Re-Signing MacDonald

[radoran]

@radoran

 

 I think people get so used to some of Holmgrens idiotic contracts (and in fairness he does sign some very good ones) that they think MacDonald will likely get that. I don't want him for $5 million, that's for sure. Closer to 4 and I'm in.

 

He's 27, never made more than $550 a season - here's five years at $4.333M. That's $21.5M. You're a UFA again at 33 and are playing for a franchise that's shooting for the moon every year. Limited NTC if needed to finalize and throw them a bone.

 

And I'm starting negotiations at $4.125 for four.

[flyercanuck]

@radoran

 

 Just playing for a team that's on the rise instead of stuck in limbo every year should take care of anything he wanted over $4 million.

[murraycraven]

MacDonald at $5M (not to mention more) is the next whipping boy - a poor man's Matt Carle ($5.5M, #16 overall shot blocker, two-time 40 point player about to hit his fifth 30+ point season (not even "projecting" his 22 in 48 last season (37.5)). Oh, and Carle is a career +70 who had his last "minus" season in 07-08.

 

LOL... I was thinking the same exact thing Rad.  If he is getting 5M or more a year I would seriously hesitate to sign him.   I want to see how he performs down the stretch and in the playoffs before even thinking about 5M a year...

[CoachX]

I don't want to get into the salaries and cap implications surrounding this issue, its just mind numbing to me. However, I really like watching McDonald and Streit play, and the defense overall. I hope the Flyers figure out how to keep this team together

[jammer2]

  If I'm McDaddy's agent, I start out negotiations comparing the Flyers record in 2014 without Andrew, and the record with him. This team turned the corner when he got here. Maybe a bit of coincidence here, but Andrew's agent will claim that is nonsense. My guess is a 5 year deal for 5.3 mill per year. He is probably not worth that, but he is holding all the cards here. If Homer's offer is not overpaying a bit, then he will simply walk to UFA status, but Homer has draft picks invested....AND the knowledge he makes the whole 2nd pairing workable. So, it's not just McDonalds talent, but the fact he makes Luke the Fluke respectable. If he leaves, will Luke return to being crappy??....my guess is yes, so a LOT at stake here. He gets over 5 mill for sure. I do believe he has some offensive upside, even this late into his career (although rad made a good point, he was on the top pp with Tavares, how do you get any better than that?).

 

 

 The cap will go up, so perhaps the 4.7 a player made this year will translate to 5.1-5.4 next season, so that makes Andrew making over 5 mill a little more palatable. He may not produce the same amount of offense that Carle does, but he plays a better all round game, and skates a tad better, although Matthew was no turtle either. At least to this point, he's not as susceptible to the tragic brain farts that plagued Carle every once and a while. The fact he was such a negative coming from the Islanders just reinforces the thought of how very crappy the Islanders are. 

[radoran]

He gets over 5 mill for sure.

 

All I'm saying is I guarandamntee you that at over $5M he's the next whipping boy as an overpaid bum. Because at $5M or more, he's simply not worth the money.

 

This team turned the corner when he got here.

 

The team was 4-1 in February and had won two in a row just before the trade. The only hiccough since the Olympics was the Sharks game. Any suggestion that the team's entire fortunes have been turned around by the arrival of Andrew MacDonald (9 games, 1 point, even) is, quite frankly, laughable. As for "offensive upside" - again, one point in nine games.

 

That's not to say he hasn't had a positive effect - he obviously has. But he hasn't made Giroux, Simmonds, etc. better. Giroux had three points against Washington the game before the trade and three points against Washington the game after the trade. He has 13 points in the nine games since the trade and had 14 points in the nine games before the trade. Simmonds has nine since and had seven before.

 

Any agent trying that line of negotiation to drive up the price rightnow is simply barking up the wrong tree because...

 

If Homer's offer is not overpaying a bit, then he will simply walk to UFA status

 

At this point they simply can't sign him at more than $4.5M (they don't have the tagging space). So, if he wants more than $4.5M he's going to be a UFA and be able to test the market.

