Sink or Swim Time

[flyercanuck]

14 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

 

Yup. Three more of my fairly meaningless rules:

 

-Drafting Coke machines (huge, unskilled players) in anything other than the late rounds is a recipe for disaster.

-Using early picks based on a player's supposed character, without scoring numbers to back it up, is a bad idea.

-Drafting defensive specialists is usually bound to blow up in your face.

 

You'd NEVER make a Flyer GM! 

[mojo1917]

1 hour ago, flyercanuck said:

 

The Rangers have picked 1st overall and 2nd overall in the last 5 drafts. 

Yet those players are not the players leading that team in any capacity. 

It's Bread , Mica,  Krieder and Fox. Oh let's not forget Igor Shesterkin who is a one-man winning streak.

I mean Lafreniere is a nice player but he's not the guy leading the renaissance on the Rangers. Same with goes for Kaapo Kakko.

Without the "olds" that team isn't leading anything. 

[RonJeremy]

2 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

For sure. The question is...is it impossible? Can a team win the Cup w/out stripping assets first so as to pick 1st or 2nd?

 

The Rangers may but they caught some huge breaks the past few years. The Flyers probably can't expect to duplicate their success.

 

I'm not convinced "tanking" is the only path. Assets are bought and sold all the time. Maybe not the overall 1st pick but just about anything else. Briere will have to be creative on draft day...if not this year then next year.

The breaks the Rangers caught were monumental. Trouba and  Paneran  only wanted to go to the Rangers and same with Fox. So in the blink of an eye they got a first pair defense with one guy being a hard hitting defense first guy , one guy being an offensive catalyst and also being a Norris trophy winner and they got a first line scorer. All this cost them was a second round pick. They also won the lottery getting the #1 and # 2 pick. Now let’s talk about the Flyers luck……. Hayes,JVR, Patrick and Gauthier.

[mojo1917]

58 minutes ago, radoran said:

There is no player they "missed" on with O'Brien. Yes, you could look at a K'Andre Miller, but you're still talking about a #19 pick.

 

that kid was a project, same with Morin. 

Missing on those guys certainly didn't help anything.

 

Edited March 15 by mojo1917

[radoran]

14 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

that kid was a project, same with Morin. 

Missing on those guys certainly didn't help anything.

 

Here's the rest of O'Brien's first round:

 

Missing on Bokk doesn't seem to have been detrimental to the Blues' development?

 

Who amongst that group is the "help" that would have changed their fortunes? You can get down to Sharangovich in the 5th before there's anything resembling "impact".

 

Miller, Lundestrom, Sandin, Lundkvist, Veleno - deck chairs. If any of them were still on this roster, I'd be shocked.

 

Quite frankly, the Flyers are better off with the 2nd in this year's as compensation.

 

But your overall point is correct - don't draft projects when you need players.

 

Right now, they're picking 17th. In recent years that's gotten players like Peyton Krebs or Lukas Reichel. In O'Brien's draft year it was Ty Smith, who's on his second franchise and playing in Wilkes-Barre.

 

Help is on the way.

 

[ruxpin]

15 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Here's the rest of O'Brien's first round:

 

Missing on Bokk doesn't seem to have been detrimental to the Blues' development?

 

Who amongst that group is the "help" that would have changed their fortunes? You can get down to Sharangovich in the 5th before there's anything resembling "impact".

 

Miller, Lundestrom, Sandin, Lundkvist, Veleno - deck chairs. If any of them were still on this roster, I'd be shocked.

 

Quite frankly, the Flyers are better off with the 2nd in this year's as compensation.

 

But your overall point is correct - don't draft projects when you need players.

 

Right now, they're picking 17th. In recent years that's gotten players like Peyton Krebs or Lukas Reichel. In O'Brien's draft year it was Ty Smith, who's on his second franchise and playing in Wilkes-Barre.

 

Help is on the way.

 

 

I wanted Sandin in that draft and was sure they'd go there.   He's in the NHL, of course, but I suppose the verdict is still out on whether this is a miss.

[GratefulFlyers]

 

48 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

Trouba and  Paneran

48 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

Now let’s talk about the Flyers luck……. Hayes,JVR, Patrick and Gauthier.

 

So compared with the Rangers you’d have to say the Flyers are about even…

 

Yep you nailed it. Those were the main players I was thinking anbout especially Panarin. Also K’Andre Miller, a late 1R pick.

 

To be fair the Rangers did pick 1st and took Lafrieniere and then 2nd the year after (or before?) and got Kaapo Kakko. Kakko’s stock may have fallen a bit this year supposedly Drury was shopping him but he’s a real good player.

