Sink or Swim Time

[OccamsRazor]

2 hours ago, ruxpin said:

I'd absolutely entertain this.

 

I'd rather send assets to secure Zegras just wait till the draft Morgan Frost will be in play by then.

[ruxpin]

5 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I'd rather send assets to secure Zegras just wait till the draft Morgan Frost will be in play by then.

Not me. I want nothing to do with that.

[flyercanuck]

14 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I'd rather send assets to secure Zegras just wait till the draft Morgan Frost will be in play by then.

 

When you get voted this by your fellow players association members....BIG PASS!

 

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/anaheim-ducks/editorials/nhl-players-vote-trevor-zegras-the-leagues-most-overrated#:~:text=Among the less traditional questions,received 7.92% of the votes.

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

1 minute ago, flyercanuck said:

 

When you get voted this by your fellow players association members....BIG PASS!

 

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/anaheim-ducks/editorials/nhl-players-vote-trevor-zegras-the-leagues-most-overrated#:~:text=Among the less traditional questions,received 7.92% of the votes.

 

 

 

 

That don't mean squat.

[flyercanuck]

11 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

That don't mean squat.

 

Well, other the fact the guys you play against for a living think you're the most overrated player in the league, sure. 

 

A guy who's great as long as no one is around him, who excels at shootouts, and can "Michigan" is hardly what the Flyers need. Unless they want to spend assets to suck.

I'd rather receive assets to suck.

 

You'll get your Michigans with Michkov.

Edited March 15 by flyercanuck

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

I'm at the point where if they miss the playoffs, it's not the end of the world. To me, it's that they came oh so close, it's going to make guys upset and they're going to come out hard all the time next year.

 

At the same time, it's going to open everyone's eyes within the organization that they aren't ready to buy yet and that they're going to need to continue to build through the draft and trades.

 

Stay the course. The rebuild isn't complete. They took a big step this year, but there's still a lot of work to do.

 

 

[ruxpin]

2 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

I'm at the point where if they miss the playoffs, it's not the end of the world. To me, it's that they came oh so close, it's going to make guys upset and they're going to come out hard all the time next year.

 

At the same time, it's going to open everyone's eyes within the organization that they aren't ready to buy yet and that they're going to need to continue to build through the draft and trades.

 

Stay the course. The rebuild isn't complete. They took a big step this year, but there's still a lot of work to do.

 

 

And the season itself was entertaining to watch. Everybody wins.

[ruxpin]

Just now, ruxpin said:

And the season itself was entertaining to watch. Everybody wins.

@BobbyClarkeFan16

 

Except the mouth-breathers (NTTAWWT) on the Flyers' Facebook page.

[SCFlyguy]

4 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

They did but they didn’t “tank” in any meaningful way prior to the famous letter to the fans or even after. Well I guess you could call it a “tank” when they traded their captain McDonogh but that was after they got their 1 and 2 picks.
 

Anyway, point taken, the Rangers are not a path the Flyers can follow or even try to follow. Not to mention they haven’t even won the Cup since picking 1/2 in successive years.
 

But who knows maybe Bedard or McDavid will suddenly decide they want to live on Philly cheesesteaks…

 

This is bizarre.  The Rangers did tank - they sent the letter to fans and traded away nearly every player that was on their Stanley Cup losing team (other than Kreider).  They were just smart and lucky about their trades and were able to rebuild more quickly than people thought.

[radoran]

36 minutes ago, SCFlyguy said:

They were just smart and lucky about their trades and were able to rebuild more quickly than people thought.

 

Panarin being available was one thing.

 

They did keep Zibenijad.

 

The key thing was identifying the players they WANTED to keep.

 

The Flyers have Couturier, Konecny, Sanheim, Laughton locked up.

 

The Rangers are actually a pretty good example of a rebuild. You don't sign 30-somethings.

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

47 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

And the season itself was entertaining to watch. Everybody wins.

Exactly. Not only was it entertaining, but the new core is going to be ok. There are five legit wingers on the club. There's even one in Foerster playing on his off wing. Imagine how much better he'd be if he were on his proper wing and even then, he looks like he's going to be legit left winger and he's gonna score some big goals. Cam York is an absolute beast on the blueline. You can see that it's coming together and he's looking like he's going to be a top two, possible number one defensemen on this club. He's looked legit. Definite fun year to watch player development.

[pilldoc]

1 hour ago, ruxpin said:

@BobbyClarkeFan16

 

Except the mouth-breathers (NTTAWWT) on the Flyers' Facebook page.

They are a bunch of buffoons….

[flyercanuck]

7 hours ago, radoran said:

The Rangers are actually a pretty good example of a rebuild. You don't sign 30-somethings.

 

Tortorella knows this. He preaches it. "You just can't fall in love" 

 

Now lets get Seeler signed long term and keep Laughton for the playoff run, and go get me another Mark Staal...who's the oldest defenceman available? We're rebuilding, right?

 

He talks the talk of a rebuild, he just doesn't walk the walk.

