Where do we go from here? Your predictions.

[flyercanuck]

@Podein25

 

I think Coburn is a steal for a 2nd rounder...especially for a good team going deep. I'd want a 1st from a top team or 2-2nds. Otherwise I'd just keep him. He's still in his 20s..the odds of replacing him with a 2nd are pretty slim.

[Podein25]

@flyercanuck

 

I think a 2nd and a 4th or 5th are the most you could get for him right now, but you may be right. I'm likely undervaluing him due to poor recent play. Most GMs would overlook that and focus on his body of work, skills and age.

[JackStraw]

So you might end up with something like
 
Streit/Coburn
MDZ/Schultz
Colaiacovo/Ghost
 
That looks a lot more mobile than what we have now.

 

It looks a lot softer too. Cola/Ghost would be an open invitation to opposing forwards to set up shop in front of Mason. The other two pairs wouldn't be much better.  Schenn, Grossman, and MacDonald are also the three best shot blockers. Everybody is getting so obsessed with mobile d-man that they're forgetting there some other things that matter. I don't think you can get rid of both Schenn and Grossman until Morin (at least) is ready.

[brelic]

It looks a lot softer too. Cola/Ghost would be an open invitation to opposing forwards to set up shop in front of Mason. The other two pairs wouldn't be much better.  Schenn, Grossman, and MacDonald are also the three best shot blockers. Everybody is getting so obsessed with mobile d-man that they're forgetting there some other things that matter. I don't think you can get rid of both Schenn and Grossman until Morin (at least) is ready.

 

Yeah good point. Deinitely softer. If you can resign Schenn for around $4M for 4 years or something, that makes it interesting. But more than that (which I'm sure he'll be asking), and I'm not sure he provides good value for that money. Schenn is entering that make-or-break part of his development, plus he's got his brother here, so he might be willing to take a bit less to stick around. 

[JackStraw]

Yeah good point. Deinitely softer. If you can resign Schenn for around $4M for 4 years or something, that makes it interesting. But more than that (which I'm sure he'll be asking), and I'm not sure he provides good value for that money. Schenn is entering that make-or-break part of his development, plus he's got his brother here, so he might be willing to take a bit less to stick around. 

 

Given the choice between the two I'd prefer keeping Schenn over Grossman. Out of the D prospects I'm guessing the two with the best chance to make the Flyers out of TC next year would be Alt and Hagg. They're both big and solid, if unspectacular, two way players. Both are more mobile than Schenn and Grossman. Personally I would try to re-sign MDZ (shouldn't be too hard since he's a RFA), let Schultz and Cola walk, and hope Alt and Hagg can cut it in the NHL. With Ghost hopefully coming up during the season. Start Morin in the AHL and maybe he gets called up near the end of the year.

[radoran]

It looks a lot softer too.

 

True that! There's practically no grit at all in that six.

 

Schenn, Grossman, and MacDonald are also the three best shot blockers.

 

Also related to the fact that they give up a lot of shots. Shot blocking is a double-edged sword. Yes, it can be a Good Thing to stop shots from getting on net, but if you're 30, 40 or 60 ahead of other guys, that (to me) is an indication that there are other factors at play.

 

That said, MacDonald has all of 24 blocks this season (1.33 per game). Schultz leads the team with 56 (2 per game), Grossmann 44 (1.5), Del Zotto at 41 (1.5), Streit at 35 (1.2), Schenn at 34 (1.5) and Coburn with 25 (1.47) all have more and four of the five have better averages per game.

 

Granted, MacDonald hasn't played as much, but even then he projects to just 109 over a full 82-game season - less than half of what he had last year. Essentially, he's not even doing that well...

 

FWIW, Kris Russell (0g, 13a, +1, 2Y/$2.6M per) leads the league with 93 blocks (3 per game - he was #3 last year with 201).

 

I don't think you can get rid of both Schenn and Grossman until Morin (at least) is ready.

Given the choice between the two I'd prefer keeping Schenn over Grossman.

 

Agreed they can't get rid of both rightnow. But, they also, as you noted, need someone to clear the porch. I'd go with the experience of Grossmann over Schenn. But it's not that much of a preference.

 

let Schultz and Cola walk, and hope Alt and Hagg can cut it in the NHL.

 

I wouldn't mind keeping Schultz as a 7. He's proven he's serviceable in that role. I have no faith in Alt (neither, it seems, do the Flyers) and Hagg has reportedly worked his way into the doghouse in Allentown. The $$$/cap difference isn't all that great.

 

If they can get something for Coliacovo at the deadline - bonus!

[mojo1917]

I have no faith in Alt (neither, it seems, do the Flyers) and Hagg has reportedly worked his way into the doghouse in Allentown.

