The Curious Case of Medvedev's Benching

[hf101]

I tried man.... dont even bother   The search function is not all that great...I will happily take your word for it.

 

 

 

I'll try to track them down when I get home tonight. The search feature for this site seems to only index a year's worth of posts, though. This was two or three years ago.

 

 

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[murraycraven]

It was always too much for Voracek. Always.

 

Should honestly have waited until he showed he could do it again. Never understood the rush to sign when they did. Yes, I know all the "reasons".

 

This goes back to "overvaluing the players." I like Jake a lot but he's still a 20-25 goal scorer. Every other player even making $7M or more at right wing has been a consistent 30-goal scorer in this league.

 

$8M IMO was, is and always will be ridiculous for Jake.

 

The Flyers have one of the highest-paid, lowest goal scoring duos in the league.

 

And they're having trouble scoring goals.

 

Go figure.

 

 

OK, fine, but Jake's a 22, 23, 22 goal scorer for the Flyers. He could certainly reach 22, 23 goals by season's end. And that's great.

 

But it's not $8M great.

 

You aren't seriously comparing Voracek apples-to-apples with Crosby, Getzlaf and Kopitar are you? Last year was Kopitar's first sub-25-goal season since his rookie year. Crosby hasn't scored less than 30 in a full season ever. In the past three seasons Getzlaf has 15 in 44, 31, 25 goals. Jake has never scored 25.

 

Honestly, he's something along the lines of a Jason Pominville but with less of a scoring touch. Pommer had 80 points in 82 games in 07-08 and has one 70+point season since, while still posting 30 goals in 11-12 and 13-14.

 

Pominville is a $5.6M cap hit (signed through 18-19) and Jake would be Just Fine if he was around even $6M.

 

At $8M, he's IMO never going to be "that player"

 

Pains me to say it, and I wish it wasn't true.

 

Hope it's not.

 

But IMO it will be...

 

 

 

You just summed up everything for me perfectly Rad.  Well done...

 

This was my argument when he was signed and will be until he produces at an elite level.  A lot of players have one great season.  Again,and for the record, I am not saying Jake is not that type of player, but one year to me, does not qualify the deal Hextall signed him to.

[aziz]

You spelled $8.25M wrong.

Yes, sorry. My point wasn't to compare voracek to anyone or debate his contract. I was just pointing out that ~11 games do not a season make, and there are tons of precedent for quality players having very dry spells, even several going on right now. The comment I was responding to was throwing in the towel on voracek's career due entirely to the past three weeks. And that is nuts.

[radoran]

Yes, sorry. My point wasn't to compare voracek to anyone or debate his contract. I was just pointing out that ~11 games do not a season make, and there are tons of precedent for quality players having very dry spells, even several going on right now. The comment I was responding to was throwing in the towel on voracek's career due entirely to the past three weeks. And that is nuts.

 

To be clear, I'm certainly not throwing in a towel on his career.

 

I think the will continue to be the producer he's been. That's just not an 81-point-per-season producer. IMO he's a 20-25 goal, 60-65 point player.

 

Which is not good news for a team that just plunked down $66M over eight years for him.

[Howie58]

It's certainly a club in his bag - but I don't know that a "wake up" would make the rest of the team faster.

 

Snider has asked rhetorically in the past if they have simply overvalued some of their players. He obviously said "no" - but I think there is a strong argument to be made that they may have.

 

The direction of the team isn't going to change with a "wake up" trade of a Matt Read or even a Wayne Simmonds or a Sean Couturier. And aside from the VeeGees and Streit - there's not a whole lot that other teams are going to be clamoring after.

 

I keep harping on it, but the long term damage done to this franchise by Paul Holmgren cannot be overstated.

Rad:  As always, you have a lot of wisdom.  Agreed...Homer's havoc casts a long shadow.  I just have a feeling this group is not going to gel the way we may have hoped.  Even acquiring picks and/or room for calling up the youngsters might help. This group looks really uninspired under a new coach. And if the PK is so diminished as a result of PEB and Coots' absence....we are in really, really bad shape.

 

Best,

 

Howie

[OccamsRazor]

ok, .... then how about they are showcasing Schultz  

 ...  I can hope right?

 

 

Thanks for my morning laugh....now i have coffee to clean up!!!

[OccamsRazor]

It was always too much for Voracek. Always.
 
Should honestly have waited until he showed he could do it again. Never understood the rush to sign when they did. Yes, I know all the "reasons".
 
