Well the good news is....

[Polaris922]

That's the funniest damn thing I've read in a very long time.

If you read how the lottery was actually handled by the league after the lockout season, you would see that the Pens had the lowest percentage chance of winning the number one pick than any of he previous lotteries held to date. If you study the way thee draft was handled, as I've had to thanks to the numerous allegations of it being "fixed" by your fellow Flyers fans, you would see that traditionally the last place team from the prior season held a 25% chance to win the first overall pick. That year, the NHL decided to make ALL teams elligible due to the lockout. That reduced the Penguins chances of winning the first overall pick to 6.3%, along with three other clubs.

So yes, funny as most Flyers fans may find it, the NHL's decision gave us the lowest chance to win the overall number one pick in the history of the draft to this date. Instead of only the bottom five teams having a weighted system to win the number one pick, all thirty teams got a shot at it.

So yes, I am sure the NHL fixed the lottery for the Penguins and put the greatest player to join the league since Lemieux into one of the smallest television markets in the league.

Back to the point... IF your boys continue to struggle this season, the draft lottery may work to your advantage.

The likelihood of each team gaining the right to the first pick is:

30th place: 25.0%

29th place: 18.8%

28th place: 14.2%

27th place: 10.7%

26th place: 8.1%

25th place: 6.2%

24th place: 4.7%

23th place: 3.6%

22th place: 2.7%

21th place: 2.1%

20th place: 1.5%

19th place: 1.1%

18th place: 0.8%

17th place: 0.5%

[jammer2]

@Polaris922 Ahhh, thanks for posting that...did not know the breakdown for the entire lottery, only knew the last pick...you really wanna be in the bottom 5, there you're sitting pretty with a sure fire impact player, have a realistic chance to move up to #1 but can only be forced back to #5, still a really strong spot in this years draft.

[ruxpin]

@Polaris922

That's all fine and good, but when you suddenly take it behind closed doors for the only time in recent memory, the accusation that the Pens have a 100% chance of winning the pick is expected.

[Polaris922]

@Polaris922

That's all fine and good, but when you suddenly take it behind closed doors for the only time in recent memory, the accusation that the Pens have a 100% chance of winning the pick is expected.

But that allegation also has to be tainted by the fact that 30 teams had representatives in that room. Not 5... THIRTY. So for the allegation to hold salt, someone has to believe that all 30 teams agreed to it, and all 30 teams had the ability to keep the minimum of four or five people in the know per team to keep it quiet and never utter a word about it.

Have you ever told someone a secret? How long does it last? Now we're supposed to believe 150 team employees and owners, plus a half dozen or so league officials... all kept it quiet for the good of the Penguins?

How ludicrous does it get? Would've been easier just to fix the ping pong balls and do it publicly so nobody would speculate.

It was also the only time in the history of the sport that there had been a season lost to a lockout, and the only time in history where the league decided all 30 teams had a shot at the number one pick. The only time in history where the team that had lost the most in the previously played season had no better odds than four other teams of winning that pick. And BARELY better odds than the entire rest of the league.

The point is... if they were going to truly fix the lottery, they never would have bothered with a lottery in the first place. IF all the owners agreed to the pick going to the Pens, they simply would've said that due to the lockout season and the damages incurred to the league, the draft order would be from worst to first as it had been done historically until 1995. Fans may have grumbled, but I bet less than we see now with the closed door conspiracy. Or if the number one prospect weren't Sidney Crosby.

Edited March 16, 2013 by Polaris922

[FD19372]

It's starting to look realistic that we could be drafting Jones, Drouin, MacKinnon, Barkov or Nurse. It could make watching this garbage for 20 more games at least tolerable.

Of course Holmgren will then trade the pick, along with Braydon Schenn and Jakub Voracek for Chara.

]Then, as soon as that happens, of course Chara will break his leg and be gone for the year.

[flyercanuck]

@Polaris922 Ahhh, thanks for posting that...did not know the breakdown for the entire lottery, only knew the last pick...you really wanna be in the bottom 5, there you're sitting pretty with a sure fire impact player, have a realistic chance to move up to #1 but can only be forced back to #5, still a really strong spot in this years draft.

Actually, if you ended up 5th you could potentially end up picking 6th overall, which is what would happen to Philly in a 5 player draft.

And Polaris, I'll take the worst odds of getting the top pick anyday if you're going to end up giving me the top pick.

[ruxpin]

@Polaris922

Since this is the first I'm hearing this version of events, I'm just wondering where it comes from. At this point I'm not doubting you--ive learned you're usually pretty on fact--but the details are in oposition to the accounts I've previously heard.

[TedZep]

And Polaris, I'll take the worst odds of getting the top pick anyday if you're going to end up giving me the top pick.

