Braydenn Schenn to 4th line

[flyercanuck]

Generally, by the 3rd year of the entry level contract, a player with the expectations to be a star 1st liner has better than a 40+ point season, unless their development is curtailed by being constantly used below the 2nd line. That is all I am getting at. I do not see Schenn ever becoming a star 1st liner. 2nd line center is his ceiling in my eyes now.

 

That's fair. And I never thought he was supposed to take Girouxs spot on the top line. All I'm saying is there are plenty of examples of NHLers being inconsistent under the age of 22.  And the odds are that 20g 20a at the grand old age of 22 isn't his ceiling, if you go by most other NHLers careers.

 

.

 

 

Richards and Giroux showed great improvements year by year during their entry level.

 

 Yes. But not fast enough for a lot of Flyer fans who asked what was wrong with them cause they weren't superstars yet.

 

 

[J0e Th0rnton]

 

Generally, by the 3rd year of the entry level contract, a player with the expectations to be a star 1st liner has better than a 40+ point season, unless their development is curtailed by being constantly used below the 2nd line. That is all I am getting at. I do not see Schenn ever becoming a star 1st liner. 2nd line center is his ceiling in my eyes now.

 

That's fair. And I never thought he was supposed to take Girouxs spot on the top line. All I'm saying is there are plenty of examples of NHLers being inconsistent under the age of 22.  And the odds are that 20g 20a at the grand old age of 22 isn't his ceiling, if you go by most other NHLers careers.

 

.

 

 

Richards and Giroux showed great improvements year by year during their entry level.

 

 Yes. But not fast enough for a lot of Flyer fans who asked what was wrong with them cause they weren't superstars yet.

 

 

 

I guess I was expecting him to have a Mike Richards ceiling and show it by now(So were most scouts), but what I am seeing happening is Devin Setoguchi

[radoran]

But I think whoever said he has consistency issues had a legit point. He shows signs of one, but doesn't do it frequently enough to where I'd call him one yet.

 

Sure, he's got consistency issues - many 22yos do as FC notes.

 

His two goals against Buffalo ended a season-high seven game pointless streak.

 

Going into the Olympics he had two goals (0 As) in 15 games.

 

From Nov 25 to Dec 28 he had six assists (0 Gs) in 16 games.

 

Which isn't all that unusual. Take Evander Kane, for example - Oct 24 to Nov 29, 2 goals, four assists in 16 games. Came out of the Olympics with three assists in eight games.

 

Nazem Kadri has six points in his last 14 games. Dec 16 to Jan 14 - 1g 3a in 14 games.

 

What's the commonality with Kane, Kadri and Schenn? In the 2009 draft, Kane was 4, Schenn 5 and Kadri was 7. They were the forwards taken immediately before and after Schenn.

 

Even Matt Duchene had stretches (Nov 10 - Dec 10 11 games, 1 goal, 2 assist; Dec 21 - Jan 21 15 games, 1 G, 9 A (7 pointless games)) where he underperformed. Duchene was 3 in 2009.

 

The commonality with Kane, Kadri and Duchene? All of them play first line minutes (when Kane plays...).

 

You hope to see continued improvement with Schenn. He should be in line for a nice bridge deal to let both sides see what they have over the next 2-3 years.

[fanaticV3.0]

 I, for one..... I mentioned it being part of being a 22 year old NHLer. As Rad mentioned, his 6 game winners, tying him for the team lead, says he's doing something right. And making a positive difference in games.

 

Right. He's doing something right. But is he a bonafide impact player/difference maker? I wouldn't say so and I think that's completely fair. When rad said earlier that he's a little concerned about him, but not too concerned, that's exactly right imo. He has shown some progress, but has he broken out yet? Not really.

[canoli]

He should be in line for a nice bridge deal to let both sides see what they have over the next 2-3 years.

 

so like Couturier's then? $1.5 first year, $2 mil in year 2? Or maybe bump that by 1/2 million each year, recognize his better point production?

 

It sounds like everybody agrees he's coming along ... maybe a little slower than "the best player not in the NHL" ...but he's coming along.

 

I just hope Schenn & Agent aren't hoping for one of those Pay For Future Production deals... GMs have been known to offer those...

 

Is it possible Luke's suckiness rubs off on his brother a bit? Maybe it's not such a good thing having them both.

[fanaticV3.0]

 

Yes, between his first and second year, we saw visible improvement in PPG and icetime. But this year compared to last? Nothing, nor is his defensive game what was advertized.

