EAST Playoffs '23-'24 Round 1: (WC2) Washington Capitals at (M1) New York Rangers (NYR Win 4-0)

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

                                                  

 

Alex Ovechkin and his Washington Capitals, despite looking a bit like sellers at the deadline, have beaten out some very disappointed teams to secure their meeting in Round 1 against the President's Trophy winning, and Metro Division champions, the New York Rangers.

Teams split their season series 2-2, and it seems the scores severely favored the winning team, suggesting that whomever dictates their gameplan, likely dominates the other here.

NY Rangers tale of the tape:
Season Record: 55-23-4, 114 pts________ Home/Rd Splits: 30-11-0 / 25-12-4
Offense, Defense: 282 GF, 239 GA good for a +53 differential
Special Teams: PP 26.4% (3rd), PK 84.5% (3rd)

 

Washington Capitals tale of the tape:
Season Record: 40-31-11, 91 pts_______ Home/Rd Splits: 22-12-7 / 18-19-4

Offense, Defense: 220 GF, 257 GA good for a -37 differential

Special Teams: PP 20.6% (17th), PK 79.0% (18th)

All discussion of the Caps n Rangers go right here!

Edited Monday at 04:29 AM by TropicalFruitGirl26

[SaucyJack]

Do not expect another #8 over #1 here, like Panthers over Bruins last year.

 

This year’s #8 in the East has had season-long difficulties in finishing an adequate % of good scoring chances.  Caps PxP man Joe Beninati even mentioned it late in the 2nd period on Monday night, in a 1-0 game where the Caps should have been 3-0 or better on Boston.

 

At least at the very end, Washington back-checked very well, limiting chances by their higher-skilled opponents, earning low-scoring victories.  That’s their one forté this season.  Their record in 1-goal games is something like 13-2.   It is so rare to see Washington blow anyone out, while they get blown out with some regularity.

 

Hence the worst team +/- of any playoff team since 1991, back when 16 of 21 qualified.  (Or so I heard said on TV today.)

 

Maybe Ovechkin can bag an OT winner for the first time.

 

Haven’t decided on the spread yet, but it would surprise to see the Rags lose this.  (President’s Trophy curse notwithstanding.)

Edited April 18 by SaucyJack

[Buffalo Rick]

8 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

Do not expect another #8 over #1 here, like Panthers over Bruins last year.

 

This year’s #8 in the East has had season-long difficulties in finishing an adequate % of good scoring chances.  Caps PxP man Joe Beninati even mentioned it late in the 2nd period on Monday night, in a 1-0 game where the Caps should have been 3-0 or better on Boston.

 

At least at the very end, Washington back-checked very well, limiting chances by their higher-skilled opponents, earning low-scoring victories.  That’s their one forté this season.  Their record in 1-goal games is something like 13-2.   It is so rare to see Washington blow anyone out, while they get blown out with some regularity.

 

Hence the worst team +/- of any playoff team since 1991, back when 16 of 21 qualified.  (Or so I heard said on TV today.)

 

Maybe Ovechkin can bag an OT winner for the first time.

 

Haven’t decided on the spread yet, but it would surprise to see the Rags lose this.  (President’s Trophy curse notwithstanding.)

My Sabres beat Washington two straight down the stretch.  I voted Rangers in 5.  It could be 4.

[radoran]

This is a good sign for the Capitals.

 

[mojo1917]

I can't tell if this year's Washington offering is a bad good team or a good bad team...regardless the Rangers, though I think they are soft and I hate them with fire of 1000 suns, are better in every facet of the game.

I think the games will be competitive but dudes like Vinnie Trocheck, and Alex Lafrenière will make the difference for the Rangers in victory.

 

[SaucyJack]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Rick said:

My Sabres beat Washington two straight down the stretch.

Yes, both in Buffalo, but I thought that was telling, too.  Games were not close, Sabres totally outplayed the Caps.

 

All the more surprising how Washington did in their last 3, earning the full 6 points, to survive. 

 

 

[Buffalo Rick]

44 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

Yes, both in Buffalo, but I thought that was telling, too.  Games were not close, Sabres totally outplayed the Caps.

 

All the more surprising how Washington did in their last 3, earning the full 6 points, to survive. 

 

 

If Philly had won that game in OT would it have changed things?

[JR Ewing]

As far as I can tell, the 2024 Caps are the worst playoff team of the salary cap era. Most years, there's a playoff team with a goal differential of something in the territory of -5 to -15 at worst. The Caps are -37.

 

edit - only now do I see @SaucyJack had mentioned the same thing. I'll stop backtracking through Hockey Reference.    lol

Edited April 18 by JR Ewing

[FD19372]

Rangers in 7. If Backstrom was able to play, and not just going over to the Ovechkins' house for breakfast, I'd probably pick the Capitals. The Rangers have a bit too much offensive firepower, although Washington split the season season series with them. Now, I just jinxed the Rangers.Go Caps, though I'm not picking them to win the series.

Edited April 19 by FD19372

[SaucyJack]

7 hours ago, Buffalo Rick said:

If Philly had won that game in OT would it have changed things?

