FLYERS SIGN WEBER TO MASSIVE OFFER SHEET

[JackStraw]

Not true. It counts, we value it, and you're welcome to it. But you're still full of **** all the same.

I'm sorry, were you talking to me?

[Phillygrump]

It could sink the franchise if they do match the offer. That contract is poison to Nashville. I think its a ruthless move that might not have any good outcome for Nashville. Its not something as simple as being a no-brainer to match the offer.

[juniorclem]

New to the forum, great move by the Flyers....

I hear a lot of talk about the Preds matching the offer and then shipping Weber off in a trade after a year. Wouldn't a new CBA make that difficult to do? I would imagine that whatever the new CBA is it will greatly deter Teams from making these types of signings and make it almost impossible to trade players with long-term deals........thoughts?

[JackStraw]

See, now that was my original point. We had to pay them, right? Can't the same thing happen with all these 10+ year deals people are signing lately? Aren't teams going to be paying for guys who can't hack it anymore, but still want the steady paycheck?

The difference is that with a 35+ contract there are no options. The team is stuck with the cap hit regardless. Whereas if say, Crosby can no longer play at some point he can retire and his salary goes away. He could work out something with the team. He could get a salary for making mall appearances but it doesn't affect their salary cap. Of course there's still some risk but I feel a lot more comfortable with this (Weber) kind of contract than with Pronger's contract.

[Phillygrump]

We really should take the option of matching and trading after a year. The offer is structured to prevent exactly that. Nashville would be paying Weber 27 million dollars for one season. They wouldn't give him 21 mil over 3 years. They aren't going to pay him that much for one season of his services. A small market team can't afford that.

[AndyS]

i think nashville's knee jerk reaction would certainly be to do whatever it takes to keep him. stick it to the big bad flyers and show the hockey universe they mean business. then some time passes. they have a meeting this morning to review it. and that's when they really put the pen to paper and think about the big picture.

this is a breakup. this is a guy who has moved on. he was swooned by another lady and he likes what he sees. do you *really* think nashville spends the necessary $27m for ONE YEAR of shea weber? just to trade him the following year?

i'd say the chances of nashville matching are pretty slim at this point. and if they do... it's probably a huge mistake for their franchise. well, it's a huge mistake for them either way because they let it get to this point. they should have locked him down last year. that was the time to show they had a commitment to winning.

now... it's too late. shea will become a flyer and his long term deal means that cindy is going to have a real tough go of it over the next 10-15 years.

Let's get real here. If Nashville was EVER serious about re-signing Weber, they would not have gone the arbitration route last offseason & given him that 1-year deal. They would have ponied up the $ before it got to this point. They have no one to blame but themselves.

They never intended to re-sign him. They were hoping for a bidding war for a trade. Oops.

He will not remain a Predator. He will be a Flyer. The only question is what they will take in return (4 #1 picks, or a trade).

[AndyS]

The other scenario I see if Poile telling Holmgren that he'll match it unless the Schenn's, Voracek, and a first pick come back his way. He CAN choose to use matching as a bargaining chip. Holmgren foced his hand some here, no doubt, but Poile can either use it to lock up Weber long term cheaper than he might have been able to next year, or use the threat of doing it to get good returns instead of two picks in the low 20's or so.

Homer could call his bluff & then Nashville would be royally screwed.

Homer (not Poile) holds the cards here.

[Phillygrump]

I meant we should take that option out of discussion.

[radoran]

See, now that was my original point. We had to pay them, right? Can't the same thing happen with all these 10+ year deals people are signing lately? Aren't teams going to be paying for guys who can't hack it anymore, but still want the steady paycheck?

The difference is how the contracts are structured (not only the 35+ angle)

Rathje was making $3.5M a year. Each year. If he retired when he got injured, IIRC he left $10.5M (three years) on the table.

If Weber gets to 37 and doesn't want to play three more years at $1M a piece, he's got $107M in the bank already. Leaving the $3M - while "a lot" to you and me - is a drop in the bucket at that point for him.

And if, heaven forbid, Weber has a career ending injury in game 2 of his first season of this deal - he's STILL guaranteed *at least* all of his signing bonuses ($68M) even if the Flyers kick him to the curb (which they likely wouldn't).

Rathje/Hatcher and Weber are, if not apples and oranges, at least oranges and tangelos.

[radoran]

Homer could call his bluff & then Nashville would be royally screwed.

Homer (not Poile) holds the cards here.