 

 

 

Edited March 15 by GratefulFlyers

[RonJeremy]

41 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

that kid was a project, same with Morin. 

Missing on those guys certainly didn't help anything.

 

The problem is they reached with those guys , there were other players available that were more highly rated and less of a risk.

[radoran]

9 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

I wanted Sandin in that draft and was sure they'd go there.   He's in the NHL, of course, but I suppose the verdict is still out on whether this is a miss.

 

He's on his second franchise as well.

 

1 minute ago, RonJeremy said:

The problem is they reached with those guys , there were other players available that were more highly rated and less of a risk.

 

Morin was a reach. You show me the "shoulda had" instead of O'Brien that's more valuable than the 2nd they're getting this year.

[GratefulFlyers]

2 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

The problem is they reached with those guys

I don’t follow prospects as closely as others but it looks to me like Briere will be forced to do some “reaching” this year.

[RonJeremy]

2 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

 

So compared with the Rangers you’d have to say the Flyers are about even…

 

Yep you nailed it. Those were the main players I was thinking anbout especially Panarin. Anisotropic K’Andre Miller, a late 1R pick.

 

To be fair the Rangers did pick 1st and took Lafrieniere and then 2nd the year after (or before?) and got Kaapo Kakko. Kakko’s stock may have fallen a bit this year supposedly Drury was shopping him but he’s a damn good player.

 

Lafrenierre is starting to turn into a good player and Kakko would probably do better with a change of scenery. Tippett was almost written off as a failure in FLA, now he’s become the Flyers best sniper. Sometimes you just need a fresh start,  Kakko has size and skill for sure.

[RonJeremy]

7 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

He's on his second franchise as well.

 

 

Morin was a reach. You show me the "shoulda had" instead of O'Brien that's more valuable than the 2nd they're getting this year.

Maybe K’Andre Miller, that’s about it. Sandin, I haven’t seen enough of him to determine.

[mojo1917]

@RonJeremy

I didn't say he was trash.

I said he's not the reason they're good.

 

@radoran

Had any of the POWs taken after O'Brien even made the AHL that would be more of a benefit to the organization.

I don't understand the fixation with, "yeah but no one else was better" okay, Morin barely made the AHL, O'Brien was a non-factor- never playing a professional minute for the club. Same with Patrick.

Dudes playing somewhere in the system is better than scratching guys off the 50 contract list with a DNP for life beside their name.

That scenario happened for too many of the Flyers top picks, taken at various positions, top 5, top 10 , top 20. 

 

It's not soley why we're here, *gestures broadly * but it helped. 

 

Edited March 15 by mojo1917

[GratefulFlyers]

Yeah the “kids line” excited everyone last year but after Chytil went down early this season they’ve come back to Earth a bit. 
 

The Flyers forward group is looking good and forwards are always easier to acquire anyway. They need a top line center but for now, next year the forwards are fine. It’s the D….and now goaltending too…that needs a serious infusion of talent. And soon.

 

edit: by my count it’s Sanheim, York and probably Drysdale who are legitimate top 4 D-men. Seeler who I adore () should eventually be a 3rd pair guy. The rest, who knows if they make it as NHL players.

 

Edited March 15 by GratefulFlyers

[mojo1917]

24 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

I wanted Sandin in that draft and was sure they'd go there.   He's in the NHL, of course, but I suppose the verdict is still out on whether this is a miss.

Has he played NHL minutes ?

yes?

Not a miss, compared to O'Brien... ****** home run!!!!

 

[ruxpin]

26 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

Sometimes you just need a fresh start,  Kakko has size and skill for sure.

I'd absolutely entertain this.

[ruxpin]

31 minutes ago, radoran said:

He's on his second franchise as well.

  Well, I mean yeah.  This is kind of why I said the jury was still out, but on the other hand he IS in the NHL and the second club didn't pick him up off waivers; they traded an NHL defenseman (YMMV) and a first round pick for him.

 

But for me, the verdict is still out on whether using the pick for him there was any more justified or if it would have been better to just trade back for multiple picks.

 

At this point, I agree the 2nd round compensation is better than either O'Brien or most, if not all, of those players in the next 10 picks.

[GratefulFlyers]

2 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

I'd absolutely entertain this.

No way Drury trades him to the Flyers. I agree he’d be a great addition but the Flyers have good forwards on the roster and in the pipeline. Ask Chris about K’Andre instead!

[radoran]

4 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

O'Brien was a non-factor- never playing a professional minute for the club.

 

What I'm saying is that the 2nd they're getting for him this year is more valuable than anything any of the "AHL minutes" or whatever would have given them.