 

Then maybe the "advertisements" are wrong? I too remember the comparisons to Richards. So-much-so, that I remember (I think it was this board) I actually came out and asked what was his projection again? Because it was very clear whoever compared him to Richards was dead wrong. The longer he was here, it was obvious that was not a natural part of his game.

[fanaticV3.0]

Sure, he's got consistency issues - many 22yos do as FC notes.

 

His two goals against Buffalo ended a season-high seven game pointless streak.

 

Going into the Olympics he had two goals (0 As) in 15 games.

 

From Nov 25 to Dec 28 he had six assists (0 Gs) in 16 games.

 

Which isn't all that unusual. Take Evander Kane, for example - Oct 24 to Nov 29, 2 goals, four assists in 16 games. Came out of the Olympics with three assists in eight games.

 

Nazem Kadri has six points in his last 14 games. Dec 16 to Jan 14 - 1g 3a in 14 games.

 

What's the commonality with Kane, Kadri and Schenn? In the 2009 draft, Kane was 4, Schenn 5 and Kadri was 7. They were the forwards taken immediately before and after Schenn.

 

Even Matt Duchene had stretches (Nov 10 - Dec 10 11 games, 1 goal, 2 assist; Dec 21 - Jan 21 15 games, 1 G, 9 A (7 pointless games)) where he underperformed. Duchene was 3 in 2009.

 

The commonality with Kane, Kadri and Duchene? All of them play first line minutes (when Kane plays...).

 

You hope to see continued improvement with Schenn. He should be in line for a nice bridge deal to let both sides see what they have over the next 2-3 years.

 

I don't have any (major) problems with Schenn. He's inconsistent, but definitely shown signs of life. I will always welcome better play, but I'm not even close to giving up on him.

[radoran]

so like Couturier's then? $1.5 first year, $2 mil in year 2? Or maybe bump that by 1/2 million each year, recognize his better point production?

 

It sounds like everybody agrees he's coming along ... maybe a little slower than "the best player not in the NHL" ...but he's coming along.

 

I just hope Schenn & Agent aren't hoping for one of those Pay For Future Production deals... GMs have been known to offer those...

 

Is it possible Luke's suckiness rubs off on his brother a bit? Maybe it's not such a good thing having them both.

 

Yeah, I would think something like that. He certainly hasn't shown anything like Giroux to warrant a $3+M per annum deal.

 

They could likely get Schenn signed before the deadline at that number - unless they "must" do MacDonald before then.

 

Schenn already got effectively screwed by his agent on "future production" deals because so many of his "bonus" clauses were basically unattainable for anyone not named "Crosby".

 

If they want to test the RFA waters, I certainly let them. I think the Flyers match up to the point where they'd get a 1/2/3 for him ($5M+). And I think that's pretty much The End for Schenn in Philly if he and his agent push it, though. Even if re-signed, he'd have his ticket punched for Edmonton for a skate sharpener and a draft pick.

 

Then maybe the "advertisements" are wrong? I too remember the comparisons to Richards. So-much-so, that I remember (I think it was this board) I actually came out and asked what was his projection again? Because it was very clear whoever compared him to Richards was dead wrong. The longer he was here, it was obvious that was not a natural part of his game.

 

IIRC, Richards was never projected to be a #1 center in the NHL. Certainly never called "best player not in the NHL."

 

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/6083/flyers2003_nhl_entry_draft_review/

 

In selecting Mike Richards, the Flyers made a rather conservative pick with their second first round pick. There is little doubt that if the player stays healthy, he’ll be an NHL player. The question is how good of an NHL player? Will he be a checking line center or a scoring liner?

[flyercanuck]

Right. He's doing something right. But is he a bonafide impact player/difference maker? I wouldn't say so and I think that's completely fair. When rad said earlier that he's a little concerned about him, but not too concerned, that's exactly right imo. He has shown some progress, but has he broken out yet? Not really.

 

 Which was exactly my point when I was comparing him to many other 22 year olds.

[flyercanuck]

Then maybe the "advertisements" are wrong? I too remember the comparisons to Richards. So-much-so, that I remember (I think it was this board) I actually came out and asked what was his projection again? Because it was very clear whoever compared him to Richards was dead wrong. The longer he was here, it was obvious that was not a natural part of his game.

 

 

 I think his "projections" were better offensively, not as good defensively as Richards..

[fanaticV3.0]

Yeah, I would think something like that. He certainly hasn't shown anything like Giroux to warrant a $3+M per annum deal.

