Top Free agents in a very weak class

[yave1964]

  The regular season draws to a close in three days, 14 teams are sent packing, I figured why not take a look at some of the upcoming unrestricted free agents. A weak class to be sure, I personally feel that some people will be massively overpaid due to the thin talent out there. A bunch of second and third liners will be getting first line money. Here are, IMHO the best of the players who will be available:

MIKE GREEN Warts and all, still a puck moving d-man with questionable defensive skills. Rumored to be seeking a five year, 35 million dollar deal which Washington elected not to offer. Someone will.

 

MARTIN ST lOUIS  Showing signs of slowing down, the diminutive forward still is one of the leagues most cerebral players.

 

MIKE FISHER The odds are that Mr. Underwood will not leave the Predators, choosing to stay in the town where his wife is a Goddess.

 

ANTTI NIEMI Ran out of San Jose on a rail, will likely enter what I choose to call the Bryzgalov stage of his career where he bounces around for a few years until he gets the hint. Really not a horrible tender.

 

DREW STAFFORD Has had a great run in Winnipeg, doing everything they could have hoped and more. Getting out of Buffalo has revitalized him, the Jets would love to have him back.

 

 Guys, that is about it, really. Lots of Justin Williams, Christian Erhoff, Antoine Vermette types, oodles of those. Chris Stewart, Eric Fehr, Marek Zidlicky and Johnny Oduya types are everywhere in this class.

  I think more trades than ever will occur this offseason because what is available free agent wise is the complimentary players, no real game changers in the bunch.

 That said, this might be the year we finally see collusion come to an end and offer sheets being made to some of the top Restricted free agents who include:

Derek Stepan who would look mighty good in Toronto

Braden Holtby who would look great about anywhere

Gus Nyquist who would look good on the wing of most any club

Alex Galchenyuk a team should back a truck up to his residence and start dropping off the money.

 

Not saying they will, but they should make a serious offer to several of the RFA's and drop this sillly gentleman agreement within the NHL. Not since the Flyers and Weber has an offer been made. With this anemic class of UFA's and the above mentioned restricted players potentially available, why not step up to the plate.

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

True the upcoming FA class isn't rife with 'game changers' and yea, some unworthy players may get more money than they probably should, but at the same time, this could also be a time for teams to look at some of these upcoming players and perhaps walk away with a bargain by taking a chance on a player or two that is now considered a 'project' or looking to rebound from a bad season or two on an otherwise good career...and  have that player on a low end contract, pay off big dividends for the upcoming season.

 

Or just guys who simply could be had for reasonable amounts of money and serve a specific purpose on a team.

 

For example, the Wild have as UFA's (salary info courtesy of nhlnumbers.com):

 

Kyle Brodziak, 30 yo, C (current $2.8M cap hit, $3M salary)

Ryan Carter,  30 yo, F (current $725K, cap and salary)

Keith Ballard, 31 yo, D ( current $1.5M cap, $2M salary)

Nate Prosser, 28 yo, D ( current $700K cap and salary)

 

Assuming Minnesota doesn't re-sign any of them, guys like Kyle Brodziak, despite his overall lack of offense, could be a nice fit at a reasonable rate as a top tier penalty killer and excellent checking 3rd or 4th liner who actually skates BETTER than your typical bottom six center.

 

And another, Ryan Carter, not very expensive at all, to also fit into a bottom six / penalty kill role and do a very good job at that.

 

Over on D, Keith Ballard is coming off a season that was injury plagued and the Wild simply have much depth on defense now that he probably won't be re-signed, and some team could take a flyer on him at a reasonable cost, and have him turn out to be a very good veteran 2nd or 3rd pair D-man for their team if his health holds up.

Nate Prosser? Low cost, decent physical defenseman who also could find himself on the outside due to the Wild's defensive depth.

 

 

Overall, I agree the upcoming FA class is tepid at best, but I think the smart GM's will be looking for players like the above examples across the league to add depth/insurance or flat out roll the dice on a low cost contract, but high reward type deal on such players to help fill a need on their team.

