B. Schenn traded to Blues for J. Lehtera and a Conditional 1st in 2018

[ruxpin]

9 minutes ago, aziz said:

edit:  unless you want to argue it.  ha.  maybe schenn's dampening of the players around him really will result in an extra 40 points from them.

Edited 2 minutes ago by aziz
making allowance

LOL

I do actually think it's likely. 

 

Without using wonky math, how would we even measure that? (your initial point, I know) 

[AJgoal]

I've gone back and forth, started out thinking the trade was great because I was picturing someone else when I heard Lehtera, then came down, and then dug into it a bit and am planted firmly in the "I have no idea if this was a good move or not" camp. Obviously, a lot hinges on what these two picks turn out to be. I'm not on board with the addition by subtraction angle, you're subtracting by subtracting here. I can buy the square peg-round hole argument, but I think I still would have prefered a player for player trade that brought back a natural LW that is already in the NHL with comparable numbers.

 

Lehtera is a mixed bag, statwise. He had 6 5v5 goals and 10 assists last season. Schenn had 4 and 17, Giroux had 6 and 12 (Note this is all 5v5, not ES which would include 4v4 and OT). He scored at a 1.17 points/60 clip, better than Simmonds and Giroux at even strength. That's not to compare skill levels, just to provide a little perspective (Understanding that Lehtera was on a better team, and did have the benefit of playing the most minutes with Tarasenko). His goals for percentage was not good, and his with and without you numbers indicate that he can be both a production drag (Tarasenko's GF% dropped ten points when with Lehtera) or he can develop chemistry and production can soar (Fabbri and Lehtera's GF% went up ten points when paired). So he's not a great player, but he's not negative value like some other contract dumps would be. So it might be fair to peg his trade value as a 2nd to take his contract, rather than a first. That plops Schenn's value in the trade at about a first and a second.

 

I still find it odd that the Flyers traded a young player for a significantly younger player at this time. I'm of the mind that the team could make the playoffs this season, and start making serious noise as early as 18-19, so moving out Schenn for futures rather than an established player of similar skill makes that harder. Now, I could see them hoping to have a Richards-Carter draft where they end up with their top two centers for the foreseeable future. Is Frost that #2 guy? I guess time will tell. 

 

What it does do is give the Flyers several shots to find some skill at forward 2-3 years from now (Rubtsov, Frost), though continued success will be largely dependant on Patrick's trajectory. So it's obvious that Hextall wants to have the pipeline continuing to backfill for players that leave, a la the Hawks. I think it's pretty much a lock now that both Patrick and Lindblom are on the team next year and Konecny flips back to his natural right side. Lehtera is the 4th line center. Laughton slides from center to LW where he might be a more effective NHLer. I really hope now (and believe it more likely) that Weal comes back. 

 

Lindblom - Giroux - Voracek

Weal - Couturier - Simmonds/Konecny

Filpulla - Patrick - Simmonds/Konecny

Laughton - Lehtera - Raffl

Weise - Read

 

That has the potential to be a pretty good forward group. There are quite a few question marks in there, though. Can Lindblom's SHL success translate as a rookie? Will Patrick be an impact player right away? Did Laughton's game actually come around in the AHL? Will Weal re-sign, and how much of a drop off will we see from him after his strong finish? Are Konecny's continued growth and the addition of the new players enough to offset losing 25 goals?

[mojo1917]

6 hours ago, icehole said:

Losing schenn for what they got in return makes this team worse for at least 3 years.  Not saying they won't get better within 3 years (hoping that some of these prospects pan out), but losing shenn takes a step back until those player do pan out and score 50+ points.

I disagree, I think he was mostly invisible 5 on 5; with his PP production, he was adequate. His 50 points don't have to come from "one guy" either.  If the Flyers are able to control the puck on zone entries, not a Schenn line strong suit, they may have more scoring opportunities. Guys like Fillpula, Lindblom, even Lehtera can pick up his slack and keep the puck in the offensive zone longer limiting the chances for the other team. I really think this will be addition by subtraction.  I have defended Schenn quite a bit, arguing that his production was some of the only scoring that was not dependent upon Giroux, but that was 2/3 years ago, since then, he's been scoring on the PP which is run through Giroux, and not driving play 5 on 5...so the main thing I liked about him diminished greatly over the last 2 years.

Truthfully I don't think we'll miss him or his points. 

 

[Philly29]

21 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

Lindblom - Giroux - Voracek

Weal - Couturier - Simmonds/Konecny

Filpulla - Patrick - Simmonds/Konecny

Laughton - Lehtera - Raffl

Weise - Read

Possibly add Vecchione in their as well.