[SCFlyguy]

9 hours ago, radoran said:

Panarin being available was one thing.

 

They did keep Zibenijad.

 

The key thing was identifying the players they WANTED to keep.

 

The Flyers have Couturier, Konecny, Sanheim, Laughton locked up.

 

The Rangers are actually a pretty good example of a rebuild. You don't sign 30-somethings.

Agree with this, except they didn't so much "keep" Zibenijad as he was the first domino of the rebuild even if we didn't know it at the time.  They acquired him (and a 2nd round pick) by trading Derrek Brassard, who was six years older at the time.  Eighteen months later they sent out the letter, traded McDonough, and the rebuild was on.

We could do the same thing by trading Konecny for a player that better fits a rebuild timeline instead of a let's maybe make the playoffs timeline.  Instead, we will sign him to a long term deal and wonder why the team hasn't done anything in 5 years.

[GratefulFlyers]

10 hours ago, SCFlyguy said:

they sent the letter to fans and traded away nearly every player that was on their Stanley Cup losing team (other than Kreider).

 

after the letter went out they traded 5 veteran players and got back 3 players + prospects/picks. Nash Grabner and Holden were all UFAs, McD and Miller still had term. They got a real good return for them there's no doubt about that. They didn't trade Lundqvist (who would?). They got a good haul for the 5 they traded. Maybe that's "tanking" to you not to me.

[flyercanuck]

6 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

after the letter went out they traded 5 veteran players and got back 3 players + prospects/picks. Nash Grabner and Holden were all UFAs, McD and Miller still had term. They got a real good return for them there's no doubt about that. They didn't trade Lundqvist (who would?). They got a good haul for the 5 they traded. Maybe that's "tanking" to you not to me.

 

Well you can call it 'rebuild". Trading away pieces for the "now" and getting return for down the road aka picks/younger players. 

 

It's what we should be doing, instead of maybe making the playoffs.

Edited March 16 by flyercanuck

[GratefulFlyers]

8 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

It's what we should be doing, instead of maybe making the playoffs.

 

I think they are doing it just not as thoroughly as you'd like. I'm talking about keeping TK and Hart. As far as the TD - the moves were minor - even extending Seeler - they barely move the needle on the rebuild.

 

Sure they could've dumped Laughton for a 2R, Seeler too. I just don't think that would've made much difference, either to the PO push this year or to the longer term.

[flyercanuck]

8 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

I think they are doing it just not as thoroughly as you'd like. I'm talking about keeping TK and Hart. As far as the TD - the moves were minor - even extending Seeler - they barely move the needle on the rebuild.

 

Sure they could've dumped Laughton for a 2R, Seeler too. I just don't think that would've made much difference, either to the PO push this year or to the longer term.

 

None of these moves, on their own, are big deals. 

 

Neither were Clarkes or Holmgrens throwing away of 2nd round draft picks. Until you start seeing them do it on a consistent basis, and they add up to where we are now, and STILL doing the same things. Throwing in draft picks where theres no need for it, signing players that don't fit into a rebuild, TRADING for 35 year old defenceman. It's just doing the same crap that gets us nowhere. 

 

And here we are, wasting away again in Mediocreville, (sing it with me) searching for my lost draft pick and salt 

[GratefulFlyers]

55 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

Neither were Clarkes or Holmgrens throwing away of 2nd round draft picks. Until you start seeing them do it on a consistent basis, and they add up to where we are now, and STILL doing the same things.

 

By my count Briere's made 2 moves that Clarke/Holmgren would've made: extending Seeler and signing Johnson. If you try to count the moves Briere didn't make I think that's futile. Too many unknowns, especially what offers he got for X, Y or Z.

 

I defend Briere not because I'm convinced he'll succeed. Obviously he's trying to thread a needle and it's risky (just like "tanking" for the draft is btw). But you seem convinced he'll fail. I can't agree with you there.

 

I like a lot about the Flyers these days. But what I like doesn't blind me to the holes in the roster. I'm sure Jones and Briere aren't blind either. Soon enough we'll know for sure where the Flyers are heading: legitimate Cup contender or back to Mediocreville. To claim you already know is a mistake imho.

 

 

[flyercanuck]

4 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

By my count Briere's made 2 moves that Clarke/Holmgren would've made: extending Seeler and signing Johnson. If you try to count the moves Briere didn't make I think that's futile. Too many unknowns, especially what offers he got for X, Y or Z.

 

I defend Briere not because I'm convinced he'll succeed. Obviously he's trying to thread a needle and it's risky (just like "tanking" for the draft is btw). But you seem convinced he'll fail. I can't agree with you there.

 

I like a lot about the Flyers these days. But what I like doesn't blind me to the holes in the roster. I'm sure Jones and Briere aren't blind either. Soon enough we'll know for sure where the Flyers are heading: legitimate Cup contender or back to Mediocreville. To claim you already know is a mistake imho.

