2017-18 Season Post Mortem

[ruxpin]

12 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Sure a 1st rounder you would expect more out of.

 

However we have the benefit of hindsight and projecting guys is hard.

 

You hit and miss.

 

And he was a Holmgren pick.

 

He struck gold with Ghost in the 3rd and not so much with Scott in the 1st. It happens.

Oh for sure.  I don't blame anyone in it.  The comment about the people around him was really hindsight "what if?". And talking about the people before him is silly in any practical sense.  I mentioned Vasy only in a "can you imagine if he fell one more?". I'm betting Holmgren doesn't use a first rounder for a goalie anyway. 

 

Laughton really bothers me.  Big picture, there's a ton more pressing to be bothered about.  I think what bothers me is that he shows flashes where you think if he has turned the corner and we get this consistently...

 

But then not.  I don't think it's an effort thing. I mean I don't know what goes on in practice or whatever, but he seems like effort is there.  He's just dumb.  I guess he's a cheap, young option on the 4th line, but I think that's ultimately what he amounts to.  If he ends up in a package I won't cry about it. As has been stated, though, I don't think he gets much on his own. 

[brelic]

17 hours ago, ruxpin said:

 

Why?   He's blowing his league up and he's doing it consistently and in pretty special fashion.   So barring injury, why are odds firmly against that?     Speaking in general about draft picks, I'm with you.  But when we drill out down to a specific pick who's doing everything that says otherwise, it's not really an "odds are firmly against."   The odds are firmly in favor on this one.

 

The rest?   I don't know that the odds are firmly either way.  Hart looks god.   He's a kid and a goalie and he's still in juniors.  Who knows.  It looks good so far, but any statement regarding him really does have to include "so far."   I know one may say that with Frost, but there's a difference.  Especially in terms of odds.  Racliffe is definitely a "so far" as well, but he's come a long way in such a relatively short period of time that odds are now good on middle six.  

 

Just really commenting on the "odds are firmly against" is all.  If all you're doing is checking the urge to allow yourself to be really optimistic...I completely get that.   Manage expectations and prevent disappointment from being bridge-jumping worthy.   Yeah.  I so completely get that.

 

 

See, this is more of the generally speaking about draft picks that I meant.   Yeah, I agree.  But honestly, we don't have to hit all of them.  

 

To put this in a better frame, take a Tums or something and go back and look at our picks from 2008-2010.    Seriously take some sort of stomach medicine and steel yourself first.  Sbisa, Rinaldo, Bourdon, Lauridsen, Wellwood, McGinn, and Chaput  are the only people who saw NHL ice.  Some of them because we didn't draft any better and that's what we had to throw up there.   Sbisa should be called a victory, but even he ended up with a meh career.   You'll never explain to me why Rinaldo has had such longevity.   And I have no idea who Chaput is.

 

17 picks in 3 years and we have 7 names that spent any time in the NHL.   One guy I don't know,  3 who played less than 50 games. A goon.  And a guy who really should have been so much better (Sbisa).

 

Okay, 2011 we only had 5 picks but got Couturier and Cousins.     2 of 5.   One has what you would actually call "worked out."

 

In 2012, 4 of 7 has seen NHL time.   Stolarz is one of them.  Who knows.  I think he's a backup at best and he lost a season to injury.  But then you have Laughton, Ghost, and Leier.   Like 2011, I think you really arguably have one that you would say "worked out."   Jury is still out on Laughton, but if I'm in the jury I vote against him.  But he's played a full season and if he improves and can be a dependable bottom six guy, it's not so bad.

 

2013:   Still only 6 picks.   Hagg, Morin, Goulbourne.    Amorosa maybe.   Goulbourne and Amorosa are probably not.  Maybe Goulbourne helps fill out a bottom six.   But if Morin does make it, that's 2/6.    

 

2014  Still only 6 picks.    Sanheim & Lindblom.   Maybe Aube-Kubel and Friedman.   I don't think Friedman on the Flyers, but maybe.  And I think NAK is probably bottom 6.  2/6 again.   I'm counting both Sanheim and Lindblom despite the fact one could argue that while they've made it to the NHL they haven't exactly proven anything yet.