 

They could likely get Schenn signed before the deadline at that number - unless they "must" do MacDonald before then.

 

Schenn already got effectively screwed by his agent on "future production" deals because so many of his "bonus" clauses were basically unattainable for anyone not named "Crosby".

 

If they want to test the RFA waters, I certainly let them. I think the Flyers match up to the point where they'd get a 1/2/3 for him ($5M+). And I think that's pretty much The End for Schenn in Philly if he and his agent push it, though. Even if re-signed, he'd have his ticket punched for Edmonton for a skate sharpener and a draft pick.

 

 

IIRC, Richards was never projected to be a #1 center in the NHL. Certainly never called "best player not in the NHL."

 

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/6083/flyers2003_nhl_entry_draft_review/

 

That sounds about right. That's the only thing I'd say in comparing Richards and Schenn too. Neither is a #1, but they're not similar players either.

[fanaticV3.0]

 I think his "projections" were better offensively, not as good defensively as Richards..

 

I remember hearing anything from what you said to he'd replace Richards at both ends of the ice. Defensively speaking, neither is right. He's not a good defensive player, let alone close to the best one on the team (Richards, here at least). Whoever made the comparison to Richards, at least in that aspect of the game, was 100% wrong.

[J0e Th0rnton]

Then maybe the "advertisements" are wrong? I too remember the comparisons to Richards. So-much-so, that I remember (I think it was this board) I actually came out and asked what was his projection again? Because it was very clear whoever compared him to Richards was dead wrong. The longer he was here, it was obvious that was not a natural part of his game.

That's the thing. In juniors he was very good defensively and offensively. Size, skating, good shooter, excellent passer and strong two way play with great hockey sense.

 

Hockey's future had him listed at an 8.5 probability, which is a step below a Datsyuk/Thornton caliber ceiling, but above a Richards type.

 

But his rating also us a C, which means he could drop 2 spots to 3rd line player, 5th/6th defenseman, etc

 

Right now, that looks like the case

 

All I think is his chances

[caluso]

How about the six Game Winning Goals Schenn has this season?

 

Tied for the team lead with some guy named "Giroux."

game winning goals is the most useless stat in hockey.

 

look at his impact, how he plays on the ice.

[radoran]

game winning goals is the most useless stat in hockey.

 

look at his impact, how he plays on the ice.

 

Keep reading...

[Vanflyer]

when richards played, he made a difference on the ice. it was off the ice, that he had issues.

 

I took Richards until his 3rd FULL season before he broke the 20 goal mark. This is schenn's first full season (47 gp first year flyers, 57 games played last year), and he has hit that mark. I know ritchie did allot of other things away from the scoreboard, but to write Schenn off is ridiculous. Also, since moving to LA- while his role has been different there, he has been underwhelming to me. Every year he is declining in his production. 

 

I will take a 20 / 20 22 year old and bide my time. 

[radoran]

I will take a 20 / 20 22 year old and bide my time. 

 

There are 91 forwards in the league who currently have 20 or more goals. Another 24 have 18 or 19.

 

Roughs out to less than four 18-19-20-goal scorers per team in the NHL.

 

The Flyers have six 20-goal guys, with VLC at 19 a seventh. Almost double the league average.

 

Right away, that's the value of Schenn to this team rightnow and there is no reason to think that at 22 he's done progressing his development.

 

If you get the right deal, if the player demands too much, if some other GM throws stupid money at him? Well, then you look to maximize the value on your asset.

 

And that asset has some considerable value.

[Vanflyer]

If you get the right deal, if the player demands too much, if some other GM throws stupid money at him? Well, then you look to maximize the value on your asset.

 

And that asset has some considerable value.

 

I don't disagree. But I will use JVR - L. Schenn as an example of that. I just hate personally giving up on youth. Also, on your stats, it would be interesting to see how many of those you cite are 22 years old? 

Edited April 8, 2014 by Vanflyer

[mojo1917]

RE: Brayden Schenn, I  think that playing for a few nights on the 4th line isn't the same thing as being on the road out of town,  I don't know if the kid will be a super-star, but there are nights when he looks like he could be, and nights he looks like he'll be a good player, not too many where , i think he's a bust.

 

he's got 20 goals this year, i would like to see some more assists. I still think he could protect the puck better or be harder on his skates, seems like he still has some trouble with maintaining possession after contact....  I do like large portions of his game though, he finds space, he does make some nifty passes and has a sweet little pick pocket move he hits about 25% of the time on tie ups behind the opposing goalie where he has the puck on his stick with some speed and some options.

