2017-18 Season Post Mortem

[Howie58]

Greetings:

 

The season is over.  I am glad we made it to the playoffs.  We took the Penguins to six games (about what I and probably others felt would happen) and showed grit, but also looked vastly inferior in offensive and defensive ability.  

 

Big picture, I waver in my view of the team and its prospects.  Before posting, I did some quick math.  In the 11 years before the 2004-05 strike and the 11 after (not including the strike shortened 12-13 year.  In the first 11, we averaged 95 points.  In current history, we average 92. So, on face we seem to have roughly similar point totals annually in the "old" and "new" NHL.  I was surprised by this--I've often thought we haven't gotten the knack of the speed/skill need in this game. But in terms of points during the regular season, we seem to be virtually equal.  That said, we have not won a playoff series in six years.  We went six years without making the playoffs (1989-90 through 1994-95), which is pretty amazing and awful, but we have not made the playoffs in three of the past six year either.  Comparing the pre-2004 and post 2004 "dark ages" may be tough given the salary cap and rule changes. But you could argue that the past six years are almost as dark as the 1989-2005 stretch given the franchise's history and stability of ownership. The Flyers are not my backyard Panthers in terms of ownership/management shifts.   

 

Then I saw an interesting contradiction.  In terms of regular season winning percentage, we are number 2 historically (Vegas is the new number 1 after its inaugural season but that is an unfair trial in my book, with Montreal being the top); we are at .576.  On the other hand, in playoffs, we are 11th at 0.513.  In so many words, we seem to be a steady regular season producer, but when it really counts, we aren't that great.  Making it to the playoffs in the NHL is not such a big deal; what you do once you get there is the big enchilada.  Our performance seems to drop pretty badly once we make it.  That might be something fans and management examine as an indicator of how we stack up relative to peers.

 

Coming down from the 30,000 foot view, I thought this piece was quite good:

 

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2018/4/20/17259260/philadelphia-flyers-nhl-ron-hextall-heads-must-roll-fire-hakstol

 

I am unsure about Hakstol, but given our PP, PK, and D performance, new assistants are in order.  

 

In my mind, Hextall is a contradiction.  His draft picks seem to be quite good.  On the other hand, his "depth" additions like Weise, or his inability or unwillingness to make some end-of-season pick ups that might help doesn't add luster. Granted--he is committed to the future.  But as the article above notes, he may need to think shorter term, particularly if the draft picks don't pan out as planned.

 

My big concern is the team's ability to play defense by attacking.  I agree with some assessments that in this league, defense as shot suppression/blocking is not so important.  Keeping attackers out of your zone--and staying in their zone--is critical.  The skill level of many forwards is such that their shooting from within 15-20 feet has to be considered a mortal threat.  Today--I could barely follow Pittsburgh's onslaught; some of their goals were split second.  Gaentzel and Crosby can do that.  

 

I look at teams like Columbus, Vegas, Pitt, and Washington and see "swarm attacks" that overwhelm the D.  I have never seen a Flyers team do that. I think our mobility has improved in recent years.  But our offense is not potent. This year's frequent "outshoot but underscore" speaks to that issue.  

 

So, this wasn't a bad season.  And we made the playoffs.  But as we've seen in our history, we didn't do much once we were there.  I am not getting any younger. Will I ever see a truly elite Flyers team that can challenge for the Cup for a half decade stretch?  This year's outcome leaves me sitting on the fence.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AlaskaFlyerFan]

@Howie58 ,

 

Nice post.  Lots of questions to be answered this off season.   The good news is the team is still quite young and IIMHO trending upward.  Hopefully, the highly touted draft picks will pan out. Time will tell.

[Howie58]

7 minutes ago, AlaskaFlyerFan said:

Time will tell

Yes, that is the only real test.  I said it yesterday and say it again, I think Hakstol is probably on a one-year leash.  The GM has two.  How he deals with this off-season and some of the shorter-team needs will be interesting to say the least.

[brelic]

Great points, @Howie58

 

For me, the 1st round was hard to watch. Pittsburgh was the worst possible matchup for the Flyers not only because they are two-time Cup defending champions, but because they demolished the Flyers all season... so why would we expect anything different?

 

Turns out it was more of the same. 

 

Even in the wins, it never felt like the Flyers were in control. They were desperately hanging on, hoping the loose wheel nuts would hold just a bit longer.

 

Provorov's post-game interview was tough to watch him hold back tears. He took the loss on his shoulders, and the best quote was when he was asked if there was a question he would play in this game or not - "As long as my arm was still attached to me, I was going to play." This kid gets it and is a fierce competitor.

 

Overall, their season was a success.

 

I'm not sure what else there is to say that hasn't been said already. 

 

I feel this is Hextall's most important off-season to date, and one in which we should be seeing more significant moves being made (trades, draft moves, signings). This includes using some of the assets (prospects / picks) we've accumulated to fill holes.

 

Should be a really interesting summer. 

 

 

 

 

[Digityman]

4 minutes ago, brelic said:

I feel this is Hextall's most important off-season to date, and one in which we should be seeing more significant moves being made (trades, draft moves, signings). This includes using some of the assets (prospects / picks) we've accumulated to fill holes.

