Russo takes

[Jimtown guy]

 

From Russo's story. Yikes.
 

• Zach Parise has one goal and has taken three shots in three games and is minus-5. He didn’t score for a ninth consecutive game in Winnipeg.
• Eric Staal has no points, has taken three shots and is minus-7.
• Mats Zuccarello has no points, is minus-5, has taken two shots, has taken the first penalty in each game before the first TV timeout and in his own words has indeed been “terrible.”
• Jared Spurgeon, who had an absolutely nightmarish game and finished minus-4, has no points and is minus-8 this season.
• Kevin Fiala has no points, and despite looking pretty on a number of offensive-zone possessions Thursday, turned the puck over nine different times.
• Greenway has no points. Kunin has no points. Ryan Donato has no points. Joel Eriksson Ek has no points.

[IllaZilla]

Saw that. 

 

I guess the way I look at it is that this team was at best going to be a playoff bubble team if everything goes right. If they get hit with injuries or get into a prolonged slump, they may miss the Playoffs. 

 

This is team has always been streaky. They’ll lose four or five in a row and then all of a sudden rip off six wins in a row. 

 

But it I do think the chickens are coming home to roost. The team built around Koivu, Parise and Suter and then failed to draft and develop any young scorers, preferring to draft “safe” players. 

[lynxrattle]

Yikes indeed! 

[Hockey-78]

"The Core."

 

I predicted before the season they'd be bottom of the pile and... well, they are.

 

Replacements for Granny:

Fiala - 0 points, -3

Zuccarello - 0 points, -5

Granny - 3 points, +1

 

Since they can't trade any of the "The Core" they will make another desperate move and trade Zucker and dig an even bigger hole and still be a bottom feeder. What a mess...

 

This will be a long rebuild

 

 

[Jimtown guy]

1 hour ago, IllaZilla said:

Saw that. 

 

I guess the way I look at it is that this team was at best going to be a playoff bubble team if everything goes right. If they get hit with injuries or get into a prolonged slump, they may miss the Playoffs. 

 

This is team has always been streaky. They’ll lose four or five in a row and then all of a sudden rip off six wins in a row. 

 

But it I do think the chickens are coming home to roost. The team built around Koivu, Parise and Suter and then failed to draft and develop any young scorers, preferring to draft “safe” players. 

This team isn’t making the playoffs. I’ll be happy to eat crow if they do but that isn’t happening. This could be the worse team in Wild history 

[IllaZilla]

2 hours ago, Jimtown guy said:

This team isn’t making the playoffs. I’ll be happy to eat crow if they do but that isn’t happening. This could be the worse team in Wild history 

 

I don't know. Some of those early wild teams were pretty bad. I know, I sat through some pretty bad games... 

[yave1964]

How long until Bruce gets gassed?  I mean, you cant fire 23 players

Edited October 11, 2019 by yave1964

[Jimtown guy]

50 minutes ago, IllaZilla said:

 

I don't know. Some of those early wild teams were pretty bad. I know, I sat through some pretty bad games... 

true but they get a pass somewhat since they just entered the league. 

[IllaZilla]

4 hours ago, yave1964 said:

How long until Bruce gets gassed?  I mean, you cant fire 23 players

If they continue to lose, he may not last October.  But they have a ready made replacement in Zach Parise, because he seems to know everything...kind of a player/coach, like Reggie Dunlop...

[lynxrattle]

I hope they won't offer BB as a scapegoat. Show some respect to him. Still, if it starts to look like the fans are not buying tickets and merchandise, it's likely BB will be fired to buy some time. 

[IllaZilla]

5 hours ago, lynxrattle said:

I hope they won't offer BB as a scapegoat. Show some respect to him. Still, if it starts to look like the fans are not buying tickets and merchandise, it's likely BB will be fired to buy some time. 

It’s like @yave1964said, you can’t fire 23 players, so someone needs to go. That would be Boudreau, the only 30+something without a NTC. 

If Donato turns in another poor performance, I can see them sending him to Iowa. He’s got a couple of games left before he needs waivers. That might shake up some of the younger guys, but nothing is going to shake up the older guys. I doubt even if Boudreau benched one of them it would have any effect. They got their money and they know they aren’t going anywhere. 

And you are correct, the only thing that fans can really do to show their displeasure is to stop buying stuff. Bitching on this board or the team Twitter account is meaningless if they continue to purchase season tickets and jerseys. 

[EmptyShelf]

If Koivu continues to lead the forwards in TOI (and Parise and Suter are top at their positions), this team will not only NOT make the playoffs, but will be drafting in the Top 5.  I wouldn't mind a high pick, but this is not a year that is as deep as some in the past.  I would look for creative ways to package any 30 something VET out by mid next month.  I would take draft picks, 3rd and 4th liners, anything to create some team flexibility.  The arena will be empty by T-Giving anyways, unless they show some 'will to win and Team First,' which I have never seen from this 'core.'