 

he's improved this year on his faceoffs, he's scored, he's played like a young player, with some talent.   I'm not ready to call him a bust.

[doom88]

Nothing would kill his development faster than rotting on the energy line. Let Vinny take his shifts off down there and spot PP duty. Schenn needs the time and patience to develop, and that only comes with legitimate on ice situations. Take the lumps with the hopes of later fortune (deferred gratification anyone?) like every other team that cultivates young talent.

Or worse yet, trade him, and watch him shine on another team.

[King Knut]

The 2nd line does okay and I'm sure Vinny would make them better, but how much better would he make them compared to how muh worse braydem would make the fourth line?

Now alternatively Vinny makes the 4th line ridiculously better than Schenn would. They've been playing like a legit scoring line since he took the middle for them. ...No matter who the hell he's playing with.

3 decent scoring lines and a dangerous shut down line as well is way better than 2 very good scoring lines and a shut down line because two very good lines can only account for 30 minutes or so out of 60. Playing Vinny on 4th gives you 40 minutes per game of scoring threats. Cover the last 15 with Coots' line amd special teams and overall, It's just smarter coverage.

Vinny on the 4th improves the overall percentage of game minutes in which we're icing a quality line.

That's pretty awesome.

Not that I'm a Schenn supporter per se. As I've said elsewhere, is just about out up or shut up time for Brayden.

@caluso

I disagree. Schenn, and not Vinnie, is part of the future of the team. We aren't winning the cup this year. Developing Schenn is way more important than helping some guy (who was bought out by his last team for not earning his keep) be less pouty.

[King Knut]

I agree, but schenn's got about 10-12 months to really start to play more consistently well or we're going to have legit concerns about his progress.

He came into the pros young, and everyone's different, but he's getting at that age when we start to see what kind of players guys are gonna be. BSchenn is a good player. I'm still holding out hope for "great" sometime soon.

Nothing would kill his development faster than rotting on the energy line. Let Vinny take his shifts off down there and spot PP duty. Schenn needs the time and patience to develop, and that only comes with legitimate on ice situations. Take the lumps with the hopes of later fortune (deferred gratification anyone?) like every other team that cultivates young talent.

Or worse yet, trade him, and watch him shine on another team.

[ruxpin]

The 2nd line does okay and I'm sure Vinny would make them better, but how much better would he make them compared to how muh worse braydem would make the fourth line?

Now alternatively Vinny makes the 4th line ridiculously better than Schenn would. They've been playing like a legit scoring line since he took the middle for them. ...No matter who the hell he's playing with.

3 decent scoring lines and a dangerous shut down line as well is way better than 2 very good scoring lines and a shut down line because two very good lines can only account for 30 minutes or so out of 60. Playing Vinny on 4th gives you 40 minutes per game of scoring threats. Cover the last 15 with Coots' line amd special teams and overall, It's just smarter coverage.

Vinny on the 4th improves the overall percentage of game minutes in which we're icing a quality line.

That's pretty awesome.

Not that I'm a Schenn supporter per se. As I've said elsewhere, is just about out up or shut up time for Brayden.

Really excellent post. The first two paragraphs, in particular, really make some terrific points. Nicely said!

[Vanflyer]

Not that I'm a Schenn supporter per se. As I've said elsewhere, is just about out up or shut up time for Brayden.

 

I just don't get this fatality approach. He had a very good game. More shots than vinny, same fo % no giveaways. 5 hits (a couple of them on the large side). Yet people want to say put up or shut-up. 

 

The way its rolling now, its fine. If we have anything to biotch about its the team readiness, lack of in game focus, and support. Schenn is the least of our worries. 

 

That said, I do see that VLC is skating allot more better than before AND creating chances nearly every time he is on the ice. Not sure if its the kick in the teeth or the move back to center, but I will acknowledge he is earning his do-re-mi these days. 

[ruxpin]

I just don't get this fatality approach. He had a very good game. More shots than vinny, same fo % no giveaways. 5 hits (a couple of them on the large side). Yet people want to say put up or shut-up.

The way its rolling now, its fine. If we have anything to biotch about its the team readiness, lack of in game focus, and support. Schenn is the least of our worries.

That said, I do see that VLC is skating allot more better than before AND creating chances nearly every time he is on the ice. Not sure if its the kick in the teeth or the move back to center, but I will acknowledge he is earning his do-re-mi these days.

Agreed. Although my phone still suggests "sucks" as the next word every time I type "VLC."