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icehole

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On 1/19/2017 at 3:58 PM, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

This way is the best. The only downside for this for you as they are still in the rebuild...so you'll have to wait 3-5 years before we can truly look back with hindsight to know if it will work so i guess we sit and wait...i'm game...it is what i expected...time will tell.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I feel like the flyers are being built to be a really good team that will get no farther than the second round every season.  Unless they find a guy or two that is a surprise superstar found in the second half of the first round, they won't be able to compete with the teams that get through 1-3 pick.

 

Also, I know defense is important, but the teams that use the 1-3 pick for a defenseman don't seem to improve as fast as the teams that pick a top forward.  There's something that a superstar forward can do for a team to build momentum that a defenseman can't.  I think Toronto and buffalo are already a better team than the flyers (although buffalo's record doesn't show that).

 

So to answer my own question, the best way is to cheat the bad system and flop for 3 or 4 years.  Get some good players and a superstar.  That's the way to a championship.  I will never advocate that because I am fine with just watching fun hockey even if it never leads to a championship.

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15 minutes ago, icehole said:

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I feel like the flyers are being built to be a really good team that will get no farther than the second round every season.  Unless they find a guy or two that is a surprise superstar found in the second half of the first round, they won't be able to compete with the teams that get through 1-3 pick.

 

Also, I know defense is important, but the teams that use the 1-3 pick for a defenseman don't seem to improve as fast as the teams that pick a top forward.  There's something that a superstar forward can do for a team to build momentum that a defenseman can't.  I think Toronto and buffalo are already a better team than the flyers (although buffalo's record doesn't show that).

 

So to answer my own question, the best way is to cheat the bad system and flop for 3 or 4 years.  Get some good players and a superstar.  That's the way to a championship.  I will never advocate that because I am fine with just watching fun hockey even if it never leads to a championship.

 

 

Well you're entitled to your opinion.

 

Myself i think it will work.

 

As long as they keep selecting good talent regardless of where they are picking it and holding onto it and nuture it till they are ready to join the big club.

 

Weed out the ones who don't fit the team mold they are building.

 

It will take time and patience. 

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1 hour ago, icehole said:

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I feel like the flyers are being built to be a really good team that will get no farther than the second round every season.  Unless they find a guy or two that is a surprise superstar found in the second half of the first round, they won't be able to compete with the teams that get through 1-3 pick.

 

Hextall is in year three of his rebuild. Most of the players he's drafted aren't even in the NHL yet. He's still trying to get rid of some of Holmgrens mistakes. While I agree with you he still needs to find some star forwards, he's done a pretty good job of filling up the goalie and defence prospect cupboard, which is more difficult than finding forwards....which he can now concentrate on.

 

Quote

 

Also, I know defense is important, but the teams that use the 1-3 pick for a defenseman don't seem to improve as fast as the teams that pick a top forward.  There's something that a superstar forward can do for a team to build momentum that a defenseman can't.  I think Toronto and buffalo are already a better team than the flyers (although buffalo's record doesn't show that).

 

Again I think it's easier to pick forwards than defence or goaltending They're generally more developed as teenagers so they likely give you a bigger bang for your buck off the bat. But if you're going to say 'superstar forward" then you should include "superstar' in the defence. Drew Doughty was as big a factor in LA winning 2 cups as anyone. The same could be said for Pronger/Lidstrom/Keith/Chara/Niedermeyer etc. 

 

Not sure how Buffalo is better than Philly...they're not. Toronto is fairly even, but is going to have to rebuild their D. Philly has to get some forwards. As previously mentioned, I'd prefer to need forwards, there's just more of them to choose from.

 

Quote

 

So to answer my own question, the best way is to cheat the bad system and flop for 3 or 4 years.  Get some good players and a superstar.  That's the way to a championship.  I will never advocate that because I am fine with just watching fun hockey even if it never leads to a championship.

I don't know if it's the best way...it's certainly easier to tank than to try and pick players later. I'm pretty confident Hextall can find some gems at the forward position over the next few drafts. He can basically focus on that position now that he's taken care of his backend. Who knows...maybe he trades a Giroux or Voracek or Simmonds for a young stud. We'll see. 

 

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1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

Well you're entitled to your opinion.

 

Myself i think it will work.

 

As long as they keep selecting good talent regardless of where they are picking it and holding onto it and nuture it till they are ready to join the big club.

 

Weed out the ones who don't fit the team mold they are building.