 

Obviously, GM's in the market for 'game changers' will, as you suggested, need to go looking the trade route......OR, do away with the old school RFA agreements and start making offer sheets to some of the more desireable RFA's out there.

[WordsOfWisdom]

  The regular season draws to a close in three days, 14 teams are sent packing, I figured why not take a look at some of the upcoming unrestricted free agents. A weak class to be sure, I personally feel that some people will be massively overpaid due to the thin talent out there. A bunch of second and third liners will be getting first line money. Here are, IMHO the best of the players who will be available:

MIKE GREEN Warts and all, still a puck moving d-man with questionable defensive skills. Rumored to be seeking a five year, 35 million dollar deal which Washington elected not to offer. Someone will.

 

 

He's the kind of player Leafs management wacks off to in their board rooms. Replace Cody Franson with Mike Green? 5-year, 35 mil contract? That's a very Toronto thing to do!  

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Here's a couple more that may be worth a look for teams with specific needs:

 

From the Sens,

 

Andrew Hammond, 26 yo, current $720K salary

Eric Condra, 27 yo, F, current $1.3 M salary, $1.25 cap hit.

 

 

From the Leafs,

 

Eric Brewer, 35 yo , current $3.75M salary.

 

 

And from the Blackhawks,

 

Brad Richards, 34 yo, current $2M salary

Johnny Oduya, 32 yo, current $2.8M salary, $3.3M cap hit

 

Again, assuming the current team doesn't retain, these are all guys who may get a good look by others.

 

In the case of Andew Hammond, it may come down to how he performs in the playoffs.

The Senators DO have Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner signed for three and two more years respectively.

 

So unless Ottawa plans on carrying three goalies, one has to go....and would Anderson and his upcoming $4.2M cap hit be as easy to trade?

Or do the Sens give up on 22 yo Lehner with a low $2.2M cap hit already in favor of The Hamburglar?

 

Some team may reap the benefits of Ottawa's goalie dilemma.

 

Erik Condra?

His production isn't too great, but still can possibly contribute from a bottom six role with the right team. Relatively inexpensive, he most likely will be pushed out of Ottawa's lineup with the emergence of several other players such as Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, and Kyle Turris.

 

Condra, with regular minutes, can be a decent addition to help stabilize a team's 3rd line.

 

The Leafs' Eric Brewer, though getting long in the tooth, on the right team where he gets playing time...even as a bottom pair D-man...can still contribute from a physical standpoint, leadership standpoint (hey, this guy was a former team captain with the Blues and many young Bolts players credit him with helping them along), and the guy can still skate for a 'crusty ol' 35 yo old D-man.

 

As long as Brewer's desire to play is still there AND you don't make him a spare part on your team, his salary demands shouldn't be too high...probably much lower than his current salary is....and a team could benefit from his experience on the blue line and in turn, he could help along some young players on a team's blue line in being overall professionals.

 

On the Hawks, Brad Richards is no longer a top six player, but that doesn't mean he has no hockey left in him.

He no longer carries the ridiculous price tag he did while with the Stars and Rangers and can still be looked upon to contribute from a bottom six role, possibly even still a decent playmaker on a 2nd PP unit and still skates well enough to keep up with most teams' fastest players.

 

Even though he has declined drastically, expecting a 15-20 goal season with perhaps 40-50 pts from a bottom six / part time PP specialist role out of the guy isn't out of the realm of possibility.

 

And finally, Johnny Oduya.

Not the most sound defender, and sometimes will have a brain malfunction where the takes a bad penalty...but still, brings a little bit of everything to the table, and in fact, over the course of the last season or two, has really upped his responsibility in terms of not doing stupid things on the ice.

 

I would imagine he could be had for around $2.5M - $2.75M or so for maybe a two, maybe three year deal tops, and at that price, some team will be very happy to have his jack-of-all-trades-but-master-at-none style on their bottom pair defense.

[yave1964]

@Hockey Junkie

Totally disagree with your assessment of Stafford. Getting away from Buffalo got him interested in Hockey again, the guy plays hard every night, and is not afraid to get the puck out of the corners. Junkie, I know you see him a lot more than I do, but he is a great interview, known as a solid teammate, He has put up great numbers since getting a new lease on life in Winnipeg and looks like he is five years younger.