Weber held more cards than Poile thought. When he signed the sheet, it took Poile's options off the table.

It would be a sad for Homer to not get Weber here, but the Flyers are still a legit contender without him.

Nashville should have ponied up the bucks last season. Now they're faced with losing Suter and Weber for a grand total of four draft picks and Radulov (addition by subtraction?) for nothing.

[Bakanekimiwa]

The other scenario I see if Poile telling Holmgren that he'll match it unless the Schenn's, Voracek, and a first pick come back his way. He CAN choose to use matching as a bargaining chip. Holmgren foced his hand some here, no doubt, but Poile can either use it to lock up Weber long term cheaper than he might have been able to next year, or use the threat of doing it to get good returns instead of two picks in the low 20's or so.

that is possible. but, i just don't see why homer needs to budge, unless it's completely under his terms. poiler wanted schenn and cooter and now he's def not getting either. homer doesn't have to give up anything, but 4 1sts at this point. sure, homer could offer him a saving face package of some picks and lesser prospects, but one thing is clear... this move guarantees that we get our man for a bargain basement price or we don't get him at all.

if we don't get him at all, this could sink a franchise right out of nashville. homer played hardball with poile. i do feel a little bad for nashville and their fans over this. but, it's a big boy game and the owners were playing softball with weber and got smacked.

[radoran]

if we don't get him at all, this could sink a franchise right out of nashville. homer played hardball with poile. i do feel a little bad for nashville and their fans over this. but, it's a big boy game and the owners were playing softball with weber and got smacked.

In the NFL "small market" teams can survive, thrive and win (see: Bay, Green) because of the revenue sharing which really levels the playing field for the franchises. If yor franchise does something really stupid like trade all yor draft picks for Herschel Walker, you can really screw up but in general you can compete.

In the NHL, Comcast is sitting on $2.44B in cash right now. Yes, BILLION.

They could buy TEN Nashville Predators and still have $800M on hand.

I don't see how a Nashville (Columbus, etc.) can compete in this league under these circumstances. Term limits on contracts, eliminating or restricting "signing bonuses" are two ways to Zamboni the ice but as long as you have "haves" that can get the value of the "have nots" in interest on their current holdings it's not going to be "fair."

[Bakanekimiwa]

In the NFL "small market" teams can survive, thrive and win (see: Bay, Green) because of the revenue sharing which really levels the playing field for the franchises. If yor franchise does something really stupid like trade all yor draft picks for Herschel Walker, you can really screw up but in general you can compete.

In the NHL, Comcast is sitting on $2.44B in cash right now. Yes, BILLION.

They could buy TEN Nashville Predators and still have $800M on hand.

I don't see how a Nashville (Columbus, etc.) can compete in this league under these circumstances. Term limits on contracts, eliminating or restricting "signing bonuses" are two ways to Zamboni the ice but as long as you have "haves" that can get the value of the "have nots" in interest on their current holdings it's not going to be "fair."

yup.. something's gonna give here. probably with this new CBA. but, in the meanwhile, homer took his shot and it was a big one. he leveraged comcast's deep pockets and went all in on nashville. i don't really see what option nashville has other than to fold here. this is a bad spot for them.

[pags569]

I am absolutely loving this but will not allow myself to get too excited until we have a done deal next week. Seems like all signs are pointing in favor of Weber becoming a Flyer and I hope it stays that way. I do have a questions about contracts and moving players around. You guys are pretty knowledgeable when it comes to that stuff so I'll defer to the board.

When does Prongers contract get moved to the LTI list? As I understand it, and I could be wrong, the Flyers have 12 + million in cap space but that includes Pronger going on the LTI list at the start of the season. If that is the case it has been stated that we may not have the room to resign Voracek NOW, but could fit his salary in after the start of the season. Aren't teams allowed to exceed the cap by 10% in the offseason and must be cap compliant when the puck drops in October? Could the Flyers sign Voracek and go over the cap amount this summer and just put Pronger on the LTIL the start of the season? I have heard other suggestions that we could just hide a big contract in the AHL....who would the options be?

