Sink or Swim Time

[flyercanuck]

7 hours ago, radoran said:

Again I'll point to Chicago with FIVE 1/2 picks over the next two years that are mostly higher than the Flyers' picks and they already have a generational #1 in the NHL.

 

Was the fourth worth the chance at the playoffs this year?

 

We will find out.

 

Chicago has also had SIX 1st round and FIVE 2nd round picks in the last 2 drafts. Almost all of those are still in the pipeline, to go along with the picks you mentioned.

 

That's how you do a rebuild. Yes there are garbage GMs that can't, even with that. But if the planets aligned once more, like they did in 2010, and all the top teams fall in front of us and the Flyers somehow make the finals, I wonder who would win? Chicago with prime Bedard and Celebrini down the middle or the Flyers with 35 year old Couturier and Laughton who they should have traded just like Simmonds, but MAYBE PLAYOFFS!!! is more important than championships.

[flyercanuck]

7 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

Except none of us have a time machine so to say there’s a choice btw a PO appearance and a higher draft pick makes no sense to me in March 2024. If I seem to be hounding you about this it’s only bc you normally make a lot of sense. Even when I don’t share your opinion I understand it - not this time.
 

Did you mean if you could go back and start over? Is that the idea? 
 

Btw if you’re right, if Briere and Co. are all glad handing each other after a 1R exit and next year they start blowing out the prospects, renting/buying FAs to “go for it” …. I can’t even think about it.

 

 

If Briere were to actually do a rebuild, that's what I mean. Not hang onto guys like Laughton and Seeler for example for the playoff run. You add draft capital to help strengthen the team going forward, while weakening it in the present to improve your draft pick which also hopefully strengthens it going forward. 

 

See the Blackhawks, who won three cups recently NOT using the Flyers recipe and are currently NOT using the Flyers recipe again and have some great, young high end talent. And I'd bet the farm will win a cup way before Philly ever does. Their fans get to watch a wizard like Bedard....But yay, Seeler! Shot blocking specialist is just as good, amirite? And this is the kind of garbage the Flyers always hang their hat on. If we were a player or two away from looking like a contender, those guys would be worth keeping. We're not. 

 

I get it's early, and none of us know if Briere knows what he doing or not. But these kind of non moves just scream senior advisor whispering in his ear. I liked that he moved Walker for a 1st, cause that's what he was worth at the deadline. But he also takes on a crap contract AND throws in a 5th. Those are Fletcher/Homer moves. I get giving up a 4th for a 35 year old isn't going to break the bank, but that's a Fletcher/Homer move. See where I'm going here? Continually paying a little too much for a Seeler for a little too long? Remind you of anyone starting with an F or a H? 

 

ONE of those moves isn't bad. Two isn't good. Three is reminding me of some pretty lousy GMs.

Edited March 13 by flyercanuck

[SCFlyguy]

AT BEST, the Flyers' moves say, "maintain the status quo", meaning a fragile 3 seed with a shot at the playoffs.  They don't say, "we are thinking of 3-4 years down the line."

[mojo1917]

1 hour ago, flyercanuck said:

.But yay, Seeler! Shot blocking specialist is just as good, amirite?

No one thinks this.

No one.

[radoran]

3 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

but MAYBE PLAYOFFS!!! is more important than championships.

 

Similar thing happened in Nashville where they likely should have been sellers and even publicly called out the team for dogging it.

 

Then they go on a little run and the GM thinks they should be buyers to thank the team for being relatively mediocre.

 

After all, a playoff run is good experience. Losing to the eventual Cup winner in the first round is a good sign.

 

They really do feel the "rebuild" is "ahead of schedule" and that can be a problem if they are looking to build a Cup winner and not a "definitely a playoff team" team.

 

They need to take some big swings because they have some big holes that aren't likely to be filled in the lower half of the first round.

[flyercanuck]

3 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

No one thinks this.

No one.

 

All these years and you still can't read my sarcasm...