 

It will take time and patience. 

OK.  I can be patient.  I'll still bitch and moan on the way though :VeryCool:

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26 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Hextall is in year three of his rebuild. Most of the players he's drafted aren't even in the NHL yet. He's still trying to get rid of some of Holmgrens mistakes. While I agree with you he still needs to find some star forwards, he's done a pretty good job of filling up the goalie and defence prospect cupboard, which is more difficult than finding forwards....which he can now concentrate on.

 

 

Again I think it's easier to pick forwards than defence or goaltending They're generally more developed as teenagers so they likely give you a bigger bang for your buck off the bat. But if you're going to say 'superstar forward" then you should include "superstar' in the defence. Drew Doughty was as big a factor in LA winning 2 cups as anyone. The same could be said for Pronger/Lidstrom/Keith/Chara/Niedermeyer etc. 

 

Not sure how Buffalo is better than Philly...they're not. Toronto is fairly even, but is going to have to rebuild their D. Philly has to get some forwards. As previously mentioned, I'd prefer to need forwards, there's just more of them to choose from.

 

I don't know if it's the best way...it's certainly easier to tank than to try and pick players later. I'm pretty confident Hextall can find some gems at the forward position over the next few drafts. He can basically focus on that position now that he's taken care of his backend. Who knows...maybe he trades a Giroux or Voracek or Simmonds for a young stud. We'll see. 

 

It looks like hextall has done a good job in the draft.  Provorov has become a really good defenseman and he will only get better.  Konecny has hit a wall but he should come out of it at some point.  I don't know a whole lot about the others, but the longer they stay in the _HL and don't make it to the NHL, I get the feeling we're looking at 3rd line talent at best.  Actually what forwards are we getting excited about anyway?  Should we expect a forward with the first pick in the upcoming draft?  Will he be NHL ready by 10/17?  If we have to wait for young guys to develope, I do hope he trades giroux or voracek or both for either a young star potential already in the NHL or a top 3 draft pick.  I'm not sure if anyone other teams would do that though.

 

Toronto and buffalo might have a slightly better or slightly worse record than the flyers, but I think they're both on a better, faster track.  Toronto has a star player and a proven coach.  They have some holes though.  I actually think buffalo has a decent team, and I would be disappointed if I were part of their fan base.  I think they are underachieving.  They also have a somewhat proven coach but they have holes in defense and goaltending.  The flyers have a coach that doesn't seem to do much of anything, they're missing about 6 forwards, 4 defenseman, and a goaltender before they can be legit.

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8 minutes ago, icehole said:

It looks like hextall has done a good job in the draft.  Provorov has become a really good defenseman and he will only get better.  Konecny has hit a wall but he should come out of it at some point.  I don't know a whole lot about the others, but the longer they stay in the _HL and don't make it to the NHL, I get the feeling we're looking at 3rd line talent at best.  Actually what forwards are we getting excited about anyway?  Should we expect a forward with the first pick in the upcoming draft?  Will he be NHL ready by 10/17?  If we have to wait for young guys to develope, I do hope he trades giroux or voracek or both for either a young star potential already in the NHL or a top 3 draft pick.  I'm not sure if anyone other teams would do that though.

 

Toronto and buffalo might have a slightly better or slightly worse record than the flyers, but I think they're both on a better, faster track.  Toronto has a star player and a proven coach.  They have some holes though.  I actually think buffalo has a decent team, and I would be disappointed if I were part of their fan base.  I think they are underachieving.  They also have a somewhat proven coach but they have holes in defense and goaltending.  The flyers have a coach that doesn't seem to do much of anything, they're missing about 6 forwards, 4 defenseman, and a goaltender before they can be legit.

 

 

????-Giroux-Jake

Lindblom-Rubtsov-Simmer

Laughton-Coots-NAK

Leier-Vorobyov-Luby

 

Soon....

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9 minutes ago, icehole said:

It looks like hextall has done a good job in the draft.  Provorov has become a really good defenseman and he will only get better.  Konecny has hit a wall but he should come out of it at some point.  I don't know a whole lot about the others, but the longer they stay in the _HL and don't make it to the NHL, I get the feeling we're looking at 3rd line talent at best.  Actually what forwards are we getting excited about anyway?  Should we expect a forward with the first pick in the upcoming draft?  Will he be NHL ready by 10/17?  If we have to wait for young guys to develope, I do hope he trades giroux or voracek or both for either a young star potential already in the NHL or a top 3 draft pick.  I'm not sure if anyone other teams would do that though.