 

2015-2017    We've worked our way through the Holmgren-depleted draft cupboard and actually have more picks.  At 16%, I think that probably i

9 picks in 2015

10 picks in 2016

9 picks in 2017 

10 picks this year, including 2 first round.

 

38 picks from 2015-2017.    Provorov is a star in the making.  Patrick should be included there too.  Konecny.

Vorobyov, Allison, Laberge, Rubstov, Frost, Ratcliffe, Hart, Sandstrom should probably eventually see NHL ice.  Maybe Laczynski, Strome, and Twarynski (Laberge and Allison could probably be in this group).    

 

All this to say that from 2011-2014, 41% of the picks made it at least to NHL ice.   4 look like they'll be really good.  (4 of 24.  16%).   16% when you only have 6 picks is only 1.   When you have 9 or 10?   Yeah, you're only up to 2.   But we also have seen higher picks. 

 

At 16%, that probably justifies your "odds are low."   But we've increased the chance of success overall by having a lot more picks and higher ones.    We're getting to the place that the team will be good enough that the picks won't be as early.  And at some point I agree that we'll need to supplement as a result.  But we still have 2 more first rounders coming this year barring trades.   

 

Don't jump ship on the process yet.   (I hated the "process" term for the Sixers, but it's starting to work).   8 years IS an excruciatingly long time from where I sit, too.  It doesn't make it better to explain we spent the first 2 of this still with few picks and long than that digging out from crap.  We're almost there now.   It's like a 4 hour drive home.  The last 45 minutes is just 'GET THERE ALREADY!!!"

 

(Sorry for the ton of long posts today, especially this one.   I'm home today and don't have anything better to do!)

 

 

 

Great post, rux. 

 

What I was getting at with "odds are firmly against" is this:

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

 

Historically, a #27 overall pick like Frost has a 62.5% of playing at least 100 games. 

 

Cullen rates the picks by position, historically, and a #27 overall rates about 3.96.

 

Here are the ratings he used:

10 - Generational
9 - Elite Player
8 - First Line, Top Pair D
7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D
6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
5 - NHL Regular, 350+ NHL games 
4 - Fringe NHLer, 200+ NHL games
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer, 50-200 NHL games
2 - Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games
1 - 10 or fewer NHL games

 

So the average #27 pick ends up being a fringe NHLer.

 

Also, there is a much greater chance that #27 ends up being 4th line or worse (62.5%) than a top 6 forward (16.7%).

 

The percentages drop precipitously after that for later rounds, so guys like Allison, Hart, Ratcliffe et al have an even lower chance at becoming impact NHLers.

 

Don't get me wrong - stats are stats and show the aggregate. Frost is an individual. Hart is an individual. They could fall in those small percentage of players that become impact NHLers. 

 

I sincerely hope they do. 

 

But this study and others I have seen like it are the reason why I can't put too much faith in futures, because that's just bad business. It's smarter to plan for the vast majority of your picks being no better than fringe NHLers or worse, while giving yourself the right wiggle room if they do pan out. I think Hextall has done a decent job at that, and it's definitely his MO. 

 

Frost had an amazing season, and so did Hart. But until they actually arrive on the roster, AND develop into impact players, they are just futures. 

 

All that being said, I'm still on board with the process, but I'm leaning a bit more towards acquiring long-term talent through some smart moves, and it's ok to use some picks and prospects to do that. I feel the Flyers are at the point where that makes sense.

[King Knut]

13 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Yeah heard that about Schenn too. Not buying it.

 

He set up 65+ goals. 

I don’t mind trading him but that’s not going to be absorbed by anyone currently on the team.  

 

I never really worried about losing Schenn because he’d emerged as almost exclusively a power play specialist for them and it was 5on5 where they really needed help. 

 

They’re weak at wing IMHO and it’s not wise to trade away your second most productive player at a position you’re weak at unless you have a plan to replace

 him. 

[ruxpin]

19 minutes ago, brelic said:

So the average #27 pick ends up being a fringe NHLer.

I wonder. 

 

What happens to the percentages when the drafted kid is one of the youngest in the draft and would have gone top 5 the following year had he been a few weeks younger? 

