The Decline of Vinny Lecavalier?

[radoran]

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/2/25/5387386/philadelphia-flyers-vincent-lecavalier-even-strength-possession-yikes

 

Vincent Lecavalier's time in Philadelphia hasn't gotten off to the start most fans were hoping for. That's pretty evident. Let's take a deeper look at what's happened throughout his first 59 games (46, really - he missed 13 due to injury) as a member of the Philadelphia Flyers; is the Vinny hate warranted? Can No. 40 really be considered the team's LVP through the season thus far?

 

Lots of stats and analysis on Broad Street Hockey. some interesting fodder for discussion.

 

Special guest appearance by Matt Carle.

[King Knut]

Dude's a center for his whole career now playing RW after starting at LW and fractured his back this year already and come back.

I think I'm okay with his production in light of it all.

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/2/25/5387386/philadelphia-flyers-vincent-lecavalier-even-strength-possession-yikes

Lots of stats and analysis on Broad Street Hockey. some interesting fodder for discussion.

Special guest appearance by Matt Carle.

[DaGreatGazoo]

Those numbers are very interesting.  However, I also think injuries are a huge part of his down turn.  Granted, they shouldn't have signed him to begin with, but he was one of/the best forward going early on.  Then he got hurt in the Caps brawl, and even worse, he then hurt his back.  The article mentions "back spasms", IIRC, it was a BROKEN BONE in his lower back.  He's been down right bad at times, since returning from the injury.

 

What pisses me off, almost as much as the 5 year contract, is that Homer said "he wanted to be big down the middle" or something like that.  So, we sign an aging, possibly breaking down center, and 2.5 months into his 1st year, throw him on the wing, where he says he's never played, and isn't comfortable.

 

That my friends, is how you build a team.  

 

***edit for Ebonics style grammar***

Edited February 26, 2014 by DaGreatGazoo

[brelic]

We signed a center when we already had 5 (Giroux, Schenn, Couturier, Talbot, Hall) under contract and fighting for 4 spots.

Classic Flyers.

Then they move him to the wing.

Vintage Flyers.

Brayden Schenn will be moved at the deadline or the offseason. Book it.

Quintessential Flyers.

[radoran]

Dude's a center for his whole career now playing RW after starting at LW and fractured his back this year already and come back.

I think I'm okay with his production in light of it all.

 

I "didn't mind" the deal if he was going to play the role expected (Top 6 center) and produce roughly 20/50 annually.

 

As the article points out, they got out from a long term commitment to Briere and ended their logjam at center and then... signed a longer term deal with another veteran center. Who they then moved to wing.

 

The article also points out that "production" isn't the only important evaluator - it's back to the "logjam" at center and now they're (again) playing a career-long center at wing. And his impact on the Corsi - if nothing else - of his linemates is significant (and in a bad way).

 

More and more, it is apparent that the deal - while "OK" in concept - is really turning out badly in execution. The play on the ice is on the player. The decision to put him on the ice wasn't.

 

He's "on pace" for 20-21 goals and 40 or so points in 82 games. That's "not bad" (he's projects to "actually" produce 18g 16a based on ppg over the next 23).  But he hasn't played a full season in four years - isn't going to play one now - and has basically seen his production on a downward trend the whole time. His brief uptick in production was in 12-13 when he hit .82 ppg - which was 32 points in just 39 games in a lockout-shortened season (in which he still didn't play a full season).

 

He's also sitting on a -15 (worst on the team). The other double-digit minuses are Adam Hall (-12), Zac Rinaldo (-11) and Nicklas Grossman (-10).

And he's signed for four more years.

[flyercanuck]

It just boggles the mind how a team can watch the same things happen over and over again,in a bad way, yet continue to do those same things.

 

 I'll be pleasantly shocked if Holmgren doesn't "go for it" again at this deadline. I'd be even more pleasantly shocked if he'd deal VLC and Streit, but who else in their right minds would want those contracts?

 

 I can't wait til Vinnies contract runs out so we can sign Gaborik.

[King Knut]

Oh, don't worry, I'm not defending the deal, but I am mildly defending the player.

 

The bigger part of the problem for me than Vinny's role as a winger is that they signed him and Jagr was available again.

Add to that the dismissal of an apparently healthy Gagne and two natural easily gotten wingers elude Homer who would have been a better fit and who (especially Jagr who would have produced far more) would have probably given you similar numbers.

 

But VLC knew he was going to be a winger when he signed.  There was never any confusion over him being a top 6 center.  He was never going to be and I don't think anyone ever discussed it.  That he hasn't been embracing that from the start is far more upsetting.

 

 

 

I "didn't mind" the deal if he was going to play the role expected (Top 6 center) and produce roughly 20/50 annually.

