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Cap space - Am I missing something?


Guest brelic
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Here's Seravalli from this morning (http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20120625_Pieces_falling_into_place_for__lsquo_Homer_.html):

The Flyers are in a serious position of strength heading into the opening of free agency. Assuming restricted free agent Jake Voracek re-signs and his salary bumps to $3 million and Chris Pronger's $4.9 million is moved to the long-term injury list, the Flyers will have approximately $14 million to spend (with a $70.2 million upper limit) on one forward, one defenseman and a backup goaltender.

Let's say Carle is back for $4.5 million and they get a savvy, veteran backup netminder for $900,000. That would leave Holmgren just under $9 million for the season to take a run at one of the premier free agents.

Not even Zach Parise, who I'm not even sold the Flyers are gunning for, will be paid $9 million next season. There are 9 million different ways to spend that $9 million, like throwing another $3.5 million at Jaromir Jagr and adding a mid-level free agent defenseman to round things out. Or, they can make that pitch for Parise.

Two things are clear: Holmgren is thankfully not interested in moving any of his young pieces to make one big run at a Cup and that this version of the Flyers isn't all that different from the one you'll see on the ice in October (or whenever).

Sometimes, when it seems like there may not be all that much going on, Holmgren is waiting to play that one ace up his sleeve. It's all coming into focus now.

Am I missing something with respect to the free cap space?

So, according to Capgeek, we currently have $11.4M in free cap space, which includes the JVR/Schenn trade.

Assume we sign Carle at $4.5M, leaving us with $6.9M.

Assume Voracek takes $3M (his qualifying offer would be about $2.5M), that leaves us with $3.9M.

We sign a backup for $900k, leaving us with $3M.

Keep in mind that Harry Z, Bourdon, and Sestito are RFAs, and 1 or 2 of them will probably be with the big club next year on a regular basis. But, I'm not sure what the rule is right now.. i.e., if we re-sign them now, do they count against our cap because they finished the year with the Flyers?

If they do count, we're down around $1.5M-2M in free cap space. Exceeding the cap by 10% after July 1 gives us an extra $700k.

So, all in all, we have about $2.5M in real cap space to spend after July 1.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Pronger's space counts against the cap until he is declared medically unable to play, which cannot be until after the season begins. So his $4.9M is unavailable to spend right now.

To me, this seems to indicate that there's no way in hell we can go after a Parise or a Suter... we just don't have the cap space. We would absolutely need to clear guys first, or just not sign them.

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FYI...check out Meltzer's article on hockeybuzz from yesterday..he covers this as well. And I don't think you are missing anything from what he says. We have a lot of room..which will go quickly when we start signing our RFA's, and re-sign Jagr(or another winger).

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FYI...check out Meltzer's article on hockeybuzz from yesterday..he covers this as well. And I don't think you are missing anything from what he says. We have a lot of room..which will go quickly when we start signing our RFA's, and re-sign Jagr(or another winger).

Thanks, I'll check it out..

And, apparently I can't do math! 10% of $70M is $7M, not $700K.

Doh!

Is 10% the amount by which we can exceed the cap until the season starts?

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@brelic Yes bre, we can exceed the cap by 10% during the summer....so in essence, we *can* spend Pronger's LTIR money....and then re-stash him on the LTIR once the season starts. I think one of the key elements that people miss when calculating potential cap space is the 23 man roster. Basically, as far as I understand, there is 4-5 guys who do not dress every night, who still must be counted towards the cap. Guys usually calculate those guys as AHL contributors etc, but in reality are with the Flyers and need to be accounted for.

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Yes, you can exceed cap by 10% until season starts - including all one-way contracts and a proportion of two-way contracts based upon the number of games played by the two-way player in the NHL last season.

I believe you can get an idea here: http://www.capgeek.c...24&year_id=2011

Edited by radoran
combined post below
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but Pronger's space counts against the cap until he is declared medically unable to play, which cannot be until after the season begins. So his $4.9M is unavailable to spend right now.

I believe there are some exlcusions and exceptions... Aziz! Paging Aziz!!!

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OK, having lost THREE attempts at this here we go again:

$70.3M cap

$7M off-season exemption

$77.3M off-season cap

$11.4M cap space (capgeek) + 7M off-season exemption: $18.4M off-season cap space.

-$3.6M pro-rated two-ways plus Walker = $14.8M off-season cap space.

-$4.5M "Carle" = $10.3M off-season cap space

-$3M "Voracek" = $7.3M off-season cap space

-$900K "vet backup" = $6.2M off-season cap space

-$3.5M RFAs (Sestito/Bourdon/Gus/Z/etc. - this is a rough total of the tenders which needed to be filed to keep their rights) = $2.7M off-season cap space

-------------------------

Additional possibilities; $2.7M in bonuses counted pending new CBA

Waivers ($2.8M): Shelley (WAIVE SHELLEY NOWTM) - $1.1; Walker = $1.7M

Total potential off-season cap space: $8.2M

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Part Two: The Sequel

$70.3M in-season cap

Forwards - 9 ($26.3M): Briere, Giroux, Couturier, Talbot, Hartnell, Schenn, Simmonds, Read, "Voracek" ($3M)

Defense - 7 ($27.2M): Timonen, Coburn, Meszaros, Grossmann, Lilja, Schenn, "Carle" ($4.5M)

Goalie - 2 ($6.6M): Bryzgalov, "Veteran Backup" ($900K)

LTIR - $4.9M (Pronger)

$10.2 "available space" for three forwards including Pronger's LTIR. Note I have also conveniently waived Shelley (WAIVE SHELLEY NOWTM) so it's "really" $9.1M - as Seravalli notes.

