Re-Signing MacDonald

[Vanflyer]

McDaddy

 

Isnt it odd how seemingly innocuous trades come to life. I hate the write ups in the papers about Mac (as they do not know anything most of the time), but at this juncture, and if I keep seeing this through the playoffs (particularly steadying Schenn), I will give him the 4.5 he wants. 

Edited March 24, 2014 by radoran
split from another thread

[jammer2]

Isnt it odd how seemingly innocuous trades come to life. I hate the write ups in the papers about Mac (as they do not know anything most of the time), but at this juncture, and if I keep seeing this through the playoffs (particularly steadying Schenn), I will give him the 4.5 he wants. 

 

 Oh, for sure. His impact is not overlooked from where I sit. I'd be willing to go up to 5-5.2m which would be a fair compromise, cause I'm sure he could get 6+ on the UFA market.

[flyercanuck]

@jammer2

 

 The Isles did offer him an 800% increase in pay and he turned it down.

[brelic]

I'm wondering how messed up is the Isles organization to give up McDonald for such a cheap price....and why not resign this guy, considering his play and relative value, they should have been all over an extension. He's one of the building blocks a fairly young org should have identified as untouchable, or very close anyways. You simply don't let dependable guys like that walk. That tells me either Snow can't rate talent properly, or Charles Wang tied his hands, either way it's UGLY for the Islanders season ticket holders, who are already dealing with the team pulling up stakes and leaving for a different city.....WHAT A MESS....LOL!

 

From what I understand, he turned down a 4 year, $16M contract from the Isles. 

[AJgoal]

But how much of that was because it was the Isles, and he wanted out?

 

He's averaged just under 0.3 ppg and is a career -12. His best season, statistically, was 2010-2011 when he had 27 points and was a +9. Compare that with Matt Carle who is a 0.43ppg player, whose best season was also 2010-2011 when he put up 40 points and was a +30. By that measure, he's not worth Carle money. But it's hard to judge what he'd make on the open market since he played on some bad Islanders teams, so he might get paid a little more on perceived upside.

[brelic]

But how much of that was because it was the Isles, and he wanted out?

 

He's averaged just under 0.3 ppg and is a career -12. His best season, statistically, was 2010-2011 when he had 27 points and was a +9. Compare that with Matt Carle who is a 0.43ppg player, whose best season was also 2010-2011 when he put up 40 points and was a +30. By that measure, he's not worth Carle money. But it's hard to judge what he'd make on the open market since he played on some bad Islanders teams, so he might get paid a little more on perceived upside.

 

That's true, but he turned down $4M, and Carle is making $5.5M, which is 38% more.

 

He shouldn't get anywhere near $5.5M, I agree with you. Maybe $4M or $4.25M from the Flyers gets it done.

[radoran]

 Oh, for sure. His impact is not overlooked from where I sit. I'd be willing to go up to 5-5.2m which would be a fair compromise, cause I'm sure he could get 6+ on the UFA market.

 

If he can get $6M on the market - which I completely disagree with - then he's going to wait for it.

 

I'd be shocked if he got over $5M. Of course, I've been shocked before.

 

Guy is a second-pairing defenceman. Anyone paying a second-pairing defenceman $6M is out of their damn minds.

 

Cue: Homer.

[AJgoal]

Problem is, when you look at comparables, Enstrom (5.75) and Myers (5.25) line right up with MacDonald. So do Hjalmarsson and Methot. But you know MacDonald's agent is going to shoot for something in the 5.5+ range if he hits the open market. I'm sure most teams would prefer to get him in the 3.25 range of the other two.

[radoran]

Problem is, when you look at comparables, Enstrom (5.75) and Myers (5.25) line right up with MacDonald. So do Hjalmarsson and Methot. But you know MacDonald's agent is going to shoot for something in the 5.5+ range if he hits the open market. I'm sure most teams would prefer to get him in the 3.25 range of the other two.

 

Just curious, but where do you see them as "comparables"?

 

Enstrom has 245 points in 474 career games (.51 ppg) and has hit 50 in a season twice. Myers' rookie season was a 48-point debut and he has 138 in 317 (.43 ppg). His current deal takes him through 2019.

 

MacDonald has never even broken thirty points and has 90 in 303 games (.29 ppg).

 

Enstrom and Myers have established offensive sides to their game that MacDonald simply has not shown and they are both competent in their own end.