This goes back to "overvaluing the players." I like Jake a lot but he's still a 20-25 goal scorer. Every other player even making $7M or more at right wing has been a consistent 30-goal scorer in this league.
 
$8M IMO was, is and always will be ridiculous for Jake.
 
The Flyers have one of the highest-paid, lowest goal scoring duos in the league.
 
And they're having trouble scoring goals.
 
Go figure.

 

THIS!!!!

[OccamsRazor]

@radoran

 

It's like they are so concerned with signing someone early so they don't get priced so high that they can't afford them...but honestly i can't remember when has this happened and it burnt the Flyers?

 

When have they waited to late on a stud talent and lost out on them and they signed elsewhere??

 

I need my memory jogged for real?

 

I can't think of one. But i can sure think of a few they rushed to sign to bloated deal and end up getting stuck like a pig in a ditch!!!

 

So why i ask you can they not once wait and see with guys? Why? The only time i've seen this is with Brayden right now! Which i think is a smart move.

[radoran]

@radoran

 

It's like they are so concerned with signing someone early so they don't get priced so high that they can't afford them...but honestly i can't remember when has this happened and it burnt the Flyers?

 

When have they waited to late on a stud talent and lost out on them and they signed elsewhere??

 

I need my memory jogged for real?

 

I can't think of one. But i can sure think of a few they rushed to sign to bloated deal and end up getting stuck like a pig in a ditch!!!

 

So why i ask you can they not once wait and see with guys? Why? The only time i've seen this is with Brayden right now! Which i think is a smart move.

 

The Flyers have a terrible tendency to sign guys based on the player they want them to be instead of the player they are.

 

They seem to think - as an organization (this has gone on for a while) - that giving a guy a ton of money will make him a better player.

 

I almost guarantee you they will deal BSchenn.

[OccamsRazor]

I almost guarantee you they will deal BSchenn.

 

After watching them play i agree (and i know we joke about this but i mean it this time...his value will be no higher than now!). Someone will have to go but i feel it won't be just him on the way out...

[radoran]

After watching them play i agree. Someone will have to go but i feel it won't be just him on the way out...

 

Sure, but is BSchenn really "the issue" with this team?

 

It ain't all VLC (who has played, what? two games?) and MacDud (who isn't even on the roster).

 

And as I just noted to Digity on another thread, they have 10 fowards, 3 D and both goalies under contract for next year, too.

[OccamsRazor]

Sure, but is BSchenn really "the issue" with this team?

 

Oh i agree for once i'm not singling him out for bad play.

 

I still think he has stretches where he disappears though and in inconsistent but overall i have been pretty pleased with him he does bring a physical element to the forwards...and i'm afraid he might be the type of after we deal him he'll take off and be the 1st one to be a regret thread us Flyers love for many years....but someone has to go to get something of value in return you can't deal garbage for something of value in the real world.

[radoran]

and i'm afraid he might be the type of after we deal him he'll take off and be the 1st one to be a regret thread us Flyers love for many years

 

Compare his early seasons to Voracek's.

 

In Schenn's third full season (last year) he was 18-28-46. Voracek's third season was 14-32-46.

 

Age is a little different, but the similarities are striking.

[OccamsRazor]

In Schenn's third full season (last year) he was 18-28-46. Voracek's third season was 14-32-46.

 

Oh great catch so let's hand him 66 million then!!!!!

[elmatus]

I think the question will be up to how much money he wants to sign for on his next contract. If Hexy can sign him for a good price, there's little reason to trade him away. Rad is right in that he is still young and has the pedigree to be a good player. Sure, he may never be a 30 goal scorer (though he also may), but if he can net 20-25 each year, that's not a bad second line, especially if he can morph into a decent LW.

 

Bottom line: At this point I would say he's at least earned a solid negotiation to see how much it would cost to keep him. I really don't think he's a problem player. In fact, he's been better than a lot of others I won't bother mentioning. I think the Simmonds price tag is a good yard stick. If Hex can get him for ~4mil, he would probably be worth keeping around. How he's going to do that while remaining cap compliant is of course a good question to ask.

[aziz]

To be clear, I'm certainly not throwing in a towel on his career.

I think the will continue to be the producer he's been. That's just not an 81-point-per-season producer. IMO he's a 20-25 goal, 60-65 point player.

Which is not good news for a team that just plunked down $66M over eight years for him.

I know you weren't saying that.

Still, the guy has averaged .89 p/g over the last three seasons. That isn't $8mil worth of production, but it's a chunk more than 60-65 points. The combination of voracek-giroux averaged 1.88 p/g over that span. The Flyers are definitely paying a premium, but there aren't a ton of teams out there with top lines producing way over that.