[GratefulFlyers]

@flyercanuck

 

Thanks for elaborating on the "choice" thing... got ya.

 

Maybe the Senior Advisors are still directing traffic, whispering in Briere's ear. It seems to me that crew is out of the decision-making process since you never hear from them. But that could be by design...

 

Nobody has to tell Briere what it means to fall this-short of winning the Cup. That alone doesn't make a good GM but hopefully it's important to his process. He's clearly rejected the "blow it up" path and I agree that makes it tougher to build a Cup winner. Tougher but maybe not impossible. That's really all I got - faith, hope - that he and Jones aren't trying the impossible.

 

 

[flyercanuck]

Hey @mojo the comment was sarcasm, but I meant the kiss! 

[OccamsRazor]

25 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

Hey @mojo the comment was sarcasm, but I meant the kiss! 

 

You have to love their honesty Herr.

 

Can't fix the problem till you identify it and now you have own it in order to fix it.

 

I know I'm a hard ass old grumpy vet sometimes (I get a lot from my mom God rest her soul) but I am  realist (try my best be) and well he is dead on....

 

 

[GratefulFlyers]

@OccamsRazor Yeah I appreciate his honesty too. A PP that scores above 12% would be better...

 

Who's running the Phantoms' PP? Didn't you post recently that they'd been tearing it up lately? Somebody has got to get the Flyers' PP working. It doesn't matter this year but eventually it will - can't keep wasting them the way the Flyers do.

 

I keep saying Joe Mullen - last time I looked there was nothing current about him online.

 

Never mind I found him...coaching a 3ICE league team - at least he was last year I didn't read the whole thing...Team Mullen. Go figure.

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/3ice-league-best-part-of-hockey/

 

Edited March 13 by GratefulFlyers

[OccamsRazor]

42 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

@OccamsRazor Yeah I appreciate his honesty too. A PP that scores above 12% would be better...

 

Who's running the Phantoms' PP? Didn't you post recently that they'd been tearing it up lately? Somebody has got to get the Flyers' PP working. It doesn't matter this year but eventually it will - can't keep wasting them the way the Flyers do.

 

I keep saying Joe Mullen - last time I looked there was nothing current about him online.

 

Never mind I found him...coaching a 3ICE league team - at least he was last year I didn't read the whole thing...Team Mullen. Go figure.

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/3ice-league-best-part-of-hockey/

 

 

Not sure who runs it John Snowden or Jason Smith.

[OccamsRazor]

Great attitude. Hard not to like this kid.

[OccamsRazor]

So argument time...

 

Due for an extension soon too.

 

 

 

Edited March 14 by OccamsRazor
fix boo boo

[OccamsRazor]

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

Starting the morning off right.

 

Going to be a long boring day at work.

 

Come on 7 pm....

 

[mkscrewy]

Sinking pretty good

[mojo1917]

@flyercanuck not that there's anything wrong with that!

 

Games like the recent whuppin's by the Lightning and Leaves really highlight the talent disparity. 

The Flyers do have some top 10 talent on the roster, some of them aren't dressing right now, but it is clear more very good players are needed. 

If we see it, I'm sure Danny and Keith do too. 

 

Trying to walk a middle path is difficult, I prefer what I'm seeing the Flyers do to what I've seen the Sixers and Orioles do, which has been "be terrible for decades". 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 15 by mojo1917

[GratefulFlyers]

38 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

Trying to walk a middle path is difficult,

 

For sure. The question is...is it impossible? Can a team win the Cup w/out stripping assets first so as to pick 1st or 2nd?

 

The Rangers may but they caught some huge breaks the past few years. The Flyers probably can't expect to duplicate their success.

 

I'm not convinced "tanking" is the only path. Assets are bought and sold all the time. Maybe not the overall 1st pick but just about anything else. Briere will have to be creative on draft day...if not this year then next year.

[mojo1917]

@GratefulFlyers

 

I think it can, there needs to be some luck involved.