 

MacD is a competent guy in his end and has some potential upside on the offensive side.

 

He may get $5+M, but I think that's ridiculous and $6M is simply nutso money.

[AJgoal]

An agent's job is to get the most money for himself, er, his client, right? If so, as an agent, I am going to make the most favorable argument I can. And that argument is this:

 

"The cap is going up. Look at my player, who played most of his season as the #1 defenseman on a terrible team. Let's look at two players with similar numbers this year who played on bad teams. Tobias Enstrom and Tyler Myers produced 0.36ppg, my client produced 0.35ppg, a negligible difference. In fact, in fewer games, Myers had a worse +/- than my player in fewer games, and Enstrom's Winnipeg has only scored 4 more goals than the Islanders did (at this point)."

 

Of course there are counter arguments, but they won't be made until actual negotiations start. Depending on the agent and where MacDonald's head really is, he could very easily believe he's worth 5+ million, and he could get it if his agent talks him into hitting the open market.

[radoran]

An agent's job is to get the most money for himself, er, his client, right? If so, as an agent, I am going to make the most favorable argument I can. And that argument is this:

 

"The cap is going up. Look at my player, who played most of his season as the #1 defenseman on a terrible team. Let's look at two players with similar numbers this year who played on bad teams. Tobias Enstrom and Tyler Myers produced 0.36ppg, my client produced 0.35ppg, a negligible difference. In fact, in fewer games, Myers had a worse +/- than my player in fewer games, and Enstrom's Winnipeg has only scored 4 more goals than the Islanders did (at this point)."

 

Of course there are counter arguments, but they won't be made until actual negotiations start. Depending on the agent and where MacDonald's head really is, he could very easily believe he's worth 5+ million, and he could get it if his agent talks him into hitting the open market.

 

I could see his agent convincing him to test the market. I just don't think he's worth it.

 

You can "make the argument" but the Flyers can turn around and point out that he has one (1) point in a Flyer uniform this season (.125 ppg). And certainly GMS look far beyond "this year" as a benchmark for what a player can/has/will do.

 

Or they certainly should. Tobias Enstrom is an established top pairing NHL defenceman. Tyler Myers is one of the most promising young players in the league.

 

Neither of those things, quite frankly, are true of Andrew MacDonald.

 

I like the player and would like them to re-sign him. If it bumps up over $5M, I just don't think I go there.

[AJgoal]

We're on the same page. I'm just saying that it's nowhere out of the realm of possibility that an agent could convince MacDonald or an NHL GM that he's worth that. Guy already turned down 4 years/16 million. I'm hoping it's more because he just wanted out of the Island than because he thinks he's worth much more than that.

[radoran]

We're on the same page. I'm just saying that it's nowhere out of the realm of possibility that an agent could convince MacDonald or an NHL GM that he's worth that. Guy already turned down 4 years/16 million. I'm hoping it's more because he just wanted out of the Island than because he thinks he's worth much more than that.

 

Yeah, just extending the conversation

 

I'm thinking he wanted out of the Island - place makes a ####show look appealing at this point.

 

To link to the Schenn discussion, the whole issue of available room comes into stark relief in this position. If they can't get MacDonald signed for less than their $4.5M in space, do they let Schenn go RFA and MacDonald UFA before they can "sign" them?

 

Tough decisions.

[AJgoal]

Well, I would think they can sign both prior to July 1, as the cap is usually set about a week earlier. They can "agree to terms" and then finalize once the cap is officially set.

[radoran]

Well, I would think they can sign both prior to July 1, as the cap is usually set about a week earlier. They can "agree to terms" and then finalize once the cap is officially set.

 

Yeah, I think there is a window between end of season and the July 1 FA - but unclear on the "terms" surrounding it.

[AJgoal]

I could see his agent convincing him to test the market. I just don't think he's worth it.

 

You can "make the argument" but the Flyers can turn around and point out that he has one (1) point in a Flyer uniform this season (.125 ppg). And certainly GMS look far beyond "this year" as a benchmark for what a player can/has/will do.

 

Or they certainly should. Tobias Enstrom is an established top pairing NHL defenceman. Tyler Myers is one of the most promising young players in the league.

 

Neither of those things, quite frankly, are true of Andrew MacDonald.

