COMBINED: "Whither or Not Vinny"

[radoran]

what principles?  thou shall not send offersheets to highly prized but underbid RFAs?  35 offersheets sent over 28 years of the concept, it isn't the rarest of all birds.  

 

I am all in favor of the offer sheet concept, but if we assume, for example, that every team has, say, three RFAs a season, that's 90 a year for just the existing franchises for the past 14 years.

 

That's 1260 RFAs.

 

If all 35 offer sheets were done in the past 14 years (they weren't) then that's 2.7% of RFAs getting offer sheeted.

 

Not the rarest of all birds, and certainly not a dodo, but it ain't exactly your run of the mill sea gull or pigeon either.

 

There is obviously a bias among GMs against offer sheets. Again, I think it's ridiculous. But it is there.

 

That's not going to stop Polie from making a deal, but it may mean a $500K per year difference in what he'd want the Flyers to retain in salary or a round on the draft pick he'd want with it.

 

And whether or not the changing of the guard means anything to him - or whether he still looks at the Flyers as the "deep pockets" franchises he referenced.

[OccamsRazor]

There is obviously a bias among GMs against offer sheets. Again, I think it's ridiculous. But it is there

 

Yes and i think the most recent one was Calgary offer sheeting Ryan O'reilly which the Avs matched and they were doing the same thing the Preds were doing IIRC and then their boy got offersheeted....it's what can happen if you so chose to make your play available to be.

 

Sometimes you play with fire you get burnt.

[Polaris922]

@radoran

Thank you. I feel like every person that jumps into the conversation means we have to start all over. Lol.

[radoran]

@radoran

Thank you. I feel like every person that jumps into the conversation means we have to start all over. Lol.

 

It could also be that Polie isn't interested in replacing his temporary injury problem with a four year commitment to a 34-year-old declining center with a history of injury problems.

 

But I risk repeating myself

[Polaris922]

It could also be that Polie isn't interested in replacing his temporary injury problem with a four year commitment to a 34-year-old declining center with a history of injury problems.

But I risk repeating myself

You forgot the outrageous cap hit part

[radoran]

You forgot the outrageous cap hit part

 

Well, to be fair, $4.5M is what a 20/50 forward is getting in today's market (this, of course, means Homer took a guy who took home $4.7M to not play for Tampa last year and will make at least $1.7M for the next 14 years not to play for Tampa and paid him top dollar and max length). Yes, VLC took home over nine million dollars from hockey clubs last year.*

 

And will get over another $9M this year.

 

The question remains if VLC can hit that point (20/37 last year with 50+% of goals in man advantage situations) or be the 25/60 point 2nd line center that can create 5-on-5 teams would want him to be.

 

I do think he can still be an effective player. There is simply no obvious Top Six role for him on the Flyers that will get him the value for production.

 

 

 

* remember there is a financial crisis in the sport that has caused us to miss a season and a half of hockey this century...

[canoli]

There is simply no obvious Top Six role for him on the Flyers that will get him the value for production.

 

Sure there is - 2nd line center. If he's healthy why wouldn't he center the 2nd line?

 

Last season's demotion to the 4th line was the result of a combination of things (injuries, changing linemates every other game practically, VLC adjusting to a new team, new city) that, if the Flyers choose, won't be part of the picture again this year. The Flyers coaches can control where he skates and who he skates with. Vinny won't have the "I'm adjusting" excuse. That leaves the random injury bug. But VLC can control that to a certain degree by being in great shape, which will help prevent the types of injuries he usually gets.

 

Berube has to play him at center if he wants anything out of the guy and the only spot is the 2nd line.

[radoran]

Sure there is - 2nd line center. If he's healthy why wouldn't he center the 2nd line?

 

Well, we can go with the 34-year-old declining center who had 20/37 (50% in man advantage - including two 6-on-5) or the 23-year-old rising center who had 20/41 four on the power play.

 

VLC was 44% on the dot, BSchenn 43%

 

Neither has seemed particularly effective on the wing.

 

Hasn't one of the Flyers' consistent weaknesses over the Holmgren/Clarke era being their reliance upon declining big names over developing their own young talent?