 

Or is second in the OHL in scoring. 

 

I don't know, actually, but willing to bet it changes the math. 

[King Knut]

13 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Comparing 22 year old D men to a 30 year old forward is not the same.

 

And benching Ghost helped him and it helped Sanheim which will pay dividends later.

 

And in order to get a solid goalie you have to give up something of value too.

 

This isn't all about Jake being terrible if you move someone to me it has to be him.

 

It is the price for doing business.

 

 

I wasn’t comparing the players. Just the critiques.  

 

I’d Be curious to see what solid goalies are out there who have 2 or 3 years left in their contracts.  

 

Inunderstand that benching the kids kids helped them (though with Ghost, my jury’s still out.  He’s a better all around d man, but he’s not the same dynamic player who could take a game over by himself and frankly, I’m not sure we couldn’t use a little more of the old ghost.  By the time we’ve unloaded Man Dog and Radko Judas will Ghost remember how to be that Ghost?  But I digress. 

 

Im not saying they have to keep Jake.  Please don’t think that’s my argument.  They simply need a plan in place to replace his role if he goes and he produces a lot of zone entries and a lot of points.  They are already weak at wing (it could be argued they need 3-4 better wingers than what they iced in the playoffs). 

 

If you can move Jake it would justify spending the Tavares money, but either  way I think his role needs to be filled. 

[brelic]

8 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

I wonder. 

 

What happens to the percentages when the drafted kid is one of the youngest in the draft and would have gone top 5 the following year had he been a few weeks younger? 

 

Or is second in the OHL in scoring. 

 

I don't know, actually, but willing to bet it changes the math. 

 

It probably does, because post-draft is part of the development, and I'm sure the draft+1 rankings for the same players would be different than draft day the previous year. 

 

There have also been a lot of scoring leaders and goaltending leaders that went nowhere. 

 

I think Frost is the "surest" thing we have in our prospect pool. Hart is up there too. After that, it gets dicey. 

 

That being said, let me ask you this - if you were GM, would 'waiting' for Frost prevent you from acquiring a bonafide young 3C now (say, Bennett or Reinhart, as examples)?

 

There are other options at 3C with less potential than the two I've mentioned - guys like Bozak come to mind - that could serve as stopgaps. But stopgaps are mediocre - see Filppula, Val. 

 

So it comes back to the very thing we've been talking about all year - should Hextall start to build a real team now with real players that may cost picks and prospects? Or does he keep plugging holes with stopgaps 'hoping' that the guys we really need to pan out, pan out?

[Clarke2Leach]

We're all talking about changing pieces of the puzzle when we have no idea how the puzzle is supposed to end up looking.  The big challenge for Hextall is figuring out what kind of team he wants to build.  I'm struggling to figure out what the Flyers identity is - what kind of team are they? 

 

From the first day Paul Maurice got to Winnipeg, he said he wanted a fast and heavy team and that took a good 2 to 3 seasons to configure and then coach up.  

 

I think Hextall knows (even if we don't) what his end-product is going to end up looking like and that's going to determine who moves and stays.  If his priorities show anything, it's that we're going to have a mobile defense that drives the play with puck handling and quick passes.  That would seem to necessitate forwards who can get open and take the puck on the rush for breakaways and odd-man opportunities - a high-octane offense.  Failing that, I'm at a loss to figure out the future identity of this team.  

 

Adding high-priced pieces for the sake of adding high-priced pieces is like adding chocolate chips to scrambled eggs.  Chocolate chips are delicious, but do they really improve what you're trying to make?

[brelic]

10 minutes ago, Clarke2Leach said:

Adding high-priced pieces for the sake of adding high-priced pieces is like adding chocolate chips to scrambled eggs.  Chocolate chips are delicious, but do they really improve what you're trying to make?

 

I think I understand what you're getting at, but I'm not sure the analogy fits in this case. Can you give me an example of a 'chocolate chip' that wouldn't fit into our scrambled eggs (because, let's face it, that's the Flyers identity right now lol  )

 

Is Tavares a chocolate chip?

 

What about Carlson?

 

Holtby?

 

Or say a trade of Simmonds and Gudas for Mark Stone (assuming Ottawa is too cheap to pay him, which is definitely possible)?