 

Agree with this 100%.  He has the picks and the prospects.  This is the year that Hextall has the chance to put his stamp on the team and mold it into what he sees as the core team that will challenge for the cup in the next 2-4 years.   That's going to mean some very hard choices.   I believe he has the pieces available to him.  It's time to cut the dead weight.

 

Great Trade Value - 

Simmonds - He was a non-factor and it's time to say goodbye to Simmonds.  His value will literally never be higher than it is today.

Voracek - The disappearing act in the playoffs I fear will continue year after year.  Add to that his salary and it's just not worth it to keep him around.  Get what you can at equal value.

 

Let walk/Buyout/AHL/Trade package - Filppula, Lehtera, Weal, Read, Laughton, Weise, Gudas, Manning

 

That leaves a lot of holes to fill.

Can Hextall get two top 6 wingers from all the pieces above? 

Does Frost make the big club next year?  

 

Giroux - Couturier - TK

? - Patrick - ?

Lindblom  - Frost -  Aube-Kubel

Vorobyev - Vecchonione - Leier  

 

Provorov - Ghost

Hagg - Sanhiem

Morin - ?

 

Gonna be a busy summer.  One that will define Hextall I think.

[Poulin20]

11 minutes ago, brelic said:

Great points, @Howie58

 

For me, the 1st round was hard to watch. Pittsburgh was the worst possible matchup for the Flyers not only because they are two-time Cup defending champions, but because they demolished the Flyers all season... so why would we expect anything different?

 

Turns out it was more of the same. 

 

Even in the wins, it never felt like the Flyers were in control. They were desperately hanging on, hoping the loose wheel nuts would hold just a bit longer.

 

Provorov's post-game interview was tough to watch him hold back tears. He took the loss on his shoulders, and the best quote was when he was asked if there was a question he would play in this game or not - "As long as my arm was still attached to me, I was going to play." This kid gets it and is a fierce competitor.

 

Overall, their season was a success.

 

I'm not sure what else there is to say that hasn't been said already. 

 

I feel this is Hextall's most important off-season to date, and one in which we should be seeing more significant moves being made (trades, draft moves, signings). This includes using some of the assets (prospects / picks) we've accumulated to fill holes.

 

Should be a really interesting summer. 

 

 

 

 

 

Agree!  I said the same thing from the beginning.  I wanted no parts of the Pens as the games I attended in the regular season with them we HORRIBLE and not even competitive.  This was equally horrible to watch.  Why should be believe that we were going to beat them in the playoffs when things get turned up a notch?  Any other matchup would have been better and more entertaining.  As you noted in the 2 games we won it took a lot of bounces and luck and for the Pens to relax a bit.

 

So glad we have Provy and so glad we are getting rid of Read, Filppula, and Manning.  If we could buy out a couple more of our anchors that would be great too.  Hexy has cap space to land a key free agent or 2.  Who he replaces are current dead wood with is key.  If he screws this up with a few more Weise like signings we will go backwards in our development for sure.

 

I also consider this season a success because we scored 10 more points than last year, made the playoffs and can see the very beginnings of what the kids that we drafted and developed can bring.  

 

[brelic]

37 minutes ago, Digityman said:

 

Agree with this 100%.  He has the picks and the prospects.  This is the year that Hextall has the chance to put his stamp on the team and mold it into what he sees as the core team that will challenge for the cup in the next 2-4 years.   That's going to mean some very hard choices.   I believe he has the pieces available to him.  It's time to cut the dead weight.

 

Great Trade Value - 

Simmonds - He was a non-factor and it's time to say goodbye to Simmonds.  His value will literally never be higher than it is today.

Voracek - The disappearing act in the playoffs I fear will continue year after year.  Add to that his salary and it's just not worth it to keep him around.  Get what you can at equal value.

 

Let walk/Buyout/AHL/Trade package - Filppula, Lehtera, Weal, Read, Laughton, Weise, Gudas, Manning

 

That leaves a lot of holes to fill.

Can Hextall get two top 6 wingers from all the pieces above? 

Does Frost make the big club next year?  

 

Giroux - Couturier - TK

? - Patrick - ?

Lindblom  - Frost -  Aube-Kubel

Vorobyev - Vecchonione - Leier  

 

Provorov - Ghost

Hagg - Sanhiem

Morin - ?

 

Gonna be a busy summer.  One that will define Hextall I think.

 

I think trading away ONE of Simmonds or Voracek, but not both. We need more talent, not less. And that would lessen the burden on guys like Jake, for example.

 

I did some quick math on capfriendly, and signing JT @ $9.5M and Kane @ $6.5M can absolutely work if a few trades are made. 

 

Is it a smart idea? I don't know.. 

 

Giroux/Tavares/Konecny

Kane/Patrick/Voracek

Lindblom/Couturier/Aube-Kubel

Raffl/Laughton/Lehtera

Weise

 

Gone are UFAs Filppula and Read. And traded are Simmonds and Weal. Maybe buy out Weise or Lehtera.

 

On defense - 

 

Provorov/Carlson

Ghost/Morin

Sanheim/MacDonald

Hagg or Myers

 

Gone is UFA Manning. Traded is Gudas.

