Calgary preview, are the Flames extinguished?

[yave1964]

LAST SEASONS RECORD 38-27-17 93 points 2 points out of a playoff spot, plus 8 goal differential.

 

 STAT OF THE YEAR, NOT JUST FOR THE FLAMES BUT FOR ANY TEAM They became just the 3rd team EVER to lose 30 games or more by one goal, their 31 one goal losses is the second most in history. On top of that they shattered their own team record with 17 overtime losses. This team simply did not know how to win.

 

ADDITIONS Sherengovich came over from the Devils. They brought in long time assistant and player friendly Ryan Huska to be the head coach and longtime Flame alum Craig Conroy to be the GM. Retread Oesterle will serve as the 7D. 

 

SUBTRACTIONS Sutter is out as coach. Treliving is gone as the GM. Toffoli wanted out, he was dealt to New Jersey. Spare parts Lucic, Michael Stone, Ritchie, Trevor Lewis and Troy Stecher were all shown the door.

 

KIDS IN THE SYSTEM Lots. Matthew Coronato is going to be a very good goal scorer for years to come. Walker Duehr is a fantastic forward prospect. Jakub Pelletier is going to be a middle six winger for a decade. Dustin Wolf has pushed himself into the conversation for top young goalie prospects with a second consecutive fantastic season with Stockton. A good four or five other kids will be fighting for ice time this year.

 

  I was a Sutter apologist for much of last year, i like a tough coach who isnt afraid to put the fear of God into a team but sutter lost the room completely. His biggest failing was giving guys like ritchie and Lucic top six minutes at various times throughout the season and not trusting the kids. It cost him his job and will likely tarnish his hall of fame resume a tad. 

 

  SO THE QUESTION, ARE THEY STILL CONTENDERS? I give new President of hockey operations Mloney and GM Conroy so very much credit, they didnt panic sell. Rumors were that Lindholm, Hanifin and Backlund all wanted out, none have (so far) been dealt. They have taken it slowly, assessing where they are as an organization. I give Treliving credit for last season as well, he lost Guadreau for nothing, instead of doing the same with Tkachuk he dealt him for Huberdeau, Weegar, and signed Kadri. It didnt work out but he went down swinging.

 

 SO THE ANSWER, ARE THE FLAMES IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM A CONTENDER? Absolutely yes, YES, A THOUSAND TIMES YES. 31 one goal losses will never happen again. If they slip back into the middle of the pack with that number this year, league average last season was 17, that bumps them to 107 points.

 

  Losing Toffoli hurts, plain and simple he was lights out last season. Sherengovich is a solid hard checking 3rd line winger who can sneak a goal in every now and then, nothing more. He along cannot and will not replace the offense. But man the kids, led by Coronato can and will score. clearing out the deadwood, Ritchie, Lucic, Lewis were not very good or interesting. By not panic trading as Treliving did, they have kept the core of a damn good team that was snakebit and couldnt get catch a break all year. The kids, a fresh new front office with an optimistic outlook IMHO many folks will look past the club and forget that two years ago they were one of the leagues darlings. Not me, i am going to buck that trend. I have them second in their division with 105 points and a damn fine year.

[pilldoc]

46 minutes ago, yave1964 said:

LAST SEASONS RECORD 38-27-17 93 points 2 points out of a playoff spot, plus 8 goal differential.

 

 STAT OF THE YEAR, NOT JUST FOR THE FLAMES BUT FOR ANY TEAM They became just the 3rd team EVER to lose 30 games or more by one goal, their 31 one goal losses is the second most in history. On top of that they shattered their own team record with 17 overtime losses. This team simply did not know how to win.

 

ADDITIONS Sherengovich came over from the Devils. They brought in long time assistant and player friendly Ryan Huska to be the head coach and longtime Flame alum Craig Conroy to be the GM. Retread Oesterle will serve as the 7D. 

 

SUBTRACTIONS Sutter is out as coach. Treliving is gone as the GM. Toffoli wanted out, he was dealt to New Jersey. Spare parts Lucic, Michael Stone, Ritchie, Trevor Lewis and Troy Stecher were all shown the door.