 

 

[ruxpin]

24 minutes ago, brelic said:

So it comes back to the very thing we've been talking about all year - should Hextall start to build a real team now with real players that may cost picks and prospects? Or does he keep plugging holes with stopgaps 'hoping' that the guys we really need to pan out, pan out?

Definitely good questions. For me, I vote for option number 2. I really like Frost. 

 

Some other pieces I consider option 1.  Because there is truth to the assertion they don't all work out.  It's definitely a guessing act so we'd win some and lose some either way. 

 

Like Rubstov, for example. He has potential but even now it's a dice roll. You could get someone to give you decent in exchange for potential. Maybe not straight up. Maybe with a pick. I don't think you get "exciting" in that deal, but maybe (maybe) you get better than Filppula (just to continue with that example). 

 

Maybe I dip into the defensive prospects in a similar way. Nashville traded Jones, for example.  We may still be in wait and see for that example, but it's reasonable. So, I think case by case and potential vs now will always be a balancing act. 

 

I think I agree with you that there's great peril in always being "wait" with everyone. We're back to a playing not to lose mindset doing that. 

[ruxpin]

10 minutes ago, brelic said:

Or say a trade of Simmonds and Gudas for Mark Stone (assuming Ottawa is too cheap to pay him, which is definitely possible)?

Lol. I'd put that chocolate chip in the scrambled eggs every day of the week. 

[ruxpin]

We really do need a chocolate chip in net, though. That'd be my first priority. 

[Clarke2Leach]

10 minutes ago, brelic said:

 

I think I understand what you're getting at, but I'm not sure the analogy fits in this case. Can you give me an example of a 'chocolate chip' that wouldn't fit into our scrambled eggs (because, let's face it, that's the Flyers identity right now lol  )

 

Is Tavares a chocolate chip?

 

What about Carlson?

 

Holtby?

 

Or say a trade of Simmonds and Gudas for Mark Stone (assuming Ottawa is too cheap to pay him, which is definitely possible)?

 

 

I honestly don't know.  Tavares is a 10 million dollar chocolate chip, so there's that.  We also already have a Tavares in Giroux.  

 

I like Carlson - always have, but I don't think there's any way the Flyers can afford him after the aberration of a year he just had (another reason to watch that opportunity pass by).

 

Holtby would be great, but why would the Caps deal him?

 

Mark Stone's a fine player, but why would Ottawa trade an RFA (he can't ask for the moon) for a soon to be UFA and an undisciplined pylon?

[brelic]

2 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Definitely good questions. For me, I vote for option number 2. I really like Frost. 

 

I do too. I really think he's developing incredibly, and could become a top 6 player, possibly slotting in at 2/3 C depending on how Patrick develops (who I see as 1C) and Coots' career arc (might be a 2 or 3C in, say, 4 years). Even then, I think Coots will still be a 1/2C, along with Patrick. So Frost would have to come in and blow the doors off the barn, which would be a great problem to have.

 

 

2 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

Some other pieces I consider option 1.  Because there is truth to the assertion they don't all work out.  It's definitely a guessing act so we'd win some and lose some either way. 

 

Like Rubstov, for example. He has potential but even now it's a dice roll. You could get someone to give you decent in exchange for potential. Maybe not straight up. Maybe with a pick. I don't think you get "exciting" in that deal, but maybe (maybe) you get better than Filppula (just to continue with that example). 

 

Yeah, Rubtsov seems to be going sideways. He's still young, but I don't think there's been any significant development over the past few seasons. Lots of injuries, trades, new linemates and teams, etc. 

 

2 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

Maybe I dip into the defensive prospects in a similar way. Nashville traded Jones, for example.  We may still be in wait and see for that example, but it's reasonable. So, I think case by case and potential vs now will always be a balancing act. 

 

I think I agree with you that there's great peril in always being "wait" with everyone. We're back to a playing not to lose mindset doing that. 

 

Exactly. What's the right balance for Hextall? For example (and just an EXAMPLE so I don't get crucified lol), what if the Flyers traded Simmonds and Gudas for Jeff Frosty Tips Carter? Four years left on his deal, and would be an amazing 3C. I think he's got at least another 2-3 good seasons in him, and can be 4th C in his last year. The salaries are a wash in the trade. 