[jammer2]

1 hour ago, ruxpin said:

I think, though, if you don't start seeing significant improvement this year or, at the very least, next year, it's time to start lighting the torches. 

 

 

 

. The huge variable for improvement is the goaltending, which is unsettled at best. As long as I"m convinced there is a plan underway, I'm ok with what happens next year.

 

 We have all been to this puppet show before, the difference is, somebody talented (a real legit difference maker IMHO) is pulling the strings. I will give Hexy all the room he needs, he has already assembled the best prospect pool I've ever seen, so the proof is in the pudding so to say.

[mojo1917]

Lehtera was just traded that tells me there isn't an NMC.  If he sucks, waive him, bury his ass in the A  who gives a **** ?

When I think of young players making an impact I think Jake Guentzel from the Pens, that guy has "it", he's always around the puck, he knows what to do with it when it's on his tape and he makes plays when they need making. To a lesser extent, Connor Sheary is a similar player.

When did we ever write these things about Schenn in his 5 years or whatever with the team?  

I can't remember seeing that, and we weren't going to start, his production did increase, but then it plateaued and he is a WYSIWYG player, he's not "growing" there isn't more to his game. 

The league is moving towards having these fast, smart players, that isn't Schenn. 

He is not fast, he is always a step behind the play, that's why he didn't work with Giroux, he couldn't keep up mentally.

Good riddance. 

@vis @aziz

you guys make great points about kicking the can down the road,  I think this team will be markedly more competitive this season, does that translate into wins ? i don't know, I do think this group will be faster and more skilled than last year now that 10 is not clogging up the works.

 

[OccamsRazor]

2 hours ago, aziz said:

t louis suddenly has a 26 yearold 55pt forward on a not-too-bad contract.

 

 

Doesn't matter he doesn't fit here. I wish him well time to move on.

 

He can't be all that if he has already been traded twice at 26.

 

5th overall or not he has many flaws.

[jammer2]

2 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

When I think of young players making an impact I think Jake Guentzel from the Pens, that guy has "it", he's always around the puck, he knows what to do with it when it's on his tape and he makes plays when they need making. To a lesser extent, Connor Sheary is a similar player.

When did we ever write these things about Schenn in his 5 years or whatever with the team?  

 

 Well....never. He never took over a regular season game. Guentzel, younger has taken over Conference Final games, when it mattered the most. Guentz is 10 times the player Schenn is, not even in the same ballpark...agreed.

 

 As far as Schenn's goal totals go....sometimes it's not the goal, but when it comes. An even strength goal late in the third to win or tie a game is way more important and relevant than a PP goal, giving the team a 2 or 3 goal insurance kinda thing.

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, jammer2 said:

 

 Well....never. He never took over a regular season game. Guentzel, younger has taken over Conference Final games, when it mattered the most. Guentz is 10 times the player Schenn is, not even in the same ballpark...agreed.

 

 As far as Schenn's goal totals go....sometimes it's not the goal, but when it comes. An even strength goal late in the third to win or tie a game is way more important and relevant than a PP goal, giving the team a 2 or 3 goal insurance kinda thing.

There was a stretch there where he had a handful of pretty big goals. I forget the circumstance or even when, exactly. I want to say January or something. (lol it may actually have been last season, the memory is that vague).  The only  thing I remember is, "maybe he's finally figuring this out."  But then he went back to nothing and in the way. 

 

I'll give him this, though:  he got the Crips past the Catamounts in the quarter finals. It's really all that matters. 

[jammer2]

18 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

There was a stretch there where he had a handful of pretty big goals. I forget the circumstance or even when, exactly. I want to say January or something. (lol it may actually have been last season, the memory is that vague).  The only  thing I remember is, "maybe he's finally figuring this out."  But then he went back to nothing and in the way. 

 

I'll give him this, though:  he got the Crips past the Catamounts in the semi  finals. It's really all that matters. 

 

I would not be shocked to see Simmonds get a 10pt uptick in production with an actual creative and smart player on his line.

[pilldoc]

From, many on here who have tremendous respect, ...Bill Meltzer

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-Meltzer/Flyers-2017-Draft-Weekend-First-Night-Wrapup--Analysis/45/86007

 

a take it for what it is worth ....

 

To be certain, it's a bold move. Right now, it seems to be an unpopular move, which is understandable. Most folks think only in terms of instant gratification. The optics of an immediate swap-out of Schenn for Lehterä is that it deletes goal-scoring from a Flyers team already in need of more of it and that the Finn is the less physical player and coming to a club that probably could use a bit more snarl.