[CreaseAndAssist]

On 10/12/2019 at 6:46 AM, IllaZilla said:

It’s like @yave1964said, you can’t fire 23 players, so someone needs to go. That would be Boudreau, the only 30+something without a NTC. 

If Donato turns in another poor performance, I can see them sending him to Iowa. He’s got a couple of games left before he needs waivers. That might shake up some of the younger guys, but nothing is going to shake up the older guys. I doubt even if Boudreau benched one of them it would have any effect. They got their money and they know they aren’t going anywhere. 

And you are correct, the only thing that fans can really do to show their displeasure is to stop buying stuff. Bitching on this board or the team Twitter account is meaningless if they continue to purchase season tickets and jerseys. 

 

We used to state the 'boycott' point all of the time to the disenchanted fans.  And I think its 100% correct and the one thing that will make this club take notice.  As long as its 'We the sheeple' they'll continue to let everything continue as painful as it appears to be.  

 

I agree with @IllaZilla as this is the chickens coming home to roost.  As another friend of mine said on Twitter yesterday in the wake of their loss to Pittsburgh.  This is just the beginning of the schitt show.  Its only going to get worse.  I even think Bill Guerin knows and realizes this.  He may have hoped the team would suddenly pick itself up and find a different level once the regular season started after a mostly ugly pre-season...but he's come to realized this is a horrendous team with terrible locked in cement contracts.  

 

I don't think it matters one bit if they replace Boudreau.  It might what...spark a few players to try harder for a few games and then it'd be back to being crap.  

 

If you need someone to hate Wild fans...hate Paul Fenton.  His moves were not just bad, they were devastating both short term and long term.  He had to be very careful with the limited assets the team could move and instead he frittered them away for garbage in return and then panicked and signed and cemented some old guys to the team's growing collection of fossils.  

[Confrontational]

Just a little tweak is needed...  

 

As mentioned over the past decade or more by Rott: It's In The Water

 

Fire BB - fire any one person or trade any player - it's not going to change the overall determination of this team... They're mentally weak - and we've all known this for a very long time...

[IllaZilla]

Dom Luszczyszyn has a very nice daily prediction article in the Athletic for the NHL standings. As of right now, he’s predicting the Wild to finish in sixth place in the Central with a record of 38-34-9 with 86 points and around a 30% chance to make the Playoffs. It’ll be interesting to see how on/off this model is. 

[CreaseAndAssist]

2 hours ago, IllaZilla said:

Dom Luszczyszyn has a very nice daily prediction article in the Athletic for the NHL standings. As of right now, he’s predicting the Wild to finish in sixth place in the Central with a record of 38-34-9 with 86 points and around a 30% chance to make the Playoffs. It’ll be interesting to see how on/off this model is. 

 

I will be surprised if we end up with over 80 points this season.  

[ClusterChuck]

6 hours ago, IllaZilla said:

Dom Luszczyszyn has a very nice daily prediction article in the Athletic for the NHL standings. As of right now, he’s predicting the Wild to finish in sixth place in the Central with a record of 38-34-9 with 86 points and around a 30% chance to make the Playoffs. It’ll be interesting to see how on/off this model is. 

It's hard to believe they'll have more wins than losses excluding the OT losses at this point.

 

[IllaZilla]

4 hours ago, ClusterChuck said:

It's hard to believe they'll have more wins than losses excluding the OT losses at this point.

 

Granted the model is based on a very small sample size. 
Once there are more games played, I think things will even out.
I just thought it was interesting that GMBG said this was a “pretty good team” and as of right now, they are looking at potentially sixth place In the division and a 30% shot at making the Playoffs. 

[CreaseAndAssist]

1 hour ago, IllaZilla said:

Granted the model is based on a very small sample size. 
Once there are more games played, I think things will even out.
I just thought it was interesting that GMBG said this was a “pretty good team” and as of right now, they are looking at potentially sixth place In the division and a 30% shot at making the Playoffs. 

 

Yet Bill Guerin is smart enough he has to sell hope to keep people buying tickets.  If he said..we're hopeless.  He'd be fired immediately even if he was being honest.  

[Hockey-78]

How many Wild games Dom Luszczyszyn has seen? He seems to have made his predictions based on names on the paper. Staal, Parise, even Koivu were dynamite 10 years ago. Now after 5 games:

 

Staal   0 G 1 A -8

Parise 2 G 0 A -6 (and the other goal happened when he lost the puck)

Koivu  0 G 2 A -1 (lumbering out there against the Sens the whole game)

 

And the thee best D-men:

Spurgeon 1 G 2 A -7

Dumba     1 G 1 A -6

Suter        1 G 2 A -4

 

And these guys also munch most of the PP time...

