On the Panthers...Relative to the O&B

[Howie58]

Last night's win didn't surprise me.  The Panthers had something of an off year, but didn't diminish the fact they are very talented.

 

Dale Tallon may have tarnished his reputation at career's end, but he was obsessed with finding speed and skill, as well as size.  His picks reflect that.  Bill Zito has practiced the same but seems very adept at smart pickups.  Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, etc.  

 

https://thehockeynews.com/news/bill-zito-q-and-a-his-road-from-brewers-bat-boy-to-panthers-gm

 

I also wonder if working in a small market (ala Billy Beane and Oakland) forces out-of-box, cost-effective thinking. Zito served in Columbus--like our coach.   The culture in Flyerland is that a corporate parent will provide a blank check.  Dave Scott was explicit about that. Yes, but there's a cap.  There's also rational, reasoned thinking.  I hope Briere gets it.  Meanwhile, the Panthers have two Flyer alums in goal. And we signed Risto, while Florida signed Reinhart.  I think we picked the wrong Sabre. 

 

 

[radoran]

15 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

And we signed Risto, while Florida signed Reinhart.  I think we picked the wrong Sabre. 

 

Ol' Fletch gave up a 1st, 2 2nd, a 7th, Shayne Gotstobethere, and Robert Haag for Ristolainen.

 

Florida gave up a 3rd for Brandon Montour.

 

Ristolainen might be made into an effective bottom six player.

 

Montour had 73 points this season.

 

True story.

[Howie58]

32 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Ol' Fletch gave up a 1st, 2 2nd, a 7th, Shayne Gotstobethere, and Robert Haag for Ristolainen.

 

Florida gave up a 3rd for Brandon Montour.

 

Ristolainen might be made into an effective bottom six player.

 

Montour had 73 points this season.

 

True story.

Rad:

 

I almost lost my Campbell's Chunky Soup lunch after reading your factoid.  Holy Sh..t, unbelievable.  It is painful to think about dog poop we'll be digging ourselves out of in coming years thanks to Fletch.  

[mkscrewy]

you have reminded me of when I was stoked at first when I read we were getting Risto because I thought I read "Reinhart". Thanks.

[radoran]

3 hours ago, Howie58 said:

Holy Sh..t, unbelievable. 

 

Oh, yeah? Watch as I turn back the clock to where the Flyers transmogrify Danny Briere and Vaclav Prospal into... *ta daaaa* Adam Burt.

 

In 1995 the Flyers acquire Pat Falloon for the first round pick that would become Daniel Briere.

 

In 1998 they trade Prospal and Falloon to Ottawa for Alexandre Daigle (you can still see Daigle jerseys in the upper bowl of the Wells Fargo Center if you get a good running start and smack your head into a wall).

 

A little over a year later they trade Daigle for Andrei Kovalenko.

 

Three months later they trade Kovalenko for Adam Burt.

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by radoran

[Howie58]

Greetings:

 

We have been mismanaged for a long time.  My fear.  Even with several years in a row with top-5-10 picks, we will chose unwisely.  And of course, instead of wise complementary trades, we will go hog wild on relative underperformers.  

 

Last night, I read a piece that hinted we will try to dump Ellis' contract to get something, if only cap space.  Knowing this organization, we will give up two consecutive first rounders and a prospect to do so.  

 

 

[SCFlyguy]

2 hours ago, Howie58 said:

Greetings:

 

We have been mismanaged for a long time.  My fear.  Even with several years in a row with top-5-10 picks, we will chose unwisely.  And of course, instead of wise complementary trades, we will go hog wild on relative underperformers.  

 

Last night, I read a piece that hinted we will try to dump Ellis' contract to get something, if only cap space.  Knowing this organization, we will give up two consecutive first rounders and a prospect to do so.  

 

 

Why would we trade Ellis?  He's not really hurting us and we aren't competing for anything (other than another top 5 pick).

[GrittyForever]

10 hours ago, Howie58 said:

Last night's win didn't surprise me.  The Panthers had something of an off year, but didn't diminish the fact they are very talented.

 

Dale Tallon may have tarnished his reputation at career's end, but he was obsessed with finding speed and skill, as well as size.  His picks reflect that.  Bill Zito has practiced the same but seems very adept at smart pickups.  Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, etc.  

