The Problem

[JR Ewing]

Mostly a joke post, but I was amused by this picture:

 

 

Taylor Hall, like every other player who ever played, is imperfect. But I don't consider him to be the problem in Edmonton.

 

The biggest problems:

-The team is still paying for the mistakes of Kevin Lowe, Steve Tambellini, and Craig MacTavish. Their sins were myriad and mortal.

-SO much turnover. See above point.

-A sub-par defence crowded with men who would not be able to crack most other lineups. ChiaPete has no choice but to burn off the Ference and Nikitin contracts, and find a new home for Mark Fayne.

-This year in particular: injuries. Brutal and terrible injuries to most their most important players. Strangely, Taylor Hall has been the only one to remain healthy. Strange times.

 

[Podein25]

@JR Ewing

 

Giroux could use one of those signs. Once you get a few D-men, things should get better, no? What's your take on Talbot? Is he the one?

[AJgoal]

I was expecting to see:

 

[JR Ewing]

27 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

@JR Ewing

 

Giroux could use one of those signs. Once you get a few D-men, things should get better, no? What's your take on Talbot? Is he the one?

 

Talbot's SV% is .918 and the league average is .911, and if you look at his games when Andrew Ference was removed from the lineup, that SV% climbs to .923, which is damn near his big 2015 season in NY. Ference aside, numbers like those are very nice on a team that struggles in their own end. I'd say they've found their starter.

[yave1964]

1 hour ago, JR Ewing said:

 

Talbot's SV% is .918 and the league average is .911, and if you look at his games when Andrew Ference was removed from the lineup, that SV% climbs to .923, which is damn near his big 2015 season in NY. Ference aside, numbers like those are very nice on a team that struggles in their own end. I'd say they've found their starter.

Talbot, IMHO is a body, a capable guy to hold the net while they figure out what is going on. I don't see him as the problem but not the solution either.

  Obviously you watch a ton of Oilers games, I watch them 5-6 times a year (plus highlights on NHL network) so I am a bit limited but my take:

Obviously Hall, Draisatl and McDavid are anchor pieces.

I love Eberle but he may be the piece that needs moved to add a d-man.

RNH was rumored to be going to Nashville for Jones b4 he wound up in Columbus. That may have been the right move.

 

  I like the forwards, they are acquiring an identity. They do not have a ton of depth in the AHL so they have to be careful about trading a key piece.

 

Defense, I have watched and studied Sekera (I live defensemen, I usually pick one to watch on a given night) I watched one game that he was wretched, minus three or minus four, God knows how many times the puck jumped over his stick and bounced out of the offensive zone.

  A few nights later he had a power play goal and an assist and was, I believe the second star of the game. That, to me, sums him up. Great one night, awful the next.

 The rest of the defense is a bunch of leftovers, trying to get Klefbom and Nurse and their size and skill into the mix. Overall, I do not think the defense is the problem, other than having no Letang or Subban. But Klefbom and Nurse could start to develop, and if they both develop this could be a serious plus.

 

 So yeah, I like the Oilers going forward, a lot to be truthful. I like the mix of Letestu, Maroon and Korpikoski playing bottom six energy roles with a tad bit of offense and a lot of heart.

 

  It is a very deep free agent class this year, a lot of B and B plus players, another middle six forward, another quality d-man (Hamonic?) and a bit of luck, the Oilers could be in the conversation next year for a playoff spot. I can see a plan here, every move makes sense.

 

[JR Ewing]

@yave1964

 

-Talbot. Getting quality starts above AHL level was a major issue for the Oilers, and he's done that. I'd say it's a solution even if he's not an All-Star calibre player.

-Eberle. That's the guy I would move. He's really quite good at what he does, but doesn't bring other assets to the table.

-RNH for Jones... I consider it a risk for Columbus, and it would have been for the Oilers as well. I understand, though, that they could use what Jones may bring to the table in the future. May.

-Sekera. I think that's a pretty good assessment, and it could be down a lot to where he plays in the lineup on a team like the Oilers. He's playing more minutes on the PP than he should. due to injuries, and it hurts them. He must lead the league in dented forward's shin pads.

-Klefbom: He was already very good when he broke his finger and suffered his subsequent staph infection. From there, though, it's tough to develop when you're hurt.

-Nurse: Started out very nicely, but the game seems to have sped up for him as the season has gone on. Not surprising. If I've learned anything over my years of watching hockey, it's that most defensemen develop by sundial, and development doesn't occur in a straight line.

Maroon: was very happy with his pickup and thrilled with the low price. Can play up and down the batting order, and brings something the team was badly lacking.