 

I like the player and would like them to re-sign him. If it bumps up over $5M, I just don't think I go there.

 

Well, Justin Faulk just helped set up the defence market. 6 years, 29 million (~4.9million aav). He's only 22 and I don't know much about how he's viewed around the league, but he has 61 points in 169 career games (0.36ppg) and is a -20. This year he's at 24 points in 65 games, and a -5.

[radoran]

Well, Justin Faulk just helped set up the defence market. 6 years, 29 million (~4.9million aav). He's only 22 and I don't know much about how he's viewed around the league, but he has 61 points in 169 career games (0.36ppg) and is a -20. This year he's at 24 points in 65 games, and a -5.

 

Sure, but Faulk's a second rounder who had 22 points in 66 games as a 19/20yo. He then "projected" to 32 points last season and 24 in 65 this season (projecting to 30). That's two "30-point" seasons before he was 24.

 

MacDonald's a sixth rounder who as a 19/20yo wasn't even in the league yet. As a rookie at 24, MacDonald put up 7 in 46 (12 points) and just had his second 25+ point year in his fifth season this year.

 

If Faulk has set the market - which is a pretty good benchmark - there's no way in heck that MacDonald should get $5M, much less $6M (as @jammer2 asserted). He's more of a defensive-first defencemen (if used correctly) who can handle himself capably in the offensive end. Even "QBing" the Islanders' power play (Tavares, Vanek, Okposo, etc.) he has all of 11 PPP this season...

 

IMO, $4.5M on a contender (i.e. Not The Island) is a slight overpayment but would be worth it given the stabilizing effect he has had.

 

Not saying some idiot GM doesn't offer him $5.5M or something - I just hope it isn't the Flyers' idiot GM.

[AJgoal]

Sure, but Faulk's a second rounder who had 22 points in 66 games as a 19/20yo. He then "projected" to 32 points last season and 24 in 65 this season (projecting to 30). That's two "30-point" seasons before he was 24.

 

MacDonald's a sixth rounder who as a 19/20yo wasn't even in the league yet. As a rookie at 24, MacDonald put up 7 in 46 (12 points) and just had his second 25+ point year in his fifth season this year.

 

If Faulk has set the market - which is a pretty good benchmark - there's no way in heck that MacDonald should get $5M, much less $6M (as @jammer2 asserted). He's more of a defensive-first defencemen (if used correctly) who can handle himself capably in the offensive end. Even "QBing" the Islanders' power play (Tavares, Vanek, Okposo, etc.) he has all of 11 PPP this season...

 

IMO, $4.5M on a contender (i.e. Not The Island) is a slight overpayment but would be worth it given the stabilizing effect he has had.

 

Not saying some idiot GM doesn't offer him $5.5M or something - I just hope it isn't the Flyers' idiot GM.

 

True. Faulk has more potential than MacDonald at this stage. MacDonald has also produced at a lower but pretty comparable clip (0.30 vs 0.36 ppg) over a longer stretch in the NHL. You also have to factor in that Faulk was an RFA, which usually deflates a player's value, as opposed to MacDonald being a UFA, which inflates it. However, I wasn't meaning to imply that Faulk's deal was what MacDonald should or would get - only that it was the start of seeing how the defense market will shake out.

 

Funny thing is this morning I started a thread with just this title where I started breaking down the stats of ten players including Faulk and comparing their contracts and production to MacDonald, then threw it out because the UFA market is so stupidly chaotic it's not worth the time trying to figure it out before it actually hits.

[radoran]

True. Faulk has more potential than MacDonald at this stage. MacDonald has also produced at a lower but pretty comparable clip (0.30 vs 0.36 ppg) over a longer stretch in the NHL. You also have to factor in that Faulk was an RFA, which usually deflates a player's value, as opposed to MacDonald being a UFA, which inflates it. However, I wasn't meaning to imply that Faulk's deal was what MacDonald should or would get - only that it was the start of seeing how the defense market will shake out.

 

Funny thing is this morning I started a thread with just this title where I started breaking down the stats of ten players including Faulk and comparing their contracts and production to MacDonald, then threw it out because the UFA market is so stupidly chaotic it's not worth the time trying to figure it out before it actually hits.

 

I see MacDonald as more of a Nick Grossmann with some offensive touch and a better puck handler. I'd slot him a little higher than Grossmann's $3.5M and probably pay a bit of a premium to get him to stay here ($4.25-$4.5M).