 

https://thehockeynews.com/news/bill-zito-q-and-a-his-road-from-brewers-bat-boy-to-panthers-gm

 

I also wonder if working in a small market (ala Billy Beane and Oakland) forces out-of-box, cost-effective thinking. Zito served in Columbus--like our coach.   The culture in Flyerland is that a corporate parent will provide a blank check.  Dave Scott was explicit about that. Yes, but there's a cap.  There's also rational, reasoned thinking.  I hope Briere gets it.  Meanwhile, the Panthers have two Flyer alums in goal. And we signed Risto, while Florida signed Reinhart.  I think we picked the wrong Sabre. 

 

 

Looking at Bennett and Tkachuk, I'm not sure it was Florida's genius or Calgary's stupidity. 

 

Montour is a weird one. He was horrible in Buffalo. Worse than Risto. No idea how he's turned it around. Guess he just didn't play for them. Gudas has been decent for them. Him maybe we should have kept. 

 

Also, rather than give Zito ALL the credit I'm going to point out the lesser known fact that the guy I was suggesting here months ago for senior executive instead of our old boys,  RICK DUDLEY is the senior advisor in Florida. Quietly under the radar and spotlight, he is a hockey genius with an uncanny ability to evaluate talent and whether a player has what it takes or doesn't. Just saying. 

[Howie58]

Dudley was offed by former Panther ownership. He is a craftsman. 

[Brewin Flames]

5 hours ago, GrittyForever said:

Looking at Bennett and Tkachuk, I'm not sure it was Florida's genius or Calgary's stupidity. 

 

 

 

 

I'd like to say Calgary's stupidity, and now the fallout is beginning....

[flyercanuck]

6 hours ago, SCFlyguy said:

Why would we trade Ellis? 

 

Why? on every transaction Fletcher made. They still did them.

[Howie58]

13 hours ago, SCFlyguy said:

Why would we trade Ellis?  He's not really hurting us and we aren't competing for anything (other than another top 5 pick).

Dear SCF:

 

I am no cap expert, but here's a take.  People tend to think of LTIR as a lump-sum of available cap.  In reality, as I understand it, a team has a long-term cap pool that gets added to incrementally with each game a player sits out.  Ellis nets us $6.25 million over a season.  But I don't think Briere can think of it that way in terms of player acquisition up front.  In essence, there is cap inflexibility you could dispose of via trade.  I suspect that Arizona, which is cap challenged in perpetuity, collects these relics accordingly because they don't envision any real expensive signings.  

 

The other part I've read deals with the kinds of trades that are made with these players.  I gather the strategy is picking up a relatively expensive player at the end of contract who can be disposed of at the trade deadline or simply disappears as a free agent.  I will let others explain the rhyme or reason on that.  

[GratefulFlyers]

17 hours ago, Howie58 said:

And of course, instead of wise complementary trades, we will go hog wild on relative underperformers.  

My sense is that Briere will resist the urge and the temptation (and the pressure) to make any “big splash” deals. He and Tortorella have both said the rebuild must start with subtraction so I assume he’s focused on that this summer. Hayes obviously, Ristolainen if there’s a god in heaven.
 

re: Ellis. If I understood you correctly the Flyers don’t automatically have his full salary to use, as if it didn’t exist, just because he’s on LTIR. Is that right? If so then do you know what they do have in cap money due to his injury status? It would be nice if Briere can unload that contract…according to the rumor mill it’s a distinct possibility.

[Howie58]

32 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

My sense is that Briere will resist the urge and the temptation (and the pressure) to make any “big splash” deals. He and Tortorella have both said the rebuild must start with subtraction so I assume he’s focused on that this summer. Hayes obviously, Ristolainen if there’s a god in heaven.
 

re: Ellis. If I understood you correctly the Flyers don’t automatically have his full salary to use, as if it didn’t exist, just because he’s on LTIR. Is that right? If so then do you know what they do have in cap money due to his injury status? It would be nice if Briere can unload that contract…according to the rumor mill it’s a distinct possibility.

Grateful:

 

If you want to fight your way through a tough read, here is an overview of the LTIR that I vaguely comprehend:

https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

 

What's clear is that a team has to incorporate cap space (or overage).  Another factor is that even if there is evidence before the start of the season that player X is not available for Game 1, they cannot simply claim the entirety of his salary up front--it is, if I understand this, banked on a per game basis (I guess that would be about $75K per game for Ellis).  So a GM doesn't have the entire salary available for acquiring someone new or even bringing up someone from the minors on a two-way and paying the NHL rate.  

 

The article I read on Ellis says his contract is insured.  That tells me the acquiring team has the salary outlay covered.  But they have to deal with this complicated mess.  