 

As the article points out, they got out from a long term commitment to Briere and ended their logjam at center and then... signed a longer term deal with another veteran center. Who they then moved to wing.

 

The article also points out that "production" isn't the only important evaluator - it's back to the "logjam" at center and now they're (again) playing a career-long center at wing. And his impact on the Corsi - if nothing else - of his linemates is significant (and in a bad way).

 

More and more, it is apparent that the deal - while "OK" in concept - is really turning out badly in execution. The play on the ice is on the player. The decision to put him on the ice wasn't.

 

He's "on pace" for 20-21 goals and 40 or so points in 82 games. That's "not bad" (he's projects to "actually" produce 18g 16a based on ppg over the next 23).  But he hasn't played a full season in four years - isn't going to play one now - and has basically seen his production on a downward trend the whole time. His brief uptick in production was in 12-13 when he hit .82 ppg - which was 32 points in just 39 games in a lockout-shortened season (in which he still didn't play a full season).

 

He's also sitting on a -15 (worst on the team). The other double-digit minuses are Adam Hall (-12), Zac Rinaldo (-11) and Nicklas Grossman (-10).

And he's signed for four more years.

[King Knut]

You don't have to like the contract, but this team desperately needs Streit right now.  Aside from Mezaros' flashes, Mark is the only offense coming from the blue line... and it's not at all insignificant (or it wasn't before the Olympics anyway).

I'll be pleasantly shocked if Holmgren doesn't "go for it" again at this deadline. I'd be even more pleasantly shocked if he'd deal VLC and Streit, but who else in their right minds would want those contracts?

[radoran]

But VLC knew he was going to be a winger when he signed.  There was never any confusion over him being a top 6 center.  He was never going to be and I don't think anyone ever discussed it.  That he hasn't been embracing that from the start is far more upsetting.

 

No, he didn't. He was signed - as Gazoo noted - to make the Flyers "big down the middle." He's listed as a "center" on the team's own roster page. He was pencilled in as the 2nd line center from the moment the pen hit the paper - and played center to start the season until he got injured.

 

Here's Homer from the team's own press release on the team's own website:

We added one of the better players in the NHL in my opinion in Vinny Lecavalier. Having him play in the middle for us either with Claude [Giroux] or with Sean [Couturier] as a 1-2-3 punch makes [both players] better just by him being there

 

He does go on to say

 

Maybe he can play right wing or left wing with one of those guys from time to time. It gives us more looks and more options for our coach to try.

 

Doesn't sound like a guy who was told he's playing wing from the time he was signed.

 

If you look at his game log you can see where he was taking significant faceoffs early in the season and then again in November.

 

Totally concur on signing VLC over guys who were "actual" wingers.

[flyercanuck]

You don't have to like the contract, but this team desperately needs Streit right now.  Aside from Mezaros' flashes, Mark is the only offense coming from the blue line... and it's not at all insignificant (or it wasn't before the Olympics anyway).

 

 

 And it just continues the process of keeping the fans under the illusion the teams a cup competitor. Were we a VLC and a Streit away from beating the likes of Boston, Pittsburgh and Chicago? No? Then why go and sign guys like that who will only get worse as the years of those contracts drag on?

[King Knut]

As much as I don't like this and am terrified of it, Center is what we have (and if what is said about Laughton can be believed we have even more in house already).

 

No more of this Luke Schenn type Bull, but if you can move Brayden for a real D man, the kind we need, do you do it?

Do you risk moving Laughton only to have that come back and haunt you?

I don't think you can risk it with Coots either, IMHO (and apparently the team's as well)  he's the best of the bunch at this point. 

 

The whole idea of this "draft the best player" strategy is that you'll eventually have to move that best player for the component you need.

 

Someone's gotta go.  If Schenn goes it will not be for the sake of VLC playing Center on the 2nd line, it will be for the sake of bringing Laughton up next year and seeing what he's got and getting a real defenseman in the process.

 

Who among us wouldn't package BOTH Schenns to Nashville for Weber this summer?

 

If Laughton isn't ready in the fall, you can fall back on VLC as a Center.

 

I'm not saying this is a real possibility (though the rumor mill keeps churning up Weber to the Flyers doesn't it?)  But more as a theoretical.  We need better D men. 

 

I don't want to dish another forward who will make me feel sick to my stomach every game like Reemer is doing...  but as long as we get better than Luke Schenn in return, it's kinda what needs to happen.  If Luke Schenn were playing like an animal, the Reemer thing wouldn't bug me. 

 

 

 

 

Brayden Schenn will be moved at the deadline or the offseason. Book it.

[radoran]

Who among us wouldn't package BOTH Schenns to Nashville for Weber this summer?

 

That sound you hear is Dave Poile rolling on the floor laughing his ass off.

[flyercanuck]

@King Knut

 

 The problem is the guy who is going to trade Brayden Schenn for that good defenceman is the guy who traded JVR for that "good" defenceman.