 

As has been discussed over and over on thread after thread (combined) that's the contract forcing the lineup, as you yourself go on to say:

 

Berube has to play him at center if he wants anything out of the guy and the only spot is the 2nd line.

 

I completely agree with this. And I just don't think it's the best thing for the team. The two thoughts are not incompatible at all

 

Could be that Hextall arranges a trade of a BSchenn for a young LW with potential. That's another line of thinking. 

 

It's still, in the end, VLC's contract being the driving issue for the Flyers.

 

As we all know, it fixed a problem that didn't exist and filled a role that was already occupied.

[aziz]

if we assume, for example, that every team has, say, three RFAs a season, that's 90 a year for just the existing franchises for the past 14 years.
 
That's 1260 RFAs.
 
If all 35 offer sheets were done in the past 14 years (they weren't) then that's 2.7% of RFAs getting offer sheeted.

 

90 per season, with, what, 85 of those being tweeners on two way contracts that no one cares about?

 

eliminate the guys not worth the draft pick compensation, then eliminate the guys for whom arbitration is chosen, and you are left with a small handful of quality players who are qualified but unsigned after july 1 every year.  not 3 from every team, but maybe 5 from the entire league.  and every couple of years one of them (or more) gets an offersheet.  35 since 1986.  1.25 offersheets per year.  as you say, not a dodo.  not a pigeon, either, but...let's go with a heron.  worth noticing when you see one, but everyone has, at one point or another.  a sighting makes for an interesting but not shocking story over the dinner table.

 

and again, if a general manager out there let his borderline generational talent get past july 1 without a contract, then that player receives an offersheet, and then that GM allows his ruffled feathers (to continue the analogy) influence negotiations...it's his own best deal he is tanking.  i don't think "favors" exist between NHL general managers; the amount of money and reputation at stake precludes doing anything other than what is best for your team at any given point.  i don't think any of the deals that happened between philly and nashville came from someone being a really nice guy and cutting anyone a break.  the idea that no more favors will be coming is thus ridiculous.  if nashville refuses to deal with philly because of what a former GM did, then that is poile deciding to let his lack of professionalism artificially close doors, and that's on him.  

[Polaris922]

and again, if a general manager out there let his borderline generational talent get past july 1 without a contract, then that player receives an offersheet, and then that GM allows his ruffled feathers (to continue the analogy) influence negotiations...it's his own best deal he is tanking.

Gotta disagree about the rarity and impact of offer sheets... But this line absolutely blew me away. I honestly never thought I'd see a Flyers fan use the word "tanking" outside of a discussion about the Penguins... :ph43r:

[aziz]

Gotta disagree about the rarity and impact of offer sheets...

 

can you expand on this?  the numbers say there are more than one every summer.  given that the only likely targets are outstanding talents who are not yet arbitration eligible and are not under contract by the end of june...how often does that happen?  a couple every summer?  and on average one of those gets an offersheet....  so...what, 20%?

 

most GM's get their cornerstone prospects signed before free agency.  of those few that don't, a noticeable percentage see a sheet.  vanek, penner, backes, bernier, hjalmarsson, o'reilly, weber.  that's 7 over the last 7 years.

[Polaris922]

can you expand on this? the numbers say there are more than one every summer. given that the only likely targets are outstanding talents who are not yet arbitration eligible and are not under contract by the end of june...how often does that happen? a couple every summer? and on average one of those gets an offersheet.... so...what, 20%?

most GM's get their cornerstone prospects signed before free agency. of those few that don't, a noticeable percentage see a sheet. vanek, penner, backes, bernier, hjalmarsson, o'reilly, weber. that's 7 over the last 7 years.

Well... Numbers wise... There are STILL 61 RFA's right now. How many before the signing frenzy? Double that? But let's stay conservative with @radoran 's earlier figure of 90 by the time you can throw offers. The argument that only a couple are worth pursuing is invalid. A lot of these guys are top six or good checking line scoring forwards, or promising defensemen.

Why hasn't anyone offer sheeted Subban? Kruger? Johanssen? Sutter? Niederreiter? Frolik? Schultz? Sobotka? Schwartz? Silfverberg? Smith? Smith-Pelly?