 

I think you need to show a bit more patience when it comes to draft picks. These are 18 year olds, who normally don't make the show for a few years. Rarely does an 18 year old become an NHL regular. 

Giroux certainly didn't. Or Voracek. Or Simmonds. Or Ghost. Provorov...you could go down eveery team in the league and most of their players were left in whatever league they were drafted from.

 

Rubtsov has potential to be a top 6 forward. He was juggled around the KHL/MHL for the first half of the season and has just joined Chicoutimi in the Q.  Pascal Laberge has talent in the same league. Oscar Lindblom is a 20 year old who is one of the top scorers in the SHL. He's got top 6 potential. Nicolas Aube-Kubel also is a possibility. 

 

I'd expect to draft a forward with our top pick this draft...though BPA is always the way to go. I highly doubt he will play next year...as a guess.

 

9 minutes ago, icehole said:

 

Toronto and buffalo might have a slightly better or slightly worse record than the flyers, but I think they're both on a better, faster track.  Toronto has a star player and a proven coach.  They have some holes though.  I actually think buffalo has a decent team, and I would be disappointed if I were part of their fan base.  I think they are underachieving.  They also have a somewhat proven coach but they have holes in defense and goaltending.  The flyers have a coach that doesn't seem to do much of anything, they're missing about 6 forwards, 4 defenseman, and a goaltender before they can be legit.

 

Toronto has some young forwards that are the envy of a lot of fan bases...Buffalo has a young forward and a defenceman...Philly has a handful of young defencemen and a couple of goalies. If you're talking solely about these guys I'd say there's value all the way around. I'll take the Flyers veterans for value though. Phillys coach is in his 2nd year in the NHL. Nobody was expecting Scotty Bowman.

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Forward prospects that I'm excited about: Lindblom, Rubstov, Laberge, Allison, Vorobyov, AK (I think he will turn out to be a tweener though). I think even Fazleev could be a good pro. A 3rd line checking C, perfect for after Coots is moved.

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This is a great thread.  Some oberservations:

 

1) The NBA sent one of its greatest GMs in Jerry Colangelo as a special assistant or whatever to rein in the lose forever process of Mr. Hinkie.  I don't think a league wants the Hinkie Model.  It corrodes value of all teams. As some note--I don't think Mr. Snider would tolerate it.

 

2) The luck matter factors. Certain drafts are more likely to yield game changers than others.

 

3)  The caveat/asterisk with the "patience" model and the Flyers is the mindset of the architects.  On the plus side, the O and B seem to be addressing goal and D--two positions we chronically neglected.  But I wonder if we just don't have the right aim on forwards.  I watched a Columbus game two nights ago--those people move the puck effortlessly into and within the attack zone. They have creativity (Gagner had two assists).  I worry about the O and B still viewing the world through a pre-strike mindset...find rugged forwards and don't worry about their creativity/speed.

 

 

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The best to build a team is through the draft. No doubt about it. You build balance, you build depth and you build a system for working talent into your team. Trading is an important part of building through the draft, but you never land cornerstones of your franchise - you always draft those. Usually with trading you're looking for a piece or two to help put your team over the top. The teams that have continually traded pieces looking for cornerstones are always behind the 8 ball. They deal future players, picks, etc....for the now and very seldom does that ever work.

 

You also need a bit of luck in terms of building a team. Just because you have high draft picks doesn't necessarily mean that your team will be a smashing success. Look at Edmonton. They've had numerous number one picks and they're just finally getting better after realizing that filling a lineup full of first round picks isn't a fix. You need to have a plan in place on how to incorporate these picks into the lineup and you need to have some veteran leadership along the way.

 

In all honesty, if you're building through the draft, the best idea is to start by building your defense through there. Defense is always the hardest position to fill and number one defenders are never moved unless they're long in the tooth (see Pronger, Chris) or are free agents that their respective club decided it was better for them to go in another direction (see Chara, Zdeno). Of course, there's the Subban/Weber trade, but that was more about Montreal wanting to move in another direction and Nashville wanting to get younger. Those are the exception, not the rule.

 

Forwards are easier to draft and acquire. So, forwards you should be able to trade for, but you're more likely to hit on a forward now late in the draft than you are to hit on a defenseman late in the draft.