I think the idea with jumping the gun a little on voracek (and arguably giroux) was to completely remove the question marks from those areas that have been "solved". For a team with as many questions are the Flyers, I can see it being valuable to lock parts up and say, "ok, top line center and RW are settled, let's focus on the rest."

It is too much cap space for the guy, but not obscenely so. If he and giroux can get their heads back on straight and get back to combining for 3+ points every 2 games (albeit, too reliant on PP points), then I don't have much of an issue. Especially given all of the other areas the Flyers are having problems.

[elmatus]

A lot of the issues with G and V start on the back end as well. They are not the best players to be carrying the puck into the zone. Some forwards are very very good (see: Ovechkin, Duchene), but really not all that many. For the most part, the better forwards of the league tend to have some pretty solid dmen backing them up, helping them clear the neutral zone, helping them keep possession, knowing when to pinch and so forth. The current Flyers group has about -7 such dmen on the roster.

 

Give them some truly decent dmen, and I expect it would go a long way. G in particular is an extremely good player. He just can't do everything himself. Not many can.

[OccamsRazor]

Sure, he may never be a 30 goal scorer (though he also may)

 

Neither have Giroux or Jake! Good lord if he ever does that could cost the Flyers 80 million!!!

[elmatus]

Yeah, like many around here, I'm starting to look at the Jake signing as a costly mistake. Hopefully he proves us all wrong by the end of the year.

 

That said, I don't see G the same way at all. I think G would be amazing on a team with a strong supporting cast. He doesn't have that right now. It's as simple as that.

[radoran]

I think the question will be up to how much money he wants to sign for on his next contract. If Hexy can sign him for a good price, there's little reason to trade him away. Rad is right in that he is still young and has the pedigree to be a good player. Sure, he may never be a 30 goal scorer (though he also may), but if he can net 20-25 each year, that's not a bad second line, especially if he can morph into a decent LW.

 

Bottom line: At this point I would say he's at least earned a solid negotiation to see how much it would cost to keep him. I really don't think he's a problem player. In fact, he's been better than a lot of others I won't bother mentioning. I think the Simmonds price tag is a good yard stick. If Hex can get him for ~4mil, he would probably be worth keeping around. How he's going to do that while remaining cap compliant is of course a good question to ask.

 

Schenn is an RFA so I'd imagine the team is afraid of a possible arbitration. A Couturier-priced deal would be nice (not length please)

 

Buy out VLC. If not a trade, it has to be done.

[jammer2]

@aziz   I think Jake has undeniable talent, but the main thing that worries me is the lack of creativity. He will always be dependent on Giroux to score anything close to 8.25 mill a year pace,, if he does at all. So, if heaven forbid G went down with a career ending injury, you just basically wiped out our entire offense.

[Bakanekimiwa]

@aziz   I think Jake has undeniable talent, but the main thing that worries me is the lack of creativity. He will always be dependent on Giroux to score anything close to 8.25 mill a year pace,, if he does at all. So, if heaven forbid G went down with a career ending injury, you just basically wiped out our entire offense.

 

Still pretty relevant analysis of G and V's effectiveness together and apart. http://sonsofpenn.com/flyers/analyzing-the-flyers-dynamic-duo-claude-giroux-and-jakub-voracek/

[Podein25]

the main thing that worries me is the lack of creativity

 

 

I took aziz up on this earlier, but I don't really get this lack of creativity theme. I mean these are elite players. Are we saying that only Patrick Kane can make a play like this one from last night?:

 

 

I say no. Great play for sure. But the basics of that play are hardly unique or foreign. Hell, I've made that play. Not lately, but I have.

 

I'm sorry, but I just don't buy this line of reasoning. 

[aziz]

@aziz I think Jake has undeniable talent, but the main thing that worries me is the lack of creativity. He will always be dependent on Giroux to score anything close to 8.25 mill a year pace,, if he does at all. So, if heaven forbid G went down with a career ending injury, you just basically wiped out our entire offense.

I don't know if I agree with that at all, though. Voracek definitely needs quality linemates to be successful, but he does a lot of things very very well. Enough things and well enough that I think he is going to be a top 10ish RW for a while, so long as his linemates aren't complete garbage.

[OccamsRazor]

So from recent tweet Medvedev is headed back to Philly with a LBI.

So was this the real reason he was scratched or was he injured in practice and that is why Manning is playing again after a horrible last game?

Not sure.