There are plenty if teams who would love those guys in one role or another. But let's stick with math instead of subjective evaluation. 28 years... 90 per year... 2520 opportunities for offer sheets. There have been 35. That's 14%. That's a pretty rare bird.

Now the idea that some are worth it some are not only holds so much water. If there is truly no backlash for throwing offer sheets, why haven't there been any thrown at Torey Krug? Or Subban? Ryan Johansen??! I'd love to have that guy and who cares if the Blue Jackets are mad right?

I just see too many RFA's out there every year worth going after, that would command mediocre draft picks, and yet nobody goes after them.

That tells me there's a lot more stigma on offer sheets than just "oh but it's allowed".

[flyercanuck]

@Polaris922

 

 Well half the league has the "stigma" then. And teams still appear to be dealing with them.

 

 The Flames were the last team to sign a player to an offersheet. Colorado made one trade with them months later, and another since. That's a heck of a grudge.

[Polaris922]

@Polaris922

 

 Well half the league has the "stigma" then. And teams still appear to be dealing with them.

 

 The Flames were the last team to sign a player to an offersheet. Colorado made one trade with them months later, and another since. That's a heck of a grudge.

 

 

Please show me where I said teams wouldn't deal with anybody that did it to them.  I seriously think half the posters in this thread are only reading the words they choose to read.  It's always easy to win a debate when you create both sides of it.  

[flyercanuck]

@Polaris922

 

 I'm not trying to win anything. I think a lot of people believe offersheets are some evil black magic voodoo that only the lowest of the low would even consider using...when in fact HALF the teams in the league have gone that route. 

 

 And teams that have been offersheeted have also continued to deal with the offersheetees. Or offersheeters. Oh shite!

[Polaris922]

@Polaris922

I'm not trying to win anything. I think a lot of people believe offersheets are some evil black magic voodoo that only the lowest of the low would even consider using...when in fact HALF the teams in the league have gone that route.

And teams that have been offersheeted have also continued to deal with the offersheetees. Or offersheeters. Oh shite!

The fact remains that offer sheets taint relationships between teams. General managers say it. Journalists say it. It's no great surprise. Does it mean they won't deal with one another? No. Does it mean you might have to sweeten it a little to get it done? Yes.

[pilldoc]

The fact remains that offer sheets taint relationships between teams. General managers say it. Journalists say it. It's no great surprise. Does it mean they won't deal with one another? No. Does it mean you might have to sweeten it a little to get it done? Yes.

 

Just curious...and I might have missed it, but can you give an example where a GM came out and flat out said offer sheets taint relationships with teams.  I don't believe what journalists say anyway.  They are just trying to make a living. 

 

I know that there is a lot of assumptions and speculations that offer sheets taint team relationships (isn't this what the latter half of this thread is about).  However, I have never seen a GM of team Y come out and flat out say I won't deal with team X because the gave an offer sheet to one of my top players. 

 

Again, I don't keep up with every news conference or quote that any GM across the NHL says.  I see the term "fact" and I am going to want hard proof documentation. 

 

Anything else is pure conjecture.

[flyercanuck]

The fact remains that offer sheets taint relationships between teams. General managers say it. Journalists say it. It's no great surprise. Does it mean they won't deal with one another? No. Does it mean you might have to sweeten it a little to get it done? Yes.

 

 So for example, when Calgary offersheets O'Reilly, then makes a deal with Colorado that sends two OLDER players who produce one point difference and have basically the same caphit, for two younger players, what's the deal sweetener?

[aziz]

That tells me there's a lot more stigma on offer sheets than just "oh but it's allowed".

 

i never said there was no "stigma" to it.  yes, the GM whose kid was offersheeted gets all frowny faced when it happens, some may even say something to the press about other GMs undercutting their well considered cap strategy.  the question is whether there is actual in-negotiations impact, where the GM who was on the short end of an offersheet says, "well, this a really pretty good deal for my team, but it is that guy offering it, and i'm mad at him, so I'm going to demand he give me more or i give him less --and risk the whole deal falling apart-- because he's a jerkface."  just don't think it happens.  similarly, GMs don't say, "hey, i really like that other GM, i'm going to give him more than I need to, or ask for less, because he's a super great guy.  it might not be the best thing for my roster, but he's just so darn nice."