 

KIDS IN THE SYSTEM Lots. Matthew Coronato is going to be a very good goal scorer for years to come. Walker Duehr is a fantastic forward prospect. Jakub Pelletier is going to be a middle six winger for a decade. Dustin Wolf has pushed himself into the conversation for top young goalie prospects with a second consecutive fantastic season with Stockton. A good four or five other kids will be fighting for ice time this year.

 

  I was a Sutter apologist for much of last year, i like a tough coach who isnt afraid to put the fear of God into a team but sutter lost the room completely. His biggest failing was giving guys like ritchie and Lucic top six minutes at various times throughout the season and not trusting the kids. It cost him his job and will likely tarnish his hall of fame resume a tad. 

 

  SO THE QUESTION, ARE THEY STILL CONTENDERS? I give new President of hockey operations Mloney and GM Conroy so very much credit, they didnt panic sell. Rumors were that Lindholm, Hanifin and Backlund all wanted out, none have (so far) been dealt. They have taken it slowly, assessing where they are as an organization. I give Treliving credit for last season as well, he lost Guadreau for nothing, instead of doing the same with Tkachuk he dealt him for Huberdeau, Weegar, and signed Kadri. It didnt work out but he went down swinging.

 

 SO THE ANSWER, ARE THE FLAMES IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM A CONTENDER? Absolutely yes, YES, A THOUSAND TIMES YES. 31 one goal losses will never happen again. If they slip back into the middle of the pack with that number this year, league average last season was 17, that bumps them to 107 points.

 

  Losing Toffoli hurts, plain and simple he was lights out last season. Sherengovich is a solid hard checking 3rd line winger who can sneak a goal in every now and then, nothing more. He along cannot and will not replace the offense. But man the kids, led by Coronato can and will score. clearing out the deadwood, Ritchie, Lucic, Lewis were not very good or interesting. By not panic trading as Treliving did, they have kept the core of a damn good team that was snakebit and couldnt get catch a break all year. The kids, a fresh new front office with an optimistic outlook IMHO many folks will look past the club and forget that two years ago they were one of the leagues darlings. Not me, i am going to buck that trend. I have them second in their division with 105 points and a damn fine year.

How many times can I say great write up…. Seriously… again spot on.

 

I love Wolf in net... Sadly there is one word blocking him. ….that word and player is Markstrom…….. Markstrom and his 6 million dollar is there for 3 more years.

 

 I could see Vlader being moved and Wolf sliding in behind Markstrom.

 

Like Gibson. Markstrom’s contract could be hard to move.

[thegx.ca]

20 hours ago, yave1964 said:

LAST SEASONS RECORD 38-27-17 93 points 2 points out of a playoff spot, plus 8 goal differential.

 

 STAT OF THE YEAR, NOT JUST FOR THE FLAMES BUT FOR ANY TEAM They became just the 3rd team EVER to lose 30 games or more by one goal, their 31 one goal losses is the second most in history. On top of that they shattered their own team record with 17 overtime losses. This team simply did not know how to win.

 

ADDITIONS Sherengovich came over from the Devils. They brought in long time assistant and player friendly Ryan Huska to be the head coach and longtime Flame alum Craig Conroy to be the GM. Retread Oesterle will serve as the 7D. 

 

SUBTRACTIONS Sutter is out as coach. Treliving is gone as the GM. Toffoli wanted out, he was dealt to New Jersey. Spare parts Lucic, Michael Stone, Ritchie, Trevor Lewis and Troy Stecher were all shown the door.

 

KIDS IN THE SYSTEM Lots. Matthew Coronato is going to be a very good goal scorer for years to come. Walker Duehr is a fantastic forward prospect. Jakub Pelletier is going to be a middle six winger for a decade. Dustin Wolf has pushed himself into the conversation for top young goalie prospects with a second consecutive fantastic season with Stockton. A good four or five other kids will be fighting for ice time this year.

