being realistic with hextall

[ruxpin]

@ruxpin

Im not sure how the contracts are structured exactly so I dont know what we can move and what we're stuck with. I do know that if you go with my original thought of trading our stars for high prospects, that would clear up some cap space. If giroux, voracek, simmonds, and mason came off the books, would that clear enough to bring up our youngsters?

 

 

sure, depending on what they got back.  a really REALLY risky play, though.  it'll be rough to try to win a cup with the core as 30+ guys, but even rougher to essentially start from scratch and hope you can *find* a core from a pile of really young kids.

 

I'm going to go with @aziz's answer.    

 

I really think we're only next year or the year following away from competing for playoffs.  So I don't trade away Giroux, Voracek or Simmonds willy-nilly.  I think that only sets us further back.  If Buffalo wants to trade us Eichel for one of them, I'd consider it.

[Bakanekimiwa]

oomph.. you are getting roasted here. Well, well... I think you're using some revisionist history here. I don't remember Homer's teams being mentally tough or anything really other than what we're seeing right now. With the exception of the 2010 run, this team has been pretty listless overall. But, mostly because we've had very bad roster/cap management. Homer put most of his eggs into Pronger's basket(btw, don't hear too much from him lately) and when he went down, so did our playoff chances. 

 

SO... now we're just in the 2nd year of Hexy's great reconstruction era and you're having doubts already!? The only questionable move I've seen, thus far, was Umby... but it's not too hard to see the thinking behind it. Hexy has been doing everything in his power to recapture cap space and reverse the bad deals handed out by Homer. 

 

Major problem being... some of these cap snafus from Homer will take many years to be able to recover from. We're on the right course.. it's just gonna take precious time. Who really cares if we don't make the playoffs this year!? It's actually much better if we don't. 

[icehole]

IF the star vets would be traded, it would have to be for 1 or 2 "cant miss" prospects. Im looking for giroux, voracek, simmonds, and mason but all at 20 years old. I wouldnt think of trading those guys at a young age or trading them if ghost, proverov, koneckny, sanheim, an so on were 25. I just dont think 2 different eras of stars will work.

[ruxpin]

i agree with this, i'm concerned about the same thing.  yes, giroux et all are only 27, 28 right now, and will still be in their "prime" if the crop of kids are ready in the next few years...but if the kids take more than 2 more years, the current leaders will be getting to the end of their prime shortly after.  if giroux is 31 when the rest of the team is "ready"...how long will that window stay open?  we'll have a couple years with a finally complete and competitive roster, and then you are looking to replace elite topline production.
 
 ideally, you want your team ready to roll during that span where your marque players are 25-30.  i.e., right now.  too much patience now, too much looking 4-5 years down the line, and you are back to the same situation we had with roenick and forsberg, a 31/32 yearold as the team's centerpiece.  can work, but not an ideal plan.
 
the irony there is for all the talk about not doing things the same way anymore, we'd end up in the same situation we have always had:  comparatively old guys as the focus of the team.

 

Yeah, this is the part where I'm completely with @icehole in his concern.   If it takes more than two years (three might be okay) then the concern magnifies.  And I'll include goaltending in that.  We drafted a couple goalies recently, but I suspect it will be longer than that 2-3 year window for them to be ready.   Maybe you do move some of the core pieces for younger core pieces (as if they grow on trees) next trade deadline (I think if  you do it this year, then next year is a total Buffalo-esque disaster).

[OccamsRazor]

this is to funny....i'm not even going to jump in...it's too fun from afar!!!

 

TRADE EVERYONE FOR PICKS!

 

 

OOOooooppps there goes my turrets again...my bad!

[aziz]

@OccamsRazor

 

[murraycraven]

this is to funny....i'm not even going to jump in...it's too fun from afar!!!

TRADE EVERYONE FOR PICKS!

OOOooooppps there goes my turrets again...my bad!

I am sitting here eating popcorn. Luke watching a train wreck!

[icehole]

Watching from a distance is fine, but if you have an opinion, please share.

My stance is go for it now OR rebuild. This seems like more of a hybrid which may or may not work. If it does work, it wont work for long.