Free agents. Does Chiarelli reach out to Milan Lucic?

Hamonic? Yes, he would fit very nicely.

[yave1964]

Wow never gave a thought to Lucic, he might be perfect in Edmonton. His schtick wears thin but he would bring an edge to the Oilers that they do not have. I am not a big believer in todays game in the theory of 'protection' for young studs, Lucic would not be the new McSorley or Semenko is what I am saying. But the Oilers forwards, at least the skill ones play a bit soft and he would help change that. Two, at most three years is the absolute most I would give at this point of his career.

[JR Ewing]

9 minutes ago, yave1964 said:

Wow never gave a thought to Lucic, he might be perfect in Edmonton. His schtick wears thin but he would bring an edge to the Oilers that they do not have. I am not a big believer in todays game in the theory of 'protection' for young studs, Lucic would not be the new McSorley or Semenko is what I am saying. But the Oilers forwards, at least the skill ones play a bit soft and he would help change that. Two, at most three years is the absolute most I would give at this point of his career.

 

Yeah, I'm not a big proponent of the protection thing either, and never really was. But, especially with how fast the game is, you can't afford to have two skilled players matched up with a Coke machine that can't even take a pass. I wonder about Lucic because of

 

-his prior relationship with Peter Chiarelli. Obviously, I have no idea if their dealings with each other were good. The feelings can't be TOO bad, since Lucic definitely got paid was while Pete was the boss in Boston.

-Chiarelli has improved size so far. Patrick Maroon bring a big body that can play with skill, though he's not mean like Lucic. Zack Kassian is a dink to play against, and is hitting everything that moves and getting in faces... But the possession game hasn't been amazing with him on the ice.

-Lucic is a good age: old enough to have experience in high leverage situations, but still young enough to be part of the McDavid cluster.

 

 

 

[J0e Th0rnton]

5 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

 

Talbot's SV% is .918 and the league average is .911, and if you look at his games when Andrew Ference was removed from the lineup, that SV% climbs to .923, which is damn near his big 2015 season in NY. Ference aside, numbers like those are very nice on a team that struggles in their own end. I'd say they've found their starter.

Talbot has been good enough that I am giving serious consideration to keeping him over Hellboy. With the right offseason tweaks, particularly shoring up that defense, a healthy Oilers squad could mean a lot of wins, saves, less losses and a respectable Sv% and GAA.

 

Since Pavelec has another year on his contract, Hellboy is not guaranteed to be starter net year, although I would wager he has a 75% chance of taking that job and running with it and I am certain he will be better long term. Also depends what the Jets do to fix their problems.

 

But how each team fixes will no doubt influence my decision.

 

McDavid is for real. Draisaitl reminds me of Thornton so much. Hall is a superstar in his own right and RNH and Eberle are both moveable to fix defense if the right trade comes along.

 

Lucic is a very real target. Arguably nobody is shopping a #1 Dman, but adding another solid winger makes Eberle that much more expendable and RNH already is expendable.

The UFA market is not very accommodating on the defense front. You are stacked with left handed Dmen and need righties. That eliminates stop gaps like Hamhuis and Yandle since they play horrid on their off sides. Strangely, your better point men are lefties(Sekera + Klefbom), so a stop gap of Luke Schenn on the right is not terrible. He is close to Hamonic in play value.
 

 

Quite frankly, the most enticing targets in trade are guys like Hamonic for top 4(Okposo and Nielsen are UFA, so either RNH or Eberle may intrigue them, but the Isles would need to add for sure), and Shattenkirk for top pair, although he stepped back this season(RNH may intrigue them as Backes goes UFA and Lehtera is not a #1 C and Fabbri is developing). Spurgeon would have been a bit enticing as he is a solid #3 Dman, but his resigning tells me they are keeping him. Shame too because they could use a #1 C

 

Don't shoot the messenger here, but Streit would not be a terrible stop gap trade since he is better than the UFA market and only has one more year. The ducks may move Vatanen since Shea Theodore looks ready and able, but he is one of their only right shots, so they might rather move Fowler, who shoots left.

 

 

 

[yave1964]

18 hours ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

Talbot has been good enough that I am giving serious consideration to keeping him over Hellboy. With the right offseason tweaks, particularly shoring up that defense, a healthy Oilers squad could mean a lot of wins, saves, less losses and a respectable Sv% and GAA.

 

Since Pavelec has another year on his contract, Hellboy is not guaranteed to be starter net year, although I would wager he has a 75% chance of taking that job and running with it and I am certain he will be better long term. Also depends what the Jets do to fix their problems.