"Odds", right, wink wink, nudge nudge, ya know what I mean?

[pilldoc]

The number is their current projected ranking according to SI.com (of course subject to change)

I listed only the Defensemen, with the notable exception of a goalie at #16.

1. Seth Jones, D, Portland, WHL: His strong finish to the regular season has put distance between him and the others contending for the top spot in June. That’s saying something. (PR: 1)

7. Darnell Nurse, D, Sault Ste. Marie, OHL: Same story with Nurse. His game continued to improve over the last six weeks, but there was no room to move him up. His offensive reads impressed me in two recent viewings moreso than they did earlier in the year. You can see his confidence growing. Huge upside with this kid. (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Pulock: D, Brandon, WHL: His consistency waned a bit down the stretch, but playing through a wrist injury could account for that. Heavy shot and solid passing skills paint him as a future power play QB. Everyone raves about his character. (PR: 8)

16. Zach Fucale, G, Halifax, QMJHL: Sure, he plays behind a powerhouse squad in Halifax, but his 44 wins heading into this weekend (March 16-17) is the most by a Q goalie in 34 years. The kid knows how to come out on top. Talent-wise, I think this is the right slot for Fucale, but with more than a few teams looking for a long-term goalie option, he could go much higher. (PR: 17)

17. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, TPS Turku, FIN: I’m probably going against the grain here on Ristolainen, but nothing I’ve seen or been told has convinced me to move him higher. With two years in the SM-Liiga under his belt and a man-sized body (6-foot-3, 206 pounds), he has an opportunity to make a quick transition to the NHL, but I’m not convinced that he has the tool box to hold all of his tools. A little more edge wouldn’t hurt, either.(PR: 11)

21. Nikita Zadorov, D, London, OHL: I know there are teams who like him a lot better than this, but taking a defensive defenseman too high seems like a mismanagement of an asset. What Zadorov brings is a massive (6-foot-5, 229-pound) frame, a nasty disposition and the potential to become a dominating shutdown presence. (PR: 16)

22. Shea Theodore, D, Seattle, WHL:: Playing on a lousy Thunderbirds squad has allowed Theodore opportunities that wouldn’t have been available to him on a stronger club. All that critical ice time has accelerated his development, moving him into the late-first round mix. The offensive-minded defender needs to sharpen his decision making, but his skating and transition skills help cover the occasional blemish. Scoring 19 goals doesn’t hurt, either. (PR: NR)

23. Josh Morrissey, D, Prince Albert, WHL: Love his offensive potential, but there are questions about his ability to handle physical play after he was manhandled down the stretch. Of course, it’s worth remembering everyone had the same concerns about Cam Fowler a couple of years back. I get the sense he could swing up or down 10 spots. (PR: 12)

26. Robert Hagg, D, MoDo, SWE: Mobile blueliner will make the occasional insane decision with the puck, but that’s the trade-off for his ability to make high-end plays. Has the size (6-foot-2, 204 pounds) that might convince a team to snag him earlier. (PR: 24)

28. Ian McCoshen, D, USNTDP, USHL: Not much I’d change about my previous synopsis: Smart, steady and physical defender who can handle the puck and chew up minutes. (PR: 29)

30. Gustav Olofsson, D, Green Bay, USHL:: Maybe I caught him at his best, but the 6-foot-2, 189-pound blueliner is a player I could see a patient team taking in the first round and slowly nurturing. He skates well and makes good decisions with, and without, the puck. Makes a consistently nice first pass, too. His game screams upside. (PR: NR)

AND HERE IS THE PROJECTED MOCK (of course subject to change)

2013 NHL Mock Draft by Chris Peters

1. Florida Panthers – Seth Jones (WHL) -- D

Unlike some other teams that might find themselves at No. 1, this should be an easy decision for Florida. With a stocked crop of forwards in the prospect pipeline, Jones is the cornerstone defenseman around which Dale Tallon can build. He's NHL ready and would bring some much-needed star power to the Panthers. One scout told me that Jones is pulling away from the pack and will be No. 1 on a lot of team's draft boards.

2. Washington Capitals – Nathan MacKinnon (QMJHL) -- C

The Caps would probably love to see Jones fall to them, but MacKinnon is a pretty safe pick at No. 2. His elite speed and good all-around game would provide some fairly quick help to a team that has uncharacteristically struggled to score. He has dipped a bit on some draft boards, but MacKinnon is still a special player with clear NHL ability and game-breaking potential.

3. Buffalo Sabres – Jonathan Drouin (QMJHL) -- LW

There might be a more pressing organizational need on the blue line for Buffalo, but Drouin is too obvious a choice in this position. Some teams have him ahead of MacKinnon, and I believe Drouin probably has a higher potential. That upside isn't without risk because his size is moderately concerning. But there isn't a player in this draft, or maybe the last who knows how many, who can do what he can with the puck on his stick.