[AJgoal]

Pags, the Flyers are allowed to exceed the cap by 10% during the summer, for an offseason cap of 77.22 Million. Should the Weber deal go through, the Flyers would be at 70,268,373 With the following signed:

Hartnell/Giroux/Schenn

Simmonds/Briere/Read

Talbot/Couturier/Rinaldo

Wellwood/Fedotenko/Shelley

Pronger/Timonen

Weber/Coburn

Meszaros/Schenn

Grosmann/Lilja

Gervais

Now, you also have to include all players with one-way contracts at their full cap hit, and all players with two way contracts at a proration of the hit based on the number of games played for the big club the previous year:

Walker: 1.7 million

Gustafsson: 329,268

Manning:43,902

Homstrom: 45,731

So as it stands, the Flyers are at 72.4 Million or so. That leaves a bit more than 4.82 million in available off-season cap space. That should be enough to get Jake and Bourdon under contract, with a bit to spare. And since that about equals Pronger's cap hit, there should be little ramification when the regular season rolls around and he goes on LTIR.

[fanaticV3.0]

The difference is that with a 35+ contract there are no options. The team is stuck with the cap hit regardless. Whereas if say, Crosby can no longer play at some point he can retire and his salary goes away. He could work out something with the team. He could get a salary for making mall appearances but it doesn't affect their salary cap. Of course there's still some risk but I feel a lot more comfortable with this (Weber) kind of contract than with Pronger's contract.

This is fantastic news in the player actually agrees to retire. But what happens if he doesn't? I know rad mentioned Andreychuk's situation, but what if it's not exactly the same? It's easy to force someone like him (because of his age) into retirement. Waive him, he refuses to report, the rest is history. I get that.

But what if it's a guy who is simply not at the level he was before? Say he's in his early 30s and can still clearly play, just not at the level you'd want for his salary? You're pretty much f-cked, no? You could try trading him, but who is going to play for a guy that has 5-7 more years on his contact and has seen a drop in his play? Or am I missing something?

[AJgoal]

Cap floor teams are likely to take a shot at him. They'd be looking at picking up 6.8 million of space towards the cap over the 1 million they'd be paying Weber in each of the last 3 years. To teams looking to reach the floor, the real money is what matters.

[pags569]

Pags, the Flyers are allowed to exceed the cap by 10% during the summer, for an offseason cap of 77.22 Million. Should the Weber deal go through, the Flyers would be at 70,268,373 With the following signed:

Hartnell/Giroux/Schenn

Simmonds/Briere/Read

Talbot/Couturier/Rinaldo

Wellwood/Fedotenko/Shelley

Pronger/Timonen

Weber/Coburn

Meszaros/Schenn

Grosmann/Lilja

Gervais

Now, you also have to include all players with one-way contracts at their full cap hit, and all players with two way contracts at a proration of the hit based on the number of games played for the big club the previous year:

Walker: 1.7 million

Gustafsson: 329,268

Manning:43,902

Homstrom: 45,731

So as it stands, the Flyers are at 72.4 Million or so. That leaves a bit more than 4.82 million in available off-season cap space. That should be enough to get Jake and Bourdon under contract, with a bit to spare. And since that about equals Pronger's cap hit, there should be little ramification when the regular season rolls around and he goes on LTIR.

Thanks AJ! If what you're saying is true, why would the Flyers need to do anything other than resign Voracek and Bourdon along with send Nashville our draft picks?

[JackStraw]

Like I said, there's always risk. The point is, there is more risk with an over 35 contract. That's all. Look at the Luongo situation. Vancouver will probably trade him and get out from under that contract. They won't get what they would have gotten before he lost his starting job, but they'll get something. The Flyers aren't ever going to anything for Pronger, nor can they do anything to get his contract off the books.

[AJgoal]

No, they would not.

[fanaticV3.0]

The difference is how the contracts are structured (not only the 35+ angle)

Rathje was making $3.5M a year. Each year. If he retired when he got injured, IIRC he left $10.5M (three years) on the table.

If Weber gets to 37 and doesn't want to play three more years at $1M a piece, he's got $107M in the bank already. Leaving the $3M - while "a lot" to you and me - is a drop in the bucket at that point for him.

And if, heaven forbid, Weber has a career ending injury in game 2 of his first season of this deal - he's STILL guaranteed *at least* all of his signing bonuses ($68M) even if the Flyers kick him to the curb (which they likely wouldn't).

Rathje/Hatcher and Weber are, if not apples and oranges, at least oranges and tangelos.

I understand the first part and also understand that kind of money to a guy like that may mean more to him, but do you really think atheletes of all people are going to say "I'll pas" to free money for donig nothing? Regardless of whether they need it or not?

[Mad Dog]

It would be a sad for Homer to not get Weber here, but the Flyers are still a legit contender without him.

I don't want to steer the thread in a different direction, but I am not sure I see it this way, Rad.

