things.

 

They're on the right track...but the picking is becoming more difficult the better they get.

[jammer2]

Just now, hobie said:

 

Actually TO is trolling those ranks and drafting overage players.

 

TO has been signing undrafted FAs for years and outside of Bozak none has made the team.

 

The places you've mentioned are overscouted, IMO, TO and all teams need to be spending more time and scouting $s in Russia, Czeck and other such places. It was Detroit's desire to scout nontraditional areas that enabled them to take chances on players like Datsyuk, Zetterberg, etc. I would think that all NHL teams would've learned from this but they don't seem to have.  

 

 True, to a certain extent, Europe is no longer underscouted though. It' been a LOT of years since Detroit hit it big with Dats and Zetts. Myers, who is going to be a star, 6'4 and skates like the wind, was overlooked by all 30 teams for every round. Different players peak at different times, some are classic late bloomers. The CHL ranks are full of these types.

[jammer2]

2 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Not with that D they won't. And with Marner and Mathews and Nylander they can forget about the "no brainer top of the draft" picks. So now they need to find a top pairing without a top pairing draft pick. Amongst other things.

 

They're on the right track...but the picking is becoming more difficult the better they get.

 

 Well, the Leafs are the exact opposite of the Flyers. Flyers built their defense first, the Leafs went forward. Yes, harder to find forwards than d-men, but their top 6 is young and talented and they can now concentrate on building the D through the draft. I'm a big McDermott fan, think he's a legit guy, but lots of voids to fill going forward. The Leafs do have 20 mill + to spend in UFA, if spent correctly, that can change 1/3rd of your defense real quick.

[hobie]

Quote

The Sabres are still, however, a very bad possession team; their 47.1% score-adjusted CF ranks fifth-last in the NHL. Their PK is a league-worst 74%. One look at their personnel on the blueline makes it abundantly clear where the problem may reside.

More than, anything, however, my theory on this stalled Sabres team is that it simply shows the pitfall of a long, major tanking effort. We all recall that the Sabres went all-in on a massive tank effort after hitting rock bottom in 2013-14. They underwent a fire sale in 2014, and purposefully built a roster with the goal of being as bad as humanly possible for the 2014-15 season. I can't state enough how bad the Sabres were. Their possession numbers were so historically bad, many graphs were incapable of even recording them due to space restrictions. Their 54-point season in 2014-15 was the worst of any team since the implementation of the shootout in 2005-06.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/1/17/14286676/too-close-to-the-falls-sabres-leafs-preview

 

This is something I fear TO might do, lose to acquire better seeded draft choices which on the surface seems a practical team building concept but is often very flawed. The Oilers having 4 #1 draft choices should have been better earlier but really it's who those #1s are that really matters. Meanwhile losing creates a losing culture which is difficult to shake and players that otherwise might be decent lose the ability to win and end up viewed like this article says, undesirable. 

 

TO has it's share of undesirables Bozak, JVR, Kadri, Gardiner, Rielly, plus who've experienced losing for too long, they've lost the will or resolve to win, too long in a losing culture, they need to be moved ultimately if TO really wants to progress. 

[hf101]

@hobie

 

Good topic.

I kinda took a few moments to take a look at who the Leafs have to protect and who they could let go for the expansion draft and we need to give Shanahan a ton of credit here as he really doesn't need to expose anyone of value.  That being said, with the Leafs in a contention for a playoff spot I don't really see Shanny making any deadline moves this year.  Adding a player they would have to protect basically means they have to expose someone else they might not want to expose.

 

I think this team would be content to just make the playoffs and see how everything shakes out in the first round. The real trading then begins after the expansion draft.

[flyercanuck]

9 hours ago, jammer2 said:

 

 Well, the Leafs are the exact opposite of the Flyers. Flyers built their defense first, the Leafs went forward. Yes, harder to find forwards than d-men, but their top 6 is young and talented and they can now concentrate on building the D through the draft. I'm a big McDermott fan, think he's a legit guy, but lots of voids to fill going forward. The Leafs do have 20 mill + to spend in UFA, if spent correctly, that can change 1/3rd of your defense real quick.

 

I think you meant harder to find D than forwards...

 

They found 3 really good players while in tank mode...harder to find good players, let alone defence, when not.

 

The problem with buying defence is (1) nobody lets good ones go and (2) have you seen the steaming pile of crap defence up as UFAs this year? There's Shattenkirk, who if he hasn't been signed and traded will be vastly overpaid as an UFA. Sure they could grab the Mark Streits of the world...look where that got us. And that's when he was alright. 

[BluPuk]

The Leafs drafted the BPA regardless of position and that's the thing to do. The challenge will be in filling in the rest....