 

You have said before he will get $6M on the open market. If that's the case, regardless of his effect on Luke Schenn or draft picks invested, etc. - he's gone. There's no way that he's worth anywhere near $6M to the Flyers.

 

And if he wants to take $6M from a crap team, more power to him.

[murraycraven]

This team turned the corner when he got here.

 

I thought that Downie turned this season around? 

[OccamsRazor]

If I'm McDaddy's agent, I start out negotiations comparing the Flyers record in 2014 without Andrew, and the record with him.

 

 

Even better.......

 

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/3/26/5548088/andrew-macdonald-analysis-usage-flyers-craig-berube

 

In New York, Andrew MacDonald was right at the top of the Islanders' time on ice charts each night, ranking second in 5v5 time on ice with 19:23 minutes per game, and first in overall minutes per game with a whopping 25:25.

As a Flyer, MacDonald has received almost five less overall minutes per game, dropping to 20:31 on average.

But most of that dropoff has come from a decrease in his special teams role. MacDonald is still receiving 18:10 minutes of 5v5 ice time per game as a Flyer, a slight decrease, but a number that would still rank him in the top-60 among NHL defensemen.

Most importantly, since being acquired by Philadelphia, he has led all Flyers defensemen in even strength ice time.

MacDonald still falls in at third place in total ice time among Philadelphia defensemen. But despite being paired with Luke Schenn on what is supposedly the third pairing, MacDonald is still getting enough additional ice time at 5v5 to rank him ahead of players like Coburn and Streit.

He may not quite be the workhorse he was in New York. But don't let the eye test fool you, MacDonald is not being used by Craig Berube as a typical third pairing defenseman.

Since becoming a Flyer, MacDonald has been given more faceoffs in the offensive zone than the defensive zone, and is facing weaker competition overall.

Also, since the quality of competition metric can be skewed in small samples by one particularly difficult or easy game, it is important to note that as a Flyer, MacDonald has never once ranked higher than third among Philadelphia defensemen in the single game quality of competition statistic. He usually falls in at fourth or fifth.

The Flyers may be giving MacDonald a fair amount of minutes, but he's definitely been more sheltered so far in Philadelphia than in New York.

The forward factor

But how are the Flyers managing to give MacDonald more even strength minutes than any other Philadelphia defenseman, yet still mostly avoiding matchups against top line forwards?

By keeping a very, very close eye on the forward groups that he plays behind.

Berube has been very open that Sean Couturier is his shutdown center, tasked with skating against top lines and preventing them from scoring. And while he hasn't discussed it in detail, it is also very clear that the line centered by Brayden Schenn faces the weakest competition out of the primary three lines, as they are generally used as a one-way scoring threat.

So does MacDonald receive more minutes with the defensively-oriented Couturier line, or Schenn's line of scorers?

Schenn's line, of course. And it's really not close.

A lot more on the subject on link.......

[radoran]

So does MacDonald receive more minutes with the defensively-oriented Couturier line, or Schenn's line of scorers?

Schenn's line, of course. And it's really not close.

 

The thing is, I don't disagree with any of this. It's all demonstrably true.

 

And it's also demonstrably true that, while playing primarily with a "scoring line" he has all of one point in nine games with the Flyers and playing more "special teams" time with an Islanders team that featured Tavares, Okposo and Vanek on the power play, he managed all of 11 PPP in 63 games.

 

Guy deserves mid-$4Ms, tops.

[OccamsRazor]

Guy deserves mid-$4Ms, tops.

 

Yes i agree 4.25 mill tops have to consider his role here so it really depends on what he thinks his worth is and if he is happy with his role here. So far i would venture to think he is happy here....they are winning he is playing well and so a match made in heaven. I think he'll sign for just what we mentioned.

[mojo1917]

He turned down 4 x 4 on the Island, try him at 4.25 with the maximum goal being 4.5 x 4, he wants more than that , good luck on the open market Andrew.

 

If someone wants to pay him stupid money let them.

 

I like his game and the positive effect he's had on L Schenn, I would like to see him resigned.   

[radoran]

I like his game and the positive effect he's had on L Schenn, I would like to see him resigned.

 

Yep, he's definitely someone to target as a signing.