If you trade 4 stars and get 4 potential stars that do live up to potential, you can get 3 cups in 6 years. If they dont pan out, oh well. At least we wont be praising our high money stars for playing "not bad" against tampa bay in game 1.

[brelic]

There's no single way or magic formula to build a Stanley Cup winning team. There are different blueprints.

 

Even if it takes 4-5 years to be a legitimate playoff threat, that is a lot of time to acquire/develop a modified core. G and Jake will be 30, but Couturier and Schenn will be 27-28. Mason will be 30. Guys like Konecny, Aube-Kubel, Lindblom, Leier, Cousins, Laughton, Fazleev will be 23-25. Maybe that forms the new core, and G and Jake are the wily veterans. Sanheim, Provorov, Ghost, Morin, Hagg will all be 23-26. Add to that one or two great picks in that time that might be 20-22 years old. Maybe we get a great 1st round forward, or a Kucherov-type steal. Figure in trades like Streit, Luke Schenn, Del Zotto, and maybe a core forward like Simmonds, and that could turn into a bounty of prospects and picks. 

 

The point is this is a long-term project and everything Hextall has done so far tells me he has a plan and a vision. It is different from everything we've come to expect as Flyers fans, and that's a great thing. I'm willing to give him half a decade to put it in place - which is usually how long experts say is needed before you can truly rate a GM. I'm willing to give Hakstol a few seasons before truly judging him as well. 

 

It just seems a little crazy to be questioning Hakstol after game 2 of his NHL career, and Hextall after one season as GM.

 

In my mind, they are absolutely going in the right direction.

[radoran]

kane and toews never touched the AHL

 

Exactly, @aziz!

 

Kane was also picked first overall. Toews was third.

 

The only top five picks the Flyers have had  since 1990 were JVR and Pitkanen - and became "disappointed" with them for not producing "enough" and dealt them away.

 

But I don't think that guys drafted 24 (Konecny), 17 (Sanheim), 11 (Morin), 41 (Hagg), 78 (Gotstobehere) can be compared "apples to apples" with 1 and 3 overall.

 

Sure, Provorov was 7th overall - which is where the whole "cap space" and "roster space" comes into the equation.

 

And the added factor that defensemen simply take longer to develop and mature in the pros than forwards do - with a few notable exceptions. Exceptions, of course, are not "the rule." Keith is a great example - drafted 54th overall and developed in the AHL before ever setting foot on NHL ice. Yes, no "cup of coffee" or "his nine games" or "first callup" - two full seasons in the AHL before ever setting foot on NHL ice.

 

There is simply no "system" that winds up with all of its players "developing" at the same time. Given the draft, it's virtually impossible to do so.

 

The "realistic" thing here is that the franchise has committed to Giroux/Voracek/Couturier for at least the next six seasons after this one and Simmonds for three more. That's the "core" of your team going forward and that's really unlikely to change significantly barring injury. And it's not "realistic" to expect that all of them are simply going to see their games fall off a cliff in that time period.

 

On the defensive side of the roster, just three guys (Streit, Schultz, del Zotto) are signed for next year and no one longer than that. And, quite frankly, we could see two of them dealt this season (likely Streit and Schultz) if the right deal comes along.

 

That's exactly where your "young defensemen" can come into the picture - not that any team in recent memory has had such an influx of talent on the blue line.

 

And the space created by either buying out or outright trading Umburglar, VLC, Gagner, Luke Schenn coupled with lower salaries from (probably) half of your blue line allows a team to pick up some nice priced veterans to add to the mix.

 

 

Watching from a distance is fine, but if you have an opinion, please share.

My stance is go for it now OR rebuild. This seems like more of a hybrid which may or may not work. If it does work, it wont work for long.

If you trade 4 stars and get 4 potential stars that do live up to potential, you can get 3 cups in 6 years. If they dont pan out, oh well. At least we wont be praising our high money stars for playing "not bad" against tampa bay in game 1.

 

Giroux has a NMC, Simmonds an NTC. Hell, Streit and LSchenn both have NTCs...

 

Moreover, the Flyers did do the "trade stars for value" approach when they "won" the Crater/Richards trades and got the young talent (Voracek, Couturier, Simmonds, BSchenn) that they have now.