 

This equation isn't a route for success. Someone needs to wake up...fast.

 

[IllaZilla]

42 minutes ago, Hockey-78 said:

How many Wild games Dom Luszczyszyn has seen? He seems to have made his predictions based on names on the paper. Staal, Parise, even Koivu were dynamite 10 years ago. Now after 5 games:

 

I don't know how many Wild games he's seen. I'd say probably not many, because he looking at the league as a whole.

 

But I'm guessing the statistical model is based on past performance coupled with future regressions. It's like those hurricane models. You enter enough data into it and over time, you will get a projected pathway.

 

And this model is a daily model. So things may change daily, depending what other teams in the league are doing. So right now, after four games, the model has them in 6th place and a 30% chance of making the Playoffs.

 

I'm just looking at this as a fun exercise in prediction. The owner and GM are saying this is a good team. Will the numbers bear that out?

[IllaZilla]

4 hours ago, CreaseAndAssist said:

 

Yet Bill Guerin is smart enough he has to sell hope to keep people buying tickets.  If he said..we're hopeless.  He'd be fired immediately even if he was being honest.  

 

Yeah, but I'm guessing if the team continues in it's futility, he will have to make that call. I mean look at last season. The team went from "a few tweaks to get a Stanley Cup" at the beginning to "sell what you can" at the trade deadline.

[Lonkkis]

2 hours ago, Hockey-78 said:

How many Wild games Dom Luszczyszyn has seen? He seems to have made his predictions based on names on the paper. Staal, Parise, even Koivu were dynamite 10 years ago. Now after 5 games:

 

Staal   0 G 1 A -8

Parise 2 G 0 A -6 (and the other goal happened when he lost the puck)

Koivu  0 G 2 A -1 (lumbering out there against the Sens the whole game)

 

And the thee best D-men:

Spurgeon 1 G 2 A -7

Dumba     1 G 1 A -6

Suter        1 G 2 A -4

 

And these guys also munch most of the PP time...

 

This equation isn't a route for success. Someone needs to wake up...fast.

 

 

If you have a sub for The Athletic, have a read: https://theathletic.com/1019070/2019/06/14/improving-our-nhl-projection-model-ahead-of-the-2019-20-season/

 

A  quote if you don't: 

 

Quote

It uses data from each player’s last three seasons, with each component weighted by recency and regressed to the mean individually. That means that the weight for each prior season is different for goals than it is for shots or blocks (and different for forwards and defencemen), as is the regression factor.

 

 

Granted, it's mostly for individual players, but I'm guessing he adapts those projections for team projections.

Edited October 15, 2019 by Lonkkis

[Hockey-78]

3 hours ago, IllaZilla said:

I don't know how many Wild games he's seen. I'd say probably not many, because he looking at the league as a whole.

 

But I'm guessing the statistical model is based on past performance coupled with future regressions. It's like those hurricane models. You enter enough data into it and over time, you will get a projected pathway.

 

And this model is a daily model. So things may change daily, depending what other teams in the league are doing. So right now, after four games, the model has them in 6th place and a 30% chance of making the Playoffs.

 

I'm just looking at this as a fun exercise in prediction. The owner and GM are saying this is a good team. Will the numbers bear that out?

Every statistical model I've been introduced to has its pros and cons and this makes no exception, I suppose. Models usually(?) work better without human element involved. Like predicting those hurricanes you mentioned.

 

Pretty strange model though when it had the Wild in 6th place after 4 straight losses. What kind of losing streak it would've required to have the Wild in the last place? (rhetorical question)

 

But I agree, when all is said and especially done, where will this team end up?

[CreaseAndAssist]

3 hours ago, IllaZilla said:

I don't know how many Wild games he's seen. I'd say probably not many, because he looking at the league as a whole.

 

But I'm guessing the statistical model is based on past performance coupled with future regressions. It's like those hurricane models. You enter enough data into it and over time, you will get a projected pathway.

 

And this model is a daily model. So things may change daily, depending what other teams in the league are doing. So right now, after four games, the model has them in 6th place and a 30% chance of making the Playoffs.

 

I'm just looking at this as a fun exercise in prediction. The owner and GM are saying this is a good team. Will the numbers bear that out?

 

I know Russo thinks this Luczyzcyn kid is one of the smartest people he's ever met.  He might be.  But a lot of people who are all in on the analytics and modeling way to track sports; they don't watch games.  Why?  The model tells them what they feel they need to know.  If you're writing about all of the NHL's teams right now, why would you want to spend much time on the Minnesota Wild?  I can't see why.  Morbid curiosity?