 

But how each team fixes will no doubt influence my decision.

 

McDavid is for real. Draisaitl reminds me of Thornton so much. Hall is a superstar in his own right and RNH and Eberle are both moveable to fix defense if the right trade comes along.

 

Lucic is a very real target. Arguably nobody is shopping a #1 Dman, but adding another solid winger makes Eberle that much more expendable and RNH already is expendable.

The UFA market is not very accommodating on the defense front. You are stacked with left handed Dmen and need righties. That eliminates stop gaps like Hamhuis and Yandle since they play horrid on their off sides. Strangely, your better point men are lefties(Sekera + Klefbom), so a stop gap of Luke Schenn on the right is not terrible. He is close to Hamonic in play value.
 

 

Quite frankly, the most enticing targets in trade are guys like Hamonic for top 4(Okposo and Nielsen are UFA, so either RNH or Eberle may intrigue them, but the Isles would need to add for sure), and Shattenkirk for top pair, although he stepped back this season(RNH may intrigue them as Backes goes UFA and Lehtera is not a #1 C and Fabbri is developing). Spurgeon would have been a bit enticing as he is a solid #3 Dman, but his resigning tells me they are keeping him. Shame too because they could use a #1 C

 

Don't shoot the messenger here, but Streit would not be a terrible stop gap trade since he is better than the UFA market and only has one more year. The ducks may move Vatanen since Shea Theodore looks ready and able, but he is one of their only right shots, so they might rather move Fowler, who shoots left.

 

 

 

RNH would have a great value to a team that lacks a true number one center, I think he would become a massive player in Minnesota who is still playing the overaged Koivu and the overrated Granlund and a winger in coyle at center. Hell, they even traded for Stoll this year and gave him ice time when he is clearly done.

  Minnesota has defensemen to spare, a middle six winger and a solid defenseman for RNH at this point would be a good return, health is becoming an issue and he is clearly the third best center on his own team that has holes elsewhere. I think these two teams would be an ideal fit in a trade.

[OccamsRazor]

 

One picture says a 1,000 words...................

[Podein25]

Very interesting comments on the NHLPA at the end

 

 

[JR Ewing]

34 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

Very interesting comments on the NHLPA at the end

 

 

Do you have a feeling that if there wasn't a mandated day off, they'd be on the ice, with no pucks to be seen, doing the work they couldn't be bothered to do the night before?

 

[Podein25]

29 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

 

Do you have a feeling that if there wasn't a mandated day off, they'd be on the ice, with no pucks to be seen, doing the work they couldn't be bothered to do the night before?

 

 

Oh you know it.

 

I don't think I've ever heard a coach mention PA-mandated days off before. Have you?

 

I guess he should have just bag-skated them that night after the game, before the clock struck midnight and their "shift" was over. 

[AJgoal]

Like this?

 

 

[JR Ewing]

39 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

Oh you know it.

 

I don't think I've ever heard a coach mention PA-mandated days off before. Have you?

 

I guess he should have just bag-skated them that night after the game, before the clock struck midnight and their "shift" was over. 

 

Man, I couldn't imagine that in this day and age. But otherwise... That's probably what they're doing this very moment.

 

[BluPuk]

Pushing these guys at practice isn't going to work. The fault is not in the players.

A change by upper management is required - and  not the coach. They need a yard sale.

 

This team is way worse than the Leafs right now. I feel sorry for Oilers' fans. Chiarelli has a lot of work to do in the off-season.

[Podein25]

5 hours ago, BluPuk said:

Pushing these guys at practice isn't going to work. The fault is not in the players.

A change by upper management is required - and  not the coach. They need a yard sale.

 

This team is way worse than the Leafs right now. I feel sorry for Oilers' fans. Chiarelli has a lot of work to do in the off-season.

 

Except it appears from the coach's comments that the players cant be bothered to try. That's how they ended up with a fan throwing a jersey onto the ice last year, the ultimate humiliation. So they have to change the culture and that means moving guys out. Eberle must be top of the list right now. His play on Sat night sure looked like a guy who doesn't want to be there.

[JR Ewing]

Dreger: Oilers' brass told me Hall close to untouchable

 

Quote

 

Darren Dreger was on Montreal’s TSN 690 on Tuesday morning.

On what it means specifically when the Edmonton Oilers talk about ‘culture change’ for this off-season:

“Well, I think they’re going to move a good piece, a big piece, maybe more than that. There’s always been the rumblings of Jordan Eberle, and those kind of settled over the course of this season, particularly during that stretch where he was magical with Connor McDavid. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins then became the more popular target.