 

Sometimes guys who are "less talented" (drafted lower) are more steady because they're not trying to do too too much. I think that's pretty much MacDonald's resume in a nutshell.

[jammer2]

@radoran  The single point does not exactly have wow factor, but the guy is eating up big minutes at even strength and is not a minus in his 9 games here. Don't know if the is 5 mill valuable, but opponents not scoring when he is on the ice is a step in the right direction. I think the points will come, but if he continues just not allowing any scoring, I'm fine with that.

[Vanflyer]

He should get more than Grossmann, definitely. Which I think puts him squarely in the $4.5M range. Over $5M? I walk.

 

I agree with this. But there is a caveat for me. If and only if (playoffs will tell the true story for me), he continues to be the "right" partner to solidify / elevate Schenn, I have ZERO problem spending and extra 500k to sign him. 

[radoran]

@radoran  The single point does not exactly have wow factor, but the guy is eating up big minutes at even strength and is not a minus in his 9 games here. Don't know if the is 5 mill valuable, but opponents not scoring when he is on the ice is a step in the right direction. I think the points will come, but if he continues just not allowing any scoring, I'm fine with that.

 

I'm 100% fine with it, too - but it does affect his value on the market.

 

How many guys who don't put up points get $5M for blocking shots and helping their partner?

 

I agree with this. But there is a caveat for me. If and only if (playoffs will tell the true story for me), he continues to be the "right" partner to solidify / elevate Schenn, I have ZERO problem spending and extra 500k to sign him. 

 

Yeah, $5M is my top line - but there has to be a smack-me-in-the-face reason to do it. And I'm hoping they get to see what happens in the playoffs.

 

That said, kinda pathetic that they would have to spend $5M to make Schenn "better" - where "better" means four assists (and a combined +5) between them over nine games, though...

 

Quite frankly, I'd rather deal Schenn

[Vanflyer]

I'm 100% fine with it, too - but it does affect his value on the market.

 

How many guys who don't put up points get $5M for blocking shots and helping their partner?

 

 

Yeah, $5M is my top line - but there has to be a smack-me-in-the-face reason to do it. And I'm hoping they get to see what happens in the playoffs.

 

That said, kinda pathetic that they would have to spend $5M to make Schenn "better" - where "better" means four assists (and a combined +5) between them over nine games, though...

 

Quite frankly, I'd rather deal Schenn

 

I could not agree more with all points. Schenn or no Schenn, I still like MacD at 4-4.5 (because of Jammers points and the others in this topic. 

 

While I agree with the deal Schenn part, it would make me sick. JVR is going to put up 30 goals this year. Additionally, he has 4 short handed points. All at the age of 24. I just wonder if JVR would not have flourished under a Berube type of coach, or we just should have waited. I guess the question is, should we wait for Schenn?? 

[radoran]

I could not agree more with all points. Schenn or no Schenn, I still like MacD at 4-4.5 (because of Jammers points and the others in this topic. 

 

I like him in that range. I've come around. And, quite frankly, that's the range that guys like him are in.

 

But giving up an extra $1M-$1.5M on deals like this gets teams into trouble. There has to be a real reason to do it.

 

I agree with 90% of jammer, up and until the point where "I'm" paying $5-6M over five years for "potential" in a 27-year-old.

 

While I agree with the deal Schenn part, it would make me sick.

 

Completely agree. There is an argument to be made on either side. I'm not against riding it out, but I'm still washing the bad taste of the JVR trade out of my mouth.

[jammer2]

@radoran  There are elements of Andrews game that remind me an awful lot of the Chicago's youngster Hjalmarsson.  Both are efficient, smart and rather unspectacular. This is *exactly* the type of d-man I've been clamoring for, a solid skater who can rag the puck out of trouble and make sound, poised plays coming out of their own end.  Hopefully Homer has seen the light and is actively trying to overhaul the whole unit into faster, smarter and more athletic d-men. You will always need bangers like Grossmann, but the need to cheat towards mobility over brawn is the way recent cup winners have chosen, so obviously that is something that would be advantageous to copy.