4. Tampa Bay Lightning – Aleksander Barkov (SML) -- C

Barkov is a do-everything center who has put up some incredible numbers playing in Finland's top pro league this year. His offensive skill, size and immense hockey sense give Barkov a sense of NHL readiness. He might not have the upside of the previous three, but where he is already at is pretty impressive. He's pretty clearly the next best available after “The Big Three.”

5. Colorado Avalanche – Elias Lindholm (SEL) -- C

A crafty forward who can play center or wing, Lindholm has a lot of tools that make him a good bet to go in the top five. Colorado has a pretty light prospect pipeline, so getting a player with Lindholm's upside and skill could be huge. He's playing very well in Sweden's top pro league and was solid at the World Juniors for Sweden.

6. Calgary Flames – Sean Monahan (OHL) -- C

Calgary's failed attempt to sign Ryan O'Reilly might not be all bad. The Flames' struggles could get them in good position to grab a strong two-way center. Monahan fits that bill with a good amount of offense. He played for a poor team this year in the OHL, but he's a two-time 30-goal scorer in the OHL. He has great size and looks like a very safe pick in this range due to his high-end hockey sense.

7. Philadelphia Flyers – Darnell Nurse (OHL) -- D

This could be a slight reach of a pick here, but I think Nurse plays the style that the Flyers love. There's a real edge to his game and such a strong defensive presence. He has terrific size and skates well. One NHL scout told me Nurse stands out because he already plays an NHL-style game. He's defense first, but the offensive aspects of his game are starting to show this year, too.

8. Columbus Blue Jackets – Valeri Nichushkin (KHL) -- LW

The Blue Jackets have three picks in the first round, and it's such a great year to have them. Nichushkin has made it pretty clear that he wants to play in the NHL, and he should be an easy pick in this range. Nichushkin has incredible size, speed and skill. He has top-six upside and is currently getting challenge in the KHL. This would make for a great first pick of the Jarmo Kekalainen Era.

9. Edmonton Oilers – Nikita Zadorov (OHL) -- D

With the cupboard filled with forwards from three straight first-overall picks, the Oilers could look to defense. There's a bevy of good choices, but Nikita Zadorov could be that high-upside rear guard whom Edmonton can help develop into a high-end defensive defenseman. There's still some rawness to the 6-foot-5 blueliner, but he can play mean and has some good mobility.

10. New York Islanders – Rasmus Ristolainen (SML) -- D

A solid defensive defenseman with some puck-moving ability, Ristolainen has been playing in the Finnish pros the last two years. While there's some debate on his upside, there's little argument about Ristolainen's ability. He has great awareness and solid mobility to go with NHL-ready size. Ristolainen probably isn't terribly far off from being ready to hop into an NHL lineup.

Edited March 16, 2013 by pilldoc

[doom88]

Hopefully homer can trade Briere and a pick if necessary for a mid to late first rounder. Seems like a nice draft, but you never know with the NHL...

[pilldoc]

See the new thread I started regarding the draft. Should probably have one thread dedicated to that solely.

[Polaris922]

@flyercanuck

It worked out great for us. I just show the facts to dispel the allegations of favoritism or conspiracy.

@ruxpin

The best description of how that draft order was selected is here:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

@TedZep

There's no point in showing you the facts. You've proven repeatedly you'll ignore them unless they coincide with what's on Flyervision.

[jammer2]

@flyercanuck "Actually, if you ended up 5th you could potentially end up picking 6th overall, which is what would happen to Philly in a 5 player draft."

Thanks, that's the point I was trying to make, but it came out a little blurred.

[JackStraw]

If the Flyers end up with Nurse, I would be very happy.

[TedZep]

There's no point in showing you the facts.

YOU weren't in the room at the time, so don't talk to me about "facts." The Penguins are the only team I know of that admitted to tanking a season, and the bevy of smoking guns suggest that is endemic, part and parcel of the Penguins' organization mindset.

[Polaris922]

YOU weren't in the room at the time, so don't talk to me about "facts." The Penguins are the only team I know of that admitted to tanking a season, and the bevy of smoking guns suggest that is endemic, part and parcel of the Penguins' organization mindset.

Again... conspiracy theory. One coach admitted to "not being upset about losing" and making moves to tank a handful of games at the end of a losing season. Again under previous management and ownership. That doesn't make the current organization culpable for the actions of the past. And again,with Crosby, your Flyers rep was in the room... I'm sure they would happily go along with handing the Pens Crosby. Please... where is this bevy of smoking guns you speak of? Part and parcel? Justify such statements or stop making them. As of yet you're efforts have born no fruit. But you do give us something to laugh about with your theories and unsubstantiated allegations.