2015-16 Flyers Reality.

[FD19372]

Thank you!

 

I agree whole heartedly.  I am really starting to despise the simplistic tossing of the arms in the air, "This team has no talent!" lamentation.

 

It's just not accurate.  This team was confused and misguided and skating without a map last year and much of the year before.

 

If just about every player (except 3 or 4 maybe) on a team looks progressively worse over time on that team, then there's something going on that isn't a lack of talent.

 

Jake, G and Mason and Maybe MDZ are the only guys who have managed to look better for their time here.  And Mason I'm not so sure about because of the injuries and MDZ, we really need to see if it's sticking.

 

If the REST OF THE TEAM all look worse two or three years after their arrival in town, we have to look at something besides their personal "lack of talent." 

 

To me watching this team, it was grotesquely apparent game in and game out that they were just extremely poorly coached.  It was very difficult to glean anything else from their play. 

They have talent, for God sake. Jake and G have been in top 10 in scoring. We have a great young goalie in Mason, and at least 2 extremely promising dmen coming up sooner than later (or so I hope). They just don't have any decent quality depth as in secondary scoring although they might have a little more now than last season.

[radoran]

It won't be hard to replace Coburn's -12 in 13 straight games...like last year and only MDZ got benched...

So you're saying they've got other players to go -12 in 13 straight games?

He was played a lot in situations where someone with his experience will be missed.

I'm not upset they've moved on, but they need someone else to fill those minutes and that, right now, is an unknown.

[OccamsRazor]

So you're saying they've got other players to go -12 in 13 straight games?

He was played a lot in situations where someone with his experience will be missed.

I'm not upset they've moved on, but they need someone else to fill those minutes and that, right now, is an unknown.

Of course they still have Mcdud.....

[jammer2]

  The Flyers should be 8-10 pts better simply by adding Neuvirth over Emery. They need some shoot specialists to get some more 2nd pts in the shoot out after the OT period ends.

 

 Unfortunately, Sam Gagner used to be good on shoot outs early in his career, but has STUNK of late, so bad in fact, he made the top 10 list of worst shoot out options....he came in at #10 after going a putrid 3-20 in the last few years.....you guys will get a kick out of who is listed as #1 on this stinky list....yep, no other than ol' frosty tips himself...

 

 http://oilersnation.com/2011/10/14/the-10-worst-shootout-options-in-the-nhl

[OccamsRazor]

The Flyers should be 8-10 pts better simply by adding Neuvirth over Emery.

 

I agree if not more. Speaking of Neuvirth here is a shot of his helmet.

 

 

A nice one of Rocky...good choice. This is the best backup they have had in awhile.

 

 

[brelic]

So you're saying they've got other players to go -12 in 13 straight games?

He was played a lot in situations where someone with his experience will be missed.

I'm not upset they've moved on, but they need someone else to fill those minutes and that, right now, is an unknown.

 

Just looking up some stats to see how the Flyers did post-Coburn.

 

They were 27-25-12 before he was traded (but he missed a bunch of games and I recall some winning streaks while he was out) and then ominously went 6-6-6 post-deadline which further cements our future as the undead of the league.

 

Over that 6-6-6 stretch, we gave up 47 goals in 18 games (2.61 GAA).

 

Up to that point, we had a 2.75 GAA (176 GA in 64 games).

 

PK - 80% after Coburn was gone

PK - 76% when Coburn was here

 

I remember calculating PK rates for when Coburn was in the lineup and when he was injured... too lazy to hunt it down, but I remember the PK being worse when Coburn was in the lineup. I am not claiming causation, but correlation.

 

How much any of the above actually has to do with Coburn, I don't know. But if the PK was better without him, and our GA were lower without him, it might not be as big a loss as we believed.

[radoran]

Just looking up some stats to see how the Flyers did post-Coburn.

 

They were 27-25-12 before he was traded (but he missed a bunch of games and I recall some winning streaks while he was out) and then ominously went 6-6-6 post-deadline which further cements our future as the undead of the league.

 

Over that 6-6-6 stretch, we gave up 47 goals in 18 games (2.61 GAA).

 

Up to that point, we had a 2.75 GAA (176 GA in 64 games).

 

PK - 80% after Coburn was gone

PK - 76% when Coburn was here

 

I remember calculating PK rates for when Coburn was in the lineup and when he was injured... too lazy to hunt it down, but I remember the PK being worse when Coburn was in the lineup. I am not claiming causation, but correlation.

 

How much any of the above actually has to do with Coburn, I don't know. But if the PK was better without him, and our GA were lower without him, it might not be as big a loss as we believed.

So, you're saying we won the trade?

Really should get a "trades won" banner up at the Big Bank Building.

[LegionOfDoom]

At this point in time, I really think we need to take it game by game. We have a new coach/system and some new players with returning experienced players.