 

ANd goalies...

 

Elliott / Stolarz

 

Trade Neuvirth. Let Mrazek walk or trade his rights for a late round pick.

 

Our roster probably won't look anything close to this, but hey, it's the first day of the offseason

 

 

 

[elmatus]

14 minutes ago, brelic said:

I did some quick math on capfriendly, and signing JT @ $9.5M and Kane @ $6.5M can absolutely work if a few trades are made. 

 

I fully expect the Sharks will find a way to keep Kane. He's exactly what they need going forward. They'll do everything they can to keep him. As far as Tavares goes, I would love to see him in an O&B jersey. I just don't think it's possible. He'd want too much term for one thing, and we already have Giroux and Voracek in that boat. It just seems like a recipe for major issues in the future.

 

That said, while adding those two would be a tremendous boost to our offense, I'm not convinced it would make up for our defensive and especially goaltending shortcomings. It would give us a solid third line for the first time in forever, which is obviously a huge benefit, but neither Tavares nor Kane are apt to don goalie gear.

 

It would be great for next season, but it seems highly unlikely to me.

[Digityman]

52 minutes ago, brelic said:

Giroux/Tavares/Konecny

Kane/Patrick/Voracek

Lindblom/Couturier/Aube-Kubel

Raffl/Laughton/Lehtera

 

Provorov/Carlson

Ghost/Morin

Sanheim/MacDonald

Hagg or Myers

 

If Tavares wouldn't ask for more than 4/5 years, I like the looks of this. 

I like Kane honestly.  Always have.  

 

IF that lineup happened, in my mind that's a team that could challenge for the cup.

 

Too bad they would still need a goalie. 

[ruxpin]

2 hours ago, Digityman said:

Great Trade Value - 

Simmonds - He was a non-factor and it's time to say goodbye to Simmonds.  His value will literally never be higher than it is today.

Voracek - The disappearing act in the playoffs I fear will continue year after year.  Add to that his salary and it's just not worth it to keep him around.  Get what you can at equal value.

 

1 hour ago, brelic said:

 

I think trading away ONE of Simmonds or Voracek, but not both. We need more talent, not less. And that would lessen the burden on guys like Jake, for example.

 

I did some quick math on capfriendly, and signing JT @ $9.5M and Kane @ $6.5M can absolutely work if a few trades are made. 

 

Is it a smart idea? I don't know.. 

 

Giroux/Tavares/Konecny

Kane/Patrick/Voracek

Lindblom/Couturier/Aube-Kubel

Raffl/Laughton/Lehtera

Weise

 

Gone are UFAs Filppula and Read. And traded are Simmonds and Weal. Maybe buy out Weise or Lehtera.

 

On defense - 

 

Provorov/Carlson

Ghost/Morin

Sanheim/MacDonald

Hagg or Myers

 

Gone is UFA Manning. Traded is Gudas.

 

ANd goalies...

 

Elliott / Stolarz

 

Trade Neuvirth. Let Mrazek walk or trade his rights for a late round pick.

 

Our roster probably won't look anything close to this, but hey, it's the first day of the offseason

 

 

 

 

A lot to unpack here and it's just message board fun....

 

My comment on Simmonds/Voracek.      I think Voracek is dumb as a rock and have expounded upon that elsewhere.  But, like I've also said, it's hard to argue with his production.   The odd thing about him is he gets 85 points but is only +10.  The players around him in point production (Giroux +28 to match his uni number, and Couts at +34) seem to make their production hold up for more value.   I really believe Simmonds was injury.  He never looked right when he came back (way too soon) and hasn't since.   Keep in mind he was also on a line with Filppula and carousel du jour all year long.     That said, if his role is going to be 3rd line again next year, maybe this is the summer to move him.  He makes no sense to me on the 3rd line.   If we're holding +10 against Voracek, how about a whopping -16 for Simmonds  on almost 40 less points!    

 

I'd be really careful with the signings being talked about.   Especially the NHL '95 moves that would include all of Tavares, Kane, and Carlson (it IS fun to play this game, though).   I highlighted a bunch of players in my quote of Brelic that would need pay raises -- probably significant ones -- in the next 3 years (3 so I can include Patrick and Lindblom).   It's nice we're losing Filppula and Read.  That does help us.   And we lose Lehtera next year.    So, maybe one from the list is good, so pick one.    In order (for me), Carlson, Kane,  then Tavares.    This isn't about any dislike of Tavares or anything (I actually like him better than Kane in strict terms of talent and character) but about bang for buck that addresses holes.     But since I'm going for bang/buck and holes [pauses for easy jokes], I'm throwing coin at a better goaltending bridge.   We've all discussed that best case scenario is that Sandstrom is maybe ready for 2019-20.   Hart no earlier than 2020-21, I think.   So, a free agent signing or trade for goalie with a significant contract that goes at least through 2019-20 would be ideal.   This team even as constructed is probably vastly different with better results with a better goalie.   We're not Cup contenders this year with a better goalie, but we went six games and scored 5 goals in the clincher.  If you don't have such morale-killing horrible goaltending early in the series maybe you score more or stay in the games.   And if you have a decent goalie in game 6 maybe 5 goals is the deal-sealer it should be.