 

So we get stronger down the middle right now. But that pushes Frost to the side unless he can come in and really show he belongs... although, isn't that the way it should be? In other words, we fill a need now with Carter, and *if* Frost makes it impossible to ignore his place on the team ahead of Carter, you deal with it then. If he doesn't pan out, well, at least you didn't wait around 4 years with guys like Filppula, Laughton, Lehtera, whatever.

 

 

[brelic]

3 minutes ago, Clarke2Leach said:

I honestly don't know.  Tavares is a 10 million dollar chocolate chip, so there's that.  We also already have a Tavares in Giroux.  

 

In a sense, yes. But Giroux is a winger now, so having Tavares as his center would be pretty special. And all of a sudden, we have Tavares, Coots, and Patrick down the middle. That's pretty impressive.

 

3 minutes ago, Clarke2Leach said:

 

I like Carlson - always have, but I don't think there's any way the Flyers can afford him after the aberration of a year he just had (another reason to watch that opportunity pass by).

 

Holtby would be great, but why would the Caps deal him?

 

Good points on both. I was using them more as examples, though I do think Carlson is legit and if the Caps don't resign him, he would definitely bolster the blueline.

 

3 minutes ago, Clarke2Leach said:

 

Mark Stone's a fine player, but why would Ottawa trade an RFA (he can't ask for the moon) for a soon to be UFA and an undisciplined pylon?

 

Better for us to offer sheet him  Because that always ends well for the Flyers!

[Clarke2Leach]

2 minutes ago, brelic said:

In a sense, yes. But Giroux is a winger now, so having Tavares as his center would be pretty special. And all of a sudden, we have Tavares, Coots, and Patrick down the middle. That's pretty impressive.

 

And I get what you're saying, but Giroux was a winger last year (with great regular season success mind you).  We really don't know which position he'll play next year or the year after.  That will probably depend on who else develops quickly.

 

I just think it's too soon to go out an break the bank.  The Flyers aren't winning the cup next year, even if they added Tavares and Karlsson.

 

There will be a time when it makes sense to pick up talent for a good run.  I don't believe the time is now.

[brelic]

 

That's a whole lotta cap space to play with!

 

Also the Flyers officially have the 19th overall pick.

 

There is a 95% chance we'll have the 14th overall too (StL), and a 5% they will hit the lottery and snag a top 3 pick. I'm guessing they will defer our pick to next year in that case.

 

https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2018/

 

This site has us in the range of Bode Wilde (14th overall, defenseman, 6'2", 194#)

 

And Jakub Lauko (19th overall, LW, 6'1", 178#)\

 

 

[brelic]

6 minutes ago, Clarke2Leach said:

I just think it's too soon to go out an break the bank.  The Flyers aren't winning the cup next year, even if they added Tavares and Karlsson.

 

There will be a time when it makes sense to pick up talent for a good run.  I don't believe the time is now.

 

I get what you're saying... and I'm on the fence. 

 

But how often does a 35+ goal scorer in his prime become available for nothing but money and term? 

[Clarke2Leach]

6 minutes ago, brelic said:

 

I get what you're saying... and I'm on the fence. 

 

But how often does a 35+ goal scorer in his prime become available for nothing but money and term? 

He's going to get a 7 year contract (not bad considering his age), but the bidding war will be stooopid for him.  The question isn't whether we can afford him next year or the year after, but can we afford him in the 3rd through 7th years, when all the young bucks start entering their UFA years.

 

If he can help us win a Cup in 2020 or 2021, I'm not opposed, but there are no guarantees.  

 

I suppose, if we somehow got him, we'd be a top 6 left wing and a stud goalie away from really making something happen in about 2 years.

 

 

[off_the_post]

Well, I need to weigh in.  Mostly due to the fact the Flyers are starting to emerge out of the bad contract purgatory. As many pointed out we have Read, Filp, Oduya, and Manning all coming off contract.  I am actually looking forward to this offseason as Hexy finally has an opportunity to do something.  With a couple of high end free agents available it will be interesting.   