What will be the order of business for our first team we play against, what strategy do we really need to focus on to win. What line combos you think will get the job done?

[radoran]

@LegionOfDoom I think the two huge unanswered questions are VLC and Umburglar. If they are even margi ally effective it can have a great impact on the roster.

If they're not, they are anchors on the season.

I expect Hakstol will be able to be an effective coach implementing systems, but whether the players they have can play it is another question entirely and for me it starts with those two.

Then can Gagner be a first line LW for them and make the VeeGees more effective at even strength? Can the defense improve on last year? Can Mason maintain his level of play (I am in NO way saying "he can't")? Will they get effective secondary scoring (and I don't mean garbage goals and empty netters padding stats)?

This team needs to execute, pure and simple.

[brelic]

I think the two huge unanswered questions are VLC and Umburglar. If they are even margi ally effective it can have a great impact on the roster.

 

One or both could be healthy scratches too, right?

 

The bottom six could easily be something like:

 

Raffl or Gagner/Laughton/Read

White/VandeVelde/Bellemare or one of the anchors

[radoran]

One or both could be healthy scratches too, right?

 

The bottom six could easily be something like:

 

Raffl or Gagner/Laughton/Read

White/VandeVelde/Bellemare or one of the anchors

 

Sure, they could - but that doesn't really "help" the team. The fourth line is still a collection of fourth liners and Laughton is still an unproven commodity. And then you're also looking to Raffl to be as effective with a rookie center as he's been with Claude Giroux and hoping for a resurgence from Read, again, with a rookie center. Neither option thrills me. YMMV

 

Then there's the matter of also expecting the Raffl/Gagner-Laughton-Read line to be your "shutdown" line. I don't know about you, but I just shuddered typing that.

 

And then there is the matter of using 13% of the cap on healthy scratches - with both signed next season.

 

Lots of questions.

 

Again, if VLC and/or Umburglar can actually be a contributing factor I think the outcome is better.

 

Not that I really expect it, but as always, I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than horribly disappointed...

[brelic]

The fourth line is still a collection of fourth liners and Laughton is still an unproven commodity.

 

I think that fourth line would be one of the best we've had in years. White by himself, in my mind, is good enough to be anywhere in the bottom six.

 

Completely agree that Laughton is still unproven. How else can he prove himself unless he gets a stable role and minutes? That's how our prospects become realized players. If this is a building year, I think that is the perfect time to have someone like Laughton, Cousins, Leier, AK47, Martel, or whomever given a real shot to make an impact. For a long time the Flyers have been overly sheltering their prospects on the farm - it's like a Chinese wall between the two teams. Of course, we also had crappy prospects, so there's that

 

Then there's the matter of also expecting the Raffl/Gagner-Laughton-Read line to be your "shutdown" line. I don't know about you, but I just shuddered typing that.

 

You know what? It doesn't sound that bad to me. Learning curve, sure. I am sure the Coots will still shoulder the majority of the most difficult assignments. There is a balance to be found.

 

Lots of questions.

 

Absolutely. And as of right now, no answers.

[brelic]

Just saw this picture from Meltzer's article. It's from an NHL prospects' camp in Toronto this week.

 

Wow, Morin looks like an NHLer that could plow all those little punks into next week.

 

[radoran]

How else can he prove himself unless he gets a stable role and minutes? That's how our prospects become realized players. If this is a building year, I think that is the perfect time to have someone like Laughton, Cousins, Leier, AK47, Martel, or whomever given a real shot to make an impact.

 

The problem is that the Flyers have just over a million in cap space (once Porter and Manning are sent down). You get to give one of those players "a shot to make an impact" and you've still got 13% of the cap wrapped up in VLC/Umburglar next year. Yes, of course there can be buyouts/trades/whatever. And you have precious little wiggle room beyond that.

 

To be clear, I like the fourth line. But it's a fourth line. Let's not go crazy here.

 

Getting back to the jump-off point of our conversation - if either VLC or Umburglar or both make an actual impact in a secondary scoring role, it would be better for the team than whatever that fourth line does or whatever development that list of mostly B/C-level prospects gives them.

[brelic]

Here's an Eklund video podcast with guests talking about the Flyers and a lot of what we have covered in the thread. If anything, it's something to listen to while you work.

 

 

Starts around the 13:00.

[OccamsRazor]

At this point in time, I really think we need to take it game by game.

 

That is my intentions. I will just enjoy watching some meaningful hockey. I really have no preconceived expectations...i won't speak for anyone else.

 

I just want to watch this group grow under what i think is a great structured coach with a plan to build towards the ultimate goal a Cup....that in itself is just great to see....backed by a GM with a vision to build through the draft and slowly implement young homegrown talent when it is ready.

 

I don't expect a Cup this year just reaching the playoffs will be seen by me as a slow incremental showcase of this teams growth...it will be a uphill battle and will only give them the much needed experience to eventually get to the goal.