 

GMs go looking for the best deal for their team.  they don't accept a less-than-best deal because they have a soft spot for some particular trade partner, and they don't demand more than the negotiations can carry because they hold a grudge from years ago.  

 

especially when the actual guy who sent the offersheet isn't even in the GM's chair anymore.

 

i'm looking at the list of offersheets accepted over the last 8 years (there have been 8 of them)...and i am unaware of any ongoing complications in the teams' relationships.  philly-vancouver, edmonton-buffalo, edmonton-anaheim, st louis-vancouver, san jose-chicago, calgary-colorado.  which ones refuse to deal with each other because of stubbed toes from years ago?

 

the one exception to everything i'm saying is any team run by brian burke, because i totally believe that he would hold a grudge and it would be a whole thing.  along with talking about taking opposing GMs behind the barn and punching them in the face.

[aziz]

 So for example, when Calgary offersheets O'Reilly, then makes a deal with Colorado that sends two OLDER players who produce one point difference and have basically the same caphit, for two younger players, what's the deal sweetener?

 

 

there is no sweetener.  this entire concept is insane.  GMs value players, their own and others', as having worth in a given range.  they are willing to pay X for that player, or demand Y in return for that player, regardless of who they are dealing with.  all with an eye to getting the best deal they possibly can for their team.  the idea that the best deal for their team takes a backseat to their personal feelings about a particular trade partner is crazy.  tons of support in urban myth, but no basis that i can see in the reality of the situations that have occurred over the years.

[radoran]

 if nashville refuses to deal with philly because of what a former GM did, then that is poile deciding to let his lack of professionalism artificially close doors, and that's on him.  

 

Your point is well taken in the context of the thread, but in the context of what it is I've been saying about that possibility and the player in general, really has little bearing on the situation.

 

Because I have agreed and do agree with it - but I've never said Polie "wouldn't deal" with Philly - just that he's not likely to give the Flyers an "easy time of it."

 

In the context of "why won't Nashville take VLC" (the original thread before the merger) - I've also been very specific that if Polie wanted to replace a temporary injury problem with a four year, 34-year-old, declining "solution", they certainly could but it would likely cost more for the Flyers (extra retained salary, slightly higher draft pick sweetener, etc.) than it might from another organization.

 

As it is, I'm not surprised at all that VLC hasn't been dealt to Nashville, as the Flyers seem reluctant to retain much salary at all (according to reports).

 

Really has absolutely nothing to do with Nashville.

 

As for RFAs, an interesting side note on offer sheets is the number of franchises that have issued them (11*) and the ones that have issued the most:

 

St. Louis - 8

Rangers - 4

San Jose/Bruins/Flyers - 3

 

Barely 1/3 of the league has ever issued an offer sheet and almost 2/3 come from five franchises.

 

And then the timeline: ZERO offer sheets were issued between 1998 and 2006. Sixteen between 1991-1994. That's the stretch surrounding the strike and first lockout where you had big money clubs "bullying" the smaller markets.

 

Just eight in the 21st Century. So - first 14 years? 27 offer sheets. Since then? Eight.

 

Are they hunting herons into extinction?

 

 

 

* counting Carolina and Hartford as the same "franchise"

[radoran]

but can you give an example where a GM came out and flat out said offer sheets taint relationships with teams.

 

Brian Burke, Anaheim, 2007

Darcy Regier, Buffalo, 2007

 

in re: Kevin Lowe offer sheets to Dustin Penner and Thomas Vanek

 

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/angry-burke-blasts-fellow-gm-lowe-1.634868

 

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2011/12/02/brian-burke-plotted-to-fight-kevin-lowe-in-a-barn-but-bettman-put-an-end-to-it/

 

The Score’s Sophia Jurksztowicz talked to Leafs hockey boss Brian Burke about the feud that erupted between him and Oilers hockey boss Kevin Lowe, after Lowe signed Burke’s free agent, Dustin Penner, to an offer sheet.