 

So, if I have a bunch of money from those leaving, I go goalie first and foremost.  Then I go top 6 winger and cheaply (but more prudently) shore up the bottom 6.   But I'm prudent with it so I can afford to resign my kids.

 

Which brings me back to my reason why I might actually be more inclined to move Voracek than Simmonds if I'm moving either.   First, Simmonds.   I'd be inclined to go ahead and see what I can get this summer.  Next year's trade deadline may be too late since Simmonds would be a hard person to move at the deadline in terms of team morale and messaging if they're battling for playoff berth or positioning.   Kind of like Armstong trading Statsny this year.    And, of course, they get nothing for him if they wait after that.   So now might be the time.  And that would clear $4M next year (minus whatever might come back).   With everyone that is leaving, I don't know if we need that space NEXT year, which is all that gets us (I mean that's all it changes).   It would certainly be nice if they're going to make some kind of splash, though.  I think we'd get a decent return because I'm willing to bet there's more than a handful of GMs in the league that would operate under the theory that this year was an aberration and due to injury (and role).

 

But if we move Voracek, we get out of 6 years of $8.25M cap.   That goes a long way -- with the others coming off -- toward doing some necessary shopping and also gets us out of what will be an absurd albatross by the time it's over.   He'll only be 34 when it ends, so I'm not really concerned about that part, but he's already stupid.   If his production goes down, he doesn't compensate for his stupidity.

 

I'm not in a hurry to move either just now, though I get some of the urgency to move Simmonds if the plan is not to resign him.   But if I'm moving one or the other, I think we get more long-term AND near-term benefit from Voracek.

 

No matter who we move, my top priority is a 2-3 year contract with a decent goalie.  Or I'm trading one of Simmonds or Voracek in a package that brings such a goalie back in the package.

[MaineFlyFan]

2 hours ago, Poulin20 said:

As you noted in the 2 games we won it took a lot of bounces and luck and for the Pens to relax a bit.

 

Ya know...that does put things in perspective a bit....

 

We won two games....barely....but it felt better than that somehow!....I mean after game one, every win was like Christmas!

[brelic]

20 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Especially the NHL '95 moves that would include all of Tavares, Kane, and Carlson (it IS fun to play this game, though). 

 

It's ok. I'm playing the special Anniversary Edition: Holmgren Universe and the cap is OFF.

 

Seriously, though, I do agree that it would smell like the old regime to go out and sign all these guys. I was just throwing some stuff out there. 

 

I think if he could sign one of Tavares, Karlsson, or Carlson, it would be a franchise-changing move. Signing Tavares might force us to trade away some talent that we'd regret (Frost comes to mind) because Couturier, Patrick, and Tavares would be your top 3 centers for at least the next 5 years.

 

So in that sense, (C/K)arls(s)on would be a smarter move, and it would allow Hextall to leverage some of the other young defensemen into better forward or goalie parts. Guys like Hagg, Morin, Myers, maybe even Sanheim could be traded to fill other holes. I know it wouldn't be a popular move to most fans, and I would think Hextall would only use them in a trade that makes sense for the long term.

 

 

[Lindbergh31]

2 hours ago, brelic said:

 

I think trading away ONE of Simmonds or Voracek, but not both. We need more talent, not less. And that would lessen the burden on guys like Jake, for example.

 

I did some quick math on capfriendly, and signing JT @ $9.5M and Kane @ $6.5M can absolutely work if a few trades are made. 

 

Is it a smart idea? I don't know.. 

 

Giroux/Tavares/Konecny

Kane/Patrick/Voracek

Lindblom/Couturier/Aube-Kubel

Raffl/Laughton/Lehtera

Weise

 

Gone are UFAs Filppula and Read. And traded are Simmonds and Weal. Maybe buy out Weise or Lehtera.

 

On defense - 

 

Provorov/Carlson

Ghost/Morin

Sanheim/MacDonald

Hagg or Myers

 

Gone is UFA Manning. Traded is Gudas.

 

ANd goalies...

 

Elliott / Stolarz

 

Trade Neuvirth. Let Mrazek walk or trade his rights for a late round pick.

 

Our roster probably won't look anything close to this, but hey, it's the first day of the offseason

 

 

 

The only you can get Taveras is if Voracek is traded which I don't see happening. I was checking to see what UFA goalies are out there and here's some of them (with their age in brackets)--Cam Ward (34), Jonathan Bernier (29), Antti Niemi (34), Jaraslav Halak (33) and Carter Hutton (32). Hexie has to get rid of Neuvirth.

[King Knut]

23 minutes ago, brelic said:

 

It's ok. I'm playing the special Anniversary Edition: Holmgren Universe and the cap is OFF.

 

Seriously, though, I do agree that it would smell like the old regime to go out and sign all these guys. I was just throwing some stuff out there. 

 

I think if he could sign one of Tavares, Karlsson, or Carlson, it would be a franchise-changing move. Signing Tavares might force us to trade away some talent that we'd regret (Frost comes to mind) because Couturier, Patrick, and Tavares would be your top 3 centers for at least the next 5 years.