 

 

 

Some people say that theres a woman to blame, but I know..... its the senior advisors fault. SING IT!  

 

 

Well, today we are 15th out of 32 teams. So I actually do know we are mediocre. 

 

[GratefulFlyers]

1 minute ago, flyercanuck said:

Well, today we are 15th out of 32 teams. So I actually do know we are mediocre. 

 

man you really are a glass-half-empty kind of a guy aren't you? Just kidding but you know sitting 15th is a recent change. Most of the year they were 6th overall. By the end of this stretch of March games they may be out of the PO picture entirely. 

 

But that's fine. Mediocre is fine ... for now. For this year even next year don't you think? The question is where they're heading. And that we can't know until a few more drafts, a few more TDs have passed. We're early in the rebuild.

[flyercanuck]

2 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

man you really are a glass-half-empty kind of a guy aren't you? Just kidding but you know sitting 15th is a recent change. Most of the year they were 6th overall. By the end of this stretch of March games they may be out of the PO picture entirely. 

 

But that's fine. Mediocre is fine ... for now. For this year even next year don't you think? The question is where they're heading. And that we can't know until a few more drafts, a few more TDs have passed. We're early in the rebuild.

 

 Mediocre is fine....

 

The problem is, a few more mediocre drafts, added to a mediocre team, equals what?

 

They need high end talent. Rarely do you get that picking from the middle of the pack on down.

 

I know you see this as glass half full, just like I see anyone cheering for this team being mediocre half insane.  

The best case scenario for this team is for them to lose their way as far down as they can get in the standings so Briere/Homer/Clarke/Jones and all the other ex-Flyers can see, NO, WE'RE NOT CLOSE!!!!!

No, I don't expect the players to go into games saying " Lets lose this one for flyercanuck". I'm saying it would be the best thing to happen to this so called "rebuild". 

[GratefulFlyers]

25 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

The best case scenario for this team is for them to lose their way as far down as they can get in the standings so Briere/Homer/Clarke/Jones and all the other ex-Flyers can see, NO, WE'RE NOT CLOSE!!!!!

 

And my point all along is that Jones and Briere already know they're not close. Proof? They keep saying exactly that ... over and over and over again. And let's recall they were saying this while the Flyers were beating Dallas, Winnipeg, Florida... before the TD.

 

"we're in this for the long haul"

"we're trying to build a Cup champion, a team that can compete at the highest level for years"

"Florida is a good example of the type of team we're trying to build"

"we're not mortgaging the future for a PO run this year."

 

Since the beginning Jones and Briere have repeated statements like these ad nauseam.

 

The holes are obvious; they don't need to lose games to see them. Everyone  knows they overachieved this year, that Tortorella got the most anyone could possibly get out of them. It's not a spoiler alert to anyone connected to the team that they need more talented players to get where they want to go.

 

 

Edited March 16 by GratefulFlyers

[Buddy]

I felt like after all these years I should finally contribute something, so here goes.

 

I wanted to look more into this: "and I think it's something like 2 or 3 teams in the last 20 or 25 years have won the cup without a 1st overall. Those are terrible odds. "

 

For each Stanley Cup winner, starting from 1980 NYI Cup Win:

• # of times the winning team did not have a #1 Draft Pick: 25
• # of times the winning team had their #1 Draft Pick: 17
• # of times the winning team had someone else's #1 Draft Pick: 2

(although this actually excludes Gretzky, coming from the WHA and not a #1 draft pick)

 

Keeping more recent, starting from 2000 NJD Cup Win:

• # of times the winning team did not have a #1 Draft Pick: 12
• # of times the winning team had their #1 Draft Pick: 10
• # of times the winning team had someone else's #1 Draft Pick: 1

So really this is about 55/45 in favor of not having a #1 pick on your team in order to win a cup

 

Going deeper:

The recent (from 2000 NJD) wins are from these picks: Vincent Lecavlier, Fleury & Crosby, Patrick Kane, Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Erik Johnson

 

That's it.  Of these, let's say Patrick Kane, Crosby&Fluery (on the same team no less), and Ovechkin could be considered "Generational Talent".  They account for 7 Cups of the last 24. That's definitely sizeable, sure. 

 

But that also leaves only three "very good, but not generationally good" #1 picks that won a cup in the last 24 years: Lecavalier, Stamkos, and Erik Johnson (and he wasn't even drafted by the 2022 Colorado team).  

 

Another way to look at this, how many #1 Draft picks have won a Stanley Cup? 

Going back to 1980, of the 44 #1 draft picks, only 11 of them won a cup, and 2 of them were with a team that didn't draft them.  That's only 25%.

 

Make of that what you will, but personally, tanking for tanking's sake is not a winning strategy. It did work for Pittsburgh (twice actually, which f***ing pains me), but it's failed way more than succeeded. 

 

Edited March 16 by Buddy

[pilldoc]

2 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

And here we are, wasting away again in Mediocreville, (sing it with me) searching for my lost draft pick and salt 

Brilliant and sadly right on point….