With some luck the Flyers could be healthy Patrick 1, healthy Couturier 2, Frost, Laughton down the middle. Had it panned out, that would be pretty strong imo.

Patrick was top 5 talent, Couturier was top 10 talent...I think teams need some guys with that pedigree, the Flyers have some of those guys in the system and on the roster taken in those positions. 

I'm biased because other teams i cheer for have been really bad for really long stretches. Only after 25 years of abject, soul crushing failure have the Baltimore Orioles maybe turned a corner. The Sixers have been bad and under achieving for too long. The idea that oh just suck for a few years and everything will be fine hasn't worked for teams I like. So when i see the tear it all down school of thought, I'm always careful what you wish for.  

 

Another thing that hasn't helped was missing on some guys, O'Brien, Morin come to mind. Those missed first picks hurt the organization's depth.

The scouts need to get it right and the FO needs to hit on their chances in trades and free agency as well. 

I know the general public doesn't value culture nearly as much as the guys in the decision chairs do, I like the direction of the culture of the team.

Now there needs to be an influx of talent to get the most out of the culture. 

 

 

 

[flyercanuck]

1 hour ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

For sure. The question is...is it impossible? Can a team win the Cup w/out stripping assets first so as to pick 1st or 2nd?

 

The Rangers may but they caught some huge breaks the past few years. The Flyers probably can't expect to duplicate their success.

 

I'm not convinced "tanking" is the only path. Assets are bought and sold all the time. Maybe not the overall 1st pick but just about anything else. Briere will have to be creative on draft day...if not this year then next year.

 

The Rangers have picked 1st overall and 2nd overall in the last 5 drafts. 

[JR Ewing]

1 hour ago, GratefulFlyers said:

I'm not convinced "tanking" is the only path. Assets are bought and sold all the time. Maybe not the overall 1st pick but just about anything else. Briere will have to be creative on draft day...if not this year then next year.

 

Tanking can assure you of getting high quality picks, but a lot of things have to line up properly for it all to work.

 

You need to do it when the right player comes along. The term "generational talent" gets thrown around a lot these days. Sometimes it's used correctly, like with Crosby and McDavid and sometimes it doesn't, like with Bedard. You can still build around a player like Bedard, but I'm not entirely convinced that you should strip your organization completely of talent to get a player who falls short of that truly rare gift. The textbook example of this are the Oilers. In their case, they tried it with Taylor Hall, and he just wasn't the guy to empty to the cupboard for. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a very good hockey player, but his draft wasn't the deepest. Nail Yakupov was a disaster. Not all 1st overall picks, not even consensus #1s, are that guy.

 

It's one thing to shred talent, but it's another to build it back up. Sure, you can stockpile draft picks, but those picks need to be the right players with the right mix of qualities and at the right positions. You need the right people in player development. You need the right people in the AHL. You need an owner who keeps his nose out of hockey ops. You can't make mistakes there, or you wander in the wilderness.

 

You can't have bad luck. In 2019, the Oilers had Andrej Sekera carved out of their rebuild, due to an Achilles injury which ended his NHL career. The next season, Oscar Klefbom was forced to retire due to arthritis issues at only 26. Adam Larsson signed in Seattle the next off-season, because he couldn't bear to play hockey in the building next to the place where his father died.

 

Total rebuilds can work, but a lot factors (many of which are completely beyond your control) have to swing in your favour in order for it to go right.

 

 

[flyercanuck]

1 hour ago, mojo1917 said:

@GratefulFlyers

 

I think it can, there needs to be some luck involved.

With some luck the Flyers could be healthy Patrick 1, healthy Couturier 2, Frost, Laughton down the middle. Had it panned out, that would be pretty strong imo.

Patrick was top 5 talent, Couturier was top 10 talent...I think teams need some guys with that pedigree, the Flyers have some of those guys in the system and on the roster taken in those positions. 