 

  I was a Sutter apologist for much of last year, i like a tough coach who isnt afraid to put the fear of God into a team but sutter lost the room completely. His biggest failing was giving guys like ritchie and Lucic top six minutes at various times throughout the season and not trusting the kids. It cost him his job and will likely tarnish his hall of fame resume a tad. 

 

  SO THE QUESTION, ARE THEY STILL CONTENDERS? I give new President of hockey operations Mloney and GM Conroy so very much credit, they didnt panic sell. Rumors were that Lindholm, Hanifin and Backlund all wanted out, none have (so far) been dealt. They have taken it slowly, assessing where they are as an organization. I give Treliving credit for last season as well, he lost Guadreau for nothing, instead of doing the same with Tkachuk he dealt him for Huberdeau, Weegar, and signed Kadri. It didnt work out but he went down swinging.

 

 SO THE ANSWER, ARE THE FLAMES IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM A CONTENDER? Absolutely yes, YES, A THOUSAND TIMES YES. 31 one goal losses will never happen again. If they slip back into the middle of the pack with that number this year, league average last season was 17, that bumps them to 107 points.

 

  Losing Toffoli hurts, plain and simple he was lights out last season. Sherengovich is a solid hard checking 3rd line winger who can sneak a goal in every now and then, nothing more. He along cannot and will not replace the offense. But man the kids, led by Coronato can and will score. clearing out the deadwood, Ritchie, Lucic, Lewis were not very good or interesting. By not panic trading as Treliving did, they have kept the core of a damn good team that was snakebit and couldnt get catch a break all year. The kids, a fresh new front offi ce with an optimistic outlook IMHO many folks will look past the club and forget that two years ago they were one of the leagues darlings. Not me, i am going to buck that trend. I have them second in their division with 105 points and a damn fine year.

I hope you're right but I really doubt they are even in the playoff conversation...this was a rebuild ever since Treliving and Sutter left...the Pacific belongs to Las Vegas Edmonton and Los Angeles...Calgary is not younger but not tougher and faster but not better...I think we'll see a repeat and the same differences as when Gulutzan took over from Hartley which is ironic because Harley won the best coach of the year same as Sutter did...

 

 

[thegx.ca]

19 hours ago, pilldoc said:

How many times can I say great write up…. Seriously… again spot on.

 

I love Wolf in net... Sadly there is one word blocking him. ….that word and player is Markstrom…….. Markstrom and his 6 million dollar is there for 3 more years.

 

 I could see Vlader being moved and Wolf sliding in behind Markstrom.

 

Like Gibson. Markstrom’s contract could be hard to move.

 

I doubt they move Marktrom they gotta give him a chance to bounce back at least...they can't get much for him now anyways until he start playing better...

[ruxpin]

22 hours ago, yave1964 said:

LAST SEASONS RECORD 38-27-17 93 points 2 points out of a playoff spot, plus 8 goal differential.

 

 STAT OF THE YEAR, NOT JUST FOR THE FLAMES BUT FOR ANY TEAM They became just the 3rd team EVER to lose 30 games or more by one goal, their 31 one goal losses is the second most in history. On top of that they shattered their own team record with 17 overtime losses. This team simply did not know how to win.

 

ADDITIONS Sherengovich came over from the Devils. They brought in long time assistant and player friendly Ryan Huska to be the head coach and longtime Flame alum Craig Conroy to be the GM. Retread Oesterle will serve as the 7D. 

 

SUBTRACTIONS Sutter is out as coach. Treliving is gone as the GM. Toffoli wanted out, he was dealt to New Jersey. Spare parts Lucic, Michael Stone, Ritchie, Trevor Lewis and Troy Stecher were all shown the door.

 

KIDS IN THE SYSTEM Lots. Matthew Coronato is going to be a very good goal scorer for years to come. Walker Duehr is a fantastic forward prospect. Jakub Pelletier is going to be a middle six winger for a decade. Dustin Wolf has pushed himself into the conversation for top young goalie prospects with a second consecutive fantastic season with Stockton. A good four or five other kids will be fighting for ice time this year.