[King Knut]

Who thought that? They're band aids. Make ups for not keeping Jagr and Carle two years ago.

Of course the team says they're competitive. Why would they say they're not? How's that help anything.

These guys are transitional band aids that homer realized too late (after jags and Carle left and the team stank) tht he couldn't do without.

Anyone who saw them as competitive last brick moves was deluding himself and if you'll forgive me is doing most of the imagination work on his own.

And it just continues the process of keeping the fans under the illusion the teams a cup competitor. Were we a VLC and a Streit away from beating the likes of Boston, Pittsburgh and Chicago? No? Then why go and sign guys like that who will only get worse as the years of those contracts drag on?

[JackStraw]

As great as Vinnie used to be, and in spite of the fact that I think he can still be pretty good when he's healthy, this is one of Homer's worst moves imo. Completely pointless signing. Unless management feels it's absolutely essential for the Flyers to have at least one declining overpaid center on the team at all times.

[King Knut]

What about my post DIDN'T express that it was a hypothetical to explain the point? I said it was nonsense to illustrate why we have o trade someone at some point. Either Brayden or Laughton most likely.

But while we're on the subject of poille, that dude Ain't laughing much these days. If he's rolling aroun in the floor, he's looking for loose change to pay the Zambians driver.. Which is exactly why he ain't trading Weber. He already footed the extras out of his own pocket for the dude. Why on earth would he trade him now that the team is finally paying for jut his salary?

That sound you hear is Dave Poile rolling on the floor laughing his ass off.

[fanaticV3.0]

You don't have to like the contract, but this team desperately needs Streit right now.  Aside from Mezaros' flashes, Mark is the only offense coming from the blue line... and it's not at all insignificant (or it wasn't before the Olympics anyway).

 

I agree with his production. I don't like his contract either, but I'm really not unhappy with his numbers at all. He's likely going to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 points and I'm ok with that.

 

I have to disagree that the team desperately needs him though. What the team desperately needs (besides a winger) is defenseman who can play in their own end. I'm not diminishing his numbers, I just said I'm happy with him, but if there's one pet peeve I have it's when people talk about offense (from defense) when the team obviously needs defense. I hate it when somebody says the team needs to improve team D and the first thing they mention when talking about acquiring players is a one-way, offensive defenseman. I completely understand the need of getting some points from the blueline, but can't stand it when that is confused for "defense".

[OccamsRazor]

Lots of stats and analysis on Broad Street Hockey.

 

The most alarming stat and i posted this last night in the shout box but maybe no one saw it was this....

 

Vinny's WOWY from the first 59 games of the season shows that every single player that has shared over 83 5-on-5 minutes with Lecavalier gets a higher percentage of shot attempts when he's not on the ice with them. Every single player. Luke Schenn and Mark Streit, chastised for their own bad play at one point or another this season, look pretty dang respectable away from Lecavalier.

 

 

 

DAAAAAAYYYYYYYYUUUUUMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!   

 

Only 4 more years whats the worst that could happen??????? DON'T ANSWER THAT!!!!

Edited February 26, 2014 by OccamsRazor

[brelic]

No more of this Luke Schenn type Bull, but if you can move Brayden for a real D man, the kind we need, do you do it?

Define "real D man". THat's a pretty broad statement. And if by "real D man" you mean top pairing D man, it will cost you much more than Brayden Schenn.

Just look at this quote from Homer:

 

"I like the way our defense has played. I know it's not a sexy defense," Holmgren said. "Is there a 'Bobby Orr' out there we can get? Probably not. I think our defense has played pretty good overall. Could we improve? I don't know."

Is there a "Bobby Orr" out there??? That WE can get?? I mean, is he delusional enough to think that if there were a Bobby Orr - and I read that as Hall of Fame defenseman playing at a Bobby Orr level right now - why on Earth would any team trade him? And if for some inexplicable reason they did want to trade him, can you imagine the cost? There's no middle ground with him. It's either a defense that is 'not sexy' or look for a 'Bobby Orr'.

I just don't understand this team's philosophy. Good chess players are several moves ahead of their opponent. Homer is the kind of guy who asks "What's chess?"

[OccamsRazor]

Homer is the kind of guy who asks "What's chess?"

 

 

No but he is outstanding when it comes to checkers.  

 

 

KING ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[King Knut]

I fear you may be taking both Homer and me a bit too literally.

 

By a "real D man" I mean anyone who's a little smarter and more versatile than who we're skating.

We need the guy Luke Schenn was supposed to be.  We need Kimmo of 6-7 years ago.  We need Matt Carle back.  Each piece we have does some things okay to well, but almost no one can a few things well and none of them is a full package.