“There have been whispers all along of the potential of, say, Taylor Hall. For me, that’s a stretch. I know when I suggested Taylor Hall to be part of the problem – I think it was early last season, or just prior to the start of the season after Dallas Eakins and everyone got pushed out of there – there was just a groundswell of reaction to that. Many powerful people around Taylor Hall came to his defense.

“I think that for the most part he had a real good year. Things tailed off for him in the second half. But when I approached the Edmonton Oilers near the trade deadline  – and we’re talking about not just Peter Chiarelli, but those above him – and asked, ‘Okay, we’re putting this list together going into deadline day. We know about Eberle. We know about the possibility of Nugent-Hopkins,’ even though there was injury in play at that point. ‘Is it conceivable that Taylor Hall could be a moveable piece, if not at the deadline, then perhaps at the summer.’

“And the message that I got back was, ‘Look. There’s one untouchable and his name is Connor McDavid. The next on that list is Taylor Hall being close to untouchable.’

“So it falls into the old game of, ‘What’s it going to take?’ It would take a monstrous type of deal. So we can’t say that he’s untouchable, but he’s close to being untouchable.

“But I do believe one of those bigger pieces is going to get moved.”

 

 

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/dreger-oilers-brass-told-hall-close-untouchable/

 

 

[JR Ewing]

30 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

Except it appears from the coach's comments that the players cant be bothered to try. That's how they ended up with a fan throwing a jersey onto the ice last year, the ultimate humiliation. So they have to change the culture and that means moving guys out. Eberle must be top of the list right now. His play on Sat night sure looked like a guy who doesn't want to be there.

 

About a week before the trade deadline, the Oilers played a terrible game, and McLellan shared his beliefs. When asked about how to remove the major gaffes, lazy play and carelessness from their games he was blunt in response: "Maybe we get rid of some players."

 

Todd McLellan must be sick to death of watching certain guys do the same stupid and lazy things over and over. I know that I am, and my career doesn't ride on them turning it around. In the meantime, practice wasn't much fun for the players yesterday:

 

 

[JR Ewing]

I have an actual, real problem we can identify with the Edmonton Oilers, and the way they have developed players during this period, and how it has hurt them at the NHL level. Basically, their idea of development has been one of two options:

 

a) "We must load our AHL team with veteran players, from whom the prospects will learn work habits." The prospect then play 3rd and 4th line minutes at a young age, when they need TONS of ice time to develop. By 22 or 23, Oilers brass says "Gee, these kids didn't turn out the way we thought they might. Oh well, the draft is a crapshoot."

b) "This kid is a terrific prospect. He needs to play in the NHL right now." They come into the league right out of the draft and are given tons of icetime regardless of whether or not they're getting killed out there. The team then says "Gee, some of these guys didn't seem to learn proper habits."

 

Essentially, they've had it bass ackwards. If you're going to gift time to a young player to develop, you do it at the AHL level, not the NHL. The AHL kids get a chance to play in all situations and without such harsh developmental penalties when they play poorly, and all without such a harsh gaze on them. The NHL is not a developmental league. Of the young players they've developed, only one (Nugent-Hopkins) has dedicated himself to playing an all-around game and can contribute in all situations (ES, PP, PK), with Hall really only getting the idea this year.

 

That's the sort of thing that can happen when players are gifted time right away in the NHL, and that's not the player's fault.

 

 

[Podein25]

2 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

I have an actual, real problem we can identify with the Edmonton Oilers, and the way they have developed players during this period, and how it has hurt them at the NHL level. Basically, their idea of development has been one of two options:

 

a) "We must load our AHL team with veteran players, from whom the prospects will learn work habits." The prospect then play 3rd and 4th line minutes at a young age, when they need TONS of ice time to develop. By 22 or 23, Oilers brass says "Gee, these kids didn't turn out the way we thought they might. Oh well, the draft is a crapshoot."

b) "This kid is a terrific prospect. He needs to play in the NHL right now." They come into the league right out of the draft and are given tons of icetime regardless of whether or not they're getting killed out there. The team then says "Gee, some of these guys didn't seem to learn proper habits."

 

Essentially, they've had it bass ackwards. If you're going to gift time to a young player to develop, you do it at the AHL level, not the NHL. The AHL kids get a chance to play in all situations and without such harsh developmental penalties when they play poorly, and all without such a harsh gaze on them. The NHL is not a developmental league. Of the young players they've developed, only one (Nugent-Hopkins) has dedicated himself to playing an all-around game and can contribute in all situations (ES, PP, PK), with Hall really only getting the idea this year.