 Not for Philly…but it would have eliminated Washington because Detroit won their game.  (Wings would have been one point above the Caps.)

[SaucyJack]

I see I picked the most popular choice just now.  (I did not peek first, honest!)

 

Caps win game 3 on an Ovi power play goal in OT.

[Buffalo Rick]

6 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

 Not for Philly…but it would have eliminated Washington because Detroit won their game.  (Wings would have been one point above the Caps.)

Detroit is tough to read.  They liked scary earlier in season then went on that long losing streak.  I hope Ovetchkin retires.  Even if he catch’s Wayne, I won’t respect it! 

[thegx.ca]

Caps snuck in but won't go anywhere they're getting sweeped...

[Math]

Goalies: 

Defense: 

Offense: 

Special teams (PP/PK): 

Coaching: 

Mental: 

Experience: 

Robustness: 

Depth: 

 

The most debalanced series I'd say. I wanted to put a Caps logo maybe on the special teams just because of Ovi but I think the difference is too big. The Caps will still avoid the sweep with one of those win where they put everything on the ice.

 

Rangers in 5.

[Buffalo Rick]

On 4/18/2024 at 4:15 PM, JR Ewing said:

As far as I can tell, the 2024 Caps are the worst playoff team of the salary cap era. Most years, there's a playoff team with a goal differential of something in the territory of -5 to -15 at worst. The Caps are -37.

 

edit - only now do I see @SaucyJack had mentioned the same thing. I'll stop backtracking through Hockey Reference.    lol

Quite a stretch to say they are the worst.  I’m They did play well at times this year.  I would not say they are the worst in all those years?  The Islanders don’t deserve to be in .  I wouldn’t say they are any better?  Does it matter?  Both will be gone in first round.

[JR Ewing]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Rick said:

Quite a stretch to say they are the worst.  I’m They did play well at times this year.  I would not say they are the worst in all those years?  The Islanders don’t deserve to be in .  I wouldn’t say they are any better?  Does it matter?  Both will be gone in first round.

 

No, I'll stand by that. The Isles were bad, but their goal differential was "only" -17. Both are weak playoff teams, but you have to go back decades to find a team in the playoffs that gave up so much more than they got, and there's a linear relationship between goal differential and winning.

[yave1964]

Caps built on defense, will make it a series but rangers will have their way in six 

[SaucyJack]

Save us, Saint Charlie

 

 

With the help of back-checking angels

[Buffalo Rick]

On 4/20/2024 at 2:08 AM, JR Ewing said:

 

No, I'll stand by that. The Isles were bad, but their goal differential was "only" -17. Both are weak playoff teams, but you have to go back decades to find a team in the playoffs that gave up so much more than they got, and there's a linear relationship between goal differential and winning.

Usually yes.  Bad luck early for Leafs in game one last night.  I know you hate the Leafs.  I hope by some miracle they win.  I  think they will give Boston a fight at the least.  I believe that between your Oilers, Winnipeg and Vancouver, at least one makes it to final ending Canada drought.  Vancouver has not been as good as they were earlier.  Winnipeg has been pretty solid, maybe the best chance they have had in ages?   And then there is McDavid.  The Leafs have Matthews.  69 goals.  I just can’t figure them out.  One night they can beat anyone and many nights they just don’t show up.   

[SaucyJack]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Rick said:

Bad luck early for Leafs in game one last night.  I know you hate the Leafs….etc….etc….yada yada yada

This is the Rangers-Caps bleedin’ thread. 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Caps were the winner of the "Flawed Teams" sweepstakes that cluttered the bottom of the Eastern wildcard standings (DET, PIT, PHI), and while they certainly did well to make it in, their reward for their efforts is the highest point total team in the league.

Ovechkin turning into a playoff beast, secondary scoring supporting him accordingly, Caps containing the NY offense, Tom Wilson being his usual rugged and/or cheap self, and President's Trophy curses....all of those things have to go right in order for Washington to have a chance here.

I believe the Rangers can be considered a viable Cup team....however, I also believe they are a tad overrated, and aren't as good as the media hype would have you believe.
I've been saying this for awhile now for the last couple seasons, and have been right so far, as the Rangers have failed when they needed to take "that next step" in the playoffs.

Maybe this is the year that I will be wrong about them, and they get it done?
I believe NY can be exploited in areas of transition offense, battles along the boards, and overworking and overflowing the zone to make Shesterkin's job harder than it needs to be.

But I do not believe Washington is the team to exploit the Rangers, UNLESS, the aforementioned Capitals key points are met and executed to perfection.

Rangers in 5.

[SaucyJack]

[JR Ewing]

I will say this... I don't think the Rangers are as good as a lot of people give them credit for. They play in a division with only one other team that's good. They had middling xGoals%, Scoring Chance% and High Danger%... We don't generally define the best teams as the ones who give up more (and better) scoring chances than their opponent.

 

[SaucyJack]

[SaucyJack]

21 hours ago, yave1964 said:

Caps built on defense, will make it a series

 No doubt; must be low-scoring series for the Washingtonians…

 

…blue-liners Rasmus Sandin and Nick Jensen remain out.  Will need good work from young’un Vincent Iorio and journeyman Dylan McIlrath.