@TropicalFruitGirl26

"Jack of all trades-master of none."

 

Perfect description of this free agent class. A team with a specific need, such as a third line center, a bottom pair d-man, a depth forward, there are going to be TONS of those guys out there. The problem is someone is going to overpay, ala Mike Komisarek with the Leafs a half a dozen years ago. I think if you need to fill a need and you are a shrewd GM and are willing to hold off you might be able to sign one of these guys for cheap.

 

 Gonna be an interesting offseason.

[Lionel Hutz]

One or both of Ehrhoff/Martin are both probably headed to UFA, Time to see what Shero's hoarding/drafting defense fetish brought us, Dumoulin is out of waiver eligibility, Harrington is close, Derrick Pouliot is a need for the power play, Plus with Letang/Maatta coming back from injuries just don't see space/need to have both at another combined 9 million per year.

[jammer2]

  I'm a pretty big Brodziak fan, someone is gonna get a respectable 3rd line center for decent money.

[J0e Th0rnton]

I love how Cody Franson is making no bones about going for the biggest offer given to him.

 

Ehrhoff dealing with concussion symptoms is bad for his chances. He did not produce as expected on a Pens blueline with Sid and Geno.

 

Martin of course, is old, but still a good player.

 

Mike Green is without a doubt the guy having the best season. He loses offensive time to Carlson and newcomer Niskanen and still put up 10 goals and 45 points. He has been relatively healthy the past 2 seasons, missing only 10-12 games(Some dealing with flu). The man is dynamic offensively and will bolster any PP unit. Moves the puck well too. Questionable defensively, but not so much as a Brent Burns lol.

 

Goalie market is thin. Real thin. Dubnyk is the only guy showing it and he is 95% likely to resign.

 

For those not aware, the cap is not going up this year. it is likely going down $1million to 68 million. That puts a few teams in worst cap hell than they already were. RFA offer sheets baby.

 

Here is Chicago's lineup.

Forward (7) - Sharp , Toews , Kane , Hossa , Shaw , Bickell , Versteeg = 40.375
Defense (4) - Keith , Seabrook , Hjalmarsson , TVR = 16.363M
Goaltending (2) - Crawford + Darling = 6.57M

63.3M in cap hits without TT or any other kids on roster (Outside of TVR) and no Saad extension

If you give Saad 5M your at 68.3M with this roster

Saad-Toews-Hossa
Sharp-?-Kane
Bickell-Shaw-Versteeg
?-?-?
?

Keith-Seabrook
Hjalmarsson-?
?-TVR
?

Crawford
Darling


Saad might get a hefty offer sheet, but Chicago might match up to 5 million. Any more than that and it costs the team a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

 

But they are boned. Toews and Kane have their 2 cups, and now want the payday at the expense of the team.

[ScottM]

I notice no one mentioned Erin Andrews' boyfriend... 

[J0e Th0rnton]

I notice no one mentioned Erin Andrews' boyfriend... 

Well, Stoll has been going steadily downhill and was not a hot commodity anyways.

[ScottM]

Well, Stoll has been going steadily downhill and was not a hot commodity anyways.

I know, but I did ninja the comment. Lol

With the junk he has going on combined with said decline, I wasn't going to pass up the chance to refer to him like that.

[yave1964]

@J0e Th0rnton

 

Saad five million a year, five years, as a Wing fan I am drooling, tho that is an awful lot for a winger. If someone does not offer sheet this boy then collusion needs to be called on the owners.

[J0e Th0rnton]

@J0e Th0rnton

 

Saad five million a year, five years, as a Wing fan I am drooling, tho that is an awful lot for a winger. If someone does not offer sheet this boy then collusion needs to be called on the owners.

Most people think they will match anything 5 million and under. It is when it becomes a 1st, 2nd and 3rd at just over 5 million that they will likely walk on.