 

  I was a Sutter apologist for much of last year, i like a tough coach who isnt afraid to put the fear of God into a team but sutter lost the room completely. His biggest failing was giving guys like ritchie and Lucic top six minutes at various times throughout the season and not trusting the kids. It cost him his job and will likely tarnish his hall of fame resume a tad. 

 

  SO THE QUESTION, ARE THEY STILL CONTENDERS? I give new President of hockey operations Mloney and GM Conroy so very much credit, they didnt panic sell. Rumors were that Lindholm, Hanifin and Backlund all wanted out, none have (so far) been dealt. They have taken it slowly, assessing where they are as an organization. I give Treliving credit for last season as well, he lost Guadreau for nothing, instead of doing the same with Tkachuk he dealt him for Huberdeau, Weegar, and signed Kadri. It didnt work out but he went down swinging.

 

 SO THE ANSWER, ARE THE FLAMES IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM A CONTENDER? Absolutely yes, YES, A THOUSAND TIMES YES. 31 one goal losses will never happen again. If they slip back into the middle of the pack with that number this year, league average last season was 17, that bumps them to 107 points.

 

  Losing Toffoli hurts, plain and simple he was lights out last season. Sherengovich is a solid hard checking 3rd line winger who can sneak a goal in every now and then, nothing more. He along cannot and will not replace the offense. But man the kids, led by Coronato can and will score. clearing out the deadwood, Ritchie, Lucic, Lewis were not very good or interesting. By not panic trading as Treliving did, they have kept the core of a damn good team that was snakebit and couldnt get catch a break all year. The kids, a fresh new front office with an optimistic outlook IMHO many folks will look past the club and forget that two years ago they were one of the leagues darlings. Not me, i am going to buck that trend. I have them second in their division with 105 points and a damn fine year.

I'm not bullish on over 100 points. I think they may sneak into the playoffs as an 8-seed, but I just don't like this team.

 

Too much has to go just right with their kids.  I think Huberdeau will likely be better (could he be worse?) but no matter how you slice and dice it, Barkov does not play for Calgary, so you won't see Huberdeau return to Florida production.

 

I am not, nor have I ever been, a fan of Markstrom. He's not terrible but can be. And I think two seasons ago was his career high water mark.  He's going to have to be at least that good because I still think their defense is suspect and their forward lines are decent but mismatched players.

 

The middle to bottom of the conference is terrible, so things could go well enough that they get in, but I would not think they have any contender qualities. I don't think they can skate with the stronger teams.

[thegx.ca]

12 hours ago, ruxpin said:

I'm not bullish on over 100 points. I think they may sneak into the playoffs as an 8-seed, but I just don't like this team.

 

Too much has to go just right with their kids.  I think Huberdeau will likely be better (could he be worse?) but no matter how you slice and dice it, Barkov does not play for Calgary, so you won't see Huberdeau return to Florida production.

 

I am not, nor have I ever been, a fan of Markstrom. He's not terrible but can be. And I think two seasons ago was his career high water mark.  He's going to have to be at least that good because I still think their defense is suspect and their forward lines are decent but mismatched players.

 

The middle to bottom of the conference is terrible, so things could go well enough that they get in, but I would not think they have any contender qualities. I don't think they can skate with the stronger teams.

 

Totally agree and I'm pretty depressed about our chances this year...I can't see them competing with Las Vegas Edmonton and Los Angeles for Pacific Division playoff sorts just on paper those teams are heads and shoulders above our young rookie lineups in Calgary...

 

I agree Huberdeau will definitely produce more with Sutter gone but Huberdeau Kadri and Lindholm can't replace the firepower that Tkachuk Gaudreau and Toffoli produced...even with the rookies like Coronado and Pelletier etc yeah too much has to go right it would be a miracle team full of youngsters leading this team and I doubt it can happen...

 

I like our defence and goaltending situation hopefully that doesn't changed but if Hanifin and Tanev leave I'm thinking were definitely gonna get short changed for the return...and they should have kept Stetcher...

 

To me this team looking more and more like the young lineups in Anaheim and I think Calgary will lead the basement dwellers in the west few points ahead of Anaheim Arizona and San Jose...