 

The worst position of all for drafting is goaltending. Goaltender, you just never know how they're going to pan out. Honestly, the best approach to drafting goaltenders is never draft a goalie in the top 20. Goaltenders can usually be had late in the first and the second round and beyond. As well, if you have mutliple picks in rounds 2, 3 and 4, that's the ideal time to take a goaltender or two. Finally, give your goaltender as much time as they need. If they get three full years in junior and two full seasons in the AHL, and then they get called up, that's a good time frame. Some goaltenders are ahead of the curve, some are a little behind. However, 5 years after being drafted is a good time to expect a goaltender to be ready.

 

There's no easy fix to building a club though. It requires work and luck. The work is putting in the scouting and the luck is hoping that they hit on your projection. Sometimes players don't fit in one organization, but they're a home run in another. Patience is a virtue no matter what the case. And trading away your depth, prospects and picks for a run at the Stanley Cup isn't a guarantee you're going to win the Cup, but it's guarantee you'll probably set your franchise back by several years doing that.

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10 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

This is a great thread.  Some oberservations:

 

1) The NBA sent one of its greatest GMs in Jerry Colangelo as a special assistant or whatever to rein in the lose forever process of Mr. Hinkie.  I don't think a league wants the Hinkie Model.  It corrodes value of all teams. As some note--I don't think Mr. Snider would tolerate it.

 

2) The luck matter factors. Certain drafts are more likely to yield game changers than others.

 

3)  The caveat/asterisk with the "patience" model and the Flyers is the mindset of the architects.  On the plus side, the O and B seem to be addressing goal and D--two positions we chronically neglected.  But I wonder if we just don't have the right aim on forwards.  I watched a Columbus game two nights ago--those people move the puck effortlessly into and within the attack zone. They have creativity (Gagner had two assists).  I worry about the O and B still viewing the world through a pre-strike mindset...find rugged forwards and don't worry about their creativity/speed.

 

Good points Howie. I too worry about the last point.

 

But it's tricky. Look at the Jets 2.0. They were a big, fast, heavy team and made the playoffs - the only time - with that model. Now they are a much smaller, faster more skilled team that looks be out of the playoffs once again.

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9 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

Good points Howie. I too worry about the last point.

 

But it's tricky. Look at the Jets 2.0. They were a big, fast, heavy team and made the playoffs - the only time - with that model. Now they are a much smaller, faster more skilled team that looks be out of the playoffs once again.

Pods:

 

Yeah...agreed. BTW, I think our forwards are faster...maybe more skilled.  Now we are small.  But my big fear with the Flyers is that they are: a) Center-centric, and b:) still hope to find a Primeau or Clarkie to carry everyone else on their backs.

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5 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

he's done a pretty good job of filling up the goalie and defence prospect cupboard, which is more difficult than finding forwards....which he can now concentrate on.

 

5 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

Again I think it's easier to pick forwards than defence or goaltending They're generally more developed as teenagers so they likely give you a bigger bang for your buck off the bat

 

5 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

Toronto is fairly even, but is going to have to rebuild their D. Philly has to get some forwards. As previously mentioned, I'd prefer to need forwards, there's just more of them to choose from.

 

I agree with all of that.   The second part to that is that since the goalie and defence prospects are harder to find and since we have a pretty full cupboard of both, when the time comes we can trade from that strength for the forward(s).   And instead of picks going out to make up the difference between the value of the forward and the defence/goalie, the picks will be coming in.  

 

Stock up on what everyone else needs and wants and then reap the benefits on the market.   This is so simple and clear whether hockey or elsewhere.

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On 1/19/2017 at 2:58 PM, Podein25 said:

Is life a binary proposition? :fixmoustache:

 

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Toronto and Buffalo may be improving because management has improved. Shanahan and LL in the Brains Trust should lead to improvement. Tim Murray strikes me as a competent dude.

 

The O and B succeeded without a salary cap for decades.  They may have been less able to "let go" than others. We may be making up for lost time. Just a thought.

 

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

Toronto and Buffalo may be improving because management has improved. Shanahan and LL in the Brains Trust should lead to improvement. Tim Murray strikes me as a competent dude.

 

The O and B succeeded without a salary cap for decades.  They may have been less able to "let go" than others. We may be making up for lost time. Just a thought.

 

 

 

 

 

Trust me...the Leafs lived off the non-capped NHL way more than the Flyers ever did. One of, if not THE worst drafting franchise in the entire league. 

 

But yes, they have improved their front office a hundred fold.

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