 

So in that sense, (C/K)arls(s)on would be a smarter move, and it would allow Hextall to leverage some of the other young defensemen into better forward or goalie parts. Guys like Hagg, Morin, Myers, maybe even Sanheim could be traded to fill other holes. I know it wouldn't be a popular move to most fans, and I would think Hextall would only use them in a trade that makes sense for the long term.

 

 

 

I wouldn't go near Karlsson with a $10million pole.  

 

He may be the best player in the world at his position, but that comes at a premium that is going to hinder the team for too long.  We need to have learned these lessons.  

 

People talk about Depth being this team's problem, but it kinda had the depth it needed.  That depth just didn't show up for whatever reason.  The third line especially.  Filppula, Simmonds and Weal should simply straight up NOT have had the terrible seasons they did.  That was unexpected.  FIlppula, Simmonds, Weal really SHOULD have been a pretty decent third line.  Instead, they put up almost no points and hemorrhaged goals like no one's business.  

 

Tavares makes a LOT of sense because this team needs a 3C desperately.  The problem is, Tavares isn't a 3C.  He's a 1C.  Will he be cool being the 3C because I'm not cool with breaking up Lindblom and Patrick at this point.  You could sign him and put him with Giroux and have something impressive as hell, but I think putting him on the 3rd line to help Simmer and Weal/whoever find their games will benefit the team more so that could work... only They'll likely only need a 3C for a year or two... and a year or two from now they're going to need Wings for that third line.  IN fact, I think they need those wings right now.

 

But I'm not sure you need him at all.  I have felt all year that Vecchione (or if injured, Vorobyov) should have been up with the team as the 4C.  I don't know why Filppula wasn't moved to wing long long ago, but now we don't have to worry about it.  

 

If Hextall can sign a legit decent 3C to help Simmer regain some form, then that's fine... but I wouldn't sign anyone that's going to make giving Frost his shot in a year or so from now harder to make happen and if that means Laughton is your 3C, worse things could happen.

 

I'd sooner focus on the the 3rd line wingers to be honest.  Raffl is great and the third line is idea for him IMHO, but this team has many viable young Centers in it's system. It does not have a ton of viable wingers.  Their best hope on wing is for one of the bazillion centers to shift.  Simmer had a very very bad year for him.  Something is very wrong with him as he had absolutely no next gear and in fact as the urgency grew, he only had lower and lower gears down the stretch and in the playoffs.  Unless he can turn around and have an AMAZING season, there will be little need to worry  about him in this team's future plans.  

 

Allison, Strome, Abe Kubel and a few others will all make a push next spring.  Strome will go back to Juniors to work on a few things, I believe, Allison has a shot if he can skate with them.  Lots of people are talking about Abe Kubel again, but I'm just not buying it. 

 

We're all focusing on the holes we know we need to improve, but Hexy's been playing chess for 4 years now and he's at least two moves ahead of us on most of the holes the team has now.  He's not going to sign a FA for a position they need now, he's going to sign one for what they'll need in two years and that's 2 third line wingers IMHO.  

 

He's not going to need a Center, he's not going to need any D men (he's likely going to have too many) and unless the hockey gods turn out to be complete A-Holes (okay, we already know they are but...) He probably won't need a goalie either.  

 

If Raffl and Laughton can be on your 4th line with a shifted Vecchione or Vorobyov, then I think that suggests you have the depth you've so desperately needed.  

 

 

 

[King Knut]

9 minutes ago, Lindbergh31 said:

The only you can get Taveras is if Voracek is traded which I don't see happening. I was checking to see what UFA goalies are out there and here's some of them (with their age in brackets)--Cam Ward (34), Jonathan Bernier (29), Antti Niemi (34), Jaraslav Halak (33) and Carter Hutton (32). Hexie has to get rid of Neuvirth.

 

Hextall can sign a UFA goalie but of those Bernier is the only one I'd bother with... and if you sign him, you have to unload or release one or both of Stolarz and Lyon. 

 

In my idea situation, Elliott and Stolarz are 1 and 2 next year with Lyon backing up Hart on the Phantoms.  

But Sandstrom is still in the mix and that guy has to either make the Flyers or he heads back to Sweden.  

 

Neuvirth will have to be waived or LTIR'd somehow (at this point, is anyone going to question that status for him) regardless of what they do.  There's simply no room for him and they just can't risk a roster spot on him.   It's a bummer for him, but I think Reading or Portland might be the best place for him.  He'd likely retire and go play in Europe instead... but who knows.

 

I don't think they need to trade Jake to get Tavares.  I've done the math in previous posts over the course of the season, but they'll literally be gaining something like $30 million in cap space over the next two seasons (depending on how they handle A Mac and Gudas who should both become unnecessary soon enough).

 

They can sign Tavares if they really want to and fill out the roster with guys they already have under contract.  None one they have to resign right now looks like he should be getting a big raise.

 

That changes at the end of next season, but they get a LOT of money off the books after next season too.  

 

THe larger issue with Tavares is that they don't need a Center.  Or rather they need a center, but they have a bunch of Centers in the system.  They don't have wings and Tavares is going to sign someplace as a 1C because that's the role that will earn him the most money. 