 

Lehterä is an above average playmaker with a big frame. Although not especially physical, he knows how to use his 6-foot-2, 212-pound frame and heavy stick. He has never been much of a goal scorer but can set up teammates effectively with clever passes.

For the analytics minded, he has typically been solid in puck possession metrics at 5-on-5 (helped by starting nearly 60 percent of his even strength shifts in the offensive zone) and is an above average two-way player by the current day definition. He typically has outstanding credited takeaway vs. charged giveaway ratios and has won slightly more than half (50.3 percent) of the draws he's taken to date in his NHL career.

Basically, Lehterä is a fine role player who is coming off a bad production year offensively. At age 29, he has two seasons to go on a contract that carries a $4.7 million cap hit. Schenn, who had a somewhat arduous contract negotiation (but averted arbitration) as a restricted free agent last summer, has three years to go on a deal with a $5.125 million cap hit.

 

ON FROST:

Frost largely flew under the scouting radar this season as a likely first-round pick. However, former Montreal Canadiens' scout Grant McCagg's Recrutes publication ranked Frost 21st overall and as one of the top six playmakers of the draft class. McKeen's Hockey ranked Frost as the draft class's second-fastest skater while placing him 41st overall. Bob McKenzie had Frost slightly outside the first round but within the first six picks of the second round.

[aziz]

3 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

i don't know, I do think this group will be faster and more skilled than last year now that 10 is not clogging up the works.

 

i'll be interested to see.  from what i remember, schenn is a pretty legitimate top 6 forward, his decided shortcomings notwithstanding.  they didn't replace him with a legitimate top 6 forward, but they did replace him with someone that will require a roster spot.  i don't know how you get to "more skilled" when you literally have less skill on the roster.  was he really that bad last season?  i mean, he scored 55 points, he was replaced by 22.  was he destructive enough for 22 to be better than 55?

[mojo1917]

@aziz

 

The trade wasn't Schenn for the middling Fin.

Schenn will be replaced in the top 6 by a faster more tenacious player to be determined in camp.

I think Lindblom has more skill and skates better, same with Patrick, if he makes the team, Koneckny, hell I'd rather see someone like Weal who can at least find space for himself and has quick enough hands to pot some goals.

I don't think his 55 points will be difficult to make up when spread over the top two lines without him.

 

Lehtera won't crack our top 6.

 

it's good to see you posting again

 

 

 

[hf101]

18 minutes ago, aziz said:

 

i'll be interested to see.  from what i remember, schenn is a pretty legitimate top 6 forward, his decided shortcomings notwithstanding.  they didn't replace him with a legitimate top 6 forward, but they did replace him with someone that will require a roster spot.  i don't know how you get to "more skilled" when you literally have less skill on the roster.  was he really that bad last season?  i mean, he scored 55 points, he was replaced by 22.  was he destructive enough for 22 to be better than 55?

 

 I wouldn't say Lehtera replaces Schenn by any means.  If anything he replaces Bellemare as a 4th line center.

 

We are more skilled by having Konecny and Lindberg having top 6 wing and PP minutes.  Weal ( if the Flyers resign) also put up some solid points)  If Nolan Patrick makes the team... more skill.  In addition, there will be more talent and speed on the backend next season -- I'm not seeing a loss of 55 points but instead a more balanced team with skill and speed.

 

btw, welcome back   

[vis]

.

[mojo1917]

@vis

 

oh dear, I hope that wasn't a lot of typing and awesome thought that showed up as a "."

 

[ruxpin]

20 minutes ago, vis said:

.

That was exhausting. Could you try to keep your posts just a little shorter?

[aziz]

20 minutes ago, hf101 said:

 I wouldn't say Lehtera replaces Schenn by any means.  If anything he replaces Bellemare as a 4th line center.

 

We are more skilled by having Konecny and Lindberg having top 6 wing and PP minutes.  Weal ( if the Flyers resign) also put up some solid points)  If Nolan Patrick makes the team... more skill.  In addition, there will be more talent and speed on the backend next season -- I'm not seeing a loss of 55 points but instead a more balanced team with skill and speed.

 

except he specifically does replace schenn.  schenn out, lehtera in.  that's the roster change.  now, if lehtera doesn't take schenn's former spot in the line up, fine, but there are no new holes for youth opened here.  a contact demanding ice time left, a contract demanding ice time came back.  just a reduction in production.  if you see lehtera on the 4th line, ok, but schenn would score more on that 4th line.  and be available for the PP.  