 

That's the sort of thing that can happen when players are gifted time right away in the NHL, and that's not the player's fault.

 

 

 

Great post. Where is the "nailed it" emoticon?

[The Mountain Man]

My take on the Oilers

 

Goal tending - Talbot wasn't the problem. Like many younger goalies in the past I believe the Oilers do have somebody who could grow into the stud to lead them deep into the playoffs. He didn't have a ton a really bad games like the last few keepers did and put up respectable numbers for a very bad team.

Defense - Sekera, Nurse, Klefbom and Davidson will be in the Top 6 for years to come. Davidson was a +7 in 51 games as a rookie (the best on the team). They do need to pick up 2 solid guys... probably a #1 and a #3 guy and let Nurse and Klefbom develop a bit more as #4 and #5 guys. Gryba and Pardy were also good pick ups and could turn out ok in a 5/6/7 role. Fayne, Nakita, and Ference are finished in Edmonton.

Offense - Hall, McDavid, Nuge, Dr.Drai, and Maroon are keepers. Eberle will be the one to be traded for a D man. Yak will be moved. Pouliot, Letestu, and Korpikoski are all lower pairing or expendable in a trade as I don't believe they will get them to the promise land.

They need a guy like Scott Hartnell !!  Hartnell will provide leadership. grit, and still put a few pucks into the net. He will take the attention off of some of the kids and still bleed for them if needed. Eberle, Pouliot, and Yakapov for Hartnell and Savard? Columbus loses a good d man but get younger up front.

Free Agents - I have not looked at our cap situation yet...but.... if we can make it work...go out and sign a couple of Top 6 right wingers... I prefer Kyle Okposo, and Juri Hudler. Grab both of them if we can afford it. Also grab Alex Goligoski.... solid Dman with a +21 this year....

 

Could we look like this next year?

 

Hall   McDavid  Hudler

Hartnell  Nuge   Okposo

Puljujarvi?  Draisaitl  Maroon

Korpikoski    Letestu  Kassian

 

Sekera   Goligoski

Klefbom   Savard

Nurse   Davidson

Gryba

 

Talbot

Broissoit

 

That line up would be greatly improved. If we were to land Puljujarvi he could slide into a third line pairing and let him grow slowly instead of throwing him to the wolves like they did with their other young guys.

 

Chiarelli will have to find ways of moving salary but with many young guys on low cap hits it is possible.

 

[JR Ewing]

@The Mountain Man I came away from Chiarelli's press event yesterday pretty happy.

 

-He sees value in Nugent-Hopkins as a "very good two-way centre", something the team isn't awash with. I was scared for awhile there.

-Given that and him mentioning "two untouchables" my guess is that Jordan Eberle is moved out. Given their comparative contracts, I wouldn't be opposed to trading Eberle, keeping Yakupov, and let the Russian play with McDavid. Much was made of Eberle's scoring with McDavid (3.79 GFON/60) but Yak's was identical (3.80)

-He intends to upgrade the defense to the extent that Nurse is playing in the American league next year.

 

-Golgoski is good, but will be over 30 next year and (worse yet) would be yet another left-handed shot on a blueline which already has too many. From the free agent, Demers would be a nice fit in age. Hamonic? Who knows what it would really take to get him.

[J0e Th0rnton]

4 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

@The Mountain Man I came away from Chiarelli's press event yesterday pretty happy.

 

-He sees value in Nugent-Hopkins as a "very good two-way centre", something the team isn't awash with. I was scared for awhile there.

-Given that and him mentioning "two untouchables" my guess is that Jordan Eberle is moved out. Given their comparative contracts, I wouldn't be opposed to trading Eberle, keeping Yakupov, and let the Russian play with McDavid. Much was made of Eberle's scoring with McDavid (3.79 GFON/60) but Yak's was identical (3.80)

-He intends to upgrade the defense to the extent that Nurse is playing in the American league next year.

 

-Golgoski is good, but will be over 30 next year and (worse yet) would be yet another left-handed shot on a blueline which already has too many. From the free agent, Demers would be a nice fit in age. Hamonic? Who knows what it would really take to get him.

If Eberle goes for Hamonic, it might be worth it. People will say Eberle is worth more(and on paper he is), but goddamn the guy is soft and one of the first guys to point to regarding "losing culture"

 

A D core of Klefbom(Healthy), Sekera and Hamonic looks significantly better than this year.

 

And we can add to that.

 

The Oilers pick this year could be a godsend in a trade. They don't need it.

 

The UFA market can only improve that ragtag group of AHL defenders. But a trade would work better. Problem is, the kind of Dmen they need don't get traded often.