I'm biased because other teams i cheer for have been really bad for really long stretches. Only after 25 years of abject, soul crushing failure have the Baltimore Orioles maybe turned a corner. The Sixers have been bad and under achieving for too long. The idea that oh just suck for a few years and everything will be fine hasn't worked for teams I like. So when i see the tear it all down school of thought, I'm always careful what you wish for.  

 

Another thing that hasn't helped was missing on some guys, O'Brien, Morin come to mind. Those missed first picks hurt the organization's depth.

The scouts need to get it right and the FO needs to hit on their chances in trades and free agency as well. 

I know the general public doesn't value culture nearly as much as the guys in the decision chairs do, I like the direction of the culture of the team.

Now there needs to be an influx of talent to get the most out of the culture. 

 

 

 

 

 

I know I posted something about this not too long ago, and I think it's something like 2 or 3 teams in the last 20 or 25 years have won the cup without a 1st overall. Those are terrible odds.

 

Of course you need good management to build around or you won't go far. See Buffalo among others. You also need some luck...I'm sure if Philly had Barkov and Makar instead of JVR and Patrick our team would look slightly different. Edmonton used to pick high all the time in week drafts until they finally nailed it with McDavid. They haven't won, but he's still the first player I'm taking on my team for a cup run, so hardly his fault. 

 

I agree culture is huge. And the Flyers are finally addressing that. But talent is also huge. 

 

edit: I see JR touched on this the same time I was posting.

Edited March 15 by flyercanuck

[JR Ewing]

8 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

 

I know I posted something about this not too long ago, and I think it's something like 2 or 3 teams in the last 20 or 25 years have won the cup without a 1st overall. Those are terrible odds.

 

Of course you need good management to build around or you won't go far. See Buffalo among others. You also need some luck...I'm sure if Philly had Barkov and Makar instead of JVR and Patrick our team would look slightly different. Edmonton used to pick high all the time in week drafts until they finally nailed it with McDavid. They haven't won, but he's still the first player I'm taking on my team for a cup run, so hardly his fault. 

 

I agree culture is huge. And the Flyers are finally addressing that. But talent is also huge. 

 

edit: I see JR touched on this the same time I was posting.

 

Even if you do everything right, you could come up against a team with a payroll approaching $100M in a league with a salary cap of $85M and get to listen to the analysts wax poetic about that team's incredible depth.

 

[radoran]

1 hour ago, mojo1917 said:

O'Brien, Morin come to mind.

 

There is no player they "missed" on with O'Brien. Yes, you could look at a K'Andre Miller, but you're still talking about a #19 pick.

 

You've got him in Poehling.

 

Similar situation with Rubustov - it's not like there's another immediate guy you can point to until the second round.

 

It's why picking lower in the draft is a hazard because some drafts are really thin.

 

With Morin, 11 overall, went two before Josh Morrissey. There's half a dozen guys you could easily point to as reliable depth if not an impact player taken soon after him.

 

Taking "a project" at 11 overall is a fool's errand #halloffame

 

The depth issue this team has can best be explained by one player representing two roster players and five draft picks to acquire.

[JR Ewing]

9 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

There is no player they "missed" on with O'Brien. Yes, you could look at a K'Andre Miller, but you're still talking about a #19 pick.

 

You've got him in Poehling.

 

Similar situation with Rubustov - it's not like there's another immediate guy you can point to until the second round.

 

It's why picking lower in the draft is a hazard because some drafts are really thin.

 

With Morin, 11 overall, went two before Josh Morrissey. There's half a dozen guys you could easily point to as reliable depth if not an impact player taken soon after him.

 

Taking "a project" at 11 overall is a fool's errand #halloffame

 

The depth issue this team has can best be explained by one player representing two roster players and five draft picks to acquire.

 

Yup. Three more of my fairly meaningless rules:

 

-Drafting Coke machines (huge, unskilled players) in anything other than the late rounds is a recipe for disaster.

-Using early picks based on a player's supposed character, without scoring numbers to back it up, is a bad idea.

-Drafting defensive specialists is usually bound to blow up in your face.