 

really ?

Alt was injured for a couple of 4 weeks so I don't know where he is with his recovery.  Is he playing again ? he was a top pairing player there...  and all i've heard about Hagg is a question of having a consistent compete level...which i admit doesn't seem to bode well  but  doesn't translate to me as" played his way into the doghouse" either.

[JackStraw]

I have no faith in Alt (neither, it seems, do the Flyers) and Hagg has reportedly worked his way into the doghouse in Allentown.

 

Not sure what makes you think that. Alt was injured for much of this year. Hagg was the recipient of some constructive criticism from his coach, but he still gets tons of ice time in all situations. He and Alt are the Phantoms top pair.

 

Regarding the shot blocking, this season to date is a pretty small sample size. Grossman, Schenn and MacDonald all have a track record of blocking tons of shots. As for the "he only blocks a l of shots because he allows so many shot attempts, I think that's one of the biggest pieces of BS I've ever heard. Preventing shot attempts is a team effort. Blocking shots is an individual effort. It seems to have become a popular way to criticize players that people want to criticize. If you're a defenseman and a shot comes your way, you try to block it. Personally I'm not crazy about guys blocking shots because of the injury risk, but the coaches (and goalies) want them to do.

[JackStraw]

Alt was injured for a couple of 4 weeks so I don't know where he is with his recovery.  Is he playing again ?

 

Yeah, he's been back for a week or so now.

[brelic]

Hagg has reportedly worked his way into the doghouse in Allentown.

 

What's the story?

[brelic]

Regarding the shot blocking, this season to date is a pretty small sample size. Grossman, Schenn and MacDonald all have a track record of blocking tons of shots. As for the "he only blocks a l of shots because he allows so many shot attempts, I think that's one of the biggest pieces of BS I've ever heard. Preventing shot attempts is a team effort. Blocking shots is an individual effort. It seems to have become a popular way to criticize players that people want to criticize. If you're a defenseman and a shot comes your way, you try to block it. Personally I'm not crazy about guys blocking shots because of the injury risk, but the coaches (and goalies) want them to do.

 

Taken in isolation, I agree. But couple that with the fact that MacDonald apparently gives up the blue line with much more frequency than other defensemen, and then that adds another layer to the situation - if he's giving up the blue line so regularly, it puts him in a bad spot more often.

[JackStraw]

Taken in isolation, I agree. But couple that with the fact that MacDonald apparently gives up the blue line with much more frequency than other defensemen, and then that adds another layer to the situation - if he's giving up the blue line so regularly, it puts him in a bad spot more often.

 

I'm really focusing more on Schenn and Grossman here, since they're the crease-clearers.

[radoran]

Not sure what makes you think that. Alt was injured for much of this year. Hagg was the recipient of some constructive criticism from his coach, but he still gets tons of ice time in all situations. He and Alt are the Phantoms top pair.

 

I just see Alt as an AHL-caliber defenseman. Maybe a 5/6 in the NHL. Maybe. As always, happy to be wrong

 

Hagg did get some constructive criticism (which is what I was referring to) and I hope he learns from it. Of the two, I see Hagg with the higher ceiling (still likely 3/4 in the NHL).

 

As for the "he only blocks a l of shots because he allows so many shot attempts, I think that's one of the biggest pieces of BS I've ever heard. Preventing shot attempts is a team effort. Blocking shots is an individual effort.

 

See, I disagree. When I see a guy who gives up the blue line on a regular basis and has trouble clearing the zone - but has a high number of shot blocks - I think that there is likely a correlation there (as @brelic said). And that is, in fact, what I've seen.

 

That's also what I mean by "other factors at play" - especially for a guy who is dozens of block ahead of other guys over the course of a season.

 

YMMV of course, but I think it is far from BS.

 

I'm really focusing more on Schenn and Grossman here, since they're the crease-clearers.

 

 I don't see either of them far and away leading the league in blocks. And I don't see where clearing the crease is directly related to blocking shots. They seem to me to be separate, if perhaps complimentary, defensive attributes.

[radoran]

What's the story?

 

http://www.letsgoflyers.net/2014/12/04/terry-murray-publicly-calls-out-robert-hagg/

[JackStraw]

I don't see either of them far and away leading the league in blocks. And I don't see where clearing the crease is directly related to blocking shots. They seem to me to be separate, if perhaps complimentary, defensive attributes.

 

I don't think I claimed any of that. All I said was that I would be hesitant to get rid both Grossman and Schenn at this point because they are really the only two physical ("crease clearing type") defensemen on the team, and that also, they have been (over their Flyers careers) two of the better shot blockers on the team.

[radoran]

I don't think I claimed any of that.