 

YES.  it's not an easy role to fill which is why it's sort of idiotic to think you can trade for one.  You can't.  Certainly not at the deadline unless his team aint making the playoffs and these guys tend to be on teams that make the playoffs.  This is probably the inherent flaw in the "Draft the best player" philosophy.  All players are not created equal.  And as we now see Talented young Centers are cheaper by the dozen.

 

I think Homer's comments you've posted are rhetorical.  What is he going to say?  "Yeah, our defensemen aren't good enough to compete and we're in real trouble if we don't get one?"  How's that work?  He has to say nice things about the team he has in the press!  Doesn't mean he doesn't want to upgrade off the record.

 

And the Bobby Orr thing is clearly just more rhetorical smack talk.  He's actually just adding a dash of rhetorical realism suggesting that of course it's possible that better players than our current squad exist and that if one of those top tier D men were available, he'd want him of course... but he knows they're probably not... but another reason he bothers saying this is so other GMs who might actually be thinking about dishing some salary or a D man at the end of a contract will get the idea to call him up and say, "I know you said Bobby Orr isn't out there, but how about my guy?"

 

He uses Bobby Orr as an example because if he were to say "Shea Weber" or "Drew Doughty" or whoever he would be showing his hand a bit to the GM he might actually try to get someone from.  Just to reiterate, in no way is either of those a possibility, but I have no idea what names Homer might actually be discussing with people (Andrew MacDonald has been theorized now that the Isles are done, and while I think it's a legit possibility, but as a UFA next year, I can't see giving anyone decent up for him). 

 

GMs talk in code.  They say what they need to say to support the team while dangling hypotheses out there in between the lines for GMs and Agents to take the bait on.

 

Homer used to be a very good chess player at that sort of crap I think, but at this point he's not pulling one over on any other GM anymore they've seen his moves.  They know what he's doing. 

 

It's the putting a decent team together brand of chess that he's always been a bit behind on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Define "real D man". THat's a pretty broad statement. And if by "real D man" you mean top pairing D man, it will cost you much more than Brayden Schenn.

Just look at this quote from Homer:


Quote
 

"I like the way our defense has played. I know it's not a sexy defense," Holmgren said. "Is there a 'Bobby Orr' out there we can get? Probably not. I think our defense has played pretty good overall. Could we improve? I don't know."


Is there a "Bobby Orr" out there??? That WE can get?? I mean, is he delusional enough to think that if there were a Bobby Orr - and I read that as Hall of Fame defenseman playing at a Bobby Orr level right now - why on Earth would any team trade him? And if for some inexplicable reason they did want to trade him, can you imagine the cost? There's no middle ground with him. It's either a defense that is 'not sexy' or look for a 'Bobby Orr'.

I just don't understand this team's philosophy. Good chess players are several moves ahead of their opponent. Homer is the kind of guy who asks "What's chess?"

[Bakanekimiwa]

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/2/25/5387386/philadelphia-flyers-vincent-lecavalier-even-strength-possession-yikes

 

 

 

Lots of stats and analysis on Broad Street Hockey. some interesting fodder for discussion.

 

Special guest appearance by Matt Carle.

 

 

he's playing out of position... the conversation should end here. the Flyers... once again, have misused an asset and have proven their short-sightedness by signing another center when they knew they wanted to develop Schenn. 

 

I still think he's being hampered by his back injury, but at any rate... if we need a scoring winger who can play PP min... Simon Gagne says hello(waiting by his phone for the flyers to call)

[murraycraven]

he's playing out of position... the conversation should end here. the Flyers... once again, have misused an asset and have proven their short-sightedness by signing another center when they knew they wanted to develop Schenn. 

 

I still think he's being hampered by his back injury, but at any rate... if we need a scoring winger who can play PP min... Simon Gagne says hello(waiting by his phone for the flyers to call)

 

 

weel said Bak...  total misuse of assets.

[brelic]

I fear you may be taking both Homer and me a bit too literally.

 

By a "real D man" I mean anyone who's a little smarter and more versatile than who we're skating.

We need the guy Luke Schenn was supposed to be.  We need Kimmo of 6-7 years ago.  We need Matt Carle back.  Each piece we have does some things okay to well, but almost no one can a few things well and none of them is a full package.

Andrew MacDonald would be an interesting pick up, as you suggest. He's still young, is currently dirt cheap, and has played a lot with Streit. He also blocks a ton of shots, and has a lot more offensive flair than Grossmann. But he will probably command a hefty raise... $2-3M range? He's pretty underpaid at $550K.

Make it a Vanek/MacDonald package deal for LeCavalier and Grossmann. They get players under contract, we get expiring players. Seems fair

[King Knut]

2-3 million?  Sign him up! 

 

Mr. Snow, can I show you something in a size Grossman?

 

$2-3M range? He's pretty underpaid at $550K.