 

One step at a time. They have a lot of great pieces in place and will slowly grow to Hakstol's  ideal Cup contender in time.

 

GO FLYERS!!!!

[OccamsRazor]

I seen this in the article from Bill today on hockeybuzz....

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-Meltzer/Meltzers-Musings-Training-Camp-Hextall-Tryout-Players-Prospects--More/45/70751

"Declining to name any names, Hextall said that he has "feelers out" to several unsigned NHL veterans about potentially coming to camp with the Flyers on a tryout basis. Tomorrow's blog will look more in-depth about possible candidates.

Some of the players out there who may be of some interest to the Flyers include forwards Jiri Tlusty, Sean Bergenheim, Brad Boyes and Curtis Glencross. With a current logjam of bodies on the blueline, it seems less likely the team would invite an unsigned defenseman."

I would certainly be interested in bringing in Czech Jiri Tlusty a LW for a look on G and Jake's line. He would be worth a PTO contract for sure.

[flyercanuck]

@OccamsRazor

 

Here's todays Meltzers......

 

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=70770

[OccamsRazor]

@OccamsRazor

 

Here's todays Meltzers......

 

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=70770

 

 

Why he might be a tryout fit in Philadelphia: Apart from hailing from the same home town and being a former teammate of Jakub Voracek at various levels of the HC Rytiri Kladno development chain, Tlusty has a two-way skill set. He's been an inconsistent performer during most of his career, but can play in various spots around the top nine and be a supplementary penalty killer as well as a second-unit power play candidate. He's not going to bring physicality but the 6-foot, 209-pound forward can be tough to take off the puck. Tlusty is versatile enough to play any forward position but is primarily a winger. If nothing else, he could provide some ice time competition for incumbents such as Matt Read or R.J. Umberger.

 

Didn't know the bolded part....even better.

[Podein25]

Why he might be a tryout fit in Philadelphia: Apart from hailing from the same home town and being a former teammate of Jakub Voracek at various levels of the HC Rytiri Kladno development chain, Tlusty has a two-way skill set. He's been an inconsistent performer during most of his career, but can play in various spots around the top nine and be a supplementary penalty killer as well as a second-unit power play candidate. He's not going to bring physicality but the 6-foot, 209-pound forward can be tough to take off the puck. Tlusty is versatile enough to play any forward position but is primarily a winger. If nothing else, he could provide some ice time competition for incumbents such as Matt Read or R.J. Umberger.

Didn't know the bolded part....even better.

Based on their play in Winnipeg when they knew they were essentially auditioning for contracts, I'd take Stempniak over Tlusty.

Tlusty just seems meh to me. He can skate and his positioning is good. He's not a liability. But he's also not very dynamic at all. Plays a very safe game. Has a nice sit I guess. Hardly saw it.

He reminds me of Nodl sorta.

Stempniak at least brings a little jam.

[OccamsRazor]

Tlusty just seems meh to me. He can skate and his positioning is good. He's not a liability. But he's also not very dynamic at all. Plays a very safe game. Has a nice sit I guess. Hardly saw it.

 

Meh to me is Stempniak (who has never even scored 20 before in a season). Tlusty (is also 5 years younger) has scored 23 goals in a season before....Jake's career high.

 

Plus if you are looking for someone who can possibly play on the 1st line with G and Jake Tlusty win this. Not saying he can but he is certainly and better faster skater.

 

Stempniak is suited for a 3rd line role i think. Flyers have plenty of those. I'm ok agreeing to disagree.

[jammer2]

  Personally, I'd like to see one of the younsters step up and knock Raffl right off this team, he has limited upside. I suppose he could be decent if given the time, but I'd rather dicard him for an eye popping kid who can really make a difference. Just my thoughts.

[brelic]

  Personally, I'd like to see one of the younsters step up and knock Raffl right off this team, he has limited upside. I suppose he could be decent if given the time, but I'd rather dicard him for an eye popping kid who can really make a difference. Just my thoughts.

 

Well, Raffl did score 21 even-strength goals. I highly doubt any youngster would score more than that. 

[mojo1917]

Raffl is a nice player to have around IMO. He slots in up and down the line up , he skates faster, has a longer reach, is more competitive  and has a better shot than people expect.  He's been in the league for a couple of years and still produces, so he's not a "surprise" anymore....in the right role he's a keeper.  I don't think he's top line material, but , he's a guy that if he's in your bottom 6 means your team is pretty good.

[OccamsRazor]

Personally, I'd like to see one of the younsters step up and knock Raffl right off this team, he has limited upside.

 

Yes....maybe....but he did score as many even strength (18 ES 2 PP 1 SH) goals as JVR (17ES) this year....

 

@brelic

 

Sorry i didn't read through before posting but exactly what i was thinking...not bad for an undrafted free agent...he is pretty solid and plays a nice 200 foot game like Hakstol wants....he will get even better i think.