 

The idea was that this team would be in a position to win during the Giroux/Voracek next six years and I don't think that it is nonsense to say that that could actually happen.

[OccamsRazor]

Watching from a distance is fine, but if you have an opinion, please share.

My stance is go for it now OR rebuild. This seems like more of a hybrid which may or may not work. If it does work, it wont work for long.

If you trade 4 stars and get 4 potential stars that do live up to potential, you can get 3 cups in 6 years. If they dont pan out, oh well. At least we wont be praising our high money stars for playing "not bad" against tampa bay in game 1.

 

 

It's not a complete rebuild......it's more like a slow retool...patience  Daniel-san......

[icehole]

@radoran

Everything you said makes sense. I expect them to be good in 2 or 3 years. I just think you maximize the potential to go deeper for a longer period of time if everyone is reaches their peak at the same time.

A little off topic, but the thing that bothers me the most is that nobody seems to be too upset with the losses. "Eh, they'll be good in a few years." or "I didnt expect too much from this team anyway". Well, I do expect a lot from this team. We all know what Giroux is, Voracek busted out last season, Simmonds is a top power forward, Mason save % is high and we all hear that the flyers finally got their guy in net, coots is a great defensive forward who is just going to break out offensively any second now, B Schenn was the top NHL prospect just a few years ago, and they got a high attack style coach...so why cant I expect playoffs? Why cant I be pissed if they dont beat Tampa when they get 2 penalty shots, one being in OT? If I cant expect them to win, whats the point?

[Bakanekimiwa]

Exactly, @aziz!

 

Kane was also picked first overall. Toews was third.

 

The only top five picks the Flyers have had  since 1990 were JVR and Pitkanen - and became "disappointed" with them for not producing "enough" and dealt them away.

 

But I don't think that guys drafted 24 (Konecny), 17 (Sanheim), 11 (Morin), 41 (Hagg), 78 (Gotstobehere) can be compared "apples to apples" with 1 and 3 overall.

 

Sure, Provorov was 7th overall - which is where the whole "cap space" and "roster space" comes into the equation.

 

And the added factor that defensemen simply take longer to develop and mature in the pros than forwards do - with a few notable exceptions. Exceptions, of course, are not "the rule." Keith is a great example - drafted 54th overall and developed in the AHL before ever setting foot on NHL ice. Yes, no "cup of coffee" or "his nine games" or "first callup" - two full seasons in the AHL before ever setting foot on NHL ice.

 

There is simply no "system" that winds up with all of its players "developing" at the same time. Given the draft, it's virtually impossible to do so.

 

The "realistic" thing here is that the franchise has committed to Giroux/Voracek/Couturier for at least the next six seasons after this one and Simmonds for three more. That's the "core" of your team going forward and that's really unlikely to change significantly barring injury. And it's not "realistic" to expect that all of them are simply going to see their games fall off a cliff in that time period.

 

On the defensive side of the roster, just three guys (Streit, Schultz, del Zotto) are signed for next year and no one longer than that. And, quite frankly, we could see two of them dealt this season (likely Streit and Schultz) if the right deal comes along.

 

That's exactly where your "young defensemen" can come into the picture - not that any team in recent memory has had such an influx of talent on the blue line.

 

And the space created by either buying out or outright trading Umburglar, VLC, Gagner, Luke Schenn coupled with lower salaries from (probably) half of your blue line allows a team to pick up some nice priced veterans to add to the mix.

 

 

 

Giroux has a NMC, Simmonds an NTC. Hell, Streit and LSchenn both have NTCs...

 

Moreover, the Flyers did do the "trade stars for value" approach when they "won" the Crater/Richards trades and got the young talent (Voracek, Couturier, Simmonds, BSchenn) that they have now.

 

The idea was that this team would be in a position to win during the Giroux/Voracek next six years and I don't think that it is nonsense to say that that could actually happen.

 

Don't forget Chicken Nuggett! (McD) ! ;P

[radoran]

A little off topic, but the thing that bothers me the most is that nobody seems to be too upset with the losses.

 

I'm "upset" but I'm not "surprised." I thought they looked "okay" against the defending Eastern Conference Champions and I thought that the Florida game really exposed a lot of the weaknesses inherent in the current structure - including an inability to really deal with a speed based attack.