In the interview, Burke describes how the death of his 21-year-old son Brendan in a car crash in February, 2010 helped convince him that he was going too far in the feud, though NHL commissioner Gary Bettman also helped calm things down at one key point.

Here is the full interview.

Burke told The Score that Brendan overheard him ripping Lowe in a phonecall, referring to Lowe as a “no good bastard.”

Afterward, Brendan told his father, “Dad, how can you carry a grudge like that.”

“It’s easy I’m Irish. We can carry (one) for centuries,” Burke replied.

“Well, I don’t approve of that. You guys used to be friends and I think you should mend the fence.”

Burke then told Brendan he should mind his own business.

At one point, Burke’s wife also overheard Burke on the phone, this time talking to Glen Sather of the Rangers, where Burke asked Sather to act as an intermediary to set up a fist fight between him and Lowe.

[aziz]

In the context of "why won't Nashville take VLC" (the original thread before the merger) - I've also been very specific that if Polie wanted to replace a temporary injury problem with a four year, 34-year-old, declining "solution", they certainly could but it would likely cost more for the Flyers (extra retained salary, slightly higher draft pick sweetener, etc.) than it might from another organization.

 

to me, they just aren't interested in VLC.  if poile doesn't think he'd help their roster, any amount of salary retained by philly won't change that.  if poile thinks VLC would help his roster, then he'd be try to get the best deal he possibly could, including retained salary.  the best deal possible is the same best deal possible regardless of who he is negotiating with.  if he thinks he can get 50% retained, then he is going to try to get 50% retained.  again, were there never a weber offersheet, poile still wouldn't sit there going, "i can probably get 50% retained, but i like the flyers' brass, so i'll only push for 25%."  nor, "25% retained works well for my cap situation, but i hate philly so i'll insist on 50%, even if it ruins a deal that i see as good for my club."

 

imo, the current situation is all about VLC not being attractive to other teams, and philly not wanting to hold onto much salary.  i don't think there is anything deeper to it.

 

And then the timeline: ZERO offer sheets were issued between 1998 and 2006. Sixteen between 1991-1994. That's the stretch surrounding the strike and first lockout where you had big money clubs "bullying" the smaller markets.

 

Just eight in the 21st Century. So - first 14 years? 27 offer sheets. Since then? Eight.

 

right, and those 8 all came after the second to most recent lockout (amazing we can tell time by lockout number, huh?).  we're running at one per year for the better part of a decade now.  they were bordering on common, then disappeared entirely, and now are back as a normal if infrequent part of the RFA scene.  the herons are fine, they're just shy.

[pilldoc]

Brian Burke, Anaheim, 2007

Darcy Regier, Buffalo, 2007

 

in re: Kevin Lowe offer sheets to Dustin Penner and Thomas Vanek

 

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/angry-burke-blasts-fellow-gm-lowe-1.634868

 

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2011/12/02/brian-burke-plotted-to-fight-kevin-lowe-in-a-barn-but-bettman-put-an-end-to-it/

 

thanks @radoran ... again I was just curious.  So that is 2 teams out of 30.  I just don't think we can make that as a generalization across the league.

[radoran]

imo, the current situation is all about VLC not being attractive to other teams, and philly not wanting to hold onto much salary.  i don't think there is anything deeper to it.

 

Completely agree.

 

right, and those 8 all came after the second to most recent lockout (amazing we can tell time by lockout number, huh?).  we're running at one per year for the better part of a decade now.  they were bordering on common, then disappeared entirely, and now are back as a normal if infrequent part of the RFA scene.  the herons are fine, they're just shy.

 

Still, only six franchises have issued one over that period with Edmonton and the Flyers having two apiece - Edmonton twice in one year. Only one went through.

 

I hope that we see more of them and have said so on many occasions over the years.

 

I think we're more likely to see them in the mid range in the mold of the Bernier, Kesler, Backes Hjalmarsson than in the block-busting Weber/Vanek types.

 

And, as for "tainting" relationships, the Canucks and Blues had a nice little tit-for-tat situation a week apart in 2008.