 

I concur it would be best to avoid the UFA market if at all possible.

[murraycraven]

I'd be shocked if he got over $5M. Of course, I've been shocked before.

 

I think 5M is what you are going to have to pay for him.   I really dont see him signing for less thatn 4.8M when you look at some of the other contracts in his range...

[radoran]

I think 5M is what you are going to have to pay for him.   I really dont see him signing for less thatn 4.8M when you look at some of the other contracts in his range...

 

I am looking at other contracts in his range. Can you show me any six year players with two 25-point seasons that are getting a 10x raise and/or making $5M?

 

Vanflyer put the capgeek range page up on the Schenn signing thread. Look at, say, a Jack Johnson (also 27) - more points, more hits, 115 blocks, still "upside" - $4.3M for the next four years.

 

Again, happy to see where a second-pairing defenseman who has never hit 30 points is "worth" $5M.

 

He should get more than Grossmann, definitely. Which I think puts him squarely in the $4.5M range. Over $5M? I walk.

 

Homer's mileage may vary.

[murraycraven]

I am looking at other contracts in his range. Can you show me any six year players with two 25-point seasons that are getting a 10x raise and/or making $5M?

 

Vanflyer put the capgeek range page up on the Schenn signing thread. Look at, say, a Jack Johnson (also 27) - more points, more hits, 115 blocks, still "upside" - $4.3M for the next four years.

 

Again, happy to see where a second-pairing defenseman who has never hit 30 points is "worth" $5M.

 

He should get more than Grossmann, definitely. Which I think puts him squarely in the $4.5M range. Over $5M? I walk.

 

Homer's mileage may vary.

 

 

Rad... I used comparable wrong and really did not look at other deals honestly  . 

 

I agree w/ everything you say but I do not get the Grossman and MacDonald comparisons at all.  Once player can play good defense, skate well, good first pass, plays big minutes, plays the PP and has a decent shot and good skater.  Grossman has the worst shot in hockey above Midget Midget level hockey on the planet, medicore skater and a decent defender.

 

Personally, I think MacDonald brings waaaaaaay more than Grossman does and he will get paid more than Grossman as you noted.   Taking into account that he turned away the 16M over 4 years w/ the Isles I am not sure you can get him for anyting less than that.  Yes, he may have wanted out of the Isles but no one really knows the situation.   I am hoping Homer does not overpay and if it is >5M I would let him walk too....  If you let him walk Homie better have a Plan B for defense and we have all seen how that has worked out in the past.  (Insert Suter and Weber jokes here)

Edited March 25, 2014 by murraycraven

[radoran]

Taking into account that he turned away the 16M over 4 years w/ the Isles I am not sure you can get him for anyting less than that. Yes, he may have wanted out of the Isles but no one really knows the situation. I am hoping Homer does not overpay and if it is >5M I would let him walk too....

I don't expect him to get less than that - I expect him to get significantly more, $750K-$1M a year more.

I compare him to Grossmann in that he is defensively responsible and blocks shots (MacDonald is #1 overall, Grossmann comes in at #8) - but I also note that he can handle the puck and has a more rounded offensive game. Also in that he's basically a second-pairing guy.

I just have to believe that if he signs for, say, 5Y/$25M, that the bloom will be off that rose before the end of next season. Coburn at $4.5M was seen as a "good deal" initially, and there are already grumbles that he is overpaid.

MacDonald at $5M (not to mention more) is the next whipping boy - a poor man's Matt Carle ($5.5M, #16 overall shot blocker, two-time 40 point player about to hit his fifth 30+ point season (not even "projecting" his 22 in 48 last season (37.5)). Oh, and Carle is a career +70 who had his last "minus" season in 07-08.

[The Quigster]

The Flyer's defensive crew are a blue collar group at best,since Pronger left nobody here took the lead and nothing has changed. Mc Donald is just one more mediocre NHLer' not a star or even close. The Flyers have three young guys coming soon,time to be patient. Chief has got these guys playing about as good as the talent available,it's just not enough. Great effort,but no cigar!

[flyercanuck]

@radoran

 

 I think people get so used to some of Holmgrens idiotic contracts (and in fairness he does sign some very good ones) that they think MacDonald will likely get that. I don't want him for $5 million, that's for sure. Closer to 4 and I'm in.