BUT, the Flyers CANNOT SPEND all of that in the off-season because of the two-ways, bonuses, RFAs and needing to count Walker and Pronger at full and remain under the off-season cap.

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So, if I'm to understand, the Flyers *really* don't have the cap space to get a Suter or Praise....correct? It seems like Homer has a little wiggle room, but he having to guard against the bonses (that won't really be paid out but you have to proceed like they will) and the RFA and 2 ways. I really, really hope the Pens do not get Praise.....that would be just awful!!

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@radoran

Ok, so let's say they would have somehere between $8'ish and $10'ish to operate with. So..... assuming Voracek and Carle are resigned, Jagr walks, and Pronger gets LTIR'd, the Flyers needs are one back-up goalie and two forwards (I am basing it on replacing JVR and Jagr). I think $8 mil will barely get it done........ quality-wise that is.

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So, if I'm to understand, the Flyers *really* don't have the cap space to get a Suter or Praise....correct?

I just don't see how, unless Homer pulls something major (like he did last summer). As I just posted to Rad, $8-$10 mill *can* get you some decent role-players-kind people, but we might as well forget about Parise... not that he showed much enthusiasm coming to Philly thus far.

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@radoran

Ok, so let's say they would have somehere between $8'ish and $10'ish to operate with. So..... assuming Voracek and Carle are resigned, Jagr walks, and Pronger gets LTIR'd, the Flyers needs are one back-up goalie and two forwards (I am basing it on replacing JVR and Jagr). I think $8 mil will barely get it done........ quality-wise that is.

They are pretty strapped right now. They needed to tender their RFAs to retain rights and the tender goes on the cap immediately.

The bonus issue remains unresolved. That potential $2.7M might not exist until much later this summer.

Then there's waiving two players and I don't know immediately how that works in the off-season for another $2.8M.

The upshot: as I see it, they have about $2.7M in "off-season cap space" going into July 1 (assuming Voracek at $3M and Carle at $4.5M).

So, if I'm to understand, the Flyers *really* don't have the cap space to get a Suter or Praise....correct? It seems like Homer has a little wiggle room, but he having to guard against the bonses (that won't really be paid out but you have to proceed like they will) and the RFA and 2 ways. I really, really hope the Pens do not get Praise.....that would be just awful!!

They have had to tender Voracek $2.25M to retain his rights so if you assume the don't sign Carle, they have about $8M ($7.95M) in cap space. I suppose they *could* decide to go Suter over Carle, if they just go with the one-year tender deal for Voracek...

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The other factor is Brayden Schenn's cap hit for the next 2 years. I tweeted Meltzer yesterday about it...he pointed me to CapGeek and an old article by Darren Dreger--which as Bill said, state separate things. So Schenn's hit could be $1.? million, or $3.2 million.

Anybody got a firm answer on that one?

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@DaGreatGazoo Not 100% positive DGG, but I seem to recall aziz saying that the Flyers had to act as if the 3.2 was his cap hit, not allowed to spend it in case it's needed. If, at the end of the year it's not used I believe you can use the savings next year....or something to that effect. Confusing this crap.

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The other factor is Brayden Schenn's cap hit for the next 2 years. I tweeted Meltzer yesterday about it...he pointed me to CapGeek and an old article by Darren Dreger--which as Bill said, state separate things. So Schenn's hit could be $1.? million, or $3.2 million.

Anybody got a firm answer on that one?

Schenn is slated to be a $3.1M cap hit this season with $2.255M in potential bonus money counting because there is no new CBA allowing them to put that off until next season.

Schenn, from what I have read, is quite unlikely to hit these bonus numbers and his cap hit would be $900K without them - and bonuses would usually be retroactively applied on next season's cap after they are earned. That's part of the $2.7M I reference in my posts (the other $450K is Couturier).

They cannot spend that money and it counts against the off-season cap until this issue is resolved.

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I just don't see how, unless Homer pulls something major (like he did last summer). As I just posted to Rad, $8-$10 mill *can* get you some decent role-players-kind people, but we might as well forget about Parise... not that he showed much enthusiasm coming to Philly thus far.

Can we get a Bobby Ryan inside of those numbers?

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The other factor is Brayden Schenn's cap hit for the next 2 years. I tweeted Meltzer yesterday about it...he pointed me to CapGeek and an old article by Darren Dreger--which as Bill said, state separate things. So Schenn's hit could be $1.? million, or $3.2 million.

Anybody got a firm answer on that one?

@DaGreatGazoo Not 100% positive DGG, but I seem to recall aziz saying that the Flyers had to act as if the 3.2 was his cap hit, not allowed to spend it in case it's needed. If, at the end of the year it's not used I believe you can use the savings next year....or something to that effect. Confusing this crap.

Schenn is slated to be a $3.1M cap hit this season with $2.255M in potential bonus money counting because there is no new CBA allowing them to put that off until next season.

Schenn, from what I have read, is quite unlikely to hit these bonus numbers and his cap hit would be $900K without them - and bonuses would usually be retroactively applied on next season's cap after they are earned. That's part of the $2.7M I reference in my posts (the other $450K is Couturier).

They cannot spend that money and it counts against the off-season cap until this issue is resolved.

Schenn WILL NOT hit the bonus numbers. He has a bonus clause that says something like he has to play an average of 25 mins per game for all 82 games. That's the initial reason he was in the AHL last year to start the season. Homer will assign him to the Phantoms for 1 game and wipe out that bonus.

Edited by AlaskaFlyerFan
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