[Math]

Hard to tell. I feel last year was some kind of an accident. For sure Markström's deal was terrible from day 1 but with Sutter gone, some new fresh air, approach and system might work well and I don't see Huberdeau's slump repeat. Sometimes, you just need another voice, another message in the locker room. I guess they will fight for a playoff spot and be likely in the postseason as a WC team.

[thegx.ca]

So far so good after a 10-0 preseason win haha...

[Math]

STÄNGGELI ! 

 

(swiss-german word to describe a 10-0 win)

 

 

[Mad Dog]

They are one team that's really hard to figure out.  Objectively, I think they will be mediocre. When they made a decision 2 summers ago to move Tkachuk & Gaudreau for Huberdeau & Kadri, I though that was a terrible idea.  Boy, did that plan blow in their face....  And Markstrom... I had that guy in NAHANA on my team for 3 years straight. Prior to last year he was nothing short of brilliant. Only 2 years ago he finished second in Vezina Trophy voting. I don't really know what happened to him last season, but it was like watching a completely different goalie. He was letting in easy goals that he has no business letting in.  It was an abysmal performance by all measures.  I really think if they can manage to get him back to what he was prior to last season, they have a playoff chance.  if they are getting the last year's Markstrom, they will finish dead last in Pacific... yes, below the Ducks and Sharks, as hard as it is to believe. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Mad Dog

[ruxpin]

4 hours ago, Mad Dog said:

if they are getting the last year's Markstrom, they will finish dead last in Pacific... yes, below the Ducks and Sharks, as hard as it is to believe. 

 

You're generally a bit more bullish on Markstrom than I am, but still very much agree with your whole post.    But I'm quoting this particular line because that's dead-on.  If they get Markstrom from last year, I just don't think it's strong enough of a team to overcome that.  I would guess they'd have to be really bad to be behind the Sharks.  Multiple things would have to go terribly wrong, but I think it's a stronger bet than that they'll be contenders.   

 

On the other hand, if Markstrom plays like two seasons ago, their defense holds up, and they play like a team enjoying the benefit of Suter being gone, then they're top of the middle and maybe good things happen.

[pilldoc]

1 hour ago, ruxpin said:

On the other hand, if Markstrom plays like two seasons ago, their defense holds up, and they play like a team enjoying the benefit of Suter being gone, then they're top of the middle and maybe good things happen.

 

Honestly, I see a combination of things happening with this team.

 

1). I read  that Markstrom’s -17.97 GSAA (goals saved above average) ---yes I had to look that up, was the worst of his career and at one point, he was even splitting starts with Vladar. Now, the Flames have Wolf waiting in the wings for a potential three-headed monster. At 22 years old, Wolf appears ready for NHL duty, as he posted a 2.09 GAA and 0.932 SV% in the AHL in 2022-23. Markstrom is impossible to trade, as he has 3 years left on his contract with a $6 million cap hit. That leaves Vladar as the most likely to be traded. If so, Wolf could make a run for the starting job by midseason. No trade, and Wolf could be back in the AHL. Markstrom is still the starter because of his contract, but he’s hardly on solid ground.  Agree, if the Flames get last year's Markstrom, they are toast.

 

However,

 

2) Looking at the metrics, which, since I started doing a couple of years when I started to get heavily invested in FHL, they tell a different story.  For the 22-23 season, the Flames generated 36.0 shots per game (ranked 2nd) and allowed only 27.3 shots per game (ranked 3rd). This dominance can be attributed to Sutter’s coaching methods as he has a long history of producing teams that dominate puck possession.  (I suspect with Sutter gone the Flames won't be as strong as a puck possession team.)

 

So ...... If the Flames were so dominant in puck possession, why did they fail to reach the playoffs? A quick look at their goal metrics provides a clue; the Flames finished the season ranked 20th in goal scoring (3.15 goals per game) and 14th in goal suppression (3.01 goals per game).

• If you’re taking the second-most shots in the league, how are you ranked 20th in goal scoring?
• If you’re allowing the third-fewest shots against in the league, how are you ranked 14th in goal suppression?