 

 

[Howie58]

36 minutes ago, Lindbergh31 said:

Hexie has to get rid of Neuvirth.

Yeah; he may be a "playoff specialist" of sorts but his brittleness and inconsistency during the regular season have "auf wiedersehen" written all over them.  I think he is bought out.  Weise would be another candidate. I have to wonder if Elliott is stated as the starter but effectively demoted if someone else is brought in or up. Skill aside, he may be deteriorating rapidly and it appears he really is a poor playoff goalie. 

[King Knut]

15 hours ago, Howie58 said:

 

 

I am unsure about Hakstol, but given our PP, PK, and D performance, new assistants are in order.  

 

In my mind, Hextall is a contradiction.  His draft picks seem to be quite good.  On the other hand, his "depth" additions like Weise, or his inability or unwillingness to make some end-of-season pick ups that might help doesn't add luster. Granted--he is committed to the future.  But as the article above notes, he may need to think shorter term, particularly if the draft picks don't pan out as planned.

 

My big concern is the team's ability to play defense by attacking.  I agree with some assessments that in this league, defense as shot suppression/blocking is not so important.  Keeping attackers out of your zone--and staying in their zone--is critical.  The skill level of many forwards is such that their shooting from within 15-20 feet has to be considered a mortal threat.  Today--I could barely follow Pittsburgh's onslaught; some of their goals were split second.  Gaentzel and Crosby can do that.  

 

I look at teams like Columbus, Vegas, Pitt, and Washington and see "swarm attacks" that overwhelm the D.  I have never seen a Flyers team do that. I think our mobility has improved in recent years.  But our offense is not potent. This year's frequent "outshoot but underscore" speaks to that issue.  

 

So, this wasn't a bad season.  And we made the playoffs.  But as we've seen in our history, we didn't do much once we were there.  I am not getting any younger. Will I ever see a truly elite Flyers team that can challenge for the Cup for a half decade stretch?  This year's outcome leaves me sitting on the fence.  

 

 

-The thing about the Assistants isn't just that the special teams were abysmal (They were.  PP1 is good because Giroux and Ghost are special, the system is atrocious).  

 

When you look at the defense, those D men almost always do exactly the opposite of what they need to do.  The most glaring example to me is 2-1's.  The Textbook way for a D man to handle a 2-1 is to take away the pass.  Make sure the puck carrier can't thread to the trailer.  Leave the goalie with a clear view of the shooter and don't abandon him completely.  Our D men consistently screen their goalie by attacking the puck carrier, who consistently slides it right by them to a wide open trailer who has the goalie moving laterally and mostly an open net to shoot at.  EVERY TIME.  How often do you give up 2-1"s?  (it actually cost them the game yesterday, but I digress) it's a symptom of a larger problem which is that THIS TEAM HAS NO IDEA HOW TO PLAY DEFENSE.  It has several skilled defenders who sometimes look very good in spite of their situation.   But the coaching has put them in a position to fail for several years now and that HAS GOT TO CHANGE.   How many times did I watch Manning or AMAC  abandon a wide open forward in order to cover the man coming in behind him?  A LOT.  This essentially leaves whoever else he's with alone with a 2-1 right in front of his goalie.  It's insane, but it happens a LOT.

 

-The attacking thing is a thing, you're right.  The Flyers offense likes to play a very controlled slowed down game. And Hakstol likes to give big minutes to defensively competent guys like Raffl and Lehtera when the chips are down... but you're absolutely right... the best way to keep them from scoring in your own end is to make sure the puck stays in their end as much as you can.  

 

This is why Laughton/Raffl/Leier was such an amazingly effective line at the beginning of the year.  THey never scored, but damn, it was almost impossible to score on them because you never had the puck and they were always in your zone.  

 

-IF THEY CAN replace lappy and murphy with better D-Minds, I'd b e more okay with Hakstol.  I'm not in love with Dilly either, but that's not really relevant.  

 

-However, the problem I have with Hakstol is that he doesn't seem to have any prayer of bolstering this team.  This team falls flat and crumbles when their backs are against the wall  because their coach is about as confidence bolstering as a limp noodle.  There's no fire there on the bench and that is important.  It's not easy being a player... you're hurt, your tired... you want to give up... and eventually if you're the only voice in your head telling you you can do it, you're going to get worn out.  

 

Whereas Hitchock seemed to yell at them and treat them like A holes, Laviolette seemed to get down in the trenches with them and make them feel like he was carrying them on his back as much as they were carrying themselves.  And that's what's missing most from Hakstol.  So you can replace his D coaches and you can have Konecny and Laughton attacking all the time, but it still may not be enough to make Hak the coach they need.  I think Hextal can safely cut bait on the dude by now.  

 

 

 

[Clarke2Leach]

I think the Flyers will probably take a step back next season in the standings, but I'm ok with that.  It's going to take awhile to flush the rest of the mediocre roster members out of the lineup.  I wouldn't sign any big name free agents for the reasons King Knut has already explained (we shouldn't spend huge dollars on positions that aren't a weakness).  