 

I believe the only trades the Leafs will make will be minor ones. Any "big" trades like JVR or Bozak will be for draft picks. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 1/16/2017 at 1:24 PM, hobie said:

Should TO stay the course, which is continue to trade vets like Bozak, JVR, Polak, Hunwick for prospects and draft picks or is it time to start looking for players to improve the team.

 

My suggestion has always been to dangle someone like JVR and/or Bozak to upgrade the defence. They're both proven NHL players that can provide secondary scoring. Teams will want those guys. Surely that can net us an upgrade on defence. 

 

The Leafs need to be drafting defencemen with the picks they have and acquiring whatever upgrade on defence they can get at the trade deadline. 

[hobie]

Lately TO has been able to play the possession game in the 3rd periods and that is the truest form of d, the easiest way to defend. I think TO's defensive ability will appear to be better and even be better because of the development of the team as a whole.

 

Upgrading any position is always a good thing but weakening a team somewhere to strengthen somewhere else isn't always a proper solution.

[jammer2]

  Tonight was a prime example of what is wrong with TO. Hunwick fails to make an easy play, gives the puck away instead of safely getting the puck out of the zone, then Polak goes on his knees and unsuccessfully waives at the puck, letting Lubomoiv get to the eventual game winner. Leafs need to make some smart buys, almost anyone can upgrade Hunwick and Polak...plus, because Polak is big and physical and plays the pk, he has a bit of value. 

[hobie]

52 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

  Tonight was a prime example of what is wrong with TO. Hunwick fails to make an easy play, gives the puck away instead of safely getting the puck out of the zone, then Polak goes on his knees and unsuccessfully waives at the puck, letting Lubomoiv get to the eventual game winner. Leafs need to make some smart buys, almost anyone can upgrade Hunwick and Polak...plus, because Polak is big and physical and plays the pk, he has a bit of value. 

 

That was bad but ultimately TO screwed up by having the 4th line on at the same time as those 2 with 2+minutes left in a tied game?

[jammer2]

20 minutes ago, hobie said:

 

That was bad but ultimately TO screwed up by having the 4th line on at the same time as those 2 with 2+minutes left in a tied game?

 

 

 Yes, that should never happen. Bad enough having your worst d-men out there, but the 4th line also, almost begging for a loss. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 1/26/2017 at 10:53 PM, jammer2 said:

Polak goes on his knees and unsuccessfully waives at the puck, letting Lubomoiv get to the eventual game winner.

 

Of course the problem on that play was the fact that Polak and his defence partner were left to fend off three opposing forwards because Gauthier and Martin were nowhere to be found, and McElhinney let out a rebound on a soft, sharp angle shot and then a soft goal to finish it off. 

 

Polak was simply caught between two players trying to defend both of them.

 

 

 

[hobie]

4 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Of course the problem on that play was the fact that Polak and his defence partner were left to fend off three opposing forwards because Gauthier and Martin were nowhere to be found, and McElhinney let out a rebound on a soft, sharp angle shot and then a soft goal to finish it off. 

 

Polak was simply caught between two players trying to defend both of them.

 

 

 

 

So ultimately 4 error prone Leafs, members of the 4th line, a 3rd d pair member and a backup goalie were all on the ice at the same time, resulting in a goal against. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

1 hour ago, hobie said:

 

So ultimately 4 error prone Leafs, members of the 4th line, a 3rd d pair member and a backup goalie were all on the ice at the same time, resulting in a goal against. 

 

[jammer2]

7 hours ago, hobie said:

 

So ultimately 4 error prone Leafs, members of the 4th line, a 3rd d pair member and a backup goalie were all on the ice at the same time, resulting in a goal against. 

 

 

 Unless there was a huge mess up, that's gotta be on Babcock. Sometimes, you show faith in guys and see how they respond...if that was the case, he got his answer.....

[hobie]

On 1/17/2017 at 8:14 PM, hf101 said:

@hobie

 

Good topic.

I kinda took a few moments to take a look at who the Leafs have to protect and who they could let go for the expansion draft and we need to give Shanahan a ton of credit here as he really doesn't need to expose anyone of value.  That being said, with the Leafs in a contention for a playoff spot I don't really see Shanny making any deadline moves this year.  Adding a player they would have to protect basically means they have to expose someone else they might not want to expose.

 

I think this team would be content to just make the playoffs and see how everything shakes out in the first round. The real trading then begins after the expansion draft.

 

I find it difficult to agree with the idea that someone should be given credit because the team he presides over doesn't even have enough good players to worry about who might be lost in the expansion draft.