 

Personally I would take a shot at Carlson.  However a large contract for him could raise a lot of eyebrows internally.  On the free agent market he would definitely be signed for more than Ghost ($4.5M and IMHO a great contract BTW) and probably somewhere in the range of what Provocop should get. I could see Provorov getting extended this summer.

 

The goalie situation is the most interesting simply since we have two goalies under contract who both are not able to be a true starter and with two AHL goalies who are not top end prospects but are both RFA.  I might be in the minority here but I would go with the same two NHL goalies for next year and have them both come off contract in summer 2019.  I just don't see many viable alternatives that would be considered a definite upgrade without having to give up more assets than I'd be willing to give up.  With both NHL goalies making a total of $5.25M next year the cost is commensurate with results.  That said I would not be heartbroken at all if one were traded for a mid/late round pick.

 

To me 2018/19 will be another year much like this past one unless we bring in a big free agent. We need to just accept that this team will likely be a bubble play off team unless guys like Patrick and Sanheim take it to the next level - which is not totally out of the question. 

 

Is it October yet?

 

[FD19372]

29 minutes ago, off_the_post said:

Well, I need to weigh in.  Mostly due to the fact the Flyers are starting to emerge out of the bad contract purgatory. As many pointed out we have Read, Filp, Oduya, and Manning all coming off contract.  I am actually looking forward to this offseason as Hexy finally has an opportunity to do something.  With a couple of high end free agents available it will be interesting.   

 

Personally I would take a shot at Carlson.  However a large contract for him could raise a lot of eyebrows internally.  On the free agent market he would definitely be signed for more than Ghost ($4.5M and IMHO a great contract BTW) and probably somewhere in the range of what Provocop should get. I could see Provorov getting extended this summer.

 

The goalie situation is the most interesting simply since we have two goalies under contract who both are not able to be a true starter and with two AHL goalies who are not top end prospects but are both RFA.  I might be in the minority here but I would go with the same two NHL goalies for next year and have them both come off contract in summer 2019.  I just don't see many viable alternatives that would be considered a definite upgrade without having to give up more assets than I'd be willing to give up.  With both NHL goalies making a total of $5.25M next year the cost is commensurate with results.  That said I would not be heartbroken at all if one were traded for a mid/late round pick.

 

To me 2018/19 will be another year much like this past one unless we bring in a big free agent. We need to just accept that this team will likely be a bubble play off team unless guys like Patrick and Sanheim take it to the next level - which is not totally out of the question. 

 

Is it October yet?

 

I MIGHT sign Neuvirth but I want no part of Elliott's extreme inconsistency anymore. Don't let the door hit ya on the way out, Brian. The Flyers can, and should try to do better.

[King Knut]

3 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Sure a 1st rounder you would expect more out of.

 

However we have the benefit of hindsight and projecting guys is hard.

 

You hit and miss.

 

And he was a Holmgren pick.

 

He struck gold with Ghost in the 3rd and not so much with Scott in the 1st. It happens.

 

That stuff's always hard to pin down.  Imagine being a Rangers fan knowing your team drafted Bobby Sanguinetti over Claude Giroux?

 

You win some, you lose some.  

 

Homer walked away with Carter and Richards in the same first round which was an amazing draft year BTW.  He did well in spite of passing on Dustin Brown Zach Parise and Ryan Getlaf.  

[King Knut]

31 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

I MIGHT sign Neuvirth but I want no part of Elliott's extreme inconsistency anymore. Don't let the door hit ya on the way out, Brian. The Flyers can, and should try to do better.

 

I'm very confused by this.  

1st off, both are under contract, so they're both coming back unless Hextall Waives or trades them.  He could feasibly trade Elliott to someone who needs an experienced backup, but I highly doubt anyone's taking a flyer on Neuvy at this point.

 

2nd, Elliott wasn't at all bad this year.  If his ugly ass performance in the playoffs leaves a bad taste in your mouth, I don't disagree, but please keep in mind the dude had abdominal/core surgery and played exactly 2 games before the playoffs began.  If you've ever played in net, you know that your core is probably the part of you that's going to hinder your performance the most if not up to par.  He shouldn't have been out there at all, but he kind of had to be because Mrazek was so god awful.