 

I would entertain trading Simmonds only because his contract is done at the end of next season.  That being said - his hit isn't that bad, so I'd only bite on that if the return was very solid.  I'd much rather have him than Evander Kane (unless he's grown up some).  The Flyers seem to short on tough, veteran leadership to allow Kane into the room.

 

I hope Hextall is patient and takes advantage of other teams that are too close to the cap - I think that's where the easier rewards are.

[brelic]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

 

I wouldn't go near Karlsson with a $10million pole.  

 

He may be the best player in the world at his position, but that comes at a premium that is going to hinder the team for too long.  We need to have learned these lessons.  

 

People talk about Depth being this team's problem, but it kinda had the depth it needed.  That depth just didn't show up for whatever reason.  The third line especially.  Filppula, Simmonds and Weal should simply straight up NOT have had the terrible seasons they did.  That was unexpected.  FIlppula, Simmonds, Weal really SHOULD have been a pretty decent third line.  Instead, they put up almost no points and hemorrhaged goals like no one's business.  

 

Tavares makes a LOT of sense because this team needs a 3C desperately.  The problem is, Tavares isn't a 3C.  He's a 1C.  Will he be cool being the 3C because I'm not cool with breaking up Lindblom and Patrick at this point.  You could sign him and put him with Giroux and have something impressive as hell, but I think putting him on the 3rd line to help Simmer and Weal/whoever find their games will benefit the team more so that could work... only They'll likely only need a 3C for a year or two... and a year or two from now they're going to need Wings for that third line.  IN fact, I think they need those wings right now.

 

But I'm not sure you need him at all.  I have felt all year that Vecchione (or if injured, Vorobyov) should have been up with the team as the 4C.  I don't know why Filppula wasn't moved to wing long long ago, but now we don't have to worry about it.  

 

If Hextall can sign a legit decent 3C to help Simmer regain some form, then that's fine... but I wouldn't sign anyone that's going to make giving Frost his shot in a year or so from now harder to make happen and if that means Laughton is your 3C, worse things could happen.

 

I'd sooner focus on the the 3rd line wingers to be honest.  Raffl is great and the third line is idea for him IMHO, but this team has many viable young Centers in it's system. It does not have a ton of viable wingers.  Their best hope on wing is for one of the bazillion centers to shift.  Simmer had a very very bad year for him.  Something is very wrong with him as he had absolutely no next gear and in fact as the urgency grew, he only had lower and lower gears down the stretch and in the playoffs.  Unless he can turn around and have an AMAZING season, there will be little need to worry  about him in this team's future plans.  

 

Allison, Strome, Abe Kubel and a few others will all make a push next spring.  Strome will go back to Juniors to work on a few things, I believe, Allison has a shot if he can skate with them.  Lots of people are talking about Abe Kubel again, but I'm just not buying it. 

 

We're all focusing on the holes we know we need to improve, but Hexy's been playing chess for 4 years now and he's at least two moves ahead of us on most of the holes the team has now.  He's not going to sign a FA for a position they need now, he's going to sign one for what they'll need in two years and that's 2 third line wingers IMHO.  

 

He's not going to need a Center, he's not going to need any D men (he's likely going to have too many) and unless the hockey gods turn out to be complete A-Holes (okay, we already know they are but...) He probably won't need a goalie either.  

 

If Raffl and Laughton can be on your 4th line with a shifted Vecchione or Vorobyov, then I think that suggests you have the depth you've so desperately needed.  

 

 

 

 

I mean, I don't disagree with your post. But I think expecting to build a championship caliber team solely from within will lead to disappointment. 

 

Can you name one Cup winning team that hasn't signed/acquired one or more bonafide top level players on their way to winning?

 

Maybe that time isn't now for the Flyers - in 3-4 years, things will be clearer in terms of absolute needs.

 

It just seems like 8 years+ is an awfully long rebuild. 

[brelic]

45 minutes ago, Clarke2Leach said:

I think the Flyers will probably take a step back next season in the standings, but I'm ok with that.  It's going to take awhile to flush the rest of the mediocre roster members out of the lineup.  I wouldn't sign any big name free agents for the reasons King Knut has already explained (we shouldn't spend huge dollars on positions that aren't a weakness).  

 

I would entertain trading Simmonds only because his contract is done at the end of next season.  That being said - his hit isn't that bad, so I'd only bite on that if the return was very solid.  I'd much rather have him than Evander Kane (unless he's grown up some).  The Flyers seem to short on tough, veteran leadership to allow Kane into the room.

 

I hope Hextall is patient and takes advantage of other teams that are too close to the cap - I think that's where the easier rewards are.

 

Again, I don't disagree with this approach, but I'm also starting to lean a bit more in the "enough with the magic beans, we need real beanstalks" camp. 

 

Frost might be awesome, just as easily as he can be a 3rd line center, tops. I know we'd like to believe he will be a top line player, but the odds are firmly against that. The same with Hart, and Allison, and Ratcliffe, and all those 'magic beans.'

 

Put another way, the odds of all our picks hitting and being special are supremely low. That's not negativity, that's statistics. 