 

5 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

That scenario happened for too many of the Flyers top picks, taken at various positions, top 5, top 10 , top 20. 

 

Missing on #2 overall is a huge problem.

 

Having a #5 walk away is a big problem.

 

Having your #7(2!) be a legitimate question mark is an issue.

 

Missing on #11 overall can be a real detriment. And was.

 

Missing on 15+ is a crapshoot. So is picking 15+ consistently.

 

You can get a Sanheim or a Laughton. There are the occasional Konecnys.

 

Couturier was top 10. Provorov - who landed all these assets in return - was a 7.

They have Farabee, York, Forester. Still working on Frost.

 

They're a bubble playoff team with obvious holes (1C, 1D) that most likely aren't going to be filled with guys in the second half of the draft. Adding more of that level guy can get you exactly where they are.

 

Yes, fine, "York/Frost may develop into a..." - there are other teams in the same or better rebuild position with better players in that position. This isn't about getting the best out of whoever the Flyers draft, it's getting the Flyers to draft better overall players. To do that, you don't consistently pick or rely on the second half of the first round.

 

We fundamentally agree this team needs more talent. Effort is great. Grit is wonderful. Determination. Playing hard. The Right Way.

 

The goal is to win the Stanley Cup. There isn't a recent Cup Winner that hadn't either picked top 5 in the decade before their win or had top 5 picks on the roster.

 

It's absolutely no guarantee but it seems pretty clear that expecting to magically change what is a clearly established pattern give less of a chance.

 

Happy, as always, to be wrong.

 

[GratefulFlyers]

1 minute ago, radoran said:

This isn't about getting the best out of whoever the Flyers draft, it's getting the Flyers to draft better overall players. To do that, you don't consistently pick or rely on the second half of the first round.

Right, so the question is what you’re willing to sacrifice to pick in the top 5. Blow it up and tear it down…you’re much more likely to snag a top 1-4 pick…but at what cost? 
 

It’s a long conversation and we all know where we stand pretty much. I believe (hope, pray) there’s another way besides the patented Tank Job, which produces champions … sometimes. 

[radoran]

7 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

believe (hope, pray) there’s another way besides the patented Tank Job, which produces champions … sometimes. 

 

I think it's where you bite the bullet and send something like your two firsts this year plus Konecny to, say, Anaheim for a Top 5 pick. Does that get it done? As a start?

 

Anaheim's got some young talent, recent top picks and could add a veteran scorer AND depth talent?

 

More importantly, the Flyers need to make their "their guy" is going to be there and it going to be "that guy."

 

I do think it's going to take "that sort" of deal. I don't want to move Konecny, but I'd rather win a Cup.

[GratefulFlyers]

3 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

The Rangers have picked 1st overall and 2nd overall in the last 5 drafts. 

They did but they didn’t “tank” in any meaningful way prior to the famous letter to the fans or even after. Well I guess you could call it a “tank” when they traded their captain McDonogh but that was after they got their 1 and 2 picks.
 

Anyway, point taken, the Rangers are not a path the Flyers can follow or even try to follow. Not to mention they haven’t even won the Cup since picking 1/2 in successive years.
 

But who knows maybe Bedard or McDavid will suddenly decide they want to live on Philly cheesesteaks…

 

[flyercanuck]

1 hour ago, mojo1917 said:

Yet those players are not the players leading that team in any capacity. 

It's Bread , Mica,  Krieder and Fox. Oh let's not forget Igor Shesterkin who is a one-man winning streak.

I mean Lafreniere is a nice player but he's not the guy leading the renaissance on the Rangers. Same with goes for Kaapo Kakko.

Without the "olds" that team isn't leading anything. 

 

Sure, and those players haven't led them to a cup either. 

[RonJeremy]

34 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

No way Drury trades him to the Flyers. I agree he’d be a great addition but the Flyers have good forwards on the roster and in the pipeline. Ask Chris about K’Andre instead!

During the deadline they said one of the teams that wanted Laughton was the Rangers, how about Kakko for Laughton.

[flyercanuck]

31 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

Right, so the question is what you’re willing to sacrifice to pick in the top 5. Blow it up and tear it down…you’re much more likely to snag a top 1-4 pick…but at what cost? 
 

It’s a long conversation and we all know where we stand pretty much. I believe (hope, pray) there’s another way besides the patented Tank Job, which produces champions … sometimes. 

 

 

At what cost? The cost is, we may actually win a cup that way. That's what cost.

 

Barely making, or missing the playoffs and then getting yet another mediocre pick to go on the mediocre team, ya, we wouldn't want to take away from that!