 

3rd, It almost doesn't matter who the Flyers goalie is... if Hextall can't reign in Hakstol on how and when he starts them, then there's no hope of things getting better any time soon.  We all marvel at Neuvy's absurd injury history, or complain that Elliott is too old, but Hakstol so completely misuses these guys that it's not even funny.  A large portion of it isn't even the games, it's actually practice that takes the abusive toll.  

 

For fun, I'll suggest that they keep Neuvy and just carry one extra skater and 2 spare goalies on the 23 man roster so They can Practice with Lyon and Neuvy and give Elliott and Stolarz a friggin'  break.  

 

There's almost no scenario in which the Flyers acquire a goalie this off season, but I agree that it wouldn't be a bad idea.  The problem is in order to do so they're going to have to eat a lot of salary or ship out guys they might want to hang around.  

 

If it's me, I'd see who would take Elliott or Neuvy for empty late round picks or whatever and try to sign Bernier.  I wanted no part of Bernier last off season, but this year I'll take him.  

 

Ralistically, I'd run with the Bernier type or Elliott in tandem with Stolarz for the Flyers and have Lyon splitting time with Carter Hart in the AHL.  If it's me, if you can trade Neuvy to give him a shot at NHL minutes, fantastic, but if not, I'd waive him and then waive him again and play him in Reading or Portland.  It's just not realistic to keep him on the NHL roster any more and it's time to stop screwing around with sub par players on the roster just because they're vets or whatever B.S. they want to feed us.  

 

Neuvy will get his money either way and if he doesn't want to play in the ECHL, he can go play in Europe someplace.

[King Knut]

1 hour ago, off_the_post said:

Well, I need to weigh in.  Mostly due to the fact the Flyers are starting to emerge out of the bad contract purgatory. As many pointed out we have Read, Filp, Oduya, and Manning all coming off contract.  I am actually looking forward to this offseason as Hexy finally has an opportunity to do something.  With a couple of high end free agents available it will be interesting.   

 

Personally I would take a shot at Carlson.  However a large contract for him could raise a lot of eyebrows internally.  On the free agent market he would definitely be signed for more than Ghost ($4.5M and IMHO a great contract BTW) and probably somewhere in the range of what Provocop should get. I could see Provorov getting extended this summer.

 

The goalie situation is the most interesting simply since we have two goalies under contract who both are not able to be a true starter and with two AHL goalies who are not top end prospects but are both RFA.  I might be in the minority here but I would go with the same two NHL goalies for next year and have them both come off contract in summer 2019.  I just don't see many viable alternatives that would be considered a definite upgrade without having to give up more assets than I'd be willing to give up.  With both NHL goalies making a total of $5.25M next year the cost is commensurate with results.  That said I would not be heartbroken at all if one were traded for a mid/late round pick.

 

To me 2018/19 will be another year much like this past one unless we bring in a big free agent. We need to just accept that this team will likely be a bubble play off team unless guys like Patrick and Sanheim take it to the next level - which is not totally out of the question. 

 

Is it October yet?

 

 

I like the idea of going for Carlson, but the way he's piling up points, we'd better hope the Penguins can shut him down or he's going to cost a LOT of money.  

 

The larger problem with Carlson is that even WITHOUT him, the Flyers have too many D men next year and I really really REALLY do NOT want to see them lose Morin without giving him an actual legit fair shot.  I really feel strongly about Morin.  I feel about him the way I did about Couturier.  I don't think we've even really glimpsed how good he can be yet.  No, I don't think he's going to be Pronger good just  because he's tall, but I do think his particular skill set is much more well suited for the NHL than the AHL and it also happens to fill a lot of what the Flyers have been missing.  

 

Were it not for his stupidity regarding whatever his injury has been this year, I believe he would have finished the year on the Flyers and been MUCH MUCH better than Gudas or Manning by the end.

 

MacDonald isn't going anywhere, not the least because god help me, he actually played very very well down the stretch and in the playoffs.  