 

But it will mean bye bye Brent Seabrook, Sharp or someone similar

[fanaticV3.0]

If you are a GM, what's your approach when it is a weak class? It doesn't really matter for the best of the best, but if you are good team looking to get better, or a bad team looking to get better, it's hard to justify doing nothing at all. I'm not a supporter of going out and getting somebody just because there are free agents out there. However, if you look at the Flyers for example, they need players. They have legit needs and are not going to get better without improving the line up (and a bunch of prospects ain't going to do sh-t without some vets to lean on).

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

If you are a GM, what's your approach when it is a weak class? It doesn't really matter for the best of the best, but if you are good team looking to get better, or a bad team looking to get better, it's hard to justify doing nothing at all. I'm not a supporter of going out and getting somebody just because there are free agents out there. However, if you look at the Flyers for example, they need players. They have legit needs and are not going to get better without improving the line up (and a bunch of prospects ain't going to do sh-t without some vets to lean on).

 

 

I am probably oversimplifying, but I would just look at what my team needs, look at where I am at the cap, then finally look at my current crop of contracts and understanding who most likely will be staying long term, who won't....then look at the 'weak class' and find some temporary solutions in the form of 'stop gap' type players/contracts to replace players I most likely won't be retaining on my current roster.

 

The key, for me anyways, would be looking at players (maybe star players or upcoming RFA's) and recognizing, "Hey, I'm gonna have to pony up if I want to keep these guys"......so in a weak FA class, look for low cost, short term solutions that will get me through the time before I have to pay big bucks for the guys I want to keep....while still having those FA signings improve my team in SOME way.

[fanaticV3.0]

I am probably oversimplifying, but I would just look at what my team needs, look at where I am at the cap, then finally look at my current crop of contracts and understanding who most likely will be staying long term, who won't....then look at the 'weak class' and find some temporary solutions in the form of 'stop gap' type players/contracts to replace players I most likely won't be retaining on my current roster.

 

The key, for me anyways, would be looking at players (maybe star players or upcoming RFA's) and recognizing, "Hey, I'm gonna have to pony up if I want to keep these guys"......so in a weak FA class, look for low cost, short term solutions that will get me through the time before I have to pay big bucks for the guys I want to keep....while still having those FA signings improve my team in SOME way.

 

That isn't oversimplifying, that's a good place to start. Sometimes the simple answer is the beset one.

[J0e Th0rnton]

If you are a GM, what's your approach when it is a weak class? It doesn't really matter for the best of the best, but if you are good team looking to get better, or a bad team looking to get better, it's hard to justify doing nothing at all. I'm not a supporter of going out and getting somebody just because there are free agents out there. However, if you look at the Flyers for example, they need players. They have legit needs and are not going to get better without improving the line up (and a bunch of prospects ain't going to do sh-t without some vets to lean on).

if you have the picks still? Has to be your own picks too, not someone else's, you offer sheet the crap out of this year. The RFA class this season, combined with teams in Cap hell make for tempting targets.

 

Saad in Chicago(They are boned because Toews and Kane got greedy)

Hamilton in Boston (Cap hell and a Dman who could get offered 6.5) is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd worth Hamilton? I say yes.

Toffoli in LA? (cap hell and a heck of a young player who just scored 50 points, but could be had for under 5 million, which only costs a 1st and 3rd)

 

If I were the sharks GM, I am offering Mike Green and Dubnyk 6x5 each since we traded our 3rd to Dallas and can't offer sheet anyone.

 

Freaking 15 million in cap space and a. GM who HATES free agency tho. We had 10 million in cap space last season and he wastes 3 million signing Scott, Brown and Hannan and playing 5 rookies.

 

Alternatively, we can get our 3rd back from Dallas and throw an offer sheet to Bernier.

 

Sharks need. #1 goalie and an offensive defenseman.

 

We have

Vlasic/Braun

Dillon/Burns

Mueller/??????

 

Stalock???

 

Only Burns offers any offense. No balance to the pairings. Vlasic and Braun are both our best defensive Dmen, and Dillon is a good defensive D too. Mueller outplayed Hannan and Irwin easily this season, but was rushed. Irwin looked decent in the last 25 games to my amazement.

 

I would like

Vlasic/Green

DIllon/Burns

Mueller/Braun

 

Balances pairings. Vlasic is the best Defensive Dman in the league and a hell of a puck mover. green is a good offensive Dman, dynamic on the PP and move the puck well too. Lethal type pairing.