 

So if Hextall sees an opportunity to acquire something tangible in the now that is young enough to be around for a while and absolutely makes our team better, it makes sense to explore it. 

 

EDITED to add a list of top CHL scorers over the years. There's a whole lot more "who???" than "oh, of course!"

 

[Howie58]

I agree with some that next year may bring a step backwards if we have lots of new moving parts.  And Bre is correct in assessing our youngins--not all will pan out, and from that standpoint, some might be good trade bait. 

 

 

[King Knut]

2 minutes ago, brelic said:

 

I mean, I don't disagree with your post. But I think expecting to build a championship caliber team solely from within will lead to disappointment. 

 

Can you name one Cup winning team that hasn't signed/acquired one or more bonafide top level players on their way to winning?

 

Maybe that time isn't now for the Flyers - in 3-4 years, things will be clearer in terms of absolute needs.

 

It just seems like 8 years+ is an awfully long rebuild. 

 

It's taking Hextall 4-5 years just to start from zero cap wise.  

I'm not saying NOT to bring in some stud key pieces.  I'm fully in support of that.

I don't think anything I said is in contradiction to that.  

 

I just think if he's going to make a big spend, it would be most useful on a wing.  Possibly a D man.  

 

I'd support signing a Carlson this year, but even though Hextall can afford him now, he can't really fit him unless he's willing to Waive both Gudas and Mac because there's simply no roster room.  He could also trade them, but that's a tall order even for Hextall at this point.

 

I'm personally still of the mind that Ghost, Provo, Sanheim, Morin and Myers  will be an extremely strong set of D men in this league and injury is the most likely thing to get in the way of that.  I don't think Hagg is going to stand out in what that squad is going to become.  

 

Likewise I don't think Laughton is going to be anything to write home about as a 3C, but with the right system and the right support, he could be effective until someone else is ready (Frost most likely).  

 

 

[King Knut]

51 minutes ago, Clarke2Leach said:

I think the Flyers will probably take a step back next season in the standings, but I'm ok with that.  It's going to take awhile to flush the rest of the mediocre roster members out of the lineup.  I wouldn't sign any big name free agents for the reasons King Knut has already explained (we shouldn't spend huge dollars on positions that aren't a weakness).  

 

I would entertain trading Simmonds only because his contract is done at the end of next season.  That being said - his hit isn't that bad, so I'd only bite on that if the return was very solid.  I'd much rather have him than Evander Kane (unless he's grown up some).  The Flyers seem to short on tough, veteran leadership to allow Kane into the room.

 

I hope Hextall is patient and takes advantage of other teams that are too close to the cap - I think that's where the easier rewards are.

 

Why would you think that they'd take a step back? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MaineFlyFan]

19 minutes ago, brelic said:

 

Again, I don't disagree with this approach, but I'm also starting to lean a bit more in the "enough with the magic beans, we need real beanstalks" camp. 

 

Frost might be awesome, just as easily as he can be a 3rd line center, tops. I know we'd like to believe he will be a top line player, but the odds are firmly against that. The same with Hart, and Allison, and Ratcliffe, and all those 'magic beans.'

 

Put another way, the odds of all our picks hitting and being special are supremely low. That's not negativity, that's statistics. 

 

So if Hextall sees an opportunity to acquire something tangible in the now that is young enough to be around for a while and absolutely makes our team better, it makes sense to explore it. 

 

EDITED to add a list of top CHL scorers over the years. There's a whole lot more "who???" than "oh, of course!"

 

Who the HELL is Simon Gamache!!!

[brelic]

10 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

It's taking Hextall 4-5 years just to start from zero cap wise.  

I'm not saying NOT to bring in some stud key pieces.  I'm fully in support of that.

I don't think anything I said is in contradiction to that.  

 

I just think if he's going to make a big spend, it would be most useful on a wing.  Possibly a D man.  

 

Right, so it's either FA or trade. Kane probably resigns in SJ. Neal, meh. He's ok and would help, I just don't like him lol. 

 

Trade is probably more realistic, I'm just not sure who that would be or what it would cost. 

 

10 minutes ago, King Knut said:

I'd support signing a Carlson this year, but even though Hextall can afford him now, he can't really fit him unless he's willing to Waive both Gudas and Mac because there's simply no roster room.  He could also trade them, but that's a tall order even for Hextall at this point.

 

I'm personally still of the mind that Ghost, Provo, Sanheim, Morin and Myers  will be an extremely strong set of D men in this league and injury is the most likely thing to get in the way of that.  I don't think Hagg is going to stand out in what that squad is going to become.  

 

He could also trade Sanheim / Morin / Myers to make room for Carlson. I know, they could end up being great. But Carlson (or Karlsson or whoever) is great right now and still young. In other words, none of those young guys are untouchable in the right deal. 

 

If we manage to get Carlson, and also swing a trade for a solid young top 6 winger+ with upside for, say, a package that included one of the young D, I think we are still ok. 

 

10 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

Likewise I don't think Laughton is going to be anything to write home about as a 3C, but with the right system and the right support, he could be effective until someone else is ready (Frost most likely).  

 

 

 

Yeah, exactly. I could take or leave Laughton. I don't see him as a long-term fixture on the Flyers.