This team - the way it is constructed now and assuming this is the team that is going to start the '12-'13 season - has some question marks, with goaltending being the biggest one. I know this has been debated in excrutiating detail, and I know there are people who expect Bryz to play well this season, but I just don't see it... of course I am hopeful of being very, very wrong.

The defense, if it stays the way it is, is a bit suspect as well. Timonen is aging. He is aging fast. He was burned on many occasions last year and I don't know how that would change. Meszaros is coming back after a very serious injury and long absense. Coburn is a fine defenseman, but he's been fairly sporadic. And I don't hold my breath on Luke Schenn at all. Without a fast, flexible puck-moving d-man, this team will continue having hard time with transition.

And the offense got weaker. I actually expected JVR to finally break out with a full summer to recuperate and rest and was looking forward to him taking on a big role next year, but that's neither here or there.

I don't want to be negative, but I just don't know how people can consider this team being a legit contender. Based on what? What gives you so much confidence?

Edited July 20, 2012 by Mad Dog

[fanaticV3.0]

Like I said, there's always risk. The point is, there is more risk with an over 35 contract. That's all. Look at the Luongo situation. Vancouver will probably trade him and get out from under that contract. They won't get what they would have gotten before he lost his starting job, but they'll get something. The Flyers aren't ever going to anything for Pronger, nor can they do anything to get his contract off the books.

I will - and with great interest - once he's actually traded.

[ruxpin]

I don't want to steer the thread in a different direction, but I am not sure I see it this way, Rad.

This team - the way it is constructed now and assuming this is the team that is going to start the '12-'13 season - has some question marks, with goaltending being the biggest one. I know this has been debated in excrutiating detail, and I know there are people who expect Bryz to play well this season, but I just don't see it... of course I am hopeful of being very, very wrong.

The defense, if it stays the way it is, is a bit suspect as well. Timonen is aging. He is aging fast. He was burned on many occasions last year and I don't know how that would change. Meszaros is coming back after a very serious injury and long absense. Coburn is a fine defenseman, but he's been fairly sporadic. And I don't hold my breath on Luke Schenn at all. Without a fast, flexible puck-moving d-man, this team will continue having hard time with transition.

And the offense got weaker. I actually expected JVR to finally break out with a full summer to recuperate and rest and was looking forward to him taking on a big role next year, but that's neither here or there.

I don't want to be negative, but I just don't know how people can consider this team being a legit contender. Based on what? What gives you so much confidence?

Good Lord, MD.

In a discussion of "half full/half empty" glasses, I fully expect you to say "doesn't matter. Tastes like **** either way!"

I was actually contentedly reading along and saying "eh, plausible" until I came to this: "I actually expected JVR to finally break out with a full summer to recuperate and rest and was looking forward to him taking on a big role next year."

I don't see how anyone can "expect" this when he's shown no ability to date to be remotely consistent or consistently focused. I realize Jagr, JVR and, probably, Voracek are gone (especially if we do sign Weber), but I dont think there will be a huge drop off on offense. Wellwood will cover Voracek's absense. Someone will step up and cover Jagr, and there's absolutely NOTHING from this season to discuss in terms of covering for JVR.

I do think that as far as the D goes that it is imperative to sign Weber or have a very substantial plan B. Without Weber, it's a fairly weak D.

[hf101]

radoran posted:

Friday, July 20, 2012 12:43 PM

Ruxpin posted: I don't want to steer the thread in a different direction, but I am not sure I see it this way, Rad.

This team - the way it is constructed now and assuming this is the team that is going to start the '12-'13 season - has some question marks, with goaltending being the biggest one. I know this has been debated in excrutiating detail, and I know there are people who expect Bryz to play well this season, but I just don't see it... of course I am hopeful of being very, very wrong.

The defense, if it stays the way it is, is a bit suspect as well. Timonen is aging. He is aging fast. He was burned on many occasions last year and I don't know how that would change. Meszaros is coming back after a very serious injury and long absense. Coburn is a fine defenseman, but he's been fairly sporadic. And I don't hold my breath on Luke Schenn at all. Without a fast, flexible puck-moving d-man, this team will continue having hard time with transition.

And the offense got weaker. I actually expected JVR to finally break out with a full summer to recuperate and rest and was looking forward to him taking on a big role next year, but that's neither here or there.

I don't want to be negative, but I just don't know how people can consider this team being a legit contender. Based on what? What gives you so much confidence?