 

Dillon/Burns. One of our bright spots this season

 

Mueller/Braun. Mueller instead of being paired with Burns or Hannan like this season, gets a reliable partner to learn from who can skate and move the puck like Vlasic-lite.

 

Backed by a real goalie. Niemi broke our backs for 5 years. goodbye

[jammer2]

  The worst part about addressing your weaknesses through free agency is not the cap hit, it's the overpayment of years that is the killer. For that reason alone, free agency is gonna have less and less of an impact in the coming years. GM's are going to get a front seat for teams that are getting killed paying players past their primes and still making the top money.....a LOT of GM's are gonna see the negative impact on the cap and *finally* get smart....let someone else overpay!!

[jammer2]

Saad in Chicago(They are boned because Toews and Kane got greedy)

Hamilton in Boston (Cap hell and a Dman who could get offered 6.5) is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd worth Hamilton? I say yes.

Toffoli in LA? (cap hell and a heck of a young player who just scored 50 points, but could be had for under 5 million, which only costs a 1st and 3rd)

 

 Not 100% sold on Saad being a 5 mill a year guy, but he does add more than scoring, he's a gritty bugger who makes your team much harder to play against. I'd be ALL OVER Hamilton for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd....he is worth that and more.....and the Bruins are so tight up to the cap, they would *really* struggle to match a respectable offer.

 

 Toffoli is a fine young player, getting him for under 5 mill would be like Christmas for most GM's....I can really see teams making a move on Hamilton and Toffoli, this is the year that the collusion ends.....those guys are game changers and the ol' boys club is not gonna be able to contain the sheer greed that opposing GM's will have.

[Claude Monet]

The worst part about addressing your weaknesses through free agency is not the cap hit, it's the overpayment of years that is the killer. For that reason alone, free agency is gonna have less and less of an impact in the coming years. GM's are going to get a front seat for teams that are getting killed paying players past their primes and still making the top money.....a LOT of GM's are gonna see the negative impact on the cap and *finally* get smart....let someone else overpay!!

So basically they witnessed Homer as GM and said that's ***** crazy!

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

So basically they witnessed Homer as GM and said that's ***** crazy!

 

Either Holmgren or Burke in Toronto...

[J0e Th0rnton]

  The worst part about addressing your weaknesses through free agency is not the cap hit, it's the overpayment of years that is the killer. For that reason alone, free agency is gonna have less and less of an impact in the coming years. GM's are going to get a front seat for teams that are getting killed paying players past their primes and still making the top money.....a LOT of GM's are gonna see the negative impact on the cap and *finally* get smart....let someone else overpay!!

The thing is, the 3 teams in the worst cap hell did not go free agent route. Kinda strange. 

[RJ8812]

So basically they witnessed Homer as GM and said that's ***** crazy!

 

not really. The only bad UFA contracts Homer dished out were Bryz and Vinny (MacDonald as well, but he was re-signed and not from the UFA pool), but most teams out there that are allowed to spend money and can attract free agents all have a few bad UFA contracts as well.

[brelic]

The only bad UFA contracts Homer dished out were Bryz and Vinny (MacDonald as well, but he was re-signed and not from the UFA pool), but most teams out there that are allowed to spend money and can attract free agents all have a few bad UFA contracts as well.

 

Bryz was acquired for a 3rd rounder, an AHL player, and future considerations, and was then signed to a ridiculous contract before he ever hit free agency. 

 

Same strategy with MacDud. Same strategy with Streit.

[RJ8812]

Bryz was acquired for a 3rd rounder, an AHL player, and future considerations, and was then signed to a ridiculous contract before he ever hit free agency. 

 

Same strategy with MacDud. Same strategy with Streit.

 

ya...so what's your point? Still UFA deals, only that we traded for their rights before they hit the market in order to avoid a bidding war, except that when it comes to Bryz, Holmgren was basically in a bidding war with himself since it didn't seem like anyone else was interested in him.

 

There's really nothing wrong with that strategy as long as it's done right.