 

No, but you were responding to me in a context where I was talking about a player who was far and away leading the league in blocks (last year) and noting that guys who block a lot of shots have a tendency to... give up a lot of shots.

 

I believe the term you used was "one of the biggest pieces of BS (you)'ve ever heard"

 

I outright agreed with you about not being able to drop Schenn and Grossmann both and said both of them were doing better in the shot blocking department this season.

[JackStraw]

I believe the term you used was "one of the biggest pieces of BS (you)'ve ever heard"

 

Yes, that's what I think. Not going to argue the point though, because "advanced stats" seems to have become like a religion to many people and I'm not a religious guy. Perfectly willing to tolerate the religious beliefs of others though.

[radoran]

Yes, that's what I think. Not going to argue the point though, because "advanced stats" seems to have become like a religion to many people and I'm not a religious guy. Perfectly willing to tolerate the religious beliefs of others though.

 

Not sure what "shot blocks" have to do with "advanced stats" or why you wouldn't be interested in a stat upon which you've built at least part of your argument ("the three best shot blockers. Everybody is getting so obsessed with mobile d-man that they're forgetting there some other things that matter"), but to each their own.

 

Guy leads the league in shot blocks, but is -22 and that has nothing to do with the amount of shots he allows?

 

Okeley dokeley.

 

Maybe some day I'll Google to find out where to find these "advanced stats" that people are so worked up about.

 

But as it stands I don't need "advanced stats" to tell me the "eye test" is working in this case.

 

'cause I ain't a religious guy, neither.

[JackStraw]

Not sure what "shot blocks" have to do with "advanced stats" or why you wouldn't be interested in a stat upon which you've built at least part of your argument ("the three best shot blockers. Everybody is getting so obsessed with mobile d-man that they're forgetting there some other things that matter"), but to each their own.

 

I was referring to zone entries with regard to advanced stats, not shot blocking.

 

Guy leads the league in shot blocks, but is -22 and that has nothing to do with the amount of shots he allows?

 

Who are we talking about here? I don't know who led the league in blocked shots. All I said was that Grossman and Schenn (along with MacDonald) have been the best shot blockers on the Flyers defense.

 

To be more specific, I simply disagree with the claim (made by many) that a high number of blocked shots is bad because it means the guy is responsible for allowing a lot of shot attempts in the first place. I just consider shot attempts to be far more a result of team play than individual play.

[King Knut]

No player on this team except for Giroux will earn you a first round pick from a bottom feeding team this or any other year.

 

maybe hexy will have the guts to wheel and deal for one, we shouldnt have to tank for one, if they are players on this team that's worth giving up accept for giroux, jake and laughton for one, i'll do it.

[brelic]

I was referring to zone entries with regard to advanced stats, not shot blocking.

Who are we talking about here? I don't know who led the league in blocked shots. All I said was that Grossman and Schenn (along with MacDonald) have been the best shot blockers on the Flyers defense.

To be more specific, I simply disagree with the claim (made by many) that a high number of blocked shots is bad because it means the guy is responsible for allowing a lot of shot attempts in the first place. I just consider shot attempts to be far more a result of team play than individual play.

I ain't a religious guy either, stats or otherwise. I agree that shot blocks by themselves don't tell the story. That's why I brought up zone entries.

Advanced stats is just a fancy way of describing the things we see in a game but tracked over time.

[JackStraw]

I ain't a religious guy either, stats or otherwise. I agree that shot blocks by themselves don't tell the story. That's why I brought up zone entries.

Advanced stats is just a fancy way of describing the things we see in a game but tracked over time.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the NHL doesn't track zone entries do they? It's just fans or maybe media people who are doing that isn't it? If so then I doubt you're getting a really accurate statistical sampling.

[brelic]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the NHL doesn't track zone entries do they? It's just fans or maybe media people who are doing that isn't it? If so then I doubt you're getting a really accurate statistical sampling.

 

I'm not sure exactly who tracks it. 

 

But I would also question the NHL tracking of hits, shot blocks, and even the way they hand out (phantom) points.

[JackStraw]

I'm not sure exactly who tracks it. 

 

But I would also question the NHL tracking of hits, shot blocks, and even the way they hand out (phantom) points.

 

Personally I would trust the league more than some guy sitting on his couch with a bowl of nachos...

[brelic]

Personally I would trust the league more than some guy sitting on his couch with a bowl of nachos...

 

The point I was trying to make is that there are also "official" NHL stats that have a high amount of subjectivity in them and are not 100% accurate. There is human interpretation in it.

 

Your description of some guy sitting on his couch with a bowl of nachos sounds more like a regular fan than a person dedicated enough to the game of hockey and the importance of statistics to actually track them for all teams.