 

it seems like your rational is that the win for the flyers was getting a guy obviously worse, so it would be easier to move him down on the depth chart.   which....???  literally, the concept is that the flyers are better off with a less talented and valuable player, because it will leave a better taste giving that less skilled guy less ice time.  and call it a net win.  that's....a weird way to manage assests.  

 

and:  thank you.  

[vis]

8 hours ago, ruxpin said:

I just don't think keeping Schenn actually moves UP the 3 year window.   I don't think Schenn, who didn't really have a home anywhere, alters the time frame positively or negatively at all.   So, while I completely get the frustration with the continued 3-5 year talk, I:  1) Don't buy that it's longer than 3, which is only 1 more than originally advertised and 2)Don't think this trade affects it negatively in any way so don't find it really relevant.

You don't think the Flyers would be more competitive over the next three years with Schenn than without him?  And you don't think he would be a help in opening the window earlier?  The two picks and Lehtera aren't factors whatsoever in accelerating that time line.  At least there's a possibility with Schenn that he could aid in the effort.  Hell, the two picks - both late first rounders at the end of the day - may never even step on the ice for the Flyers, let alone score 25G in back to back seasons at 24 and 25 years old.

 

Let's say you decide that Schenn isn't in the long term plans for the Flyers.  There wasn't a player/package available that could help the team today?  A late first round pick was the only thing you could get?  (Again, my POV is that the other first rounder was compensation for taking Lehtera's contract.)  There was no way to improve the current roster?  Or was there just no thought of doing so?

 

Again, this is not a defense of Schenn.  Just criticizing the organization's lack of progress in three years and deference to the future, if it ever arrives.

 

Finally, it's only 1 year more than the original timeline if you assume the worst case scenario in the original timeline and the best case scenario in the current.  

 

[vis]

3 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

That was exhausting. Could you try to keep your posts just a little shorter?

Lol.  I totally screwed up my original post...

[vis]

23 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

@vis

 

oh dear, I hope that wasn't a lot of typing and awesome thought that showed up as a "."

 

there was a lot of typing, but don't think it contained any awesome.  i tried changing some things and messing around with the quotes and accidentally posted a trainwreck so I nuked it and started over.  i should go to bed...

[vis]

9 hours ago, ruxpin said:

YMMV (I've twice stolen this from rad in this thread.  Sue me).

You rang?

[vis]

Also, I meant to add, but I know that Schenn's points came primarily from the PP.  But that's the case with Giroux and Voracek as well.  I've said a few times now: I think there is a systemic issue here.  It's midboggling* how bad the entire team is 5v5.  So, I'm not sure it's just Schenn.

[ruxpin]

3 minutes ago, vis said:

You don't think the Flyers would be more competitive over the next three years with Schenn than without him?  And you don't think he would be a help in opening the window earlier?  The two picks and Lehtera aren't factors whatsoever in accelerating that time line.  At least there's a possibility with Schenn that he could aid in the effort.  Hell, the two picks - both late first rounders at the end of the day - may never even step on the ice for the Flyers, let alone score 25G in back to back seasons at 24 and 25 years old.

 

Let's say you decide that Schenn isn't in the long term plans for the Flyers.  There wasn't a player/package available that could help the team today?  A late first round pick was the only thing you could get?  (Again, my POV is that the other first rounder was compensation for taking Lehtera's contract.)  There was no way to improve the current roster?  Or was there just no thought of doing so?

 

Again, this is not a defense of Schenn.  Just criticizing the organization's lack of progress in three years and deference to the future, if it ever arrives.

 

Finally, it's only 1 year more than the original timeline if you assume the worst case scenario in the original timeline and the best case scenario in the current.  

 

Well, the last paragraph is certainly true. 

 

The two bolded questions. 

1) No, I don't think the Flyers would be more competitive with Schenn. Quite the opposite. I think he's a lineup killer. I think they're more competitive without him. 

2)No ,I really don't. For the reason in the answer to question 1.

 

The comparison just occurred to me and I haven't thought through it completely, but if you've followed the Phillies for awhile, think Bobby Abreu. At the moment I like the reference for what I'm trying to get across. 

[Philly29]

12 minutes ago, aziz said:

except he specifically does replace schenn.  schenn out, lehtera in.  that's the roster change.

How do you know that for certain? Why can't Lindblom or Konecny replace Schenn? Maybe Schenn being gone creates better chemistry between the lines. Lets face it he never made any of his line mates better, he was a square peg in a round hole on this team.