 

There's a lot of junk still to be sorted out from Holmgren's time screwing things up. They have a lot of good pieces - and more in the pipeline - but there are significant problems still remaining that will be shook out in the next season or two.

 

Yes, that's how bad Holmgren screwed this franchise. It will be 3-4 years from when he "left" before his influence is significantly reduced.

 

As for playoffs, I think they need to strive for the playoffs - but the simple facts of the matter are that they were a sixth place team in one of the toughest divisions in sports and they really haven't done terribly much to change that squad from last year. To be clear, I think they are better and moving in the right direction, but they were 14 points out of a playoff spot last season and there's not a lot of indications that any of the five teams in front of them last season got significantly worse. And two additional teams in the Atlantic division had more points. While I see Boston as headed for an inevitable collapse, Florida is clearly moving in the right direction.

 

"Expect" a playoff berth? It just doesn't work that way.

 

As for Giroux/Voracek - there were three teams with two players in the top ten in scoring for forwards last season. Two missed the playoffs - Philadelphia and Dallas. The other was Washington.

 

The team that won the Cup had Toews at 24th, Kane at 31 and Hossa at 48 overall in points.

 

"Putting up points" isn't the be-all and end-all of a successful hockey franchise. Being a great team is. And while there are a lot of promise in this Flyer squad - and they certainly could make the playoffs - there remains a lot of hard work for them to do before they get there.

 

Don't forget Chicken Nuggett! (McD) ! ;P

 

Oh, I haven't.

 

BUT I'D LIKE TO.

[aziz]

The team that won the Cup had Toews at 24th, Kane at 31 and Hossa at 48 overall in points.
 
"Putting up points" isn't the be-all and end-all of a successful hockey franchise. Being a great team is.

 

that's a pretty great point.

[King Knut]

honestly i dont know what impact these young guys are going to bring, it could be same players we have right now with cheaper contracts.

 

The thing to keep in mind about Hextall as our GM (and trust me, I'm more critical of him than most here) is that when he came in, it was never his plan to turn the team around in a year or two.  Some GM's will want to do that.  SOme will promise that and that's how they get the job.   Hextall came in and knew this was going to take 3 to 5 years.

 

Essentially when you look at teams that are successful now, those teams are just build differently than the Flyers are built.  The league was changing around Homer and he kept trying to build out a team the old way and it just dug him into a deeper and deeper hole. 

 

The best teams now are populated with players that aren't necessarily super high skill guys but guys who are faster, and more disciplined, and dedicated to a framework that the team functions within, buys into and knows well enough to break out of when necessary, secure in the knowledge that their line mates will compensate.

 

Essentially the Flyers are still built the way Clarke would have built them.  But Clarke was at least not dumb enough to give Tony Amonte a 6 year contract.

 

This is a long way to saying that the younger guys on this team are part of an overall idea of not giving the team a new paint job or a few new tires, but giving it an entirely new engine, drive train and power steering system. 

 

Now to your point, As exciting as the youth is on defense (and is very exciting) I think the forwards are going to be interested.  Setting aside the Umbergers and the VLC's which is where most of us spend our attention these days, guys like Raffl, B Schenn, Coots, Laughton and Konecny are a good start.  The toughest part may be on our end, trying to stop expecting any of them to break out into regular 35 goal/ 80 point scorers. 

 

I'm not sure that's where we want them if we want cups ever again.

 

Of course my main fear is that by the time Hextall gets the team he wants and Hakstol's comfortable as an NHL coach, the league Zeitgeist will have shifted and the Flyers will be really well equipped to win if they were only playing 5 years earlier.

[murraycraven]

There is no "going for it right now." This is a salary cap world and the flyers have no wiggle room with the salary cap. Nice concept but completely off base and not reality.

Hextall hands are tied...

[canoli]

Of course my main fear is that by the time Hextall gets the team he wants and Hakstol's comfortable as an NHL coach, the league Zeitgeist will have shifted and the Flyers will be really well equipped to win if they were only playing 5 years earlier.

 

that's pretty funny. So the Champs will all be full of big, lumbering tough mothers who take tons of penalties but have a world-class goaltender and a couple hotshot shooters. That truly would be the Flyers' luck.