[flyercanuck]

He turned down 4 x 4 on the Island, try him at 4.25 with the maximum goal being 4.5 x 4, he wants more than that , good luck on the open market Andrew.

 

If someone wants to pay him stupid money let them.

 

I like his game and the positive effect he's had on L Schenn, I would like to see him resigned.   

 

 He turned down 4X4 on the Island, try him at 3.75 X 4 in Philly.

[radoran]

@radoran  There are elements of Andrews game that remind me an awful lot of the Chicago's youngster Hjalmarsson.  Both are efficient, smart and rather unspectacular. This is *exactly* the type of d-man I've been clamoring for, a solid skater who can rag the puck out of trouble and make sound, poised plays coming out of their own end.  Hopefully Homer has seen the light and is actively trying to overhaul the whole unit into faster, smarter and more athletic d-men. You will always need bangers like Grossmann, but the need to cheat towards mobility over brawn is the way recent cup winners have chosen, so obviously that is something that would be advantageous to copy.

 

I don't disagree with any of this.

 

I do disagree with paying that sort of a guy $6M. Or even $5M.

 

And so do the Blackhawks, who have Hjalmarsson signed at $4.1M - starting next year - for five years..

[radoran]

Presented for discussion purposes, an "analysis" of MacDonald's 10 Flyer games by a guy who really, really seems to like Gustafsson:

 

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/3/27/5553356/a-10-game-review-of-andrew-macdonald

 

My biggest issues with the MacDonald acquisition remain the benching of Erik Gustafsson, the loss of draft assets, and the issue of money. Expending assets to acquire yet another passable 5,6,7 d-man while benching the best performing 3rd pairing guy on the roster is inexcusable. And if reports are correct that MacDonald turned down a multi-year contract worth 4 million AAV, its probable that MacDonald is looking for an even better deal from the Flyers. Signing MacDonald to a long term contract with Top-4 money is invariably a mistake. His on-ice results simply do not justify a contract extension worth 4+ AAV.

MacDonald hasn't improved the third pairing since his acquisition. In terms of on-ice results he is a clear downgrade from Erik Gustafsson. In the 59 games before he was scratched, Gustafsson was a +16 in scoring chances, putting up substantially better possession numbers, and was far more effective at preventing chances against. Even more impressive, Gus's scoring chance numbers were good enough for 2nd on the Flyers defense, behind only Kimmo Timonen. Why are the Flyers sitting their most effective third pairing defender in favor of Andy MacDonald?

[OccamsRazor]

Expending assets to acquire yet another passable 5,6,7 d-man while benching the best performing 3rd pairing guy on the roster is inexcusable.

 

My beef as well at the time of his benching he lead the team in +/- which i know isn't the best stat but he also had turned around Schenn's game to....and actaully did it first starting with that Boston game.

 

Those videos are ugly....

[JackStraw]

Presented for discussion purposes, an "analysis" of MacDonald's 10 Flyer games by a guy who really, really seems to like Gustafsson:

 

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/3/27/5553356/a-10-game-review-of-andrew-macdonald

 

If Gus was as good as some people apparently think he is, he would be playing. It's pretty much that simple. My eyes tell me that MacDonald is clearly better than Gus.

[OccamsRazor]

My eyes tell me that MacDonald is clearly better than Gus.

 

I won't speak for anyone else but for now i'd insert him in place of Grossmann for now and would leave Amac and Schenn alone for now....but grossman whom has even been in a walking boot when not in a game should sit and rest. Insert Gus.....why not they have lost 2 straight and need this game in Boston put the more mobile Gus in.

Edited March 27, 2014 by OccamsRazor

[murraycraven]

If Gus was as good as some people apparently think he is, he would be playing. It's pretty much that simple. My eyes tell me that MacDonald is clearly better than Gus.

 

 

I agree Jack...  

 

I am in the minority here but I just dont see Gus being a top 4 dman and at best see him as a 5th/6th - at best.  Frankly, I never rated him as high as most people.   MacDonald is much better and Gus has not made much of the opportunity he was given.   He is already 25 years old and I am not hanging onto hope that he will become a core/everyday player.

Edited March 27, 2014 by murraycraven