 

 

 

[radoran]

Ellis' "actual" salary next year is $7.7M

 

Insured or not, there's no "bargain" on his salary until the final two years (where salary is lower than cap hit)

 

Any other team is taking on the same four year burden that the Flyers face.

 

Is there actually a disappointing higher paid player on a shorter term on a roster that has extra cap space?

 

Well, speaking of that, they could trade him to Arizona for Voracek...

 

I don't know why anyone takes Ellis with anything less than a heap of sweetener to do it.

[radoran]

16 hours ago, GrittyForever said:

Montour is a weird one. He was horrible in Buffalo. Worse than Risto. No idea how he's turned it around.

 

He wasn't, really, and he was fairly steady and unspectacular in Anaheim before that. Buffalo was a dumpster fire inside a dumpster fire surrounded by flaming tires.

 

And for all that, over 112 games for the Sabres he was -4. Ristolainen was -61 over the same three seasons.

 

This year I think he got put in the right position at the right time and took full advantage of it. Not odd for defenseman to emerge in their late 20s (although 29 is up there).

 

Can he replicate it? We'll see...

[OccamsRazor]

5 minutes ago, radoran said:

Buffalo was a dumpster fire inside a dumpster fire surrounded by flaming tires.

 

Funniest thing i read all day....

 

[GrittyForever]

18 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

He wasn't, really, and he was fairly steady and unspectacular in Anaheim before that. Buffalo was a dumpster fire inside a dumpster fire surrounded by flaming tires.

 

And for all that, over 112 games for the Sabres he was -4. Ristolainen was -61 over the same three seasons.

 

This year I think he got put in the right position at the right time and took full advantage of it. Not odd for defenseman to emerge in their late 20s (although 29 is up there).

 

Can he replicate it? We'll see...

Not really a fair stat because Buffalo considered Risto their #1 D man and he got a lot more ice time and was put out in the tough situations. Hence, they lost a lot of games

As I remember it, Anaheim wanted to trade him because they considered him a decent puck mover but erratic on D and unreliable. At the time they favored a more conservative stay at home defensive type. They sort of viewed him the way we viewed Ghost. 

 

Doesn't matter though, if we'd given up a third for him and not traded for Risto we'd have been better off no question. As always, thanks Fletcher. 

[OccamsRazor]

1 minute ago, GrittyForever said:

Not really a fair stat because Buffalo considered Risto their #1 D man and he got a lot more ice time and was put out in the tough situations. Hence, they lost a lot of games

As I remember it, Anaheim wanted to trade him because they considered him a decent puck mover but erratic on D and unreliable. At the time they favored a more conservative stay at home defensive type. They sort of viewed him the way we viewed Ghost. 

 

Doesn't matter though, if we'd given up a third for him and not traded for Risto we'd have been better off no question. As always, thanks Fletcher. 

 

I wanted Montour before he went to Anaheim. But also wanted Manson too.

 

They could have used them then Ivan and Travis are worth trying to get to playing good hockey around their net...but this team is too late and gone for them now just continue to remove the guys who don't fit.

 

So if they come back and Risto is the only whipping boy left i can live with it.

 

I am know moving on from Sanheim and Provorov unless it is for a nice haul.

 

Worst case ever he is just trade bait at the deadline as a free agent rental for one year maybe at this year's deadline or then in 2024-25 deadline.

 

 

[GrittyForever]

Another team we might want to copy is the Kraken. Man, those guys are relentless. Speed and tenacity, that's a recipe for success in this league. 

[OccamsRazor]

5 hours ago, GrittyForever said:

Another team we might want to copy is the Kraken. Man, those guys are relentless. Speed and tenacity, that's a recipe for success in this league. 

 

Whoever their coach they need a guy like that...

[SCFlyguy]

I understand getting rid of Ellis has a slight impact on the cap accrual, freeing them up to take on more salary at the deadline.  I'm saying that isn't something the Flyers need at this juncture; they shouldn't be looking to add salary at the deadline any time soon.  So his salary, imo, isn't a detriment, and not worth burning the picks it's going to take to get rid of him.

[SCFlyguy]

If the Flyers do this, Briere is an unserious GM and all his talk about rebuild is just window dressing for Flyers business as usual.

[SCFlyguy]

The Flyers are bad now.  With their financial resources, what they should be doing is assuming bad contracts from contenders in return for accruing more picks.  They would be able to do this if they didn't constantly have 2-5 insane contracts that put them right at the cap.

[flyercanuck]

3 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Whoever their coach they need a guy like that...

 

Right? We change players, coaches, GMs, players, coaches, Gms....and on and on. Homer and Clarke stay on, and the team continues to blow.