 

Ghost and Provo are obviously your top pairing going forward.  So that leaves three spots currently held by Sanheim, Hagg and Gudas.  We know how Hakstol is with rookies, so Morin's going to have his work cut out for him... BUT because of the contract log jam combined with Hextall's caution with rookies combined with his injury this year, Morin will not be waiver exempt this year and if you try to slide this kid through waivers he's going to be beating you with another team before you can blink.

 

Long story short, in my mind Radko Judas is already gone.  he's your 7th man next year unless you can trade him.  If you can trade him, then hot damn, sign a Carlson and split minutes between Hagg and Morin with Myers doing the puck moving injury call up work if necessary because Oh yeah, he's knocking on the door now as well.  

 

It's a good problem to have, but this is where Hextall's caution over recent years has snuckered him a little bit.  He still doesn't really know what he has in these kids and it's now time for him to decide to either make a move or commit to them.  He can't kick the can with Morin anymore, and if he trades him now, I may never forgive Hextall.  

 

 

 

 

[murraycraven]

A ton of good chatter in this post...

 

I always try to take a day or two break after the season to marinate on the season and the playoffs.  The team is on the upswing but we are still 3 years away from contending as I see it.   Hopefully Hart pans out to be the next Carey Price but he is still a few years away.  I don't see Frost making the roster for another two years either.   

 

I think @brelic made an excellent point:  by just adding prospects with more talent does not equate to more wins or a better team next year.   They are going to be young which is great but it does not automatically translate to the team being better next year.  

 

The bonus to the off-season (hopefully): losing Manning, Read and Filp.   No way would I sign any of the UFAs.  

 

Goaltending:  somehow / some way this needs to be addressed.   Elliott is no spring chicken and can't be relied on to play the typical starts that a "starting goalie" would command.   If you can trade Neuvy be my guest.  Although, I have a sneaking suspicion he will get hurt body surfing at the Jersey Shore this summer and will be out for next season.  I don't think bringing up Lyon or Stolarz to be the "1B" is a sound plan for next year.   Expect the defense to be younger and make more mistakes.   

 

This marks an interesting off-season for Ronald.  My bet is that he takes the same cautious approach to this off-season.   I would be shocked if there were any major moves to accelerate the plan.   I think Ron and management are fine to just let this play out in due time.   I really don't see him deviating from the plan at this point.  

 

Positives:  Couts was spectacular this year, G was great, Jake was putting up points at rapid rate.  Patrick, Provy and TK are the future and there is so much to be excited with the kids.   McDud, yes that McDud, I thought played a really good series and was one of the better defensemen.  

 

Negatives:  Obviously goaltending is still an issue just like every other year.  I am not confident Elliott or Neuvy can play a full season as the 1a and 1b.   There has to be a way to upgrade that position to at least get serviceable play.  Gudas is a disaster and I think it is time to part ways and trade him.   Maybe he improves with a new partner next year but I would be fine if he was traded.   I also thought Ghost was terrible in the playoffs and expect him to play better next time they get into the playoffs.  Even though Jake and G were fantastic this year they were shut down in the playoffs.   Some of it could be from teams trying to shut them down but at 8+M per year I expect them to perform when it matters most.  Simmonds was terrible but I think he is playing with an injury.  It will be interesting to see what Ronald does in the next year regarding Simmer.

 

Unknowns:  I am still really unsure of Hak.   As much as I dislike him I really do not see him going anywhere but I think Lappy certainly needs to relieved of his duties.   I hope that Hak improves but I have not seen much to make me feel all that confident.  The constant seems to be playing the older vets when there is better talent in the press box.   Sometimes I think he overthinks the lineups but there are far too many nights that he is not putting the best roster on the ice.  Additionally, there are far too many players getting increased ice time when they should be seeing decreased ice time - Gudas, Manning, Filp, etc...

 

In the end I think they performed as expected - a bubble team.  Kudos for them making the playoffs after a 10 game losing streak.  Barring any trades this off-season I think it will be the same next year.  

 

 

[mkscrewy]

7 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

 

Long story short, in my mind BAD-KORadko Judas is already gone.  he's your 7th man next year unless you can trade him.  If you can trade him, then hot damn, sign a Carlson and split minutes between Hagg and Morin with Myers doing the puck moving injury call up work if necessary because Oh yeah, he's knocking on the door now as well.