The SHSV metric, sums this problem up with one number: 980. This metric tells us how much a team has deviated from league-average values in both even-strength scoring and even-strength goaltending.

These deviations are largely driven by luck. Calgary finished the season ranked 31st in SHSV. You can break the SHSV value down into its components for more flavor here. The Flames were converting shots into goals at just 7.95% success (compared to 8.54% the previous year and compared to the league average of 8.77%).

The Flames goaltenders were stopping shots at a rate of 0.901 (compared to 0.925 the previous year and compared to the league average of 0.912). You can believe that the Flames (with the same coach, same goalie, and same dominant puck possession numbers) became very bad at scoring and defense overnight or you can believe that the team experienced very bad luck in the 22-23 campaign. I'm going to be on the latter and go out on the limb here and just state the obvious that the Flames experience a bit of bad luck last year.   (Yes .... I still acknowledge that Markstom struggled mightily last year).

So with a new GM and a new head coach, that is going to make it a bit challenging for what to expect this year.

 

I think the Flames will score a bit more as it appears they were snakebit quite a bit last year.  Markstrom might have a small improvement but he has to know he is literally skating on thin ice with Wolf in his shadow.  As mentioned above, if not for his immovable contract, I think the Flames would have moved on already.

 

I see this team as a borderline playoff team again.  I don't see them overcoming the Kings / Kracken / Knights / Oilers in the Pacific Division.  Avalance / Stars / and Wild I have as the top 3 teams in the Central.  That leaves the Blues / Jets / Predators  and Flames fighting for that last playoff spot.  The Nucks / Yotes / Hawks / Sharks / Ducks (who are improving) as the bottom dwellers in the conference.

 

So in answer to your question ...IF the Flames get a few more bounces their way this year, I could possibly see them eecking into the playoffs as the #8 seed.  Tough one ...

I got lucky 2 years ago having Markstom for the HF.net FHL and rode him to the finals against Dave.   They should be be a bit better but they won't make a serious run against the better teams in the Conference.

[J0e Th0rnton]

Don't sleep on Oliver Kylington.

 

That kid can skate , make plays, shoot and was stymied under Sutter

[JR Ewing]

59 minutes ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

Don't sleep on Oliver Kylington.

 

That kid can skate , make plays, shoot and was stymied under Sutter

 

All true, but he's once again out indefinitely.

 

[thegx.ca]

1 hour ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

Don't sleep on Oliver Kylington.

 

That kid can skate , make plays, shoot and was stymied under Sutter

Yeah Kylington is good but he also played his best season under Sutter so I'm not convinced about Sutter being a problem for Kylington...

[Mad Dog]

Another Flames' player I would keep an eye on is Noah Hanifin.  Man, that kid has some insane skills. And he just started coming around last year.  I wonder though if "Suter factor" stifled his development, so I would be curious to see what he can do under a new coach who gives him a longer leash.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Mad Dog

[thegx.ca]

On 9/25/2023 at 5:37 PM, Mad Dog said:

Another Flames' player I would keep an eye on is Noah Hanifin.  Man, that kid has some insane skills. And he just started coming around last year.  I wonder though if "Suter factor" stifled his development, so I would be curious to see what he can do under a new coach who gives him a longer leash.

Yeah but I think he did well under Sutter though as did Kylington and Gubrandson and Big Z did well under Sutter too...hope we don't lose him but it looking like we in fire sale mode now that Lindholm going to Vancity

[thegx.ca]

Flames officially extinguished now that Lindholm joining Big Z in Vancity

[thegx.ca]

Double officially extinguished now that Tanev traded for shots in the dark

Edited February 29 by thegx.ca

[thegx.ca]

Hanni gone to Las Vegas...Calgary extinguishing themselves...

[OccamsRazor]

On 1/31/2024 at 11:53 PM, thegx.ca said:

Flames officially extinguished now that Lindholm joining Big Z in Vancity

 

 

Craig putting in work...

 

Good job I'd say

[OccamsRazor]

 

[thegx.ca]

53 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

Craig putting in work...

 

Good job I'd say

Only time will tell I guess haha...